EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

If you look at the Oct 2010 inventory there were hardly 3300 EB3I 485 applications for EB3I upto Jun 2002. Between porting and denials 500 can easily be covered and so 2800 is teh usual quota which should bring dates to jun 2002.

Just like you I am skeptical too. I just don;t believe India has so little FB demand that India starts consuming EB visas in EB3.

p.s. - I do think its terribly unfair that the unused FB visas for a country don't come from FB but rather EB. That just goes to show once again the lattitude/discretion DoS/USCIS exercise time and again. This is also a good area to do advocacy.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

neospeed,

Whilst not impossible, it seems a little implausible.

The only Country we know this happens for is South Korea, who use less than 2k FB visas a year.

India in contrast is in the top 6 of FB users of visas and hit the 7% limit last year.

In addition, since there is no actual transfer of visa numbers from FB to EB, EB3-I could only receive more than 2.8k visas at the expense of those given to EB3-ROW.

It somehow just doesn't add up, but the one month forward movement in the August VB for EB3-I was certainly real.

I admit to being slightly confused at the moment.

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USCIS Releases EB-1 Statistics for FY2010 and FY2011 (.pdf 19 KB) USCIS statistics for FY2010 and FY2011, showing EB-1 receipts, approvals, denials, and RFE issuance by service center. FY2011 data is presented through July 19, 2011. AILA Doc. No. 11072860.

http://www.aila.org/RecentPosting/Re...stingList.aspx

The above doc is posted in aila site. which might be useful for our projections. Not sure if any one on this forum got access to that doc

neospeed,

Good spot!

Hopefully someone like the Oh Law Firm or Ron Gotcher will publish the data.

I read some where that there is a word out there they want to clear all pending EB1 cases before moving into new year so we may see less approval till July but in Aug/Sep they may focus more on EB1 and less spillover to India. I think it make sense for them to clear EB1 as much as possible in these two months if they have pending EB1 cases more than 10k. Because DOS can release up to 10k in first qtr of 2012 for EB1 and if they see pending demand + projected for 1st qtr demand > 10k then there is a possibility of setting cutoff date which can lead a lawsuit etc.. So DOS might try to clean all pending EB1 before going into q1. which means less spill over to EB2 IC. And we can't do anything since this spill over is not our right it just a benefit.

My PD is May 02 2007. Is there a chance I would be current in next bulletin?:)

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Originally Posted by neospeed

USCIS Releases EB-1 Statistics for FY2010 and FY2011 (.pdf 19 KB) USCIS statistics for FY2010 and FY2011, showing EB-1 receipts, approvals, denials, and RFE issuance by service center. FY2011 data is presented through July 19, 2011. AILA Doc. No. 11072860.

http://www.aila.org/RecentPosting/Re...stingList.aspx

The above doc is posted in aila site. which might be useful for our projections. Not sure if any one on this forum got access to that doc

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neospeed,
Let's hope USCIS make it available on their site, It would be helpful if we can get the approval/denial ratio.

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Originally Posted by rahil1

My PD is May 02 2007. Is there a chance I would be current in next bulletin?:)

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rahil1,
03May07 is also eagerly waiting, hope we will have the demand data/bulletin in two more weeks! :)

This maybe true also. I still think one month's movement should at least occur. And then as hypothesized by me earlier, very gradual movement until SO season, maybe one possibility positively thinking.

I will put a post on ron gotcher's forum requesting the aila eb1 info once I reach office. Btw I work 10 minutes walking distance from Ron Gotcher's office! My eye doctor is in same building as him :D

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

I read some where that there is a word out there they want to clear all pending EB1 cases before moving into new year so we may see less approval till July but in Aug/Sep they may focus more on EB1 and less spillover to India. I think it make sense for them to clear EB1 as much as possible in these two months if they have pending EB1 cases more than 10k. Because DOS can release up to 10k in first qtr of 2012 for EB1 and if they see pending demand + projected for 1st qtr demand > 10k then there is a possibility of setting cutoff date which can lead a lawsuit etc.. So DOS might try to clean all pending EB1 before going into q1. which means less spill over to EB2 IC. And we can't do anything since this spill over is not our right it just a benefit.

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See if this helps for the calculations

http://blog.lucidtext.com/category/eb-5-statistics/

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Originally Posted by pravara

-->Not to mention that 1 in 5 of my friends who are in GC process never heard of trackit and wouldn't care either :)

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Originally Posted by Monica12

I tend to agree.. even though I had visited trackitt a couple of times in the past few years, I never bothered to add my case there until recently.

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Your thoughts are pretty much in line with reality. When predictions had started the ratio of EB2 India on Trackitt to the backlog was calculated, Q had the highest at that time as 26, and many other came up with lower values down to 10. In reality we have now gone away from this model but Trackitt is still very good in estimating ROW usage.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

If you look at the Oct 2010 inventory there were hardly 3300 EB3I 485 applications for EB3I upto Jun 2002. Between porting and denials 500 can easily be covered and so 2800 is teh usual quota which should bring dates to jun 2002.

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That’s a great explanation, in addition since these cases are older there is higher likelihood of EVL and medical RFE's as some of these folks filed their 485's even before the Jul fiasco.

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

I read some where that there is a word out there they want to clear all pending EB1 cases before moving into new year so we may see less approval till July but in Aug/Sep they may focus more on EB1 and less spillover to India. I think it make sense for them to clear EB1 as much as possible in these two months if they have pending EB1 cases more than 10k. Because DOS can release up to 10k in first qtr of 2012 for EB1 and if they see pending demand + projected for 1st qtr demand > 10k then there is a possibility of setting cutoff date which can lead a lawsuit etc.. So DOS might try to clean all pending EB1 before going into q1. which means less spill over to EB2 IC. And we can't do anything since this spill over is not our right it just a benefit.

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Very nicely said - "spill over is not our right it just a benefit".

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Originally Posted by rahil1

My PD is May 02 2007. Is there a chance I would be current in next bulletin?:)

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Refer to Spec's post in Facts and Data. - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...r-Cut-Off-Date

Based on this your case is virtually sure shot as even by the most conservative estimate the dates should cross your PD.

thanks teddy:D

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Your thoughts are pretty much in line with reality. When predictions had started the ratio of EB2 India on Trackitt to the backlog was calculated, Q had the highest at that time as 26, and many other came up with lower values down to 10. In reality we have now gone away from this model but Trackitt is still very good in estimating ROW usage.

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Teddy you are right. Trackitt is pretty good ....but one need to be mindful of these things that keep moving. Those interested in using trackitt data to do some analysis on their own .. the best way to use it is always in relative terms rather than absolute.

e.g. look at EB1 this year and compare to last year's EB1 and see what the drop/increase is. Then use that multiple on prior years actual usage.

This trick is useful on almost all categories except EB4 EB5 and EB2ROW-NIW. Of course the more you try to slice and dice the data by country or any other filter.... the data starts becoming less useful. That is the reason why one needs to keep it generally at a high level.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy you are right. Trackitt is pretty good ....but one need to be mindful of these things that keep moving. Those interested in using trackitt data to do some analysis on their own .. the best way to use it is always in relative terms rather than absolute.

e.g. look at EB1 this year and compare to last year's EB1 and see what the drop/increase is. Then use that multiple on prior years actual usage.

This trick is useful on almost all categories except EB4 EB5 and EB2ROW-NIW. Of course the more you try to slice and dice the data by country or any other filter.... the data starts becoming less useful. That is the reason why one needs to keep it generally at a high level.

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Q as you said the key is the best way to use it is always in relative terms rather than absolute this has been used in mine and your approaches here, I give you all credit for pioneering this approach being the first one to do so. Somehow EB1 cases have virtually dried of Trackitt that’s a bit puzzling; SOFAD though is completely at the mercy of EB1 usage though :).

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Originally Posted by rahil1

thanks teddy:D

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rahil bhai apko sahil toh milhi jayega...not to worry aap ka aur 03May bhai ka bhi date current hona hi hien...

Yes soggadu. If my date is by end of May 2007 I will be highly anticipating to be current. Very good chance for people upto June end actually. After that it becomes dicey and at the whim of DoS / USCIS.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

rahil bhai apko sahil toh milhi jayega...not to worry aap ka aur 03May bhai ka bhi date current hona hi hien...

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Q, as we begin the countdown towards D-day....any news from your source regarding VB release date or movement ? Please keep us posted :)

Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Hi all,

I'm a newbie and just wanted to introduce myself. I've been checking this forum for a couple of months. Recently, I have been following all the posts. While the in depth analysis goes over my head, I am understanding the bottom lines enough not to ask 'When will my PD become current? :-D Just kidding. Like most people on this forum, the green card wait and associated uncertainty is an issue that weighs on my mind, at times heavily. My PD is Aug 2007.

So having said all that, I actually have a specific question. What type of RFE is 'EVL'?

Thanks,
essenel

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Originally Posted by essenel

Hi all,

I'm a newbie and just wanted to introduce myself. I've been checking this forum for a couple of months. Recently, I have been following all the posts. While the in depth analysis goes over my head, I am understanding the bottom lines enough not to ask 'When will my PD become current? :-D Just kidding. Like most people on this forum, the green card wait and associated uncertainty is an issue that weighs on my mind, at times heavily. My PD is Aug 2007.

So having said all that, I actually have a specific question. What type of RFE is 'EVL'?

Thanks,
essenel

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Welcome to the forum. EVL stands for " employment verification letter"

When are we expecting the Sep bulletin? Will it be around 5th of Aug or will it be the following week (11th - 12 Aug)?

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Originally Posted by pch053

When are we expecting the Sep bulletin? Will it be around 5th of Aug or will it be the following week (11th - 12 Aug)?

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I believe the following week (11th - 12 Aug) looks more likely, it will give USCIS / DOS more time to see how things are actually moving in Aug since this is the final bulletin of the year.

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Originally Posted by pch053

When are we expecting the Sep bulletin? Will it be around 5th of Aug or will it be the following week (11th - 12 Aug)?

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March 2011 VB came out on the 5th... but the last few have come out around the 10th. My guess would be the 10th-12th August this time too....but I'm hoping it comes out on the 5th.

Thanks Satya. Useful information.

There are 3 pieces of information that caught my attention over first 2 Quarters:
1. 485-EB receipts and approvals (36K receipts vs 46K approvals)
2. 140-worker receipts and approvals (42K receipts vs 31K approvals)
3. 485-FB receipts and approvals (150K vs 131K)

Roughly the most conclusive is third piece which tells us there probably won't be any SPILLOVER from FB to EB next year.
The other two pieces are interesting. #1 is basically all EB1 and EB2ROW numbers. So even if you double them - that's 92K. Add 8K buffer for extra approvals. It still gives 40K SOFAD!!!! That's not counting 8K from EB5 and 5.6K EB2IC allocation.
#2 tells you why there is slowdown in consumption. The approvals are far short of receipts. And then not all 140 are eligible to file 485 (almost 13K I should say which are EB-IC and some EB3-ROW).

So is 40+8+5.6K SOFAD real? Does this mean there could be a massive movement? I think following test will tell you.

Look at trackitt consumption of EB1+EB2ROW for Oct-Mar & then compare that with Apr-Today. Of course prorate the Apr-Today to make it semi-annual. I will do it myself when have some time. But till then if some of you have time do it and lets see what we get.

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Originally Posted by satya1

Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

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Q - the total EB allocation is 140,000 (including EB4 and 5). So why do you add the spillover from EB4 and 5 seperately?