EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the new EB3-I: EB2-I! As always, we Indians have screwed up the system for ourselves. (Yes, I am aware there are a lot of flaws but somehow every other country except India managed not to overload the system. And you are delusional if you think India has a higher number of skilled migrants to offer the US as compared to all other nations.)

I think CO should repeat 2007 and make all categories current since USCIS refuses to give him porting numbers. Porting numbers are crucial to take stock of the situation. If you ignore SOFAD for a second, I'm pretty sure that all of India's 2.8K EB2 quota is being eaten up by porters. How is this a tenable or sensible system?

There will undoubtedly be those who think the situation as not as dour as I make it out to be. But porting (both I and ROW) only has one direction to go - UP. Think of all the EB3s stuck in the system.

EDIT: Interesting that the Indian IT companies pay the lowest salaries out of the top 25 H1B corporate applicants:

http://www.myvisajobs.com/Reports/To...-2011.aspx?P=1

This includes all the big IT shops: Infy, Wipro, TCS, Patni, Cognizant, L&T Infotech, Satyam, UST Global (seems Indian too). I am sure the high salaries are because they are getting the world's best and the brightest engineers from India. (sarcasm) I was looking at Wikipedia's H1B stats and applications from Indian IT shops have gone down significantly. I bet that L1 apps from the same employers have gone up commensurately. Of course, USCIS does not make those statistics public.

I'm also hoping that there will be some juicy material to read from the Infosys lawsuit. Narayana Murthy's admonishments to Indians to do better ring a bit hollow when his business is founded on body-shopping. He complains about the lack of Indian PhDs in Computer Science. But what opportunities does the Indian IT industry offer them?

But then overall isn't the point spec. This is october and the point is - are dates set in October based on Monthly quota?

I think your rest of the talk about demand data vs 485 data - while I understand that difference - is less relevant.

We can always agree to disagree. But this is quite an objective matter. The date movement is irrational and meant to scare EB2I applicants. Nothing else nothing more. At the least it is stupid application of whatever logic CO is trying to sell others. In the larger scheme - the fundamentals are strong enough to move EB2IC date into late 2008 or early 2009 by Sep 2013. So this date movement is absolutely malicious or plain stupid.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

They may have exceeded the monthly allocation of 3.1k in the first 9 months slightly in some months, but clearly the overall EB2-WW final visa numbers say they did not on average exceed the number available to them.

The USCIS Inventory represents all eligible cases in progress at any one time. Since an I-485 might take 4-6 months to process, it represents far more than the numbers that might be approved in any one month.

For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory and Demand data are chalk and cheese.

Look at the numbers in the Inventory. They don't bear any resemblance to the true numbers for EB2-WW. You wouldn't think there were more than 500-600 EB2-WW cases a month if you believed it. Similarly, you would have to believe there were only about 1,400 EB1 cases per month.

In general, EB2-WW has started the FY slowly and built up over the course of the year.

As for EB2-I movements in previous FY, see my addition to my previous post.

Enough I think. If we hold different views on the subject - so be it.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

In the larger scheme - the fundamentals are strong enough to move EB2IC date into late 2008 or early 2009 by Sep 2013.

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Q,

I am not sure how you think that.

Even without any further porting numbers than are currently in the Demand Data, EB2-I alone needs 20k to clear 2008 cases. EB2-IC needs 24k on the same basis.

That is over 18k plus further porting needed as spillover to clear 2008 PDs.

EB1 approvals have returned near to former levels.

EB5 approvals continue to increase.

In FY2013, EB2-WW has at least a further 6k demand over the normal run rate to accommodate within their allocation. It is possible that USCIS will just allow a bigger backlog.

EB4 is a complete unknown.

It would be extremely difficult to find the required spillover numbers in FY2013 IMO to clear 2008 cases.

If the dates end in early 2008, it would be a pretty good outcome.

