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I am not sure how much to believe this guy. According to the article he is a 'leading U.S immigration attorney who publishes immigration articles' and till now he didn't know about quota in employment based category?
I understand that general American public can have no clue about legal immigration but it is surprising that an immigration attorney didn't know much about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
I don't think he implied that he didn't know about quota. He was alluding to how it may or may not include spouses and kids. That's how I understood it.Quote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
TRUE.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcpursuit
What he was saying is that there is no where in the law that dependents should count against the EB quota number: 140,000.
He is also refering to this letter which was sent to President by US law professors : https://pennstatelaw.psu.edu/_file/L...sor-Letter.pdf
Overall I see there is a positive and negative news in that article and the positive news is that Obama has a easy task to fix this broken immigration with a small EO and the negative news is that EB2-India will nomore get any spillover from EB1 or EB5 in future.
INA 245(b) appears to require AOS dependents to count against the preference allocation, since each individual (whether primary or dependent) must currently file a separate I-485. Employment Based applications come under 203(b).Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Quote:
(b) Upon the approval of an application for adjustment made under subsection (a), the Attorney General shall record the alien's lawful admission for permanent residence as of the date the order of the Attorney General approving the application for the adjustment of status is made, and the Secretary of State shall reduce by one the number of the preference visas authorized to be issued under sections 202 and 203 within the class to which the alien is chargeable for the fiscal year then current.
The November VB has been released.
EB2-I retrogresses to a COD of 15FEB05.
D. INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE
Increased demand in the INDIA Employment-based Second preference category has required the retrogression of this cut-off date to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.
E. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)
Worldwide dates:
F1: Two to three weeks
F2A: Three to five weeks
F2B: Six to eight weeks
F3: One to three weeks
F4: Two or four weeks
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
Employment First: Current
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China: Three to five weeks
India: No forward movement
Employment Third:
Worldwide: Continued rapid forward movement for the next several months. After such rapid advance of the cut-off date applicant demand for number use, particularly for adjustment of status cases, is expected to increase significantly. Once such demand begins to materialize at a greater rate it will impact this cut-off date situation.
China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement is likely to result in increased demand which may require "corrective" action possibly as early as February.
India: Little if any movement
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date
Philippines: Will remain at the worldwide date. Increased demand may require "corrective" action at some point later in the fiscal year.
Employment Fourth: Current
Employment Fifth: Current
The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen during each of the next three months based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.
It is interesting and unfortunate to see that CO retrogressed EB2I based on 8 days of data - if that. As I have said earlier - this is going to be a real bad year for EB2I. So people shouldn't expect any miracles.
ROW on the other hand is cruising ahead and the story that YTeleven put forth the other day confirmed - why. Just like EB3IC even EB3ROW is seeing heavy porting.
So as one can see now EB3 as a category is disappearing and most of hte demand is shifting to EB2. Funnily - the reason why demand is shifting to EB2 itself is disappearing. All the extra visas that used to come to EB2 from EB1 and EB5 - are going to dry up - at least this year. That's why I am calling it a bad year.
I just hope I am terribly wrong and one of many things happen - i.e.
1. Suddenly FB spillover is available
2. ROW demand drops.
3. Or better yet Executive Order on family members comes in.
The 3rd one will truly transform EB category. Brace for a tough year friends. My apologies for the tough forecast.
Hmm... things seem as per expected. No surprises. Winter hibernation begins with the retrogression.
EB3ROW moved by 8 months. That's encouraging. They will cross the high water mark next VB at this speed. Then new inventory, and then Current - and then horizontial spillover to EB3I - How exciting! Something to look forward to in this FY beyond all the gloom and doom coming up everyday.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fedup14
Q - the current and expected rapid movement in EB3ROW will surely cut down EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting. There may have been significant porting there until last year - but its clear now that it is only a matter of months before EB3ROW waiting vanishes away. So there is no incentive for any new porting from EB3ROW to EB2ROW especially considering the PERM situation.
I would consider the EB3 situation a tailwind. Low porting to EB2ROW and once some horizontal spillover reaches EB3I later this FY, then low porting to EB2I as well.
