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I think this is not correct. You can move to H1 as long as its valid. And H1 can be renewed until final decision on I485.Quote:
Originally Posted by coolguy
If AC21 is used then the application becomes invalid only if the employer revokes I-140 based on fraudulent info/data.
Experts please confirm.
I rather think otherwise. Slow movement gives ample opportunity for porting to use as much, before the dates forward. If a big movement happens then the most of the visa will be consumed by pre-adjucated applications.Quote:
Originally Posted by willywonka
What does significant salary change mean with regard to AC21? If one gets a job at another company that pays 40% more salary for the same position, would that casue the AC21 to be denieD?Quote:
Originally Posted by GCKnowHow
User nt2012 with PD Sep 2008 EB2 recieved I-485 CPO mail ?!!??
Source? Link?? Did I miss something somewhere???
Quote:
Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid
I do not have direct experience of this - but based on what I have read, if your job is in a similar area, then career progression (and hence more money) is not a problem. Even less salary is not a problem by itself (for example - if you move to a less expensive city). Look up Murthy's FAQ on AC21 - it is very informative. Also - I believe denials of AC21 are rare and happens only in egregious cases.
Quote:
Originally Posted by self.coach
I think it is probably significant that the user used the phrase:Quote:
Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid
That suggests that they actually only had a document mailed to them, not actually a Card Production. it doesn't particularly suggest an approval to me.Quote:
Posted by nt2012 (25) 34 minutes ago
I got an SMS this afternoon for my and my wife I-485 from TSC stating that Card Production Ordered and mailed today.
It is trackkit.
I checked this guy's profile and he mentioned I-140 approval date Sep 2008 and his PD is also Sep 2008 ?!?!? Something is not correct. Typo?
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
..and nt2012 is already under interrogation on trackkit! :)
very well said. if they choose not to regulate porting or have some sort of differenciator EB2-I will cease to be much different from EB3-I.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Q - you should add like buttons - a lot of posts from the gurus will surely rack up some numbers - might reduce some thank you clean ups too :)
mbasense - the like buttons on our forum is the star you see under each post. Unfortunately it is not very intuitive but it works exactly like the "like" buttons you are referring to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mbasense
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5779.html
No movement for EB2-I
EB2-I No movement
EB2-C 1.5 months movement
ROW- Current
ROW is C and China moves by 3 months and India surprisingly dates stay the same
Quote:
Originally Posted by self.coach
See if you find this AC21 Discussion useful.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Either CO got information from USCIS that they are going to provide 250 visas for PDs prior to Sep 2004--Or--CO wants to gauge porting demand for October and then move dates in November(Dec VB) based on October porting demand--new portings added in month of October.Quote:
Originally Posted by ajaydons
I belive next month we should see some movement for India Eb2 touching 2005. China should/will move close to 2008.
Now because ROW is current can we expect some miracles in last 2 quarters?
India should easily reach into 2007 Dec ... but if it will be in one month or 2 or 6 - can't say. By Sep 2013 EB2I should be in late 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
November bulletin is out. EB2I is at 1st Sept 04. No change.
EB2C : 1st Sept 2007.
EB2 ROW : Current
Friends I feel the VB is just fine. EB2 ROW is current which is good I think they should be quite literally able to clean out all EB2 ROW backlog. Approvals are coming quite steadily for both EB1 and EB2 ROW. EB2 China is also moving. Eb2 India will be just fine when the spillover starts in May 2013 until then I believe we should not be reading the dates literally because they are based on 250 per month. I do however believe that we will have 6K nett porting this year however atleast 2K of that should be attributed to the last year this will be significant in light of the fact that we are expecting reduced SOFAD this year. EB3-I anyone beyond Jan 2003 should definitely explore porting to get to GC faster in absence of any reforms.
EB2-ROW - C is a huge relief..It reduces the "EB2 variables" to India and China. EB2-C is at a comfortable date, which EB2-I can easily catch up, barring any catastrophic rise in other visa numbers. If we assume 3k porting applications, prior to Sept. 1st 2007, it would take 6268 visas (2800 Regular quota visas+ SOFAD of 3468).
EB2-C would be a good date to follow moving forward. Assuming porting EB3C-EB2C porting is 0, just with its regular allocation, EB2-C will reach mid-August 2008. With a 3k porting estimate, EB2-I would need roughly 18600 vias (SO of roughly 16k).
I had a question about EB2-ROW being Current..
EB2-ROW gets roughly 2750 visas per month.
A COD for EB2-ROW (01/01/2009) was put in place in the July bulletin.In the October visa bulletin, a COD of 01/01/2012 was put in place.
So it is safe to assume that whatever applications were pending between 01/01/2009-01/01/2012, were processed and approved before the Fiscal Year began. (possibly by the 5k visas received from FB).
EB2-ROW is C for the November bulletin.So the 5500 odd visas that were allocated to EB2-ROW this year ( 2750 each for Oct. and November), were enough to take care of their demand.
Even if we assume that these 5500 visas are strictly the cases between July and October, EB2-ROW demand is not more than 22k visas. Add to that the 5600 visas allocated to EB2-IC. Does that mean, we can expect a spillover of at least 8-10k from EB2-ROW?
Hi Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
It seems like CO is moving dates based on 250 per month. But even then, we should have seen dates still move (maybe by few months). Do we still have 250 more cases before Sep 2004 (after 250 that got or will be approved in Oct). Looks like porting is killing all the monthly quota.
Not an expert but here is my take.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
VB was released on October 12th from Oct1-Oct10 there could have been some new porting numbers(probably<100) added to DD compared to previous month, that might have influenced in not moving PD. If in 10 days some X new porting numbers were added to DD then there is a fair chance for that number to become 2X by Nov1, that could be the reason for not moving PD.