It is a great shame (and a little surprising) that CO chose not to put in any comments about EB Cut Off Date movements for the year in the October VB, especially considering what he dis to them. I guess he wants another month to see what happens.

This appears to be the right.

By April/May 2013, the dates will move back to somewhere in 2008- early/mid/late- take your pick.

4-5 years time period for Eb2-I- that is the average norm. Meanwhile EADs will be provided in spurts just to keep the inventory and keep UCIS busy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

I am not sure how you think that.

Even without any further porting numbers than are currently in the Demand Data, EB2-I alone needs 20k to clear 2008 cases. EB2-IC needs 24k on the same basis.

That is over 18k plus further porting needed as spillover to clear 2008 PDs.

EB1 approvals have returned near to former levels.

EB5 approvals continue to increase.

In FY2013, EB2-WW has at least a further 6k demand over the normal run rate to accommodate within their allocation. It is possible that USCIS will just allow a bigger backlog.

EB4 is a complete unknown.

It would be extremely difficult to find the required spillover numbers in FY2013 IMO to clear 2008 cases.

If the dates end in early 2008, it would be a pretty good outcome.

It is a great shame (and a little surprising) that CO chose not to put in any comments about EB Cut Off Date movements for the year in the October VB, especially considering what he dis to them. I guess he wants another month to see what happens.

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Hi gurus, My PD is 29Aug2007, any expert guess please.

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Originally Posted by venoo_d

Hi gurus, My PD is 29Aug2007, any expert guess please.

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Well, I'm not an expert. But my PD is close to yours. And in my opinion, I think my PD will become current only in 3rd Q (Apr, 2013).

Please help me understand the COD for ROW. If I understand the country caps correctly, EACH country gets 7% of the total visas, and ROW is NOT treated as ONE bucket, correct? If so, then is it really possible that EACH country in ROW has so many applications that EACH country needed to have a COD date established? meaning, for example, applicants from say Japan exceeded 7% and applicants from Jamaica also exceeded 7%? I feel like ROW is being treated as a bucket, because I highly doubt that applicants from MY country have exceeded 7% that they needed to apply cut off date to my country.

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Originally Posted by tackle

Well, I'm not an expert. But my PD is close to yours. And in my opinion, I think my PD will become current only in 3rd Q (Apr, 2013).

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Thank you.

Small attempt to estimate EB3I porting from Demand Data released by DOS each month. In September 2011 when DD for October 2011 was released EB3I pending inventory was 54000, EB3I Inventory came down to 47550 for October 2012 DD, EB2I dates retrogressed from June2012 so who ever was eligible must have ported before Jun2012 which is total of 9 months starting Sep2011-May2012, taking that as base figure tried to calculate how much porting we could see for PDs between Jan2003-Aug2007 in FY2013, ignoring DD for PDs prior to Jan2003 as EB3I date is 2002 there may be very few who might port.

DD points to at least 5-6k porting in 12 months, below calculation is for 13 months(Sept2011-Sept2012).

PD --------------Oct2011-------Oct2012------Porting Sept-May2012---------Per Month -------Jun-Sep2012
Prior To---------VB DD----------VB DD-----------(9 months)---------------------Porting/9----------(Estimate)
Jan2004--------11750-----------11025-----------725----------------------------------81--------------------324
Jan2005--------13575-----------12425---------1150--------------------------------127--------------------508
Jan2006----------8825------------8125-----------700----------------------------------78--------------------312
Jan2007--------10775------------9850-----------925---------------------------------103-------------------412
Jan2008----------4150------------3650-----------500----------------------------------55--------------------220
Total--------------49075----------45075---------4000--------------------------------444------------------1776

There was 4 month retrogression from June-August(2012) so any porting applications(inter filing with USCIS) filed would not show up in Demand Data , all these(porting eligible with PD prior to Sep 2004) will be pre-adjudicated starting October 2012.Now FY2013 started with Sept 2004, so in October if we go by above estimated Porting numbers then DOS might get 324+338(2/3 of 508 as EB2I PD is Sept2004)--->662 additional porting numbers from USCIS which might be ready for approval starting November 2012.