This is perhaps too early to worry about it - but we might reach a situation in couple of years when EB3 demand will be less than its quota. Unfortunately, the current law does not provide for any vertical spillover FROM EB3. What will happen to those spare visas if and when we do have spare visas in EB3 category?
Ideally, they should flow up to EB1 - just like EB4 and EB5 spare visas. However, it is my understanding (IIRC Spec posted this some time back) that the current law does not provide for that.
I don't think EB3 visas can go waste in future. It will happen similar to what happened with EB2-C where people downgraded to EB-3. There will be lot more cases in EB-2 than EB-3, very few apply in EB-3 these days.
Even some employers who are applying in EB-3 now to prolong the stay of the employee with the company will then file in EB-2.
All wasted EB visas --> FB.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
We were the beneficiaries of this the last couple of years. If there was a feedback loop within FB in a similar manner, several retrogressed FB categories would have used those 28K visas that instead went to us.
If visas are wasted in EB3, they will unfortunately go to FB. But I think this won't happen due to the number of pending EB3I cases in the next 2-3 years.
Folks Nov VB is out and retrogression is back (15-FEB-05).
http://travel.state.gov/content/visa...mber-2014.html
Q,Gurus,
Does Gc dream over for me in 2014?
Oh I am sorry ... as far as 2014 is concerned you still have 20 days to go. So you may still get it. So work hard. Followup with USCIS. Harrass them.Quote:
Originally Posted by helooo
When can we expect Oct '14 inventory? My PD is July 2009 and yet to file I-485. I'm hoping I can file it in FY '15 at least.
This is very disappointing to me, I was hoping this year dates would move to second half of 2009, so DOS will moved dates beyond 01-May-2010 in FY'15 to build inventory, so at least we can file I-485 next year. Looks like I have to wait another 2-3 yrs. at least to get EAD or AC21 eligibility. It is very frustrating, I was more conservative as with most post on this forum, but I was little optimistic , when even most conservative Attorney firms stating the date may advance (July/Sept 2010) during 2012.
But the date moved till 01-May-2010, lucky most of people were able to apply I-485 and eligible for AC21.
I am working with Top networking company , with each year layoff, the career/work/life became miserable. To switch other employer, I have to restart the whole GC process PERM & I-140, with delays in PERM processing, my situation may be falling from pan to fire :).
But looks like the more consumption of EB2ROW, no spill over from EB1/EB5 or FB putting dark picture for next year.
I am following this forum last 3-4 yrs, 2-3 times a week, mostly silent viewer.
Thanks you all for your projections and calculations. Sometimes I feel, these numbers are too conservative, but they more are less inline with Reality.
Just want vent my frustration… so I feel relived for this moment .. re focus on my work :).
It's usually published around early/mid November.Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmys
I found this in murthy weekly bulletin..
The DOS reports that, for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), approximately 15,000 to 17,000 "extra" numbers were made available to EB2 India. The amount of such excess numbers potentially available towards the end of FY15 depends upon usage and demand levels in the other categories during the fiscal year.
Does this mean 15 to 17k spill available for next year FY15. Confusing statement though.
I'm not sure how that is confusing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Raj0687
It is saying that:
a) 15-17k SO was available to EB2-I in FY2014 (last year) and that;
b) the amount of SO that will be available to EB2-I in FY2015 (this year) will depend entirely on how many visas other Categories and Countries use in FY2015.
It's not making any statement about how much SO might be available in FY2015.
Reading between the lines, given the comments about other Categories and Countries in the article, you might deduce that the amount of SO in FY2015 is expected to be less than was available in FY2014.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
That's really scary. The combination of left overs prior to May 1, 2009 and less spillover in FY`15.
Hello Gurus,
I am pretty much new to the number crunching analysis but have been checking the posts by Spec, Q and all other experts reg EB2 India PD movement.
I guess what I would like to know (even though we just start 2015 fiscal yr) is what's the worst case scenario and best case scenario for EB2 India PD movement?
Thank you
eb2sep09I,Quote:
Originally Posted by eb2sep09I
Welcome to the forum.
My initial thoughts are on page 1 of this thread.
Currently, I see no reason to change them. It's likely to be a very difficult year for EB2-I.
