Latest update from Murthy's web site. It appears to be 2006 for EB2-I for October 2012 and coming months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Printable View
Latest update from Murthy's web site. It appears to be 2006 for EB2-I for October 2012 and coming months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks, Spec. I didn't realize the EB1-I and EB1C-I numbers were so inconsequential. I'd be willing to (partially) retract my criticism once I see 2012 numbers - because unless I'm mistaken, the H1 and L1 rejection problems started after 2011, which is what might cause a rise in EB1C-I. I will only partially retract it since there are still enough cases of fraud in EB1C from Indian IT companies (and there would probably be more if their profitability and margins weren't dependent on indentured slave labor - there was a good Mint article a while back which showed the difference to an Indian IT company's margin due to hiring an overseas worker instead of a local). Though to be fair, there is probably fraud in EB1C from non-Indian companies too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
If the situation is so bad(or as usual like previous years) then why the heck the PD dates were advanced? It appears now that only due to HR-3012 specculation and no thing else.
It reminds me of an old riddle- a frog takes one step forward every morning and 2 steps backwards at night. After few days where it would reach??
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
When there was rapid advancement of the dates, those visa bulletins clearly stated that the movement is due to lack of demand at that point of time. I do believe that DoS did it without foresight, but then it is to be expected of the govt. agency. I am certain they will not learn the lesson even now. Now that they have petitions till 2010, when the cutoff reaches 2010, they will notice the empty can and redo the whole exercise and so on and so forth...Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
abcx13,Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Maybe (I am not going to disagree), but there is "playing the system", fraud, whatever you want to call it in all Categories.
Someone outside EB2 might say there is Education and Experience Requirement inflation in the PERM system for EB2 positions, for example. I think everyone can think of something if they want to.
If there were unlimited resources, the amount could be reduced. The reality is that is not the case.
bvsamrat,Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
For the sole purpose of generating an Inventory that would last several years.
Had the July 2007 backlog not been cleared, you would not have seen the big advances.
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
I've already said many times and long ago that there was a complete disconnect between what CO was saying in those earlier VBs and what we were seeing for applicant demand. Eventually, it became obvious that dates would have to be made Unavailable and that EB2-WW were also at risk.
It seems from the article that CO was banking on 13k from EB1. In post #8035, I made it clear what I think about that premise.
USCIS didn't seem capable of providing information that was remotely up to date. Judging by most information from USCIS, it was anything up to 2 months out of date. It certainly doesn't seem to have been coming from the Lockboxes. If it was, they must still be using the Pony Express.
I think CO is experienced enough, particularly with USCIS, to have known exactly what was going on.
It suited CO to believe USCIS, because it meant he could achieve his aim of collecting a very big Inventory for future years. He could then make USCIS the scapegoats for the disaster, which he effectively has.
CO should be ashamed for not retrogressing EB2-IC a couple of months earlier. Most of the worst aspects could have been avoided and he would still have had an Inventory that would last several years.
Even if demand had turned out slightly lower than expected, he would still have had plenty of time in the remainder of the FY to move the EB2-IC dates forward as required to use up the available visas. People with later PDs would still have had their I-485 filed, but late PD approvals would not have been possible. EB2-WW would not have been retrogressed and FY2012 & FY2013 would not be looking like disaster zones.
One of the differences now is that CO can look in the DOS system and actually see the number of pre-adjudicated cases. That's where he wants to be - completely divorced from any input or reliance on USCIS.
Sorry if I sound angry - it's because I am! The Cut Off Date movement was great and has allowed 10s of thousands to file I-485 who otherwise could not have done so. It would have taken so little to have come out smelling of roses - instead the people affected have been treated with a total lack of respect.
Rant over. Sorry you received both barrels. It feels better. :)
Spec, Thanks. I wish and long for this to happen if someone could direct Mr.Co to read your posts.
I had an immense anger when CO's predictions and assumptions turned out to be wrong and still continue to hate these speculations over upcoming bulletins.
Hi Spec/Qesehmk,
First of all - thanks for the diligence on analysis and predictions you guys make. Really appreciate that.
I know no one can predict, but what is your idea on when July 2007(EB2-I) would be current? Your guess on most likely case?
Would there be a lot of EB3 to EB2 India porters before PD July 2007 going forward? Or is it reasonable to assume most of them would have already ported?
gc_soon - under normal circumstances you should get your GC in first 3 months i.e. by Dec 2012. The only way you can't get it is if A) There is something wrong with you application. B) There is more than 3K porting going on in EB2I.
B is actually quite possible. So DEc 2012 should be your best case and Jun 2013 should be the worst case (assuming no quarterly spillover).
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
Thanks a lot Q for the response.
My case is actually CP(my wife's follow to join). I already have my GC and waiting for my wife's date(July 2007 - same as my date) to be current).
Regd porting, you say there would be a 3K porting in EB2I, but isn't most porting going to happen with PDs after July 2007 (since the porters with PD before 2007, would have ported last year itself when July 2007 was current?). I'm not sure, just asking.
I just read Murthy's newsflash which saddens me:
http://www.murthy.com/2012/09/06/new...te-prediction/
"the DOS predicts that the cutoff date will remain at a 2006 date for some time beyond the October 2012 Visa Bulletin." Not clear what "some time beyond October" means, but looks like the best case may not happen. I'm hoping at least for the worst case. Praying...
gc_soon - Unfortunately when it comes to porting - what matters is EB3 backlog not EB2 backlog. There is tons and tons of EB3 backlog prior to July 2007 (min 50K I would guess). So to find 3K in 50K per year is a very safe bet. However it is also true that portings shouldn't exceed 5K (which many of us consider upper limit).
So regardless the date will be current between 3-9 months and your wife could follow you.
I wonder if you can bring her here on B1 i.e. tourist visa and then adjust her status?
I also wonder if you can file her as FB2 rather than EB2. FB2 for India is already current.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
Thanks Spec. The porting numbers seems scary. Seems like I have to wait for spill over.
I think you mean F2A when you say FB2 ?- the PD for that is May 2010 and my EB2 PD doesn't carry in that case, so no dice :( In most cases follow to join is faster than family based GC. But unfortunately, retrogression screwed up our lives.
Also, I can't bring my wife on any non-immigrant visa(B1/F1), since I have already established her immigration intent by filing an immigrant petition :( Only option would be H1, but in my case, it's not possible.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Agreed. I've said the same before about wage surveys and recruitment efforts (they are designed to achieve a singular objective - pay whatever wage the employer wants and make damn sure that no qualified American is found). The system is basically set up to be gamed. Still, each fraudulent app (EB1C or questionable educational evals or job reqt inflation or artificially low wages or fake degrees) hurt when one has to wait 5-7 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
gc_soon - Are you 100% sure that the PD won't carry?
Secondly - if I were you I would apply for a B visa regardless and just tell that eventually immigration intent exists. For now at least would like to visit US. What's teh worst case - the visa will be denied. It doesn't get worse than that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon
I received the Murthy newsletter just now and its clear from that , that the dates are going to be somewhere in 2006. here is thy link
http://us1.campaign-archive2.com/?u=...6&e=00c8410215
Yeah, I'm pretty sure about this. Family based petitions have the date you apply as PD.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Yeah, I explored that option, but my lawyer (and couple of outside lawyers) were strongly against it, as it could also raise some concern at the follow to join interview. But, thanks for the suggestion. I think I'll consider it again.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
An EB PD cannot be transferred to FB and vice versa.
The retention of a PD established under EB1-EB3 is covered by 8CFR 204.5(e)
This is repeated in the State Department FAM 9 FAM 42.53 N3 EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE PETITIONS section (a)Quote:
(e) Retention of section 203(b)(1) , (2) , or (3) priority date. (EB1 - EB3) -- A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple petitions under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date. A petition revoked under sections 204(e) or 205 of the Act will not confer a priority date, nor will any priority date be established as a result of a denied petition. A priority date is not transferable to another alien.
Section (c) says
I am sure the same statement is also in the USCIS AFM, but I haven't looked it up.Quote:
c. A priority date established in the employment-based first, second, or third preference category is not transferable to employment-based fourth or fifth preference petitions or to a family-sponsored petition.
If EB2-ROW stays retrogressed and there is no spillover to EB2-I, someone applying for a GC today in 2012 will not get it before that person retires. SO, there is no point keeping that person in queue. If the govt is not willing to make any legislative changes to address this issue, the best way out would be to have a lottery for 2,800 visas every year and let the others go or have them renew their temporary work permits.
Guys,
Thanks for all the info in the last 1 yr I have been on this forum. But I guess it is going to be a long haul for the GC and citizenship after that. In alignment with my career goals and family interests, I have taken the final call of going back home. I will be joining as a Marketing Manager at Ashok Leyland in the 1st week of October, in their corporate HQ in Chennai which also happens to be the city where I grew up.
Good luck to all in the forum here, and if anyone is looking to move back and needs any help, please feel free to contact me.
Cheers
Murali
Murali,Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Good luck. That must have been a very difficult decision.
I wish you all the best.
Spec
Murali,Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
All the Very Best with your career and life. I have a couple of friends who made the same decision and are leading a happy life right now. One of them is in Chennai, no less. Hope that gives you some good things to dream about :).
Murali,
Congratulations! Brave decision in my perspective. Chennai is my hometown too. All the best for your future.
murali,Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Wish you all the best.
As Q and others in this forums have been saying all along it is better no to plan anything around GC. After working for 6 years in a start-up and seeing all my colleagues who came after me moved to better positions in same start-up, i was stuck in same position for only reason GC/PD, i am also finally making a move to other company what ever happens it will, no matter if you have GC or not.
Thanks a lot guys. I have been flirting with this idea for quite sometime after my MBA. Most of the opportunities i was offered in india were in consulting, but i wanted to stick to marketing, and in specific in the manufacturing domain. So career always comes first to me and this opportunity will help me in that direction.
Sportsfan, thanks for the caution, will keep it in mind.
Spec, it was a tuf decision considering the fact that US does make life a little easy, but i am an eternal optimist and i see all the positives back home, will cross the bridge of negatives when i get there. The main concern i have is, I came to the US as a grad student right after my bachelors in india. Never ever worked in india, so i am sure i am in for some shocks.
Kanmani, i am so eager to go to saravana bhavan for dinner with my wife, first thing that comes to my mind when i think of living in chennai.
Wow hearing the name Ashok Leyland just hit me with loads of nostalgia. I miss Madras... well Chennai. Good Luck on your new endeavor.Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
If you are talking about EB3-I, I think the effect will be minimal. The majority of upgrades come from PD that will not be Current next year. 2002 upgrades are not many of the total, judging by the minimal evidence available.Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
I don't think it will help EB3-WW much either. If anything EB3-ROW has moved slower than expected for an unknown reason. Again any EB3-WW porting close to dates that will be Current is likely to be quite low.Quote:
2- Or in anyway will benefit EB-WW(For eg. EB3-WW may get current due these (upgrades?)
What is likely to happen is that EB3-ROW will exhaust the backlog to July 2007 in FY2013. There will probably be about 12k left according to the Demand Data. That should take 6-8 months to deplete. CO will need to move the Cut Off Dates beyond July 2007 about 3-4 months before then to ensure continued demand throughout the year. I don't think he will make it Current.
If he doesn't then EB3-ROW would run out of demand. If that was the case at the end of the FY, EB3-I would be the beneficiary of Fall Across, but I don't seriously think that will happen. The same will probably happen to EB3-Mexico, but it is a bit uncertain for EB3-Philippines - they may have to wait until FY2014.
It depends what you mean by large movement.Quote:
3 If SOFAD is very high for 2012/2011/2010/2009 and now expected to quite low - I know that you had given detailed explanations previously. Is there any change in logic now?) any chances for some large movement in next March/April?
It depends on how USCIS decide to handle the backlogged EB2-WW applications and the amount of EB2-I porting.
The words in the Notes from the meeting with CO make me more pessimistic than I was. Mention of EB2-WW retrogression suggests they will process the backlog as well as a normal yearly run rate.
I would prefer to wait and see what CO actually says in the October VB.
Murali - my heartiest wishes to you!! I truly admire your decision for two reasons:
1. Simply for making a decision and not hanging in in Limbo which unfortunately many of us - (including this writer - oink oink!!) do.
2. Sharing it with us!
I don't think going back or staying here by itself is right or wrong. Every person has different circumstances and reasons and goals. But you clearly are one of the rare ones who seem to have figured it out clearly. Good luck and if you happen to visit Pune or Mumbai at all - eat one or two "Kacchi Dabeli" in my name!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Spec/Q & other Champs..when do you guys think Eb2I with PD in Dec 2007 should expect actual green card in hand? Thanks in advance.
I have the same question, please let us know ur prediction for dec 2007. mine is dec 31, 2007. Seeing the news about EB2 moving back to 2006, i might have to reassess my career plans.. thanks a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by SmileBaba
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmileBaba
Guys,Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
I can't give you a prediction. The situation is very fluid and I certainly want to see the October Demand Data, October Bulletin and next USCIS Inventory before even thinking about one.
You both have as much information as I do.
Essentially, it comes down to whether more visas are available than are required to cover cases to the end of 2007.
Perhaps what I can do is give you an idea of what you may wish to take into account if you wish to try yourself.
Firstly, look at how many visas may be needed.
The September Demand Data says there are 5k EB2-I cases before 2008. These are cases that have already had a visa requested, so it should be the lowest base possible. You should be able to update that figure tomorrow.
We all know there are other factors to take into account.
a) The number of porting cases from June 2012 to the beginning of the the new FY. These will not yet appear in the Demand Data because USCIS cannot make the final conversion step and request a visa until the PD is Current (according to the AFM).
b) Porting cases to come that will be processed during FY2013.
The above will give you the number of visas required to reach a COD of 01JAN08 if cases were processed completely FIFO. You may wish to make an adjustment for the fact that this is never the case.
Secondly, consider the number of visas that may be available to EB2-I during FY2013.
a) Will EB get any extra visas from FB? Probably not, but make your own decision.
b) How many spare visas will there be from EB4, EB5.
c) How many visas will EB1 use? Will they need to use any spare visas from EB4/EB5? You will now know how many visas will fall down to EB2.
d) Will EB2-WW use any of the spare visas?
EB2-C will only have their initial 2.8k available unless your figure for spare visas is over c. 15k.
Add the number calculated above to the initial 2.8k already available and you should now have a figure for total visas available to EB2-I.
If your figure of available visas is equal to or higher than the number of visas required (which you calculated first), then the COD will cover all 2007 dates. If it is not, then COD will not reach the end of 2007.
I think you will find that the result is very sensitive to the assumptions you make.
Good luck.
Spec - as usual , very well explained. Thank you!Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
thanks a lot Spec! After taking e'thing into account looks like it could be difficult to cross EB2I PD of Dec 2007 next fiscal year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Will wait for your predictions once October demand data and visa bulletin becomes available.
I think one should always hope for the best but be prepared for the worst case scenario. In this ever changing situation, nobody can predict when EB2 india will cross 2007.
Best case scenario: EB 2 India crosses 2007 and goes to mid 2008 by end of FY 2013
Worst Case Scenario: EB2 india does not even cross 2007 august due to porting and lack of spillovers.
In any case, I think we should not hope for any good news (dates crossing 2006) before April 2013 (not for the first half of FY 2013).
Luck plays a major part in this situation. Someone with PD of Dec 2008 may have been lucky to get GC in March 2012 before visas ran out while some of us whose PD is 2007 may well have to wait till atleast april or may of 2013 which is a difference of atleast one year.(even though we filed earlier!)
Any updates from Mumbai Consulate?
All Moderators / Gurus
I have created the 2013 thread. Right now it is only visible to moderators. Please go to the thread and secure your place - which then you can use throughout the year to update your own predictions.
Let me give you all 5 days and then we will open this thread for all users!
Happy forecasting!
Q
Thanks Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Cheers
Murali
That is an awesome decision. I'm too thinking of such a decision, will reach out to you (PM) once I made up my mind, probably this year end.
Wishing you all the very best
Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Spec and Q,
Once the VB is out today, we look forward to your latest predictions.
Please also emphasize when it might cross Dec 07 for EB2 I as a bench mark .
Many thanks.
Perfecto
2.8 K it will be in strict sense. But as generally it is never the case and addtional visa numbers spill over always. But only be known on December/January. Till that time suspense may continue(frankly they may just allot 200-300 Visas/month in coming months)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The last updated date has changed for the Demand Data, but as yet, it still links to the September figures.
Changed now. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf