yes Uiiiiimaaaaa = You I and mama....altogether explaining the pain of waiting for GC to your mama = UiiiiiiiiimaaaaaQuote:
Originally Posted by leo4ever
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yes Uiiiiimaaaaa = You I and mama....altogether explaining the pain of waiting for GC to your mama = UiiiiiiiiimaaaaaQuote:
Originally Posted by leo4ever
mama meaning mother in american.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
just checking to see if any PWMB who got there GC approval..?
Guys, this was just now posted by CM on http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...54972175087536
Here is an update from our lawyer friend.
At this point his law firm does not have any specific update on the movement for the next visa bulletin movement and strategy of DOS. As per him from whatever he has gathered in past few weeks (nothing officially conveyed to them), he believes that “DOS strategically would like not to retrogress cut-off dates for EB2 India and China as long as possible, but rather move dates such that they can intake new demand without using excessive visa numbers than allowed. In retrospective, this means that next bulletin can bring none to one month movement at most, with bigger movement around December and January 2012 visa bulletin, where unused visas from current quarterly spillover and next quarterly spillover could be used rationally. Once that is done, cut-off dates may stall or retrogress based on total demand. Cut-off date for EB3- category will move as posted on the visa bulletin. EB3- ROW, Mexico and Philippines would move together for quite some time. Expected VB released date is Friday, October 7th”
CM – Information is posted as shared. Please take it at your own discretion. Good Luck.
Thank you for sharing. Of late, this guy's lawyer has been accurate. But this is the first time I am seeing he is saying it's just his belief and not semi-official. Otherwise his lawyer friend is more confident.
Only rationale behind not doing the logic the lawyer friend is saying, is that I-485 AOS takes time to process. If they do a huge move, build inventory, and then do quarterly SO, that's very safe.
Biggest good thing to know is that his lawyer friend also feels VB release date is October 7th friday, as we analysed here on this forum earlier today.
Also if indeed this is done, it would be a big disadvantage, as the moves will be very calibrated and smaller, people would lose out on EAD/AP benefits, and DOS would be a mercy of USCIS 485 processing times.
Looking at the current backlog of USCIS, I feel very surprised that DOS would trust USCIS to process 485s in 3 months.
So this VB is the litmus test for DOS strategy. If they don't move or do a month move, we know where their intentions lie. But their truest intentions even in this case can only be known in their next (or next to next) quarter move then, where in they really face situation of no inventory, just relying on small moves to make inventory quarter by quarter basis.
Also this would really turn out bad in the worst case SOFAD scenarios, as people who were expected to get EAD/AP, many of them would miss out.
Positive is that many people would get GC faster rather than wait for a year always.
I believe quarterly SO is good idea, but they should always build up inventories in advance. Now that would be smart and beneficial.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Yes, I agree Nishant...His lawyer has been quite accurate recently but he doesn't sound confident this time. 3-4 more days to go and we will know the answer.
Well summarized.I totally agree on all points.If the news is true DOS is trusting USCIS to work with 485 apps in a very short amount of time and this would be bad news for end of the year (2007 and early 2008) applicants.They would miss out on chance to file for EAD this FY.
Well here it begins again....Friday (7th) should be a nailbiter . I would pray the gates are opened for a lot more people to atleast file 485 .
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Did you mean this CY (Calendar Year) instead?Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
10102007
Thanks for catching that.Yes meant CY .However if USCIS moves the dates very slowly without retogressing the dates ...the forward movement will be very unpredictable. CO would not have added the note about possible pipeline building and retrogression in the previous bulletin if he had no intention of doing the pipeline building.
Anywaz right now the ball is in their court.It will be tough to sleep properly for the next few days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10102007
Exactly. Already had a restless one last night.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
DOS moved date worth of 8k till July 2007. Regular quota is 5.6k for EB2 IC. DOS needs 1.4k more + CP demand from post August 2007.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
They can't allocate that 1.4k right now in middle of first qtr. Next month which is end of first q , they will get 2-3k as spill over from Q1. That they will use to satisfy 1.4k demand from this month and then they will assign rest to CP cases which will allow them to advance dates. so date will not move in Nov but will do rapid movement in Dec bulletin. By then we are done with q1 so that movement will be 6-10 months.
I too see it that way. But as the other folks have mentioned, it will be a challenge to relax and not think about Friday. I wish that at the end of current FY (ie. Sep 2012), the dates would at least be at June 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_usa
Yes, this can be a theory too.Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_usa
My only solace is as gcseeker said, the wording by CO in the last VB did sound like he wants to build pipeline, and that movement was not the last, but will continue.
Now only thing we can do is propose theories, try to read their minds, and spend restless nights till friday. And god forbid, if bulletin dont come out on friday, then till tuesday, a weekend and a monday to pass in between.
Nishant
I guess am not alone in feeling this way :).Though would not wish these sleepless nights on anybody.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
10102007
I hope it moves till June2008 and gives releif to many more.
This forum is an godsend and I say this sincerely from the bottom of my heart.This is the picture I am always reminded of when I browse this forum.Quote:
Originally Posted by 10102007
It is just time to wait now...I guess.
http://www.movieposterdb.com/posters...6_e5953fcb.jpg
10102007, love your new avatar... glad to see another animal lover on this forum :)
Gcseeker, btw I loved your old avatar... but love the Buddha too.
Geez...everyone is changing their avatars with the new thread... hmmm..maybe I should change mine too.
Guys, remember...Soggadu's golden words ... aya to aya..baki saab maya...let's hope for the best and leave the rest !!!
Thanks Monica. After I came to the US, my parents brought a dog (yes...replaced me with one) and she is now a very integral part of the family. Last time when I went to India, I did not buy anything for my parents, but loaded my suitcases with food and goodies for her. She takes care of my parents and she keeps them happy and busy - which is something that I'm unable to do. I will forever be indebted to her.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Sorry...getting a bit emotional here...ok...back to the waiting game.
OMG ! Same story here..* tears *Quote:
Originally Posted by 10102007
I also buy tons of stuff for mine everytime, forever indebted to them..aren't we ?
arreee.. guys , please chodo na ( please leave it ). Waise hi Nov VB ka itna tension hai( so much tension in anticipation of Nov Vb)..... Poor Nishant, Gc seeker, 10102007 and me are getting sleepless nights.... Soggadu's changed his avatar from dancing prince to traumatized James Bond :(
rahem karo USCIS ( mercy please USCIS, before we all go crazy )
Tears!!! My dear friend, I hope you can get your GC ASAP and visit your parents more often! I feel so sad to read your story! I haven't been back to China for four years and I am suffering everyday, but I have to wait for my GC before travelling back.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10102007
Folks - I have this thread in my Firefox Bookmarks - and as you would expect - the bookmark opens the first page (or a specific page if you bookmark that page) - does anyone know whether it is possible to open the last page every time?
Also - wouldn't it be better for the thread to be in reverse chrono order - like a blog - latest entry on top.
Lastly, Q - you have done an admirable job of keeping this place conducive to a free and frank discussion without much noise or hate. People are just angry and frustrated and sometimes it comes out as trolling/flaming/hate/etc. - don't let it get to you.
imdeng
I am not a tech person. But I use this shortcut to open the last page in IE . Right click the bookmark , goto properties, goto the line where it stores as link, change the page number to 100 or 200 save. Pls check with firefox , I checked it seem like working.
imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
That is something you can set for yourself.
When you are logged in, go to Settings (top right of the page).
Choose General Setting on the left hand side.
Set Thread Display Mode to Linear - Newest First.
Voila!
PS Even quicker is Forum Actions - General Settings
U are smart. Was just about to say that change the page number to a very high number that dont exist. However u might miss out on the good stuff in between. It's your preference.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Should we be expecting USCIS I485 inventory around Oct 1st week?
We saw one on 1st Oct 2010.
Sorry, just realized its a repost..plz ignore.
Hi indeng,
At the end of the url, where it says /page1 or /page2, etc, change your book mark to /page1000. That way it will always take you to the max page. It will take a while for us to hit 1000pages anyways.
Example,
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...-2012/page1000
Hope this helps.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Bookmark this page.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Was checking out a few other forums and the general consensus is that the movement will be 0 or 1 month. I hope that it is atleast 1 month. It will bring relief to a few of us and give hope to the rest.
But trying hard not to expect anything.
10102007
Yup buddy have been following the chatter around the net as well and most of them are expecting something similar ( 0 to 1 month ) movement based on their lawyer perceptions about USCIS wanting to hold the line and not do any retrogression.It will be very painful if the above does happen but have seen this movie play out many times before.
:) I tend to imagine USCIS as an conservative football coach whose team has the ball in the 4th quarter at 3 mins and instead of trying to march down the field will try to punt the ball and will play prevent defense .Then in the postgame conference the coach says " Well you know our defense did not stop them(meaning no proper estimation of nubmers between DOS and USCIS) and they deserve credit for scoring under 3 mins ( sudden surge of hidden demand) ".
Teddy had an nice post in the 2011 thread about this approach .If USCIS does end up doing this they will have to hold the line longer for consecutive months since they will end up seeing demand from various sides which means chances diminish for end of 2007 and early 2008 and they would have to file later in 2012 for 485.
I am trying hard not to expect anything as well. ( takes a deep breath and repeats aaya to aaya ...baaki sab maaya )
Quote:
Originally Posted by 10102007
Just trying to put things in perspective based on what we know so far.
As of end of last year there was enough current cases were left that USCIS didn't need to move dates if they were to not do qly spillover.
However they still moved dates in october significantly indicating a possible shift in their intake strategy in 2012.
one of the key reasons this happened is because they its almost certain that the SOFAD in 2012 will be much bigger than the existing backlog of EB2 cases. So if they do not move dates sufficiently forward with sufficient advance time, there is a risk that EB2 may not be current and yet EB3 may receive spillover. The chances of USCIS let that happen are next to zero.
As a result in 2012 we will see USCIS move dates quite early in the year to allow sufficient processing time so that in the spillover season (i.e May 2012 onwards) they can use SOFAD for these cases.
My own theory is that they MUST move dates at least upto Jan 2008 by Mar 2012 for EB2IC. We already saw some partial proof for this theory in terms of october movement. What will happen in November is anybody's guess.
October movement didn't create any new demand other than PWMBs. So the need for BTM still exists. A lot of people have hopes high. But what I would say with certainty is that the movement upto Jan 2008 will happen by end of Mar 2012. November movement could be as follows (just plain gut feel)
0 months - 33%
3 months or less - 90%
more than 3 months - 10%
gcseeker,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
DOS/USCIS may not be able to hold the current cut-off date for EB2-IC for long, unless they do quarterly spillover. Other wise they have to get ready for more calls/service requests/info-pass appointment... etc.
Since all new filings will not get into pipeline for at-least 3 months, it makes their life easy to extend EB2IC cutoff date in the next VB and retrogress in December VB.
Thanks for your insights! it's very good analysis.
I hope Mr.CO can be less conservative and move PD to Feb or March of 2008 by March 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I know you mean by March 2012.
'thalaivar' (leader/ head/ chief) Rajni takes it one step further. He says everything is maaya and 'chaya' (shadow). Nothing is real. Geez..it's scary.Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
I think we should start telling people that only the flight ticket is in their control. Everything else - visa, H1 stability, GC etc. - is bonus or maaya.
Veni
Thanks for sharing those positive thoughts.I hope USCIS decides to do it that way. Do you think it would make sense for them to do a big move like 5-6 months in the next VB and grab additional demand for guardbanding since they are anyhow gonna possibly do the retrogression in Dec VB.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,
If USCIS and/or DOL are eager for BTM why not move the dates in one shot give people a 30 day window and then retrogress?
Benefits of moving dates in one shot
1. Get demand data at the start of year.
2. Less complaints/confusion and more clear way forward for visa year 2012.
3. USCIS used to this way.
Drawbacks
Cannot think of anything.
Your thoughts please.
gcseeker,Quote:
Originally Posted by gcseeker
IMHO, unless they have quarterly spillover planned already, what ever DOS/USCIS have in mind for EB2IC for FY2012, should happen in the next two VB. If not they can not hold on to 15JUL2007 for EB2IC for long.
This reminds me of childhood memory.. we used to say while watching cricket "bol India harega" and then India would win :).!!Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Just wondering... if USCIS can take a legal baits on PDs .. it would be fun to see who's winning and making money ...?
codesmith,Quote:
Originally Posted by codesmith
No doubt, DOS/USCIS all the time.:)
you seemed to cross the total of 100%
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
veni thanks. Corrected.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001