Oct 2014 approvals update from trackitt:
Total: 38
TSC - 19
NSC - 19
Or you can look here for the figures based on those who have updated their Trackitt profile.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I am posting here but moderators please feel free to move it. I filed for renewal for ead ap combo in October online. I have been doing this for the last 6 yrs but for the first time I have got a biometrics notice for this time's renewal. I had done my biometrics in 2007 when the dates had opened up. Just curious to know what is going on, is this normal or does it indicate something wrong? I am eb3 2007 India so no such thing as getting current in the near future and hence the question. Thanks
I don't think anything is wrong but I'd definitely call USCIS and ask. You pretty much have to get it done as it very well could have expired.Quote:
Originally Posted by anuprab
Gurus, Senseis and Other Senior Members,
I have been a frequent reader of your posts but I have not posted much. I did see the new VB and read up on all your opinions and calculations. General consensus is, EB2I is facing more headwinds, even from the tail side thus leading to what amounts to be a sh*tty year. I'm sure this is not the first time in recent history that this has happened. So, do bad years generally lead to better ones or do things go from bad to worse and then worst before changing course? Long story short: Can we expect ANYTHING positive in the next FY (FY 2016) for EB2I? If so, (And I know this is asking you to be Nostradamus) what do you see happening? I will take anything I can get with more than just a grain of salt :)
Some days the wait doesn't seem so bad. Then there are those days when you wanna smack BO and the morons on the hill up the head for the lack of rational actions and more importantly: balls..
I agree with you totally. For me it seems like I have been pedaling a bike which is stationary for the last 10 yrs. Everything is on hold in the name of the elusive gc!. I hope things don't turn out to be bad for EB2 India and some miracle happens eg EO or more than expected spillover. since nothing is in our hands I am keeping the faith and hoping something good comes out of all the waiting!Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowfax4
Let us recap how EB2I escaped the last 4 years:Quote:
Originally Posted by Shadowfax4
2011: Heavy EB2-ROW but amazing spillover from EB1 (almost 16K that year) + almost 7.5K spillover from EB5
2012: Demand cliff. EB2-I received 6K more than it should have.
2013: EB1 and EB2-ROW almost running full, but tremendous FB spillover and some spillover from EB4/5.
2014: EB1 and EB5 almost running full but quite a bit from FB and amazing spillover from EB2-ROW due to PERM slowdowns.
Heading forward:
EB5 is certainly off the table.
EB1 demand seems to be increasing year over year.
EB4 is also off the table.
FB spillover is possibly not there.
EB2-ROW is the only hope. The headwind is heavy PERMs in Q3/4 this year. Tailwind is increased PERM slowdown.
I don't know what to expect this coming year and going forward. It seems a lot of demand from India is shifting to EB1 (I reserve my temptation to use choice words to describe this phenomenon). Other traditionally spillover yielding categories seem to be gobbling up all numbers. However we don't know if it's going to continue in the long or even short term.
Another phenomenon is that with EB3-ROW fast advance, it's possible EB3I may get some spillover numbers and that may reduce porting drastically.
Conclusion: 2015 looks dicey but I won't rule out brighter prospects 2016 onwards.
P.S. The number of approvals in October is alarmingly low. That does not bode well for 2015 as of now.
Edit: EB2I received approximately the following over the last 4 years:
2011: 23K
2012: 17K
2013: 19K
2014: 19-21K (estimated)
So last 4 years, 80K visas have been given out in this category! Minus 12K regular quota, that's a pure spillover of 68K. The spillover is also remarkably similar and it's almost the same in 2 year windows 2011-12 and 2013-14.
Over the last 2 years, pure spillover was almost 34K. 20K of that came from FB and more than 10K came because of PERM slowdowns. You can clearly see that without these two sources, EB2I would be a Titanic by now. EB1/4/5 yielded hardly 5K spillover over the last 2 years by all accounts. These categories are already operating at the edge and are just a small changed dynamic away from retrogression. In EB1, EB1CI will eventually retrogress if left unchecked. EB5 is going to be retrogressed now (confirmed) because of China. I don't know much about EB4 but CO made a specific comment saying that even EB4 was going to see increased demand and possible retrogression.