In addition to these starting October 2012 there will be new Porting applications(who have started process and waiting for I-140 approvals),that will also have some with PDs prior to Sep 2004. This is not to paint grim picture(which is already) but an attempt from my side to expect what we might see in next 6-9 months.I believe if any movement(right now i am expecting there will be) past 2006 it will happen only in Q4. If porting levels stays below 1500 for first 6 months(Oct2012-Mar2012) then dates might move past 2006 in Q3 itself.

As some one earlier mentioned in this thread "lets hope for best and prepare for worst".

Is this porting new phenomenon ? and not there last year? or before last?

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Originally Posted by openaccount

Small attempt to estimate EB3I porting from Demand Data released by DOS each month. In September 2011 when DD for October 2011 was released EB3I pending inventory was 54000, EB3I Inventory came down to 47550 for October 2012 DD, EB2I dates retrogressed from June2012 so who ever was eligible must have ported before Jun2012 which is total of 9 months starting Sep2011-May2012, taking that as base figure tried to calculate how much porting we could see for PDs between Jan2003-Aug2007 in FY2013, ignoring DD for PDs prior to Jan2003 as EB3I date is 2002 there may be very few who might port.

DD points to at least 5-6k porting in 12 months, below calculation is for 13 months(Sept2011-Sept2012).

PD --------------Oct2011-------Oct2012------Porting Sept-May2012---------Per Month -------Jun-Sep2012
Prior To---------VB DD----------VB DD-----------(9 months)---------------------Porting/9----------(Estimate)
Jan2004--------11750-----------11025-----------725----------------------------------81--------------------324
Jan2005--------13575-----------12425---------1150--------------------------------127--------------------508
Jan2006----------8825------------8125-----------700----------------------------------78--------------------312
Jan2007--------10775------------9850-----------925---------------------------------103-------------------412
Jan2008----------4150------------3650-----------500----------------------------------55--------------------220
Total--------------49075----------45075---------4000--------------------------------444------------------1776

There was 4 month retrogression from June-August(2012) so any porting applications(inter filing with USCIS) filed would not show up in Demand Data , all these(porting eligible with PD prior to Sep 2004) will be pre-adjudicated starting October 2012.Now FY2013 started with Sept 2004, so in October if we go by above estimated Porting numbers then DOS might get 324+338(2/3 of 508 as EB2I PD is Sept2004)--->662 additional porting numbers from USCIS which might be ready for approval starting November 2012.

In addition to these starting October 2012 there will be new Porting applications(who have started process and waiting for I-140 approvals),that will also have some with PDs prior to Sep 2004. This is not to paint grim picture(which is already) but an attempt from my side to expect what we might see in next 6-9 months.I believe if any movement(right now i am expecting there will be) past 2006 it will happen only in Q4. If porting levels stays below 1500 for first 6 months(Oct2012-Mar2012) then dates might move past 2006 in Q3 itself.

As some one earlier mentioned in this thread "lets hope for best and prepare for worst".

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

Is this porting new phenomenon ? and not there last year? or before last?

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No this not new it is happening for past 4 years(more after 2007 when all categories were made Current) but in last 2-3 years it has increased every year, in FY2012 porting was at peak if there was no retrogression from Jun2012 we could have easily seen couple of thousand more porting from EB3-EB21 in those 4 months.

It is hard for me to believe that they have pre-adjudicated (whatever that means) 96% of 2008 and 81% of 2009 cases. Does this mean they have touched it once and kept it aside or they are all good to go once visa number becomes available? I see people from 2007 getting RFE now, so it is hard for me to believe that they have processed all these applications.

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Originally Posted by GhostWriter

Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. (Does not account for porting, that could change the numbers below especially for 2007).

