EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

EB1 NEW DEMAND at DoS can be inferred by the formular I suggested. Lets assume there is only 1 category for EB.

Now I want to understand how many people filed for 485 and approved in 2010. To answer this

1) there are only "Dec-09 inv" people to begin with.
2) then there are 41.2 or so approvals in 2010 that DoS has confirmed.
3) then there are "Oct-10 inv" people who are in pipeline w/o being approved.

So the people who applied and were approvable were

2) - 1) + 3)

That's what I call NEW DEMAND in 2010 in EB1. MAkes sense?

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Q,

Thanks for showing the patience to explain it to me. I get it now.

That's quite an ingenious calculation.

With such a dynamically changing Category as EB1, it might only give an indicative figure.

For retrogressed Categories, we know that the cases in the Inventory have been pre-adjudicated.

I don't know at what point in the process that Current applications are added to the Inventory figures and I therefore don't know what those cases in the Inventory mean, or even if they are approvable.

I-140s and I-485s are not processed together, except in the rare event that they are part of the TSC Pilot Plus Program (I don't even know if that is still operational).

If the I-485s are entered into the Inventory fairly early, the underlying I-140s may not have been adjudicated. That leaves the possibility of them being removed later if the I-140 is denied.

If they are put on only after the I-140 has been approved, they can only represent "problem" cases, since it doesn't take long to adjudicate an I-485 otherwise. They would then just represent an increase in the Pending numbers.

I favor the first explanation.

PS Did you notice that even the EB1 figures in the January Inventory contained higher numbers in some of the early years, even as far back as 1997? I don't know what to make of that, since they can't have come from Local Offices, otherwise they would have been approved there.

If you have any information on this subject I would love to know.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Friends I just researched Trackitt again to see the EB2 ROW trend looks like the approvals are accelerating now. If we compare the EB2 ROW + EB2 NIW approvals for Oct - Jan for both years the following results come up 169/245, lets make this ratio 180/245 as the full month of Jan has not elapsed and some folks put in approvals late.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 43000 - 6000 - 9500 = 27500.
Now the trend shows that the consumption is (180/245) * 27500 ~ 20K.
Since we are back to regular cap now EB2 ROW SOFAD ~= 40K-20K-5.5K ~= 14.5K.
Now the EB1 Trackitt trend seems to be too far from reality lets assume that EB1 will not give us any SOFAD to be conservative.
Total EB2 SOFAD = 20K (Adding India & China).
EB5 ~ 7K.
So even the most conservative calculation leads us to atleast 27K. If EB2 ROW consumption accelerates this could all crumble like a pack of cards. This SOFAD will take us to 01-JAN-2007. Unfortunately there seems to be no good way to compute EB1.
If EB1 were to decline even 25% it adds 10K to the SOFAD, if we assume that that we get say 5K from EB1 maybe we can call the range as 01-JAN-2007 to 01-MAR-2007. Iam assuming 6K PD porting.

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Q appreciate all the time and the midnight oil you burnt to update the header. Its absolutely heartbreaking almost a shellacking. Your calculations look good based on all the assumptions unfortunately if all the assumptions hold then the situation will be as you have outlined. Kudos for putting it out though I can understand how painful it must have been given that all of us have a personal stake in it. Also it’s great that we all know well in advance what is going to happen that have all the hopes till the end and have them shattered. lets now debate some of the assumptions both qualitatively and quantitatively.

- You have assumed the CP to be 15%, I remember reading it somewhere that its just 1% or less for EB2. With the kind of wait times that are there Iam sure people will have a very hard time justifying the future job offer these days it is hard to get H1B extensions approved without showing concrete evidence.

- On EB1 usage I remember that there used to be a user on IV - kondur007 (He first applied in EB2 the EB2-NIW and the EB1-A to get his GC) the and he gave some very helpful insights into EB1. Even when everything kept going south EB1 usage continued to surprise. The reason is that primarily EB1-A and B jobs are fairly isolated from the regular job market, in fact if the market were to go south people are more likely to stay in research and have more publications and apply again. The denial rates for EB1 A and B are very high and RFE's are a norm. For EB1C we would expect the usage to go south if the market goes down however probably it is staying stable because of the onsite / offshore model. So at best lets say that EB1 usage will stay the same. I do agree with Spec that probably Trackitt is the only way to see the EB1 trend however these folks maybe disinclined to enter their profiles because it does not take very long anyway or the general retribution that Eb1C folks especially get. On EB1C I can bet that the screws are being tightened and only genuine folks are getting past more than ever before.

