Please be careful in gathering media attention. The bill is still in delicate stage. And we don't want to invite outside scrutiny and the antis yet. Rather use your enthusiasm to gather and reach out to people who will pick up the phone and call Senators when the time comes.
The thing about advocacy is we want attention of lawmakers esp now that we have a bill but not general distracting chatter from media. A simple out of context case of someone abusing the system will undo the whole bill.
Very good information. Thanks Leo4ever!
I agree. No need to go to media now. That stage is over. We are in a much advanced stage.
sportsfan33,
I think this bill will make through senate in one form or another. As many people think (especially those opposing the bill), it won't be face a hurdle in senate. Even in Senate judiciary committee, I don't see much opposition to this except maybe from Grassley. Also remember Senate Judiciary committee held the hearing for Dr Puneet Arora.
I definitely agree with you. It is a thin line here. But the main reason/intention behind media attention is to get Hispanic support since it does affect FB category visas.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Plus we already know both the parties support legal immigration reform and as it is bi-partisan in the House, my thinking behind media attention is to get bi-partisan support for S.1857. I may be wrong but i think there are many bills passed in the house and don't move in senate. Getting some media attention may bring some Hispanic support and thus making it desirable to move fast in senate to attract voters for both parties.
And i also agree with you about contacting lawmakers. We definitely need to do that this is just another side step to help 1857 move in senate.
I also have no problem in removing iReport if more people think this is not a good idea to generate media attention.
Let me know.
Thanks
My comments in RED
[QUOTE=sportsfan33;14529]Forgive me for looking ahead at this juncture, but I believe all would agree that this bill will almost surely pass in the House. If it passes with something like 80-90% ayes (as the I.V. is claiming), it will make the case that much stronger.
The advantage of the AGREE act is that it has 4 co-sponsors from both sides of the aisle, has gotten decent coverage in the media so far and may actually go somewhere in the Senate.
- Assuming the bill passes the House and that the president has a good pen on his desk to sign the bill (aka the president signing not being a problem), the dangers to this bill are as follows:
A. The bill never comes to the Senate for the vote. This is the most likely reason the bill will ultimately fail. I personally think the bill has generated enough of a stir for the Senate to consider it at least, but I am no political expert and cannot really make a judgment on this issue.
I have the same concern since it is proposed by a minority party in the senate and no dem. co-sponsors yet for S.1857
B. Someone is crazy enough to filibuster it. I personally think it's far fetched since the bill is noncontroversial, and no one will unnecessarily spend his/her political leverage by filibustering something that resembles an *administrative fix type of law change*.
It will be easy in the house but senate needs 60 votes. so again if we get bi-partisan support to this bill, i think with huge majority in the house passing the bill, it will be far from anyone using filibuster (as long as it makes to the floor for vote)
C. The American public takes this bill the wrong way and attacks the politicians for passing a bill that will result in more American job losses in these times. I think this is lesser possibility, but nevertheless a danger we should watch out for.
I totally agree. Since they are not adding new visas thus not allowing more immigrants, this shouldn't be a big issue.and in my understanding even so far FAIR organization hasn't opposed this bill yet, i don't think they will support it but as long as they don't oppose, it is good for us.
D. The bi-partisanship goes bad: Considering the fact that the super-committee has failed and bipartisan efforts will soon start disintegrating as the presidential campaigns heat up, the window is narrow for this bill to sail through while there is still some semblance of bi-partisanship left. At this point, the probability of this is almost NIL, but this is a time dependent variable and as time goes by, this probability increases.
I agree - possibility is NIL. Super-committee failed but the main reason was ideological differences between 2 parties on spending and taxes. This bill has no cost nor its related to taxes so that shouldn't be an issue.E.
The bill fails the Senate vote: I think we can discard this possibility.
The reason they have companion bills is that even if one gets defeated in either chamber the other bill remains alive.
HR 3012 is in so advance staged, and if it passes the House vote, then it will be sent to Senate. But the Senate bill S. 1857 is still in the subcommittee stage. So the senate leader might decide to directly vote on HR 3012 and keep aside S. 1857 for now.
It all depends on what Sen. Harry Reid decides to do.
Yup, if any big name from Senate (like Smith from the House Judiciary as co-sponsor), it will make passage of this bill in the Senate easy. I can think for few names, either Schumer, Leahy, coons or even McCain, Graham with one dem.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Quote:
Originally Posted by jackbrown_890
Don't worry about it. Just let it be there. If we need Hispanic support, then those working on the bill will to reach out to the Hispanic leadership. Once things get to media, advocacy goes out for a toss and we cannot control the discussion or the message. But I still applaud your initiative and leadership.
We should wait for Kanmani's expertise and the exact text of AGREE, but my understanding is that AGREE is basically an amalgamation of bills that have already passed the house (with the exception of HR3012, which will hopefully also pass shortly). So, AGREE wouldn't need to pass the house again if it doesn't have any amendments added. It would merely be a procedural issue to merge the several house bills into one and send AGREE to the president for his signature.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Agree- completely.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
If there is anyone from the following states interested in advocacy could you please send me a private message?
Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Idaho, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, New Mexico, Arkansas.
Tasks involved would be calling Senators and meeting their staff in person.
If you know anyone please engage them and get them to call their Senators and Congresspersons.
Please refrain from asking on facebook etc. Direct contact via email or phone or private message on this forum preferred
More positive news related to 3012. Still a long way to go but forward progress is good... atleast we'll know one way or the other sooner rather than later.Quote:
Originally Posted by leo4ever
Agree with others not going to media for this. Personally, I would like this bill to pass without much hype or hoopla. More public attention to this bill can raise more hurdles and throw more controversies. If media gets a hint of it and picks up the topic, people opposing it can twist the logic behind this bill, the way they want and then the entire focus will be disrupted.
Many of ROW people who are yet to file their GC in EB2 and EB3 are unaware of this. Many ROWers who filed their GCs in 2008, 2009, 2010 and early 2011 in EB2 have already been greened so they don't care about this bill (My EB2 colleagues from Pakistan, Iran, Syria, South Korea, Algeria, Russia, Nepal, Bangladesh, Jordan, Lebanon, Nigeria, England and Canada don't even know about this bill as they have already got their GCs and have stopped following any forums). The main opposition of this bill is coming from EB3ROW which is not a significant number compared to sum of EB2I, EB2C, EB3I, EB3C, EB3M and EB3P. That is why we should not provide more leverage to those who are already opposing it and not make other ROW aware about this bill who are yet to file their GCs.
I sincerely request everyone who knows about this bill to refrain from contacting any media houses. Let us leave that job to the people from ** who are involved in backdoor advocacy, and let them go public when they feel it is appropriate. Personally, I don't see any reason at all to go public even if this bill becomes a law. This bill has been presented mainly as a minor administrative fix for the glitch in the employment based green card system existing from long time. That's the way it should be kept and presented also.
Keeping my fingers crossed. Hopefully, it will pass in the house smoothly.
Just thought of giving thanks to the forum and the participants for helping build an understanding and enlightening us on a topic very important to us. It will not get us GC sooner but thru with this clarity people have figured out what they should expect and when. It has reduced stress for me even before i was current and helped me get prepared once i was current. Thank you to all members for keeping it fun and informative which makes each one of us come back here each day just like i would bow to god each day. Thank You.
The most important person in the picture now is Harry Reid - he decides when (or if) HR-3012 comes up for Senate vote if and when HR-3012 is passed by the house. It does seem like if the bill came up for a vote then it will pass. Perhaps we need to get ready for some kind of letter/petition/call campaign to put pressure on Dem leadership to put 3012 to a Senate vote after the House vote is done.
It would be a bad idea to prefer AGREE Act instead of HR-3012. AGREE has a lot more politics behind it and has a higher probability of stalling.
My only prayer at this time is the Dems in Senate should not say that any "immigration" should be CIR! the chances are very low.. but just rolling the sleeves and thinking that it can be other view points! Need to concentrate on Senators more now! Especially Key Senators
No need to do # 5. We need to convince him with the help of fellow Senators.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
It's up for a vote!!! 29th Nov at 6:30 pm. Looking forward to passage.
Nothing is sure when it comes to a legislation. People in know are always cautious. Everybody else is just uninformed. Senate path is actually very tough.
The Tuesday vote will really impact COs decision making for the next VB.
I don't think he's going to let 3012 affect anything until it is signed into law by Obama.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Agree. Besides he is already covered for next 6-8 months from backlog perspective. The likelihood of 2012 SOFAD being bigger than the backlog at the end of Sep 2012 is quite low IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
I believe Aman is bluffing. 90% sounds too good to be true. IMHO its just to encourage people to contribute. These days no issue has such unanimous support, let alone for HR 3012Quote:
Originally Posted by longgcque
I too agree. 90% is asking too much. But i do feel it should pass comfortably in the House. Senate is going to be a challenge.Quote:
Originally Posted by belmontboy
I don't think reaching 90% + support is that tough if you have every caucus on board in support of non controversial bills like 3012 (which has zero $ impact and zero increase/decrease in visa number).
Also IMHO people don't just start donating after seeing 90%....they would donate even if it scheduled..90% is just to show it has close to zero opposition.
Quote:
Originally Posted by belmontboy