Demand data is finally out
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Demand data is finally out
UpdatedQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Expect date to be in 2006. 1450 case prior to 2007, ROW close to 5K. Long wait is ahead...not a good way to start new yr..
Quick calculation on how many EB2 ROW will be ready for approval starting October 1st.
EB2ROW added 2075 from Aug8 to Sept 10 at this rate there will be easily an additional 1500 added from Sept10-Sept30(3 weeks), which would bring total EB2ROW backlog ready to approve on Oct1st to a minimum 6350.
So EB2 starts FY2013 with 40040-6350--->33690
EB2 After ROW Backlog Usage----->33690(40040-6350)
EB2IC Regular Quota------------------->5606(EB2I--2800 will be consumed mostly cases prior to 2006/2007)
EB2 remaining--------------------------->28084(33690-5606)
If EB2ROW crosses 28084(in addition to 6350) limit then they will consume any SO from EB1/4/5. So for EB2I to get any SO EB2ROW usage should stay below 28084 in FY2013, which is below 3000 per month starting from November 2012.
Sports that’s a great observation about the ROW for 2006 that certainly says it all. I believe the cumulative prior to 2007 has increased by ~ 600 which is porting happening primarily for those cases from EB3-I where 485 was filed back in 2007 itself, these cases are ready to approve. The could not be approved because EB2 -I was unavailable. Good luck to all.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
No surprises in demand data. Eventually, ROW backlog due to retro may be less than 8k, IMO. Wouldn't worry much about where dates open at start. The trend for catagories other than EB2I is what we should be watching for in first 2 quarters.
So after october vb release, employment based visa can be renamed as "Diversity based visa- extended" as lower skilled workers will be preferred from rest of world than higher skilled workers from India and in some extent China. (eb3row pd>eb2 india)
I think EB2ROW might get a COD in this VB mainly because of 2 reasons 1)CO may not allocate more than 2500-3000 visas in October. 2)Control applications flow(according to news last week)
I am not disagreeing with what you stated. My point is we may not draw conclusions for whole year based on where it opens at start of next FY. And as far as movement of EB2I goes, it's anyone's guess. I don't see any value wasting time on predicting what agencies will do.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. (Does not account for porting, that could change the numbers below especially for 2007).
EB2-I
2007 - 85% (DD-4150, Inv-4904)
2008 - 96% (DD-14500, Inv-15136)
2009 - 81% (DD-10900, Inv-13429)
2010 - 63% (DD-3100, Inv-4912)
EB2-C
2007 - 81% (DD-850, Inv-1046)
2008 - 95% (DD-3150, Inv-3311)
2009 - 79% (DD-2300, Inv-2913)
2010 - 59% (DD-575, Inv-975)
So that's essentially 12-15k SOFAD. That's what my gut feel too. ( my gut feel figure is slightly more in fact 15-17k).Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
sportsfan, very astute observation. You surely if not already are, would be a great manager/director/exec :)
My personal opinion is if you are getting 20% more salary, and that you have a PD of 10/2008, you should use EAD and excercise AC21.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5770.htmlQuote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
EB2I-SEP04
EB2ROW--Jan12
EB2C--15JUL07
EOOWOW! That stinks!
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5770.html
October 2012 bulletin is out
Eb2 I 01 Sept 2004
Looks to me a random pick by CO!
A WTF moment.
Who is there with PD 2004 in Eb2? Porting??
2004? Seriously? Looks like porting is taking its toll on EB2. The worst part is these guys don't even have any special comments down towards the end in the visa bulletin explaining why they decided to take the dates to 2004 for EB2I.
Life goes on... time to move to greener pastures.
Here is quick observation on demand data. Between 2008-2009 the demand seems to be 1500 / month for EB2I. Including china 1800-1900. AT its highest peak the demand was 2800-3000 few years back. Even if you assume 2400 as secular demand. That's 33% demand destruction due to recession. There is no reason why EB2ROW would be immune from recession. And mind you that includes all kinds of portings.
So assuming the same - it should mean - the total SOFAD we have seen between 2006-2011 (i.e. for prerecession demand) - we should expect to see at least same or slightly more 2012 onwards.