The EB2 ROW trend I compared last years calculations and found that the decline from 2009 to 2010 did give a fairly accurate picture so hopefully the 2010 to 2011 will also be accurate. I do see that because of the acceleration happening the ratio has come down from a 33% decline to a 25% decline. EB2 ROW is going to be the most important and critical pillar. On the perm data figures I believe that we are probably being a little more conservative than usual going by the face values the main point of denial is really the I140, I don’t have any data to say but IMHO there will be a 20 dropout rate.

On the PD porting you are assuming 4K which probably is a little light Iwould put it at 6K, actually FY 2010 has been a huge awakening point especially for Indian folks that its the only way to get GC. The most shocking interpretation comes from the inventory for 2002 months Feb - Dec showed a decline in figures when almost every other saw a rise the reason being that even late 2002 are porting. But even the most pessimistic estimate would be 6K, there are a lot many who are happy with EAD / AP which is probably half of GC.
I just bumped up my post which seems to give 27K SOFAD your honest thoughts on that and what likelihood in terms of percentage you see it happening.

Spec

Pls find my comments inside in BLUE. Overall I will say if we keep it simple, its easier to understand, rationalize, digest and accept.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

With such a dynamically changing Category as EB1, it might only give an indicative figure.
Yes. But this indicative figure is your average case scenario unless we have a reason to believe 2011 will be different.

I don't know at what point in the process that Current applications are added to the Inventory figures and I therefore don't know what those cases in the Inventory mean, or even if they are approvable.
For current categories such as EB1 this probably doesn't matter. And even if a category is not current, probably its not as risky to only look at throughput (as in NEW DEMAND).

I-140s and I-485s are not processed together, except in the rare event that they are part of the TSC Pilot Plus Program (I don't even know if that is still operational).

If the I-485s are entered into the Inventory fairly early, the underlying I-140s may not have been adjudicated. That leaves the possibility of them being removed later if the I-140 is denied.
If we focus on the throughput then all denials withdrawals are baked into it. So I think this is not a concern.


PS Did you notice that even the EB1 figures in the January Inventory contained higher numbers in some of the early years, even as far back as 1997? I don't know what to make of that, since they can't have come from Local Offices, otherwise they would have been approved there.
I didn't know that. As of now I do not know its significance. This could be because USCIS tends to process slow initially and picks up speed in last quarter. Just a wild guess!!
But as far as this model goes .... I didn't use the latest inventory since the major factor is really 2010 actuals data published by DoS.

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I know for a fact that EB1C is really tight this year, TCS almost stopped applying in that category as they can't answer the detailed queries and prove that for every one, this is causing problems for those companies to apply L1s and h1s if needed

TCS is now lookign to hire people who r already here and on h1 and ready for subcontracting, which tells how hard it's getting for them to bring people onsite.

Agencies did great job stopping the abuse, as of now 29month OPT is the only option for fresh graduates, and this year 20K h1 quota for MS grads lasted for really long time(last yr even though regular quota didn't fill, MS quota was quickly consumed)

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Originally Posted by bieber

I know for a fact that EB1C is really tight this year, TCS almost stopped applying in that category as they can't answer the detailed queries and prove that for every one, this is causing problems for those companies to apply L1s and h1s if needed

TCS is now lookign to hire people who r already here and on h1 and ready for subcontracting, which tells how hard it's getting for them to bring people onsite.

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There was a thread on Trackitt some days back that suggested that somebody who had gotten approved in EB1C had GC rescinded because somebody in the company simlarly qualified was put in EB3 and there was a complaint which was followed up by a site visit. Also the EB1C RFE's are on the rise and without verifying the org chart nobody is being approved these days. There are a couple of posts on Trackitt suggesting that Eb1C I140 itself is taking 10 months.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

There was a thread on Trackitt some days back that suggested that somebody who had gotten approved in EB1C had GC rescinded because somebody in the company simlarly qualified was put in EB3 and there was a complaint which was followed up by a site visit. Also the EB1C RFE's are on the rise and without verifying the org chart nobody is being approved these days. There are a couple of posts on Trackitt suggesting that Eb1C I140 itself is taking 10 months.

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besides, there is 2000 increase in the fees for L1/H1s for these companies,

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Originally Posted by bieber

besides, there is 2000 increase in the fees for L1/H1s for these companies,

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Here is the link. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...1a-eb1c-busted

Bieber I agree with you even I have read and heard the same no more H1b extensions even.

Bieber, Teddy,

I hope your guess about EB1 is right and this year we see less approvals. Probably in March we can take a bearing on EB1 approvals on trackitt and see if we need to adjust out predictions.
Right now do you think the examples you are giving compelling enough to warrant reduction in EB1 demand for 2011?

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Originally Posted by bieber

besides, there is 2000 increase in the fees for L1/H1s for these companies,

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Here is the link. http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussi...1a-eb1c-busted

Bieber I agree with you even I have read and heard the same no more H1b extensions even.

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This might be a very basic question: Does anybody know the breakup of EB1 into EB1-A, EB1-B and EB1-C categories. I personally don't have firsthand information about EB1-C but that's probably the category that has been misused the most.

I can speak of a few friends/colleagues of mine who have got their GC's recently through EB1-A. For two of my colleagues, our employer submitted their applications under EB2 (both of them have Phds from well known US schools); due to the backlog for EB2-I/C, they also simultaneously pursued their applications under EB1-A category and got their approval in less than a year from the date of I140 submission. I talked with their lawyer as I also wanted to explore this option. One of the feedback I got from the lawyer is that the # of submissions under EB1A have increased recently, especially for folks from India/China. I doubt that the number of EB1-B submissions will increase drastically because that will imply a lot of new research jobs have been created in the last year (which seems counter-intuitive to me). I don't know how much this increase will contribute to the overall EB1 usage. If a substantial chunk of EB1 usage is from EB1-C, then the above will have minimal impact; otherwise, it will contribute to more EB1 visas in the coming year/s.

Thanks for any pointers on this!

Friends,
I just posted a question to the President at the official youtube site. I hope he picks my question to respond on Thursday. You can post questions at http://youtube.com/askobama

"Mr. President, There are roughly 45000 individuals with advanced degrees or exceptional abilities waiting in the legal immigration queue. Who are you going to help? Them or illegal immigrants who do not add any value to the economy and how?"

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Originally Posted by pch053

This might be a very basic question: Does anybody know the breakup of EB1 into EB1-A, EB1-B and EB1-C categories. I personally don't have firsthand information about EB1-C but that's probably the category that has been misused the most.

I can speak of a few friends/colleagues of mine who have got their GC's recently through EB1-A. For two of my colleagues, our employer submitted their applications under EB2 (both of them have Phds from well known US schools); due to the backlog for EB2-I/C, they also simultaneously pursued their applications under EB1-A category and got their approval in less than a year from the date of I140 submission. I talked with their lawyer as I also wanted to explore this option. One of the feedback I got from the lawyer is that the # of submissions under EB1A have increased recently, especially for folks from India/China. I doubt that the number of EB1-B submissions will increase drastically because that will imply a lot of new research jobs have been created in the last year (which seems counter-intuitive to me). I don't know how much this increase will contribute to the overall EB1 usage. If a substantial chunk of EB1 usage is from EB1-C, then the above will have minimal impact; otherwise, it will contribute to more EB1 visas in the coming year/s.

Thanks for any pointers on this!

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The EB1 breakdown into A, B and C can be found in the tables associated with the DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics (Table 7). http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/.../yearbook.shtm

For the period FY2005 to FY2009 the ratios have been :

EB1A - 20%
EB1B - 20%
EB1C - 60%

The only blip was in FY2008, when the ratios were 22%, 28% and 50% respectively.

Hey.... Thanks for the info. Gave you greens for that.

p.s. As KD commented below, yes I did give greens for AC's effort. I do think I would have asked the same question dfferently and without accusing other immigrants.

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Originally Posted by angryclubs

Friends,
I just posted a question to the President at the official youtube site. I hope he picks my question to respond on Thursday. You can post questions at http://youtube.com/askobama

"Mr. President, There are roughly 45000 individuals with advanced degrees or exceptional abilities waiting in the legal immigration queue. Who are you going to help? Them or illegal immigrants who do not add any value to the economy and how?"

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Friends,

As per suggestions from several of you, I have deleted some of the off topic discussion/argument including one of my own!

My experience is - almost all of us are decent people, respectful of each other. But once in a while one of us can let our emotions get the better of us. Its our collective responsibility to stay calm and not react to it.

I respect your posts and would really like to avoid this kind of moderation in future.

Teddy,

Thanks. Please see my comments inline.. in BLUE

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

- You have assumed the CP to be 15%, I remember reading it somewhere that its just 1% or less for EB2.
I haven't really allocated 15% to CP in my model. So that's actually a headwind. I will make it clear in the header.

- On EB1 usage I remember that there used to be a user on IV - kondur007 (He first applied in EB2 the EB2-NIW and the EB1-A to get his GC) the and he gave some very helpful insights into EB1. Even when everything kept going south EB1 usage continued to surprise. The reason is that primarily EB1-A and B jobs are fairly isolated from the regular job market, in fact if the market were to go south people are more likely to stay in research and have more publications and apply again. The denial rates for EB1 A and B are very high and RFE's are a norm. For EB1C we would expect the usage to go south if the market goes down however probably it is staying stable because of the onsite / offshore model. So at best lets say that EB1 usage will stay the same. I do agree with Spec that probably Trackitt is the only way to see the EB1 trend however these folks maybe disinclined to enter their profiles because it does not take very long anyway or the general retribution that Eb1C folks especially get. On EB1C I can bet that the screws are being tightened and only genuine folks are getting past more than ever before.
Teddy thanks again. It seems that you don't really think that there are strong reasons why EB1 overall in 2010 should go down. USCIS is always vigilant about abuse. So I personally wouldn't think that is a strong enough reason to say EB1 will decline. Having said that, I think we should continue to monitor trackitt for signs of significant declines.

The EB2 ROW trend I compared last years calculations and found that the decline from 2009 to 2010 did give a fairly accurate picture so hopefully the 2010 to 2011 will also be accurate. I do see that because of the acceleration happening the ratio has come down from a 33% decline to a 25% decline. EB2 ROW is going to be the most important and critical pillar. On the perm data figures I believe that we are probably being a little more conservative than usual going by the face values the main point of denial is really the I140, I don’t have any data to say but IMHO there will be a 20 dropout rate.
Teddy I have assumed your "25% decline in EB-2ROW demand" assumption. As per rate of denial withdrawal .... all that is already baked into the way I have calculated PURE NEW DEMAND.

On the PD porting you are assuming 4K which probably is a little light Iwould put it at 6K.
Agree.

I just bumped up my post which seems to give 27K SOFAD your honest thoughts on that and what likelihood in terms of percentage you see it happening.
Teddy I think I found a flaw in my logic as I was about to write about a flaw in yours. I am calculating PURE NEW DEMAND in 2010 for ROW which was about 32K. This exactly matches the I-140 surge. However then I apply 25% reduction on this demand and then assume all backlog gets taken care of. For EB1 my approach is ok where the demand itself is not changing. However for ROW there was this surge that may be going away in a big way. For ROW the usual annual EB2 demand is 8-16K at 485 level (including MP).

I think we need to establish I-140 demand reduction YoY.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy,

Thanks. Please see my comments inline.. in BLUE

.................
Teddy thanks again. It seems that you don't really think that there are strong reasons why EB1 overall in 2010 should go down. USCIS is always vigilant about abuse. So I personally wouldn't think that is a strong enough reason to say EB1 will decline. Having said that, I think we should continue to monitor trackitt for signs of significant declines
..................

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Q, Teddy,
Not only trackitt but also i140 trending from USCIS dash board !

Veni

140 completions are trending slight down. But Receipts are actually flat or trending up while the pending is trending up. Right?

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q, Teddy,
Not only trackitt but also i140 trending from USCIS dash board !

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Q

I don't know if what we are seeing at personal level will actually reflect in the numbers exactly, but the experiences are similar to what happened with h1s in last 2 years. if not there is huge cut down in the consumption, there would be atleast delay i guess, until things get little better and companies resume previous practises.

Obama mentioned in his speech last night about MS/Phd degree holders, and if they walk their talk and pass the bill to remove the lottery and assign it to EB, wonders will happen.

Teddy

Thanks for the trackitt link, there are all different kinds of people on these forums, some people just get the sadistic pleasure by creating such stories, leaving the benefit of doubt explained situation is somewhat is close to reality

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Originally Posted by bieber

Q

I don't know if what we are seeing at personal level will actually reflect in the numbers exactly, but the experiences are similar to what happened with h1s in last 2 years. if not there is huge cut down in the consumption, there would be atleast delay i guess, until things get little better and companies resume previous practises.

Obama mentioned in his speech last night about MS/Phd degree holders, and if they walk their talk and pass the bill to remove the lottery and assign it to EB, wonders will happen.

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Biber, those personal experiences need to be backed by numbers to be able to rely on them. Obama's speech if turns into action for STEM PHDs then that will really work well. But I am not very optimistic about it. However a CNN poll showed that democrats, reps and independents all seemed to agree to Obama's position.

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Originally Posted by bieber

Teddy
Thanks for the trackitt link, there are all different kinds of people on these forums, some people just get the sadistic pleasure by creating such stories, leaving the benefit of doubt explained situation is somewhat is close to reality

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Bieber, thanks for saying that. I think this topic deserves some discussion.

I tend to believe that somebody who plays by USCIS rules and gets GC in whichever category doesn't deserve to be attacked by fellow immigrants. If indeed there is fraud, there are enough anti-immigrant groups who are already playing the role of vigilantes. Who knows if teh story is planted by one of the anti-immigrants.

Besides, for countries like India and China is it far fetched to imagine that they can send 6K EB1 to US every year? The company I work at didn't have many directors of Indian origin as recently as 5-6 years back. Suddenly in last 5-6 years there are not just directors but VPs and Sr. VPs and CIOs and CFOs of Indian origin. Not all of them are born in US.

So in entire US, I can easily imagine 6K indians being eligible for EB1 every year.

When I did my MBA 7-8 years back, my school had 15% Indians (from India). If I remember correctly even harvard wharton and all other schools had similar ratio. So what's the big deal with Indians or Chinese getting 6K of EB1? (Since many people can also climb management ladder w/o MBA!)

Yes there will be some fraud cases. But that doesn't define the entire demand in that category.

p.s. - not to mention PHDs. There is a significant proportion of IC PHD students.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Biber, those personal experiences need to be backed by numbers to be able to rely on them. Obama's speech if turns into action for STEM PHDs then that will really work well. But I am not very optimistic about it. However a CNN poll
showed that democrats, reps and independents all seemed to agree to Obama's position.

- On EB1 usage I remember that there used to be a user on IV - kondur007 (He first applied in EB2 the EB2-NIW and the EB1-A to get his GC) the and he gave some very helpful insights into EB1. Even when everything kept going south EB1 usage continued to surprise. The reason is that primarily EB1-A and B jobs are fairly isolated from the regular job market, in fact if the market were to go south people are more likely to stay in research and have more publications and apply again. The denial rates for EB1 A and B are very high and RFE's are a norm. For EB1C we would expect the usage to go south if the market goes down however probably it is staying stable because of the onsite / offshore model. So at best lets say that EB1 usage will stay the same. I do agree with Spec that probably Trackitt is the only way to see the EB1 trend however these folks maybe disinclined to enter their profiles because it does not take very long anyway or the general retribution that Eb1C folks especially get. On EB1C I can bet that the screws are being tightened and only genuine folks are getting past more than ever before.
Teddy thanks again. It seems that you don't really think that there are strong reasons why EB1 overall in 2010 should go down. USCIS is always vigilant about abuse. So I personally wouldn't think that is a strong enough reason to say EB1 will decline. Having said that, I think we should continue to monitor trackitt for signs of significant declines.

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Q here are the numbers from Trackitt, the numbers show a definite trend of huge decline. Especially have a look at EB1-C.