Unfortunately, if all factors converge together, EB2I will remain retrogressed over the entire FY 2015. That's the worst case scenario. This scenario was actually feared back in early 2013 before Spec came up with the FB spillover news. That was followed by Ted Cruz doing us an indirect favor by shutting down the government and affecting the PERMs in a grand fashion. These two sources have driven the EB2I locomotive the last 2 years.
Let's hope and pray that EB2I has at least positive movement in FY 2015.
Excellent post Sports. Thank you for taking the time to document past few years so well.
Sportsfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Kudos on the great post and for the explanation! We are literally 2 weeks into FY2015 and I've given up hopes for this year. I was looking for insights into FY2016, but when FY2015 by itself is a crap shoot, I don't think it's fair to expect predictions from anybody this early! :) On the flip side, PERM has continually been slow since the Cruz-down of last year even though the economy has picked up marginally. Wishing for that to continue is the same as wishing ill upon your own brethren because hey! they're waiting in line just like we did. But we have little to no choice in this issue. Hope The President can step up and do something for the legal immigrants this year/early next.
It seems like I wake up every day with one or other nightmare and feel I am never going to get greened. I have a question and need help from experts. MY husband's perm was filed with location as NYC. His office changed to a different address but still in NYC. Will this require a new PERM to be filed again ?
It all depends on if the new address falls under the same Metropolitan Statistical Area. Even if the new address is 15-20 miles away, sometimes it would fall into another MSA which needs a new PERM to be filed.Quote:
Originally Posted by anuprab
This is not my knowledge but that's what I have been told by Fragomen recently as I bumped into the same issue.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area
Thanks I hope we don't have to do it again. It just moved from Broadway in NYC to SoHo NYC.Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09
I disagree with this statement. Ted Cruz indirectly did us a great disfavor, not a favor. If he did not shutdown the Government, then there would have been no new budget deal and sequestration would have been in effect. PERMs would have further slowed down to a trickle (compared to 2013) and more spillover would have accrued to EB2I in 2014. We would have been looking at atleast Jan 2010 EB2I by now.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Broadway is a loooonnnng road so "Broadway in NYC" is not saying much .. unless of course you meant the Theater district. Regardless, i'm almost certain there's no need for a new PERM. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by anuprab
sportsfan,
Excellent post.
Some comments (not a lot, because you were so comprehensive).
6k of that SO was over and above what pure spillover would have allowed (2k in FY2012 and 4k in FY2013). It resulted from EB2-I effectively using EB3 quota and the overuse of EB as a whole in FY2013.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
It would not just be EB1C-I.Quote:
In EB1, EB1CI will eventually retrogress if left unchecked.
There are no sub allocations within EB1, so all of EB1-I would retrogress.
In addition, since they are also using numbers above 7%, EB1-C would also have to retrogress.
It's interesting that CO made a comment about EB4, since he never usually mentions it.
If use in EB4 is increasing (and finally has to retrogress), the current demand pattern would virtually guarantee retrogression (admittedly very late in the FY) of EB1-IC in the absence of FB visas. The demand last year appears to have been well in excess of the 40k normally available. EB1 had 43k available last year (plus EB4/EB5 spare visas) - maybe 46-47k in total, so retrogression was never likely. EB5 spare visas have already disappeared and a loss of the EB4 contribution to EB1 could be bad news for them. 40k may no longer be sufficient.
It's interesting that there have been so many EB1C approvals at the beginning of the year. It almost suggests they were held back so as not to count against the FY2014 numbers (takes off tin foil hat).
Approvals at the beginning of the year have been slower than normal for all Categories (not just EB2-I), other than EB1. I wonder why USCIS are being so lethargic. The Cut Off Dates in effect should be producing far more approvals.
yes vizcard thanks so much. it was on 7th Avenue. Soho and 7th should be same MSA! In fact when I researched the NYC MSA area is pretty big. I think I am going crazy. The office changed maybe 9 months back and here I am getting up one fine day and thinking does he need a new PERM and if he does we are screwed. Some days I get nightmare that I missed filing my EAD on time...such is life while waiting for a greencard!Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
My rule was "when in doubt, email the lawyers". Let them earn their $1000 / hr fee. I used to contact them so much that the paralegal assigned to my case used to talk about vacations we took :)Quote:
Originally Posted by anuprab