I can't say for certain what will happen in 6 months. But to think that EB2I is going to be stuck in 2006 or 2007 is too pessimistic. I am quite hopeful that actually 2008 will be cleared by Sep 2013. I can bet a dollar on that.
p.s. - What a truly WT_ moment. The date movement is completely at odds with the demand data published. There is hardly any demand before 1 Jan 2007. Why not 1 Jan 2007? why 2004? Then why does DOS bother to publish demand data at all?
Guys chill out ... go home. Don't think about it. This is nonsense.
This is going to be open season for Porting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
The advantage of U (unavailable) is that it blocks the folks who already have EB3 485 filed due to July 2007 situation, from bleeding away the slow trickle, as well as at times, bursts of SO.
Otherwise such a congestion management ploy by DOS, is only going to have the Porting take away numbers, and the situation may always look grim to CO.
I really feel for my friends, two of them in same community, they live right here, they applied in November, a month before me, and still stuck with Sep 2007 PD in EB2.
On the other hand, the porting folks, they too have waited for eternity. It's all in all a very unfortunate situation.
well not sure this is a spiral journey or a circular journey towards the central point which is attaining GC. I somehow convince myself every time that it is former, but CO will pull up some unknown and shows me that it is later.....
Friends the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing. Couple of things.
- Porting is happening quite heavily even for 2003 folks for India.
- The more significant bad news is that EB2 ROW is not current and from the current date it looks like it might take a minimum of a quarter to get current.
- EB2 ROW and EB1 hold the real key to the fortunes this year. EB1 usage will be higher primarily because the effect of the Kazarian Memo is waning and EB1-C is rising. For EB2 ROW the backlog is the concern.
- EB3-I is in a very dense zone and will move only 1 week per VB, this will cause porting to accelerate.
Is CO setting COD to 2004 an effort to prevent porting? Is it now possible for EB3 (with a PD later than Sep 2004) to port now?
Kudos to Teddy for predicting that DOS would only allocate the 252 monthly allocation. Using the DOS Demand data and prorating the pre 2007 number of 1,350 by the split between years in the USCIS May Inventory gives a 2004 date for EB2-I.
Similarly, it gives a July 2007 date for China.
ignorance is bliss. I wish i could go back to being clueless about the immigration process and just being worried about exceling at my day job.
I want to point out EB2-WW only moved to Jan 1, 2012. I mentioned earlier why, there are not enough visas in the 1st month to justify a "C".
Dear friends,
I just looked at pending inventory data and Teddy's prediction about DOS allocating only 252 visas each month. If you add up all the pending inventory numbers upto September 2004, it comes to approximately 300 pending cases. Could it be just the case of CO managing the dates to follow a quota of 252/month?
The other observation that i have is that if you compare number of cases between May inventory and Demand data, difference is only about 150. I am assuming that this is mainly because of porting. If that is true, it is only 150 cases in last 4 months which is not that high? Am i interpreting these numbers correctly. There is also a bit of wishful thinking as my PD is Sept'07 EB2-I :-)
pending cases Cumulative Demand Data
1997 2 2
1998 4 6
1999 0 6
2000 5 11
2001 17 28
2002 35 63
2003 121 184
2004 242 426
2005 218 644
2006 552 1196 1350
2007 4904 6100 5500
2008 15136 21236 20000
2009 13429 34665 30900
2010 4912 39577 34000
Spec - While it is possible that CO can explain is that way, but then EB1 and EB2ROW as entire categories could easily be retrogressed years and years back. Just look at the pending demand for those categories. Besides this has never been done month to month in the past. So it just goes to show the arrogance and insensitiveness that CO has demonstrated here. I am really surprised.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I agree the date seems random. Q, I would point out that the monthly allocation for EB1 and EB2-WW is much higher than that of any single country. However, I agree that EB2-M and EB2-P probably have a higher demand than 250 a month and it's hard to explain how they have the same cutoff date as WW.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The dates show CO will be super-cautious this year. Burned once (2007) and twice (2012). Don't think he would like to be brunt thrice.
USCIS seems to be adding 6K India, 1 K China and 2K Other cases per month.
Damnnn that suxxxxx!!
This is an extremely conservative move on the part of CO.. But at least, this guarantees that there will be movement on a fairly regular basis in this FY..With a COD of 2004, even if EB2-I is restricted to regular quota movement, it would still bring forward movement every month.. The porting allocation will be front loaded.. and there should be allocation for "original EB2" applicants in Q2/Q3 at least..
As disheartening as this is.. at least, we will be able to forecast porting trends early in the year..Looking for a silver lining on a storm cloud...
I had thought that I would not worry about the bulletin until at least February, had the dates moved to August 2007.. Not anymore..
Q,Quote:
Spec - While it is possible that CO can explain is that way, but then EB1 and EB2ROW as entire categories could easily be retrogressed years and years back. Just look at the pending demand for those categories. Besides this has never been done month to month in the past. So it just goes to show the arrogance and insensitiveness that CO has demonstrated here. I am really surprised.
Pending Demand in the Inventory is not the same as documentarily qualified cases that would appear in the Demand Data. The USCIS figure just says they have an approved I-140 and the case is in process.
The monthly increase in EB2-WW cases in the Demand Data since becoming retrogressed is not outside the normal monthly allocation (3.1k / month). The total accumulated is, hence a Jan 2012 Cut Off Date.
With exception of this year, it is exactly what CO has usually done and what he always does with EB3 for all Countries.
Spec - that is quite untrue. Just check out the EB2ROW and EB1 inventory as much as is available on USCIS website, almost always the entire category had more backlog than monthly category quota and yet the category was NEVER retrogressed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I suggest you re-read my post.
I explained why the total USCIS Inventory does not equal monthly demand.
Currently actual monthly demand for EB2-WW appears to be c.2k / month in the Demand Data.
Aug - 775 (about one week) - Data as of July 9, 2012
Sep - 2,775 - +2,000 - Data as of August 8, 2012
Oct - 4,850 - +2,075 - Data as of September 6, 2012
Another 3 weeks should add c. 1,500 at the current rate for a total of c.6.5k.
Since EB5-China start with zero allocation, there is probably some extra numbers available as well to satisfy the demand over 2 months.
FY2009
COD moved from 01APR03 to 01JUL03 in October through January.
FY2010
COD stayed at 22JAN05 from October through February, then 01FEB05 March through June.
FY2011
COD stayed at 08MAY06 from October through April.
Spec - all of us are aware of that fact. If you look at EB2ROW inventory - are you saying that out of 5-10K outstanding cases they never had more than 2.5K demand (equivalent to their monthly quota right)?Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Sorry guys to hog this thread - but please vote for your charity. We try to keep this site not-for-profit by donating the ad revenues from this site.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ations-We-Made
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
They may have exceeded the monthly allocation of 3.1k in the first 9 months slightly in some months, but clearly the overall EB2-WW final visa numbers say they did not on average exceed the number available to them.
The USCIS Inventory represents all eligible cases in progress at any one time. Since an I-485 might take 4-6 months to process, it represents far more than the numbers that might be approved in any one month.
For Categories or Countries that are usually Current, the USCIS Inventory and Demand data are chalk and cheese.
Look at the numbers in the Inventory. They don't bear any resemblance to the true numbers for EB2-WW. You wouldn't think there were more than 500-600 EB2-WW cases a month if you believed it. Similarly, you would have to believe there were only about 1,400 EB1 cases per month.
In general, EB2-WW has started the FY slowly and built up over the course of the year.
As for EB2-I movements in previous FY, see my addition to my previous post.
Enough I think. If we hold different views on the subject - so be it.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I am kind of skeptical if that is going to happen before Q3, considering the fact that ROW-M-P got 13K demand from May 03,2012 inventory and 6K PERM certifications in Q3.
Have not noticed till now but EB5 and EB4(Certain Religious Workers) is U for October, i think because of bill pending in House.
From VB:
"The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as “Unavailable” for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2013, those cut-off dates would immediately become “Current” for October."