Year 2009 (Oct to Dec) EB1A – 57 EB1B – 97 EB1C – 70 Total - 224
Year 2010 (Oct to Jan) EB1A – 18 EB1B – 22 EB1C – 22 Total - 60

Overall if you notice EB1 is really down. I fully agree with you that those who really qualify for EB1C must get and not everybody is fraud. Indians are slowly moving to top levels across organizations.

Bieber thanks I agree that some people may make up things but looks like giving the benefit of doubt this maybe true. I have a neighbor who works with one of the companies that have been traditionally known to file EB1c's as a Program Manager, forget about EB1c he had to spend a year out of US because his case could not be processed and now he is trying for a GC after starting the next innings on L1A and most likely it will not be EB1C.

Q in light of the Trackitt data and the historical facts I think we can assume that EB1 will not give us any spillover for a very conservative calculation but we should not assume the usage to go up to significantly eat into EB5. Lets consider EB1 to cancel itself, if the Trackitt trend were to hold then we may see wonders in Sep 2011, however for a balanced calculation IMHO even assuming a 25% decline seems to be fair.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Veni

140 completions are trending slight down. But Receipts are actually flat or trending up while the pending is trending up. Right?

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Q,
That's right! with exception of June 10 and Aug 10, if the trend continues the same into 2011Q1 then we can stick with your conservative estimates.

Since we may not have other way of tracking EB1/EB2ROW (other than trackitt) we can rely on i140 tending from USCIS dash board until DOS updates their prediction in the VISA bulletin.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Q here are the numbers from Trackitt, the numbers show a definite trend of huge decline. Especially have a look at EB1-C.

Year 2009 (Oct to Dec) EB1A – 57 EB1B – 97 EB1C – 70 Total - 224
Year 2010 (Oct to Jan) EB1A – 18 EB1B – 22 EB1C – 22 Total - 60

Overall if you notice EB1 is really down. I fully agree with you that those who really qualify for EB1C must get and not everybody is fraud. Indians are slowly moving to top levels across organizations.

Bieber thanks I agree that some people may make up things but looks like giving the benefit of doubt this maybe true. I have a neighbor who works with one of the companies that have been traditionally known to file EB1c's as a Program Manager, forget about EB1c he had to spend a year out of US because his case could not be processed and now he is trying for a GC after starting the next innings on L1A and most likely it will not be EB1C.

Q in light of the Trackitt data and the historical facts I think we can assume that EB1 will not give us any spillover for a very conservative calculation but we should not assume the usage to go up to significantly eat into EB5. Lets consider EB1 to cancel itself, if the Trackitt trend were to hold then we may see wonders in Sep 2011, however for a balanced calculation IMHO even assuming a 25% decline seems to be fair.

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Teddy,

This is pretty much what I have been trying to say.

I have already pointed out that the % that Trackitt represents for EB1 dropped dramatically between FY2009 and FY2010.

Even using the FY2010 %, the FY2011 approvals are heading for half the allocation.

To me, that can be one of the following:

a) The Trackitt figures reflect reality. This can mean either:

i) The Trackitt approvals will continue at the current rate and we will be in bonusland! :D

ii) The approvals to date are low for some reason and there will be a surge later. :(

b) The Trackitt % has fallen again dramatically. :(

Or a combination of the above.

There is currently no foolproof way to determine which of the options above are true. Over time, (a)(ii) will be proved or disproved.

As for EB1C, I thought that might happen last year as well. It either did and EB1A & EB1B were able to compensate, or EB1C remained a relatively high % of total EB1.

We won't know the answer to that until the DHS Immigration Yearbook is published.

Either way, I don't see a reason why the situation should be substantially different in FY2011.

I don't think there is yet any compelling evidence for either a rise or fall in overall EB1 numbers.

The fact that the monthly I-140 Receipts have stayed relatively stable since March 2010 might be an indication that not a lot has changed.

I think we can only keep a watching brief on EB1 for clues as to which way it will go.

In the meantime, we have to agree on a figure for the SOFAD projection.

My thoughts anyway.

Q,Teddy and other expert number crunchers,

Can we have an optimistic, pessimistic and most likely dates for EB2I/C in Jul-Sep 2011 based on the latest facts?