EB2-I
2007 - 85% (DD-4150, Inv-4904)
2008 - 96% (DD-14500, Inv-15136)
2009 - 81% (DD-10900, Inv-13429)
2010 - 63% (DD-3100, Inv-4912)

EB2-C
2007 - 81% (DD-850, Inv-1046)
2008 - 95% (DD-3150, Inv-3311)
2009 - 79% (DD-2300, Inv-2913)
2010 - 59% (DD-575, Inv-975)

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by bvsamrat

Is this porting new phenomenon ? and not there last year? or before last?

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I am not sure how much of a porting went on before 2007 (Labor substitution was an easier option). It has been "noticeable" since 2007..
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This year would be something to watch out for, for people willing to port. If the SO is low and if the EB2 - I dates do not move ahead significantly this year, you would see a drop in porting numbers.

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Originally Posted by ChampU

This year would be something to watch out for, for people willing to port. If the SO is low and if the EB2 - I dates do not move ahead significantly this year, you would see a drop in porting numbers.

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This is possible only if EB2I stays at Sep-Dec2004 until Aug 2013 and SO is applied only in last 2 months(Aug,Sep). If CO follows this approach then Oct2013 would start with a date somewhere in 2004/2005 as all Porting applications(PDs after 2004) who have I-140 approved and sent interfiling letter to USCIS would be pre-ajudicated by OCT2013 as dates moved beyond 2004 in Aug/Sept2013.

I don't think CO would do that if he is planning to do so then i would say he is an idiot who acts in aggressive manner whether it is moving dates forward or backward.

Given porting is the way to go for EB3, ideally there should be no visas that get allocated to EB3 and those EB3 visa numbers can help compensate for the porting influx in EB2-I.

geterdone, since these numbers show up in demand data so that means the latter (i.e. all good to go except for a visa number). USCIS has been processing about 5-6K EB2-I cases per month for last 6+ months and the total inventory for EB2-I is 38K for PDs 2007-2010. Of course the calculation is only as good as the inventory or demand data.

Also for 2007 the calucaltion is probably incorrect. In Sep demand data there were 4900 cases for all PDs of 2007 and before. In October demand data there are 1350 cases for 2006 and before and 4150 cases strictly for 2007 PDs. It is hard to beleive that percentage of cases processed would be higher for 2008 than 2007 both for India and China even after 6-8 months of filing. The addition of porting cases for 2007 to demand data should have increased the percentage for 2007. Probably some of the 2007 cases in the inventory were old and complicated cases and most of the newly filed 2007 cases in 2011 have been approved. I do not have the answer to this mystery.

For 2008, 2009 and 2010 the numbers have been gradually increasing every month and i do have more confidence in them.

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Originally Posted by geterdone

It is hard for me to believe that they have pre-adjudicated (whatever that means) 96% of 2008 and 81% of 2009 cases. Does this mean they have touched it once and kept it aside or they are all good to go once visa number becomes available? I see people from 2007 getting RFE now, so it is hard for me to believe that they have processed all these applications.

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What's really frustrating is that CO hasn't provided any notes. It's absolutely shameful on his part to say "every effort will be made for the cut off date to reach May 2010 by spring 2013" and then not say anything why he won't do that.

I think we deserve at least an explanation(especially after he gives false hopes) and not leave us to just rely on "meeting notes" from AILA meetings with CO.

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Originally Posted by openaccount

This is possible only if EB2I stays at Sep-Dec2004 until Aug 2013 and SO is applied only in last 2 months(Aug,Sep). If CO follows this approach then Oct2013 would start with a date somewhere in 2004/2005 as all Porting applications(PDs after 2004) who have I-140 approved and sent interfiling letter to USCIS would be pre-ajudicated by OCT2013 as dates moved beyond 2004 in Aug/Sept2013.

