hope21,Quote:
Originally Posted by hope21
It's refreshing to actually see a reply - I thought everybody had disappeared!
Unfortunately, that is the consequence of changes made without the addition of extra visa numbers. Those that benefit will be ecstatic and justify the change as the right thing to do. They won't bother to consider that their gain is at the expense of somebody else's pain.
The bigger problem for you is that the factors that previously allowed EB2-I advancement have disappeared before your case can be approved.
Here's a post I composed a few days ago, but never actually posted. It put's a bit more flesh on the subject of the underlying trend for EB2-I after stripping away the beneficial factors. I chose not to post it earlier, and only do so now with some hesitation, because it paints an altogether too bleak picture.
jimmys,Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
You ask a simple question which I don't think has an equally simple answer.
You might consider first that in FY2014, demand was extremely low, rather than this year being "astronomically" high.
Over the 5 years FY2009-FY2013 the EB2-ROW average was 28.6k and that EB2-WW (non-IC) was 32.5k. The base allocations per year are 28.8k and 34.4k respectively. Compared to FY2013, when EB2-ROW received 36.5k and EB2-WW received 42.6k, this FY is not likely to be especially high, especially considering how low last FY was.
I think it too early to make a sensible judgement. It's better to wait until the October Inventory and Visa Statistics are published. Until then, I would consider what follows as wild (almost reckless) speculation - I urge people to read it as such. It's a classic case of GIGO.
FY2015 has seen a relatively slow rate of approvals initially followed by a spike in approvals later in the year.
That correlates fairly well to the ROW PERM certification pattern seen about 1 year earlier.
That pattern is not likely to repeat in FY2016 and it's more likely than not that the approvals per month will be somewhat smoother.
That is not the entire picture. DOL are on target to certify around 20% more PERM in FY2015 (75k) than they did in FY2014 (62.6k). While much of that can be attributed to India and China, it has still resulted in an increase in the average monthly certifications for ROW. It means that the two 12 month periods are likely to have fairly similar numbers of ROW PERM certifications. As an unconnected side note, despite the increased number of certifications, the number of pending PERM cases had still increased slightly at the end of Q3 FY2015 compared to the end of FY2014.
This may partly explain why the latest ROW Inventory did not fall as much as might have been expected.
I would stress that PERM certification numbers are only an indicator. It's quite likely that the EB2:EB3 ratio for ROW has shifted slightly towards EB3 and the time it takes for the conversion of a certified PERM to an approved I-485 is very sensitive to USCIS processing times. It's apparent that I-485 approvals don't entirely mirror PERM certifications and are relatively more "spiky".
A relatively high pending Inventory of EB2-ROW cases is not a positive indicator, but it's entirely possible that is caused because increasing USCIS processing times are allowing relatively more cases to show in the Inventory. The number of pending I-140s also continue to climb according to USCIS reports.
As far as numbers next FY, it would be better for this FY ROW numbers to be as high as possible to limit the number that fall through to next FY. That number is bounded somewhat by the news that EB2-I is likely to receive around 7.5k in FY2015. The extra 4.5k have to come from somewhere. The possibilities are EB2-WW (FA), EB1/EB4/EB5 (FD) or from some unknown source such as against the overall 7% limit for India (EB2-I has received more approvals in recent years than SO alone can account for).
In the 5 years from FY2009-FY2013, 3 of those years had extra FB visas and EB2-IC benefited to the tune of about 23k. In FY2011, when there were no extra FB visas, the one off Kazarian effect allowed EB2-IC to benefit by 14.8k. In FY2009, when neither event occurred, EB2-I received only 10.1k (almost all from EB5).
In past years, low EB5 approvals also contributed to large amounts of SO to EB2-IC. In the 5 years from FY2009-FY2013, EB5 contributed another 24k towards EB2-IC approvals.
Those 62k extra visas, represented 68% of the total extra visas received by EB2-IC between FY2009 and FY2013 (90k). EB2-I received 85% of the total extra visas.
To put it in perspective, during that same 5 year period, EB2-WW contributed just 9.7k extra visas and EB1 (excluding FY2011) actually used 0.3k more than their base allocation, with EB4 contributing an additional 8.3k.
Overall, EB2-I progress has been driven by spare FB visas, a one off event and low EB5 approvals, rather than FA within EB2 (or even FD from EB1 for that matter). Two of those factors (which accounted for over 40% of the extra visas over that period) are unlikely to happen again.
Nearly 2/3 of the extra visas that EB2-I are expected to receive in FY2015 can be directly attributed to the extra FB numbers.
For next FY, SO available to EB2-I will again likely rely heavily on extra numbers from FB being available to the total EB allocation.
If DOS also front loads approvals in the Consular Processing system which FB relies on, the chances of extra FB visas falling to EB will diminish.
We'll know the approximate number number of extra FB visas available to EB in FY2016 when the FY2015 Visa Statistics are published - hopefully around January 2016.
My "finger in the air" sense at the moment is that EB2-ROW may have less approvals next FY than this FY, but that the difference won't be as high as some people hope for. However, if EB2-WW approvals are pushed into next FY due to increased USCIS processing times, that advantage can evaporate.
At this point, I don't think anything is certain about what FY2016 will bring for EB2-I. I've learned over the years to expect the unexpected and that events can happen that were totally unexpected.
