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redsox2009,
Isn't it November 2012 you need to ignore?
The Cut Off Date for EB2-WW moved to 01JAN12 in October, but only became Current in November. Wouldn't that be the odd month? - higher than normal Receipts would be expected, since any 2012 PD would have been waiting since July 2012 to file.
The I-140 Receipts are at the highest level since mid 2011.
Spec,
Does this volume include concurrent filing I-485 ? in otherwords, do they follow the same rule as that of inventory? (I-485 included only after I140 approval)
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I have no idea.
I have always assumed (unlike the USCIS Inventory) that the number includes all I-485 submitted.
Of course, not all I-485 submitted to NSC and TSC are EB - I believe EB historically only account for about 44% of the total. Last year that rose to 59%, but I think that was distorted by the large number of EB2-IC who could file I-485 in FY2012.
@GURUS
When would be an approximate time to get an idea on the Porting movement, What the Q3 would look like with Priority Dates for FY2013.
thanks
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I found this in trackitt:
"My lawyer said me that the dates for EB2I can go back to 2003. It is because a couple of major corporations ported all their employees from EB3 to EB2. they can consume 3500 visas easily."
Can this be true? and it goes back to my previous question (see few posts above)
It won't go back to 2003 this year. It could and most likely will move back significantly in Oct. How the lawyers got 2003 - who knows? If by "couple", he meant 2, then I think its a major stretch. I can't imagine 2 companies with 3500 EB3 employees. Only the Infosys, Wipro types have that kind of size.Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
Agree with vizcard's comment.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
It doesn't have to be 3500 employees right, it can be 900 employees and 2600 dependents right?Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
The current retrogression is due to massive porting of EB2 applicants to EB1. Many reputed companies in silicon valley are doing this. EB3 to EB2 porting was always there, it didn't increase drastically recently. EB2->EB1 porting has starved EB2 of the massive spillovers they used to get and hence the retrogression.Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
There sure is what seems to be misuse of EB1. Unfortunately the misuse is within USCIS rules - so unless there is rule change, this is going to continue. This is quite controversial - and so my last word today on this topic.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
Hope USCIS allows the filing of I485 after I140 is approved.That will help everybody EB2/EB3 IC ROW.This is an Administrative fix.But again there should be a desire to fix the problem.
Fair point although even 900 pure EB3 from 2 companies would be rather large. But at this point it's pure speculation from the lawyers perspective (and mine). I work a company with 30k employees in the US. I don't think we have more than 100 or 150 EB3. Although we probably have a sizable EB2 population.Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
Btw, I trust the calculations here way more than a single data point and that includes words from COs mouth let alone a lawyer who is guessing.
I agree and I'm not trying to argue - but trying to find out the odds with this porting stuff...Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I remember back in 2007 (during those substitution labor days), when the dates became current for all categories, every tom, dick and harry in these indian consulting companies got eb3 labor substituted for money, depending on the amount they were willing to pay, some even got labors dated back to 2003-2005 timeframes (the scale of money transacted was so huge that was even compared to the taxi licensing fiasco happened in New York way back). Now these are the indian consulting companies trying to port these labors in bulk becos all these guys became senior managers and directors in these companies in the past 4-5 years and have the power to influence their HRs and Visa departments to make this bulk porting (EB3 to EB2) possible...
So trying to figure out what could be the worst case #s for these porting (if we can predict/calculate). Remember there are atleast 20k+ primary applicants between the current EB3I and EB2I cutoff dates. What are the odds?
EB2 to EB1 "porting" is much more straightforward, no PERM required, no recruitment, no PWD. Just proof that someone is a manager aborad and is a manger here. The definition is so loose...Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
Also you need to work one year outside US...in last 3 years...not sure it is possible for mass upgrade to send people outside..Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
Yes This is still on lower side or quite low.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Now if we look at Trackitt data for EB2-I approvals between Apr 12 and Feb 13:
40 approvals for PD between Jan 1999 and Sep 2004
91 approvals for PD between Oct 2004 and Dec 2007
If linear calculation can be done, EB2I has consumed all 3 months quota from Oct 13 to Jan 13 for PD before Sep 2004. (close to 700-710 visas). That means 18X more number from trackitt.
If we assume same factor for PD between Oct 04 and Dec 07 then ported numbers that are preadjudicated or waiting for it are 1638. To be on safer side we can multiply this number by 1.5 and then total will be 2457.
So can we assume and say that porting in past 8-10 months is close to 3000 before 1 Jan 2008. It seems it should be higher than that....I really am unsure about it.
if this would be the case,I am loosing hope if any CIR or any quota increase will improve the situation? People are waiting to exploit the situation and unless the rules are strict and tighter, EB2 and in future all EBs may be tough?
Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
As Charles Oppenheim has found, it seems an impossible number to predict, unless USCIS release information on the numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
I've learnt it is almost a fruitless task to even try, since none of the assumptions can be tested.
As you correctly point out, the total number who can be approved in a FY is governed by how far the Cut Off dates move forward.
One approach is to use a figure for porters/ month /per PD year.
Using as an example only, 100 / month / PD year and eventual Cut Off Date movement to mid 2008 then:
By July 2013, 13 months will have passed since Dates became Unavailable.
September 2004 through June 2008 is 3.83 years.
Potential porting numbers becomes 100 * 13 * 3.83 = 4,975 by July 2013
Porting cases before a PD of September 2004 might use as many as 285 *9 = 2,565 by July 2013.
Total potential numbers by July 2013 = ~ 7.5k if Cut Off Date moved to 01JUL08.
That number just feels on the high side to me. It may not be. There is just no way to understand whether the assumptions made are correct, or even close to being correct, hence it is a fruitless exercise.
That's my last on porting.
Very disheartening to see your calculation on porting. Based on this rate of porting, what do you think the priority date will be by fy 2013.
Thanks
Vkkpnm,Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Welcome to the forum.
It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Is there a way you can put together a matrix with a minimum and maximum porting #s that you think will be and the corresponding PD movement by FY 2013 could be ? Something like below?
For 20/month/pd year - say Jul 2008
For 40/month/pd year - say Jan 2008
...
For 200/month/pd year - say Sep 2004 etc...
Without an idea on this porting, all the calculations in Page 1 may end up being just a prediction... May be too much to ask - sorry, trying to see if there could be any insight on this porting stuff?
Thanks Spectator for quick response. Wondering cannt we determine EB3 to EB2 porting rate based on approval/demand data of year 2004 and below?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I am very novice on this subject, so please ignore if I have asked irrelevant question.
Thanks
Is there any way we can know these porting numbers in the next few months visa Bulletings? as to what maginitude they are in? and predict the movement after 2 months how it would look like?
@Spec - When do you think you would get a better idea - (May, June or July 2013) in terms of cut off dates in Q4 FY2013?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
This information not available to whom? USCIS or CO or us. It might take very little time for USCIS to find out all approved I40s who requested interfiling as of any month? Why they are not doing it? or not been asked to find out? This beats me. If this helps to streamline the process, then why they are not trying to find out?. Future can be difficult to predict but not the past?
Sorry I am not trying to underestimate your great efforts!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Hey All
this was posted on another blog and the numbers are confusing when compared to Spec, Q & Veni's numbers on page1. can you please clarify this number crunching?
Earlier this month, DOS updated the Visa Statistics links, thus giving the official FY 2012 numbers.
According to this, these are the number of Green Cards EB2-India folks have got:
FY 2012 -- 19,726
FY 2011 -- 23,997
FY 2010 -- 19,961
FY 2009 -- 10,106
FY 2008 -- 14,806
In FY 2012, these are the numbers:
EB4 -- 7,478
EB5 -- 7,641
EB1 -- 39,387
EB2 -- 50,593
EB3 -- 39,549
Total -- 144,648
Generally, the spillover works this way --> EB4 to EB5 to EB1 to EB2. In EB2 , all the EB2 ROW excess numbers going to EB2 India and China. Also, the law is in such a way that numbers has to go to most demand country. So, EB2 India will get all the spill overs till it reaches EB2 China PD date. Then, they will go hand in hand.
Let us do some extrapolation. Lets assume there will be about 300 porting per month. So, it will be 3600 there for full FY 2013. Also, from the above data EB2 - India has got about 39% of total EB2 numbers.
I think the best case scenario will be, if EB2 India gets the same as last year about 20,000. In this case, the PD will go as far as 01-AUG-09 in Sept VB, based on the Jan inventory data. But, from various lawfirm websites we are hearing that this is not possible -- as EB5 demand, EB1 demand and EB2 ROW has increased tremendously. If we assume, there is same number of immigrant visas are given for EB4 and if EB2 India gets about 25% of total EB2 number (45,188), with spillover total EB2 India will be about 15,000. This will make the PD move to 01-APR-08. I feel this is more optimal and can happen. According to me, the worst case scenario will be, EB2 India getting 15% of the total EB2 number. This still will bring the number to about 10,000 and moving the dates to 01-JAN-08 by Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin.
Of course, there are lot of assumptions here as in the number of porting, EB4 demand staying the same and EB2 ROW's spillover. We need to wait and watch how it spans out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I think Porting is a bigger concern as we will get atleast 12-15k SOFAD (including FB spillovers), but the 300/month assumption should be for the # of porting cases and not the # of visas. The # of visas should be atleast 2.5 times the ported cases - So it should be atleast 750/month - making it 9000 total visas - now CO's original comment of early-mid 2007 comes to my mind...
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
That's an interesting point. Porting happens with a 140. So the question is are there 300 I140s per month or I485s? My sense (hope) is that it's somewhere in between. But my advice to everyone is don't get hung up on porting numbers as there is just no publicly available info. It is noted as a risk.
FWIW I'm pinning my hopes on CIR.
There are 300+ I-140 approvals there for sure but we don't know whether they are porting or not? We won't know until the forward movement of dates (I know it is a well known fact!). The delay in moving dates is gonna be good for everyone for different reasons becos CO will be forced to move it well ahead even to late '08 and there is a chance for more people to avail EAD/AP benefits (ofcourse for those who missed last year and before). But it will again becomes a lottery and the low hanging fruits will get the benefit like last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Cant we determine porting rate based on eb2 approval/DD for PD 2004 or lower since Jun12 when dates were retrogressed ?
As Spec and other gurus mentioned earlier, it is a futile exercise - the best thing for CO and every EB2I would be to keep it at the same date until the last month of FY13 and make it current for EB2I for that one last month. This way it becomes a pure lottery - EB1, EB2 or EB3 - in the current terms nothing is superior (every category is exploited badly) - give it to luck and whoever is lucky will get the GC - atleast everyone will get the EAD/AP benefits.Quote:
Originally Posted by Vkkpnm
Is this a correct assumtion below
FB Visa - 13K to EB2IN
SOFAD - 5k to EB2IN
Quota - 3.2K
Total - 21k - (7K Porting) This would make dates move into June 2008 - is this calculation valid? any hidden variables? please clarify
Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
SeekingGC2013,Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013
I personally believe the figure of 13k to EB2-I is too high. You are also double counting the amount directly to EB2-I of 0.4k (2.8+0.4=3.2), since that is already part of your 13k.
Here's how I see the allocation of the 18k and how many would likely be available to EB2-I.
The numbers potentially NOT available to EB2-I are:
EB2-C ---- 360 (guaranteed not available)
EB2-WW - 4,428 (360+360+3,708) (EB2-WW will use likely use this allocation due to being retrogressed last year.)
EB3 ---- 5,148 (not available by law)
Total -- 9,936 extra likely to be NOT available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.
The numbers potentially available to EB2-I are:
EB1 ---- 5,148 (via spillover)
EB2-I ---- 360 (the only guaranteed amount)
EB4 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)
EB5 ---- 1,278 (via spillover)
Total -- 8,064 extra likely to be available to EB2-I due to extra FB visas.
Adding the normal allocation of 2,803 gives a total of 10,867.
In addition, you would have to account for the spillover from EB1, EB4 and EB5 net of the extra FB visas included above. I think that is the 5k in your calculation.