I don't think CO would do that if he is planning to do so then i would say he is an idiot who acts in aggressive manner whether it is moving dates forward or backward.

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I agree. It is highly unlikely that the numbers stay in 2004/2005. What I want to say is the rapid movement of EB2 in FY-2012 would have prompted the urgency of the EB3-EB2 upgrades.. a slow moving EB2 will lessen the incentive to the upgrade. As small as it maybe, it is still a risk to file for a new PERM and I-140 and unless the reward is immediate,it may not be worth the risk.

Assuming that EB2-I gets about 10-12k (Regular 2.8k+ SO of 7-9k) in FY2013,

If by the end of FY-2013, the dates stay in 2004/2005, it would mean that roughly 10-12k porting applications take up the EB2 numbers in FY 2013. That would mean that roughly 1 in every 3 EB3 applications ( there are 30k EB3 applications in 2003-2005) have ported, which is unusually high considering the state of the economy.. So it is highly unlikely that the dates would stay there..

If the dates stay in 2006, roughly 1k applications will take care of EB2 backlog in inventory numbers and roughly 9-11k applications would go to EB3-EB2 upgrades which means 1 in every 4 applications have ported, which is still high.

If the dates move to mid-2007, 8k applications go to upgrades (roughly 1 in 5) and 2-4k applications go to "original EB2", which is a nightmarish but a plausible scenario..

If dates move to end of 2007, the two categories share a 50-50 load.6k porting, 6k to EB2.. which I think is a likely scenario..

A move to mid-2008 would mean that "original EB2" applicants would take up roughly 12k applications and there is no room to account for porting, unless EB2-I gets anymore than the estimated 10-12k visas. Also, a move to mid-2008 also brings in roughly 2k applications from EB2-C in the picture..

By late Q2, early Q3 the demand for EB2-ROW will become clear. We can then revise the SO and date movement estimates.. For now, my estimate is end of 2007 for end of FY-2013..

to rub salt on the wounds of retrogressing PD to 2004; USCIS approved my i140 eb2 in 26 days. It took me only 3 months for perm + i140 and looks like +7 years to get GC.

Once I got email from attorney I said, USCIS should have approved my i140 after 5 years. At least I woild enjoy concurrent filing; huh!!

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Originally Posted by vrs7734

to rub salt on the wounds of retrogressing PD to 2004; USCIS approved my i140 eb2 in 26 days. It took me only 3 months for perm + i140 and looks like +7 years to get GC.

Once I got email from attorney I said, USCIS should have approved my i140 after 5 years. At least I woild enjoy concurrent filing; huh!!

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It's useful to have an approved I140, so that your PD is "finalized" so even if you end up moving to another company and redo PERM and I140, you can use your PD from previous employer.

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Originally Posted by ihp62as

Please help me understand the COD for ROW. If I understand the country caps correctly, EACH country gets 7% of the total visas, and ROW is NOT treated as ONE bucket, correct? If so, then is it really possible that EACH country in ROW has so many applications that EACH country needed to have a COD date established? meaning, for example, applicants from say Japan exceeded 7% and applicants from Jamaica also exceeded 7%? I feel like ROW is being treated as a bucket, because I highly doubt that applicants from MY country have exceeded 7% that they needed to apply cut off date to my country.

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ROW is both treated and not treated as one bucket simultaneously. Yes, they allow each country to reach 7% before retrogressing it, but they also limit the total number of visas to all non retrogressed countries to N = 40K - 2.8K x # of retrogressed countries, (in this case there are 2 retrogressed countries, I & C, so roughly 34.4K available to ROW, M & P). So, in this case, a whole bunch of countries have not reached 7% but together they've exceeded 34.4K in visa numbers.

A side issue, is that the 2012 'fiasco' led to the USCIS over-issuing visa numbers to EB2I and C, so ROW didn't actually get the full 34.4K available for that year.

Still, rest assured, ROW will move forward quickly over the next couple of months and you will have no COD soon. Enjoy your green card when that happens and spare a thought for the rest of us when you cast your vote at the 2018 elections.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

Relax. It is not going to take 7 years for you. In a sense, Q is right that the *long term* wait time should be 4 years. The queue will adjust itself. Many people will leave, EB1 will become stricter, job market will deflate after the elections etc. I have seen all phases of the PD. Getting stuck, seriously flying ahead, severely getting back etc.

You can also bet that the next time the DOS faces a demand cliff (PD at May 1, 2010), they will advance the PD rapidly *yet again*. Also, EB3-I is going to be depleted by approximately 24K in the next 4 years (3K regular + 3K porting). That queue will start going faster and porting won't be a factor as much.

And there is always a very good possibility for something like HR 3012 becoming law. I am not giving up on it. It's only a matter of time before a sensible bill like that becomes law.

In short, the long term prospects are there. I would just advice you to concentrate on your job and leave the immigration worries for a later day. It's too early for you, and you may not suffer at all.

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Good post. We really need some positive posts like this- specially these days. As we know eventually it may take four, six or more years and we can't control that. But posts like this definitely help keeping our sights on bigger picture.

Spec, Any predictions/thoughts based on Oct VB and Demand data?

Quoting a comment from a Trackitt thread,
"After looking at the DD and the 485 inventory the only logical cause for the state dept to bring the PD to 2004 must be that they have seen exponential I 140 filings dated 2004, 2005 and 2006 that are not reflected in the DD and will soon be. I guess porting EB3- EB2 before 2007 must have accelerated in the past few months"

This seems to be a good logic, but harsh to hear. Does CO have any data on info of "pending upgrades" (from AILA notes, it seems like USCIS doesn't provide CO that data?). Also from the pending I140 inventory, is there a way to guesstimate the number of porting cases.

It could be possible that after the rapid EB2 movement last year, many EB3 started porting or prepare themselves to be in a position to port soon. If that's the case, the past porting figures would be much lower than the future demand from ported cases. :(

Also, it might be safe to assume EB3 porter on average consumes 3-4 visas (assuming 1 for spouse and 1-2 for kids). Relatively speaking, many EB2 folks might be relatively younger and not have kids.

I don't think they are this scientific about it.

I believe, CO will now go back to his annual SO strategy since his buffer kitty is full. And hence, going back to his old style of opening account very cautiously, and then increasing in bursts once he gets clearer picture of annual SO trend.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_soon

Quoting a comment from a Trackitt thread,
"After looking at the DD and the 485 inventory the only logical cause for the state dept to bring the PD to 2004 must be that they have seen exponential I 140 filings dated 2004, 2005 and 2006 that are not reflected in the DD and will soon be. I guess porting EB3- EB2 before 2007 must have accelerated in the past few months"

This seems to be a good logic, but harsh to hear. Does CO have any data on info of "pending upgrades" (from AILA notes, it seems like USCIS doesn't provide CO that data?). Also from the pending I140 inventory, is there a way to guesstimate the number of porting cases.

It could be possible that after the rapid EB2 movement last year, many EB3 started porting or prepare themselves to be in a position to port soon. If that's the case, the past porting figures would be much lower than the future demand from ported cases. :(

Also, it might be safe to assume EB3 porter on average consumes 3-4 visas (assuming 1 for spouse and 1-2 for kids). Relatively speaking, many EB2 folks might be relatively younger and not have kids.

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My two cents based on recent cumulative demand Data and Visa BUlletin.

Attachment 288
From the Cumulative demand data table
Second table shows the visas avaliable per month for country and ROW.

India has 1350 cases prior to 2007 and in Visa bulletin date came to 2004 and based on the number from second table it will take 6 months to hit 2007. Similarly it takes 4 months to touch 2008 and 2 months for row to cross 2012.

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

Porting also does not seem to be very high I would guesstimate it to be around 4K; however the current backlog prior to 2007 is best attribute to porting last year.
This year the fundamentals are not looking great however the key is how soon EB2 ROW will become current and how will EB1 move.

If HR 3012 does not pass then probably till May the VB for EB2-I will move very slowly because there will be no spillover and there will be more porting cases added so it’s a moving target.

By Sep 2012 my initial estimate is that EB2-I dates will range from 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008; however the key is monitoring EB2 ROW and EB1 over the first quarter atleast. EB3-I will unfortunately move very slowly as it’s a very dense zone just by a week every VB.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends I think we should not fret over the last VB for EB2-I. It was determined by 1350 cases before 2007. This is largely due to EB2 – I being unavailable so these cases did not get approved last year itself.

The bulletin itself is driven by the 240 – 250 monthly allocation so the dates have been set almost symbolically to have just this number of individuals eligible. Notice that China has is far ahead because there is hardly any porting for China. EB2-I fundamentals are still ok if not great largely due to flash approvals which definitely ate into EB2 ROW in feb – mar so essentially this year is payback time. Despite all that 15K SOFAD is likely.

Porting also does not seem to be very high I would guesstimate it to be around 4K; however the current backlog prior to 2007 is best attribute to porting last year.
This year the fundamentals are not looking great however the key is how soon EB2 ROW will become current and how will EB1 move.

If HR 3012 does not pass then probably till May the VB for EB2-I will move very slowly because there will be no spillover and there will be more porting cases added so it’s a moving target.

By Sep 2012 my initial estimate is that EB2-I dates will range from 01-APR-2008 to 01-JUL-2008; however the key is monitoring EB2 ROW and EB1 over the first quarter atleast. EB3-I will unfortunately move very slowly as it’s a very dense zone just by a week every VB.

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Teddy,For EB2 Apr,2008 by Sep 2012 is almost certain. If USCIS tightens EB1 screws and EB2WW is at its usual rate EB2 may end up anywhere between Aug 2008 to Oct 2008.

USCIS dashboard updated with July numbers

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

See the deluge of I-140s filed!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

Seems like pre-adjudication may be over or nearing completion.

Moved BC related Q & A to appropriate sub-forum.

They can be found here.

RECEIPTS

Applications Received in FY2012 to Date - 67,400

Applications Received in Q4 to Date - 15,800

Receipts by Quarter

Q1 - 13,300
Q2 - 17,100
Q3 - 21,200
Q4 - 15,800 (to date)

PROCESSED

Applications Processed in FY2012 to Date - 63,900

Processed by Quarter

Q1 - 13,000
Q2 - 10,000
Q3 - 20,200
Q4 - 20,700 (to date)

CERTIFICATIONS

Applications Certified in FY2012 to Date - 51,600

Applications Certified in Q4 to Date - 17,800

Certifications by Quarter

Q1 - _9,500
Q2 - _7,100
Q3 - 17,200
Q4 - 17,800 (to date)


56% (28,700) of Certifications are for Indian Citizenship.

% of active PERM applications in Audit Review has increased from 37% as of July 8, 2012 to 45% as of September 16, 2012.

Active PERM applications have reduced from 28,400 as of July 8, 2012 to 23,700 as of September 16, 2012.

What does increase in pre-adjudication cases from March 2012 Suggests ??

pre-adjudication cases From March 2012 to Jul 2012.

Mar12 ->>>> 82162
Apr12 ->>>>> 82573
May12->>>>> 88043
Jun12 ->>>>> 95757
Jul12 ->>>>> 98423

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

USCIS dashboard updated with July numbers

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

See the deluge of I-140s filed!

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...=5&charttype=1

Seems like pre-adjudication may be over or nearing completion.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

They can be found here.

Applications Received in FY - 67,400

Application in Q4 to Date - 15,800

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EB-I demand shows no sign of abating.

Hi Gurus,

Is there a chance for EB2 China dates to reach 07/2010 during FY 2013.

Thanks for your responses.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

They can be found here.

RECEIPTS

Applications Received in FY2012 to Date - 67,400

Applications Received in Q4 to Date - 15,800

Receipts by Quarter

Q1 - 13,300
Q2 - 17,100
Q3 - 21,200
Q4 - 15,800 (to date)

PROCESSED

Applications Processed in FY2012 to Date - 63,900

Processed by Quarter

Q1 - 13,000
Q2 - 10,000
Q3 - 20,200
Q4 - 20,700 (to date)

CERTIFICATIONS

Applications Certified in FY2012 to Date - 51,600

Applications Certified in Q4 to Date - 17,800

Certifications by Quarter

Q1 - _9,500
Q2 - _7,100
Q3 - 17,200
Q4 - 17,800 (to date)


56% (28,700) of Certifications are for Indian Citizenship.

% of active PERM applications in Audit Review has increased from 37% as of July 8, 2012 to 45% as of September 16, 2012.

Active PERM applications have reduced from 28,400 as of July 8, 2012 to 23,700 as of September 16, 2012.

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Interesting, the total number of audits pending increased only 100, but the % jump is big because the total number of analyst reviews pending decreased.

This probably means audits are getting longer and standard cases are being processed more quickly. Most "easy" approvals on trackitt are in the 58-74 day range.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by eb2china

Hi Gurus,

Is there a chance for EB2 China dates to reach 07/2010 during FY 2013.

Thanks for your responses.

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Welcome to the forum.

Unfortunately, there is no prospect of that.

To reach 07/10, EB2-China would require a minimum of about 7.5k approvals in FY2013. Because EB2-India has so many cases compared to EB2-China, that really means SOFAD of > 48k being available in FY2013. That isn't going to happen under any scenario I can imagine.

It is likely that EB2-C will only receive 2.8k visas in FY2013. The maximum that could move EB2-C (without any porting) is about August 2008. Because of the low number of visas available, the date is very sensitive to even low numbers of porting cases for EB2-C.

With no porting and assuming only 2.8k per year is available, EB2-C might reach 07/10 in FY2015.

Only if SOFAD averages more than 19k per year over FY2013 - FY2015 might the time be less than that. You will have to decide whether that is feasible or not.

PS SOFAD equals all possible visas available to EB2-IC (normal allocation + spillover/fall across).

Predictions from Ron,
http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=18202

"Probably not much movement at all. Most likely, the cutoff date will remain stagnant until the second quarter of the fiscal year. Then, it should start moving pretty quickly to get deep into 2009 or early 2010."

Seems very very optimistic.

prob Ron is assuming that the president will pass the HR 3012 bill as soon as he gets into office.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_soon

Predictions from Ron,
http://www.immigration-information.c...ad.php?t=18202

"Probably not much movement at all. Most likely, the cutoff date will remain stagnant until the second quarter of the fiscal year. Then, it should start moving pretty quickly to get deep into 2009 or early 2010."

Seems very very optimistic.

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Friends,

2012 USCIS year is ending today. With this we are closing 2012 thread.

Lets continue over to 2013 thread HERE

Let me take this opportunity to thank first and foremost every single Guru and moderator. Other than their unique strengths and insights - I think we should also thank them for the sheer time and individual attention they put in.

I also thank the moderators especially for keeping the forum clean of spam. It is a thankless job and they do it annonymously. Even I don't know who cleaned what. But the fact that our forum stays clean day after day is a testament to their efforts.

Finally I also thank all the contributors and readers for keeping this forum objective, cooperative, respectful and friendly!

While GC is on everybody's mind - we might as well make this wait enjoyable by walking together.

With those words I am closing this thread - although will keep it open until midnight tonight just in case somebody wants to pen any final thoughts.

I wish everybody a great 2013 USCIS year!!!

All the best.

Q