2010 PERM APPROVALS Discussion

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

Spectator, Thanks for the detailed post.

Quick questions:
When you/Q mean 12K ROW backlog? you mean PERM backlog? because, if it's 485 then the Visa would already be accounted for and we don't need to double count.
My take:
Assuming that PERM applications from 04/01/2010 in ROW are the only ones in ROW that need Visa allocation:
There are ~17,500 ROW applications: of which if 70% are EB2: Then this will result in 13125 EB2 PERM.
Resulting number of 485 apps: 13125 * 2.2 = 28875
I see that there'd be a min of 6 k Fall-across here? ( I thought mine was very conservative :))

PS: IMO, any ROW PERM certified before 03/31/2010 & not filed 140+485 is automatically expired. Since ROW was always current last year, Visa number is allocated as soon as the 485 app comes through.

leo07,

Backlog is probably not the best description. although I can't think of another.

The 12k refers to EB2-ROW I-485s that will be authorized in FY2011 as a result of PERM approvals granted in the last 4 months of FY2010, since there wasn't time to process them in FY2010, if it takes 4 months to do so. In my calculations, I actually come to a figure of 10k, but discuss why it might be higher. So it isn't double counting.

Then there are the approvals in FY2011 that result from PERM approvals in the first 8 months of FY2011,

There is always an element of "backlog" that flows through to the next year, since I-485 approvals are not instantaneous upon PERM approval.

As an example, using the 24.5 k figure for EB2-ROW approvals in FY2010, 4.5K were from PERMs approved in FY2009 (which also reflects the low number that year) and 20k were from PERMs approved in FY2010.

Quote:

PS: IMO, any ROW PERM certified before 03/31/2010 & not filed 140+485 is automatically expired. Since ROW was always current last year, Visa number is allocated as soon as the 485 app comes through.

Your first point assumes there is a foolproof feedback loop from USCIS to DOL. I don't think that exists.

A Visa number is not requested as soon as the I-485 application is received. It is only requested when the I-485 has been evaluated and found to be non-deniable. Since this is done electronically and is instant, effectively the Visa is not requested until the time of approval. Therefore there is a 4 month lag from PERM approval and consequent I-140/I485 submission to approval.

Quote:

Assuming that PERM applications from 04/01/2010 in ROW are the only ones in ROW that need Visa allocation:
There are ~17,500 ROW applications: of which if 70% are EB2: Then this will result in 13125 EB2 PERM.
Resulting number of 485 apps: 13125 * 2.2 = 28875

I am not sure where you are deriving these figures from.

ALL Certified + Certified Expired >= 04/01/2010 = 35,286
ROW Certified + Certified Expired >= 04/01/2010 = 14,207
70% seems too high a % for EB2 applications.

There are 17,563 total Certified Expired ROW of all dates.