I'm sorry, I didn't understand the calculation.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
1. The ~6k Demand, that showed up in the Oct. Demand Data is the Carried Over Demand, correct?
2. Assuming the Demand is roughly 2k per month, the Demand for the month of November should have been 5300 (6000 (Carry Over) + 2000 (Oct. Demand) - 2700 (EB2-ROW quota) = 5300).
3. The Demand Shows up as 1650. It could mean either A. EB2-ROW received an excess of ~3.7k (5.3-1.6) visas in the month of October. Or B.The Residual Demand for October and Project November Demand Combined was 1050 (6000 -2700 (Oct.) - 2700 (Nov.) + 1050 = 1650).
The second scenario seems too good to be true and the first seems highly unlikely. What do you think?
My take on this
As it will be difficult to estimate or predict demand for last 2-3 months, in which case those might be added back to EB2-I as spill over. Hence my guesstimate would be around 10K from EB2-ROW. May be at the expense of them being unavailable to EB2-ROW for 1-2 months!
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Thanks sportsfan on ROW demand explanation - makes sense. How could one guess the EB-1 demand, given the fact that, it is not mentioned in the demand data.
Hopefully 485 pending inventory that will be released(this month?) will give us some clue to Eb1 trends?
ROW PERMs for FY-2012
The below links show a total of 67K PERMs filed in 2012. Subtracting 10K withdrawn and denied applications we get 57K which will ultimately get certified (52K are already certified, rest are pending). Of these 62% (35K) would be India and China, leaving 22K for ROW. This includes both EB2 and EB3.
http://www.kidambi.com/resources/per...ics%202012.pdf
http://www.murthy.com/2012/10/05/dol...on-statistics/
Spec, i was comparing this number with your facts and data numbers for 2010 and 2011. Those are calender years so will be slightly off but since both are 12 months of data i guess they can still be compared for purposes of getting the trend. Both those years have 18-19K of PERMs for ROW. So this indicates slight increase in ROW-PERM filings in 2012.
Using a transformation ratio of 1 this should result in 22K EB2-ROW I-485s (some filed in 2012 and some in 2013). This should leave room for 10-12K spillover from EB2-ROW (on average). Will you agree or am i missing something. I think Q also had a similar question with past year ROW PERM data.
Thanks for the input,Ghostwriter.. It raises hopes for a lot of folks..Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
EB3I is unlikely to get any spillover from anywhere. When, for example, EB3ROW cliff reaches, EB3ROW dates will be moved forward to get new inventory just like they did for EB2IC, preventing any horizontal spillover to EB3I. As far as any vertical spillover is concerned - it is not happening any way because of EB2IC - and even if some did reach EB3 some time in future, they will first go to EB3ROW before reaching EB3IC because of the 7% rule.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Even though EB2I did not move in this VB, I am quite fine with it. EB2ROW getting to C is quite significant - that means horizontal spillovers are now accumulating and will flow to EB2I whenever CO decides to act on it (quarterly spillovers hopefully - then start of the new quarter - the Jan VB).
imdeng - you are right. Unfortunately that is true. The only way EB3I can receive any spillover is if EB3ROWMP is current. Even if ROW faces cliff - they will advance the dates. Even if they don't - EB3M has huge CP demand. So most of the spillover if any will go to EB3P.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
As disheartening as it may sound, I doubt CO will go for QSP, as early as Jan. With his plate full with EB2-IC and with lessons learnt last year, I believe CO will move dates conservatively, until he is absolutely sure he doesn't have to put a COD on EB2-ROW or EB1. I think that point of comfort would come around May/June.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
On the other hand - it is a possibility that the EB3M/P/ROW density is not very high post 07/07. So a path to EB3ROW being current some time in future is possible. I believe the ratio of EB3 to EB2 has declined after 07/07 and the transient factors that drove up the EB3 demand (like nurses from P, the big nurse shortage is over) have subsided. Plus the recession might have caused some real demand destruction there. We will know how this will turn out as we get visibility on the post-07/07 demand for EB3ROW/M/P in a few months.
Update: BTW - looking at Spec's collection of PERM data for ROW/M/P, the number of PERMs have declined drastically. From 44K for 2007 PDs to just 18K for 2011 PDs. However, both 2007 and 2008 are pretty dense - so it is a couple years at least before the low density will show up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks Sandeep.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandeep11
Some people have pointed out that the demand data did reduce by 250 however the dates did not move. The only explanation is that the agencies still feel that 250 porting cases can still come up before Sep 2004 with new porting related i140's being approved and interfiling. So essentially its a case of a moving target with the demand data reduction not being able to truly represent the situation. Unfortunately this will keep going on for a few months till the May - Jul. This actually is the default mode of operation (Very Conservative Movement) what we saw last year was an exception as an inventory had to be created. The big silver lining of this bulletin is that EB2 ROW is now current. Porting has not really increased however last year probably only 50% porting cases saw approval due to dates going to unavailable.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
The Demand Data provide a good hint of how much porting is going on:
EB3I fell by 425. EB-3I before 2003 dropped by 175 - if you assume all of these were "charged" to EB3, then the difference 425-175 equals 250.
Therefore there is a minimum of 250 porting cases being approved for EB3 I
One caveat: EB3 ROW dropped by 1275 before 2007, but only by 1200 before 2012. This means applicants may be adding dependents (such as follow to join) or 2007 cases are being preapproved even at this late date. The same may be happening on EB3 I, which would "mask" the true size of porting.
Q/ Spec/ Gurus ,
Exactly what month or range of months do we predict EB2-India to reach or cross Dec 07
My opinion is that if December 2007- when it comes will take the dates up to atleast mid 2008 at one shot. MY guess is January/February 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
Are we expecting Quarterly Spill beginning second quarter ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat