Can USCIS give more than 7% visas to EB3-china as well or the rules specifically states that any spillover has to go to the most backlogged country completely ?Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
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Can USCIS give more than 7% visas to EB3-china as well or the rules specifically states that any spillover has to go to the most backlogged country completely ?Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Eb1 is backlog for China- so it will be divided I guess
For eb2- it should go to india
For eb3- we still have hidden demand from phillipines, SK
I learnt from trackitt- one user wagecuck seems to be knowledgeable on distribution rules
He or she said for eb3- other workers- 10,000 gc r issued each year regardless of spillover
So if eb3 skilled workers gc remain- that goes to india but if eb3 other workers gc remains that goes to china
150k going solely to India EB1,2,3 ?Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
Are you saying FB spillover is NOT equally applied to all countries ?
Because if FB spillover were to be equally applied then EB1 -India , EB2-India and EB3-India each will have is own quota of 5235 to use - this does not change things much for EB2/EB3 unless there is massive vertical spillover from EB1 or horizontal spillover from ROWs (which is anyone's guess at this point)
What am i missing ?
I am also trying to understand the mechanism of how the spill over gets allotted but this is what i understand ( and I will use only EB3 as an example)Quote:
Originally Posted by rohanvus
(261K* 7% )/ 3 gives around 6K visa per country cap in EB3 for FY2021
Also normally there are 40K visa in EB3 per year but this year there will be 75K visas available in EB3 category due to 35K extra visas due to FB spillover.
Backlogged countries are India, China Mexico ,Philippines and Vietnam - so each will be capped to 6K in EB3 category, totally 30K visas in the first pass.
Remaining 75K-30K = 45K visa are available for EB3 - ROW. It is safe to assume that EB3-ROW will not use up all of the 45K, say they use up 20K visa numbers, that leaves additional 25K EB3 visas to be utilized.
Again I believe that it is safe to assume that there would be still more applicants from EB3-China waiting and maybe EB3-philippines as well.
Based on what I have heard from experts, the 25K extra visa numbers still available are expected to be allotted to the MOST backlogged country, which will be India in this case. so India would end up getting 30K EB3 category visas this year.
Even if there is a hidden demand, each country has a limit of 7% every year , so I would expect them not be current soon but have some date associated ( FAD) . And once they have a FAD associated - the most backlogged country India would get the extra visas available.Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
Hence my question can USCIS siphon the extra visa numbers away from India applicants to other countries even though they are not the most backlogged.
Thank you. Hope they don’t waste visas. We did our medicals hoping our dates would be current in the next 2 yrs.
https://ambals.blogspot.com/ claims 90K for EB2 and 40K for EB3.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Yes sounds right at the optimistic end; mine was more realistic/ pessimistic prediction ( 20K visas in EB3-ROW within the US with consulates closed). Considering fall up and fall down spillover EB2 might get more visas .. depending on how many unused visas trickle down to EB2 from EB4, EB5 And EB1, EB2 very well get further more visas than the 30-40K from FB spillover.Quote:
Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk
Fingers crossed - USCIS is able to process all these this year else they will move back to FB next year and any unused FB visas this year will get added to EB next year ( which might be significant as well if COVID keeps playing havoc in consular processing)
I guess you have not read the below statement:Quote:
Originally Posted by JoinedToAsk
we know that, EB1, EB4 and EB5 have backlog more than the available numbers for FY2021. If the processing happens properly, all of the visas available for these categories will be used up. That means, no spill over for EB2.
So expect the 5200 (7% overall) + 25 K (horizontal and vertical spillover) = 30K for EB2I to be a good realistic number and it will be more clear where we stand by Jan.
I would NOT expect vertical spillover to EB2 at this time as there are enough backlogged cases for EB4, EB5 and EB1. EB-ROW numbers are the ones to keep in mind. Folks who are old enough to remember the 2008 financial crisis, there were no spillovers from FB to EB but EB2-I still did get some substantial (Vertical + Horizontal spillover) numbers because of decline in ROW usage. I do not believe the ROW usage would be business as usual keeping up with the numbers from 2019 in FY 2021 even with the consulates opening up. So there is more of a chance of Horizontal spillover especially for EB2-I (expecting 5-10k). Visa number wastage is the real issue though. However, I recently learned that even if 485 is not completely adjudicated, if it's far along enough in it's processing, USCIS usually does apply a visa number to the pending case to avoid wastage. I cannot speak of the intent, but there is definitely a way for USCIS to use up all the numbers. Will it do so would depend on the intent of the admin.
The September 2020 CP figures have been published at https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...sa%20Class.pdf
I've posted the final analysis for the FY here.
Anyone with Eb2I priority date in 2010 received RFE for medical recently? My priority date is March 2nd 2010 and received Medical and maintenance of status since my last entry on H1 RFE in 2018 and no updates since then. My medicals are already expired as i got them done September 2018.
My EAD/AP renewal just approved last week end and this did not trigger any RFE either for medical on I-485. I never sent Supplement J as it wasn't asked in the RFE in 2018, do i need to send Supplement J if i never changed my Job after applying I-485? Will sending Supplement J voluntarily trigger a medical RFE on I-485?
So I guess it's safe to sayQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
272,788 gc might be this EB 2021 limit?
Bigger question is, how many will USCIS actually process and how many will it waste? We know empirically that they struggle to process 140,000 a year and in any given year, there is some wastage. Add to this construct, required visa interviews, additional RFEs, intentions and add in a pandemic situation where capacity, efficiency are not exactly optimal and not to mention dwindling operating budgets and you can imagine where we might get with this. Just as the number of spill over green cards added are historic, there is perhaps going to be visa wastage at historic proportions as well. Everyone is looking at their dates and how much the bulletins move forward, just also remember nothing has changed with regards to processing capabilities. Instead of X applications, USCIS will now need to process perhaps 1.8X applications. No additional personnel, no additional supporting vendor orgs to help process this additional workload and in fact, USCIS is sunsetting existing vendor support partners to reduce costs. Add to that, a nation wide injunction issued by the courts that stops USCIS from raising costs. I dont want to sound like an apologist for USCIS, just want everyone to be cognizant of that and have realistic expectations.Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
on top of all this, they need to process the self sufficiency I-944 form as well :(......Quote:
Originally Posted by android09
Now if they do the right thing by hiring more personnel on account of getting all the money from moving the filing dates ahead, they will be able to ramp up the approvals. That combined with waiving interviews will help. At this time, a lot hinges on the elections and the decisions made immediately after that until January no matter who wins.Quote:
Originally Posted by android09
No, because that's only the CP numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
To calculate the limit, you would need to know the AOS approvals as well.
Best to stick with CO's initial estimate for now.
I am not sure but from the previous responses, I guess in previous years it was Philippines or South Korea that got more than 2800 (7% in EB3) because they did not use or reach the 7% in other categories like EB1, EB2 or FB. Not sure exactly they underutilized and overallocated beyond 2800 even through EB2/3 I and C and backlogged.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Don't assume that USCIS can only apply a visa number once your case is approved. The USCIS can potentially apply a visa number to your case towards the end of FY 2021 and it will get approved when it does at a later time (FY 2022). Average AOS process time looks like between 12 - 24 months. So if they just waited to apply the numbers once cases got approved, they would be wasting numbers left right and center every year by just accepting filing dates for the next FY.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
Hello gurus, Long time visitor of this forum, and would like to ask a question. I'm trying to understand the demand and supply equation here for EB2I/EB3I for this FY, and how the demand will individually play out for each category. For those who already upgraded their I140 from EB3 to EB2, and never filed 485, can those applicants choose to instead file under EB3? If yes - the FAD between these two categories won't be of a big difference, wouldn't it?
Greg Siskind's tweet about November bulletin - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1318980930422427648
"Someone I trust has mentioned on a listserv that Charlie Oppenheim, the DOS official who writes the Visa Bulletin, told him that the November one won't be out, in all likelihood, before next Monday. So you can stop asking me when it's coming out." It looks like they want to wait as long as possible to see how many applications are filed before they release the bulletin. Maybe the fling dates won't be current next month if they are monitoring it so closely.
Great. This means people will not know whether the filing dates will be honored in November 2020 or not. USCIS usually takes a week after the VB to update its website. So anyone who is thinking of sending applications based on "DF", hurry-up and send the applications on or before 29OCT2020.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
They’re processing the same number of applications, though. Just less family more employment, not sure why any of this should make a difference, it’s not like FB VOs are different from EB VOs...Quote:
Originally Posted by android09
I don't see any logic behind retrogressing the dates so early. Only reason I could think of is the fee hike stay.Quote:
Originally Posted by vsivarama
What does next Monday mean - is its 26th Oct or 2nd November ?Quote:
Originally Posted by YTeleven
Next Monday means the Monday that is coming next, which will be five days from today.Quote:
Originally Posted by rohanvus
I think USCIS will continue to honor the DF charts in the Oct bulletin through Q1 21 fiscal. But that's not to say that you have to file to Idli's point above! Its always prudent to get it done as fast as you can!Quote:
Originally Posted by idliman
I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).
ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.
If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.
ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.
If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.
As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.
The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.
Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.
You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.
Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.
Thank you Spec. This explains a lot. I did not know 7% is for overall visas and not calculated per country per category. This would mean that Philippines South Korea high demand in EB3 may use up available visas if they don’t have any other visa allocation in other categoriesQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you for clarifying this.
yeah...of late it looks like per country cap is being applied across the EB + FB. But as i recollect, a few years ago, the per country cap used to be applied separately to the EB and FB.Quote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
Yes. Considering this, the horizontal spillover to EB3-I will be considerably less, also EB3-philipines and EB3-Vietnam might be current for the whole year allowing as many as 34K- other demands). And even when USCIS knows this, they moved the dates for EB3-I to Jan 15 2015. It really just baffles me, but its a step forward for all who can now apply for EAD/AP, even if FAD don't reach that date.Quote:
Originally Posted by rabp77
No, I have not heard anything like this before. Please see my other response on this. I have been told by 2 lawyers to the contrary. Cheers.Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
Based on this explanationQuote:
Originally Posted by inspired_p
How much horizontal spillover can we expect in eb3 and till what dates would be moved beginning of 2011?
Considering that EB3 Philippines and Vietnam were current in Oct 2019 and not current in Sept 2020, they used up more than their 7% overall quota of 34K last year , we should not be surprised if they use that up this year as well albeit more in EB3 category and less in FB category.Quote:
Originally Posted by longwaitgigu
I really do not know how to make sense of these numbers obviously. Hope we get better answers from the gurus.
One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?
“We wanted to make you aware of some issues arising from EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades in today’s immigration environment.
Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.
This is contrary to law and past practice in these types of situation. The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) is currently challenging this USCIS procedural issue and we will keep you posted on the outcome.
Having said that, we want to make sure everyone makes an informed decision based on the above, so please note the following:
If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as a ‘new’ case, there is a decent possibility USCIS will return it, along with the accompanying I-485 application(s). If this happens, the employee will still retain the EB-2 I-140 approval and will have to wait until they are eligible to file their AOS under EB-2 and/or when clear guidance is issued by USCIS for EB-3 downgrades. If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as an ‘amended’ case, the USCIS will likely accept it and the accompanying I-485 application(s). As previously discussed, if the USCIS denies the amended I-140 petition, the I-485 applications, will, in turn, be denied. The employee will, however, still retain the I-140 EB-2 approval. If the USCIS approves the EB-3 I-140 as an amendment, the employee will lose the EB-2 approval and will be in EB-3 for the rest of the green card application process.”
For someone who started posting just last year, that's a pretty good run rate of posts :) I appreciate your thoughts!Quote:
Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly
You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control :)
Any predictions for eb3 india by gurus after spectator post
You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.
I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.
There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.
Quote:
Originally Posted by chhablsa
And welcome! You said quite aptly that while none of us have any ability to accelerate GC for anybody else, we can certainly soothe nerves by sharing information and experiences in a cooperating and respectful manner.Quote:
Originally Posted by chhablsa