EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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10-23-2020, 09:56 AM
chhablsa

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.

I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.

There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.

Thank You Q - Yourself, Spec, YTeleven, redsox, Kanmani you all are the studded stars of this forum. Even though my wait (like many of us) for GC is forever, I always find my solace here on this forum. "Turbulent_Dragonfly" inspired me to come out of my "read only" mode by delivering > 200 messages in a year, that rate is actually "turbulent fast". :)
After COVID first time I am hopeful that I may get GC in this lifetime and if a per country bill passes then that day will be true for many of us. Fingers crossed
10-23-2020, 01:51 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Some chatter about aggressive movement of dates in Nov bulletin:

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status...06680431329280

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1319651350532247552
10-23-2020, 01:54 PM
mesan123

Quote:

Originally Posted by montyp80

I had submitted my 485 application package on Oct 5th, USCIS received on Oct 6th. On Oct 19th I received text notifications with case numbers for all 3, 485, 131 and 765. USCIS tracker shows that the applications were received and notices are in the mail.

Congratulations. Could let us know Which service center? I m guessing your date was current and filed 485 and not a downgrade?
10-23-2020, 03:25 PM
tomhagen

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Some chatter about aggressive movement of dates in Nov bulletin:

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status...06680431329280

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1319651350532247552

18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar :) .. That will be a blessing of the century
10-23-2020, 03:44 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by tomhagen

18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar :) .. That will be a blessing of the century

Yeah I am a bit surprised that Siskind supported that 18 month prediction. He is usually cagey about making VB date movement predictions.
10-23-2020, 04:14 PM
redsox2009

Quote:

Originally Posted by richie.rich

One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?

“
Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.”

If you are downgrading with an existing approved EB-2 then you have to file as an amendment. On the I-140 application Part2, Checkbox in Part 1.e should be selected and Part 2a should be selected and provide old EB2 Approved Case number.

The rest of the required info is straight forward as old I-140.
10-23-2020, 04:23 PM
mcmilers

I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.
10-23-2020, 04:28 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by mcmilers

I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.

Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.
10-23-2020, 04:31 PM
incredible

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.

I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
10-23-2020, 04:35 PM
newyorker123

Gurus,
Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.
10-23-2020, 05:00 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by incredible

I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

Wow, that is pretty optimistic! 5+ month movement will be insane and obviously welcome!
10-23-2020, 05:31 PM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by newyorker123

Gurus,
Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.

If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.
10-23-2020, 06:09 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by vsivarama

If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.

And NIW is only applicable if you file for EB2.
10-23-2020, 08:43 PM
AlmostThere

Gurus,

Do you know anything about email from NVC for LIVAOS IV fee.
Does that tell anything about FAD?
10-25-2020, 10:08 AM
HarepathekaIntezar

My apologies if this has already been answered. What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.
10-26-2020, 08:18 AM
HarepathekaIntezar

How will the Spillover be distributed?

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

The purpose of having 2 dates is to avoid uncertainity or frequent retrogression of FAD.. FD can move back and forth but FAD should have only forward movement except during last month of the FY.

What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.
10-26-2020, 11:31 AM
idliman

Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?
10-26-2020, 01:28 PM
GCMirage

Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?
10-26-2020, 01:50 PM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by Viking

I have seen a lot of folks suggesting keeping H1B status active after getting EAD (pending I-485). The reason I heard is the worst-case scenario if I-485 is denied you go out of status from the day you filed I-485. Can someone provide more perspective, because getting a job with H1B is very very difficult and whats are some other considerations if even after getting EAD you want to keep H1B. Also how it is quite often to get I-485 rejected if you move jobs?

I am at similar point -I applied concurrently this October first time.
For me, I am trying to gain some statistical data by general googling. main questions that I am trying to get answered
1) How likely is it that I-485 will be denied ?
2) What are major reasons for I-485 denials?

No real statistics on offer anywhere; but denial rates are very low in EB categories in general.
10-26-2020, 01:58 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by GCMirage

Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM as the work is in the national interest of the US. There is no special quota and it also comes under the EB2-I so you won't get any benefit of filing early. There is no requirement to do that while downgrading to EB3. You can't downgrade an EB2-NIW petition to EB3 as there is no underlying PERM.

https://www.visalaw.com/downgrading-...ed-immigrants/
10-26-2020, 02:00 PM
inspired_p

How soon should I expect the premium processing check cashed ?
I assume the premium processing clock
Starts on the date of receipt number generation ?
10-26-2020, 05:18 PM
gcconnect

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?
10-26-2020, 05:38 PM
Moveon

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .
10-26-2020, 05:47 PM
rabp77

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moveon

That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .

i think this is probably one of the latest in the month its come out. It should come out this week, we have never had an instance that i know of where the visa bulletin has not be published in the prior month. But its unusual times, and nothing is surprising anymore :-).
10-26-2020, 06:03 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

https://twitter.com/ReichlinMelnick/...05551262097408

This is the kind of 'Service' that is being provided by USCIS. They need to drop the S at the end, pathetic morons. All they know to do is cash our checks and then deny the services.
10-26-2020, 06:18 PM
android09

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

I wonder if it's one of 3 cases:

1. Lets move the dates extensively for a month and then move to pull the Filing dates back again to get a pipeline of cases to process.

2. We need the money flowing given other applications have sort of curtailed and we really need to keep this funding going.

3. We really have green cards to give and the dates lend themselves to be moved forward significantly to help people waiting for years.
10-26-2020, 06:36 PM
gc_dedo

Gurus,

Please comment.

https://ambals.blogspot.com/2020/10/...l#comment-form

It says, if USCIS is able to process the cases at scale, there will not be spillover from EB4/5/1 to EB2/3.
10-26-2020, 07:36 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

William Stock preposterously predicting India to move to January 2016, please ignore that. Seems like clickbait.

Siskind replying:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320858448901361669
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320862173975977987

@gsiskind
Replying to @wstock215 and @cyrusmehta
I don't even want to put my negative prediction out lest the messenger get blamed. I see modest improvement in EB-2 India and bad news for EB-3 India. But Bill is one of my more pessimistic friends and I would very much like things to play out as he's forecasting.

@gsiskind
Replying to @ejtaub
Or Charlie knows there is a tsunami of applications coming this week and wants as accurate an assessment of demand as possible.
10-26-2020, 07:49 PM
YTeleven

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..
10-26-2020, 10:27 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by YTeleven

I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..

It's good that USPS has ramped up operations to support the extraordinary number of mail-in ballots being pushed through. Will help in mailing all those green cards out, eh? :p
10-27-2020, 09:09 AM
smuggymba

1 Attachment(s)

Just for fun, Q can delete if irrelevant.

Attachment 1716
10-27-2020, 10:02 AM
aGCHopefull

Hello!!

Question for all who have filed this month, have you gotten the receipt yet?
10-27-2020, 10:42 AM
inspired_p

Sorry it was a bad copy paste , I think that is what the lawyer was questioning; USCIS rejected I-765 but accepted everything else as if the no fees are in effect
10-27-2020, 10:45 AM
rohanvus

Quote:

Originally Posted by inspired_p

Filed concurrently last week, received I-140 receipt # and both checks (485 and I-140 premium processing ) debited from bank today

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?
10-27-2020, 10:54 AM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by rohanvus

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

No. I was in a unique position where PERM was approved but 140 was not filed yet; so I had the option of concurrent filing with premium without any issues
10-27-2020, 11:05 AM
inspired_p

Quote:

Originally Posted by rohanvus

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

But What I understand , premium is allowed for downgrade applications as well , just there is a possibility of USCIS not finding the original PERM quick enough to complete the adjudication in the 15 calendar window.
10-27-2020, 11:10 AM
2011Feb

Quote:

Originally Posted by aGCHopefull

Hello!!

Question for all who have filed this month, have you gotten the receipt yet?

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.
10-27-2020, 01:30 PM
gcconnect

Quote:

Originally Posted by Positive

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

Any source for downgrade new vs amend confusion? I am thinking due to high Volume, its taking time and will get clarity in couple of weeks
10-27-2020, 01:30 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by Positive

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

That is a whole lot of conjecture in one post. Too many "I think"s, so unless there is documentary evidence that this is actually happening, we need to be careful not to unnecessarily worry everyone.
10-27-2020, 01:34 PM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcconnect

Any source for downgrade new vs amend confusion? I am thinking due to high Volume, its taking time and will get clarity in couple of weeks

That in my opinion too, is the safe assumption. I mean, EB3 just got moved to 2015. There's got to be thousands of applications filed by eligible applicants.

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