EB also received FB visas last year. Stripping away that effect gives the net spillover (i.e.corrected to 140k EB visas)
EB1 ----- 653
EB4 --- 2,462
EB5 --- 2,299
Total - 5,414 net spillover in FY2012 (excludes FB effect)
As they say, past performance etc etc., but EB5 is very likely to use more visas in FY2013. EB1 is the big unknown IMO.
As an extra little complication, EB2-China are possibly entitled to 7% of any Fall Down from EB1 (there was a previous discussion about it). To illustrate this, of the 5,414 that fell down in FY2012, EB2-C would have received 379 of that total. For the sake of simplicity, you can ignore that in your calculations if you wish, but it equates to 1k per 14.3k of Fall Down. A net FD of 5k implies gross FD of 12.7k.
Assuming by SOFAD, you actually mean net Fall Down from EB1 of 5k, the simplified version of your calculation IMO would be
FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k
Total ------------------- 15.9k
LESS PORTING ------------ (7.0k)
AVAILABLE NET OF PORTING - 8.9k
It would be 4.2k higher, if you believe EB2-WW will not use any of the extra FB visas available to them i.e. they use no more than 34.4k in FY2013.
I hope I have understood correctly.
@Spec - thanks a lot for detailed explanantion.
So the big factors which would play a role in PD's moving into Mid 2008 are EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB2 WW Demand in the next 6 mons? And also if the Porting cases are around 7K? Is that a correct assumption.
If so when would be an appropriate time to find out the trend of those variables?
thanks
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,
As usual, great post.. I agree with your estimation of 7k/year towards porting.
However, if dates do not move until Q4, do you think 7k applications would be processed in-time to award the visas before the dates move back again?
Do you think there would be gradual movement or one big time movement ?
I too think porting is huge. Someone should take a look at this porting and set some streamlining procedures in place. Something like PD or Date on which the eligiblity to EB2 was reached, which ever is later. This way people filing in EB3 as a place holder untill they get EB2 eligibility and then porting.... can be stopped. Im not sure if porting takes care of these situations already, with what i've heard so far no such exists. (Im not an expert, i may be wrong)
Quote:
Originally Posted by geeaarpee
Hey Spec
In the below Calclation - what about Spiilover from EB4 & EB5 - your calculation on Page1 shows another 4.5K SO from EB4&EB5 - is that added looks like total visas would be 20K as you predicted earlier.
FB Visa ------------------ 8.1k to EB2IN
NET FD FROM EB1 ---------- 5.0k to EB2IN
Quota -------------------- 2.8k
Total ------------------- 15.9k
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
With assumption of 7K porting numbers till June 2008 and SOFAD number at 16K, I do not think we will be able to see 2nd quarter of 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Demand data has 7300 number till 1 Jan 2008 and Jan08-Mar08 has additional 4.7 K pending I-1485. So total demand is 12K till March08. If we will take porting into consideration that will add another 6K till Mar08. (at max but to be optimistic it will be 3K ) Here we are assuming that none of 7K ported numbers are counted towards demand data.
Now to reach march 08..we need spillover of 15K-18K. Another thing we are also considering that regular quota of 2.8K will all be consumed before Sept 2004 porters.
Spec any comments??
SeekingGC2013,
The Net Spillover includes the EB4 + EB5 goes to EB1 and comes down to EB2 as NET, just like Spec explained below how we got last year
Thanks Spec, for this crystal clear explanation.Quote:
EB1 ----- 653
EB4 --- 2,462
EB5 --- 2,299
Total - 5,414 net spillover in FY2012 (excludes FB effect)
erikbond
DD before March 2008 - 10800
DD before May 2008 - 13700
So with Porting at 5K (assumption) - SOFAD at 16K - it might move into Apr 2008. Again if quota is not used before Sept 2004 - it can move into Q2
Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
Kanmani
Thank you - im new to this Forum - trying to the details of these calculations.
SO NET Spillover on 1st page as SPEC predicted - he said would be around 15.8k + quota 3K = 19K for EB2I - is that true?
If so - with 6K porting - dates should move into 2008 Q2 - am i wrong/?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani