Spec - :).Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for numbers :)
Printable View
Spec - :).Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks for numbers :)
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2012 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2012 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,951
Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2012 the per-country limit is 25,967. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,419.
Based on this, do we have to assume that there will be country limit both FB and EB combined together?
from where did this new 4951 visas come from?
Can someone throw light on this.
Please check some of the previous posts, including, http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...9242#post29242 and the replies to that one.
The per country limit is based on combined FB and EB which is why South Korea EB2 never has a COD even though they use more than allocated EB visas. The additional 5K visas come from the FB quota. Spec and others have discussed this a few posts previously.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Spec, Q , Veni , Teddy ,
Would you guys please provide your take on predictions for 2013 and any possible surprises etc etc .
Understand lots of number crunching that went thanks to all gurus specially Spec for amazing clarity.
Eb2_Dec07,Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
I think you know how difficult that is.
I can give you some figures and you can make your own mind up.
Without presenting a huge spreadsheet, I have to make some assumptions. I will lay them out and if you violently disagree with any of them, I can use any assumptions you have, if you prefer.
a) I am using the current USCIS Inventory figures (I can use the latest DOS Demand figures or an average of the two).
b) 25% of pre 2007 cases will not be approved (no particular reason for that figure).
c) 5% of all cases in the Inventory will not be approved.
d) India will have 4.5k porting in FY2013. This is 3k porting for FY2013 itself plus 1.5k porting cases that have built up between May-October 2012 when dates were Unavailable. I think 3k / year is the minimum figure people have been using.
e) China will have 1.25k porting. That is a guess based very loosely on CO's comments.
Using the above, until the total SOFAD for EB2-IC reaches 15.25k, India will receive all spillover. After that, China starts to use some. China can reach about March 2008 on the 2.8k initial allocation with the assumptions above. This is taken into account below.
This would give the approximate movement for the EB2-IC SOFAD shown.
SOFAD EB2-IC ---- EB2-India
----- 8,000 ------- Pre August 2007
---- 10,000 ------- September 2007
---- 12,500 ------- December 2007
---- 15,000 ------- March 2008
---- 17,500 ------- April 2008
---- 20,000 ------- June 2008
---- 22,500 ------- July 2008
---- 25,000 ------- September 2008
---- 27,500 ------- November 2008
---- 30,000 ------- January 2009
I leave you decide what level of SOFAD is possible in FY2013.
Of course, it also makes an assumption that Cut Off Dates will be moved in a more logical manner in FY2013.
A PS to Q,
Maybe we are getting to the point where the FY2013 Prediction Thread should be started.
I must must say i am amazed the quality of the post , irrespective of the number crunching i must the way you frame words are excellent...i think you are CO(DOS) and you will provide more predictions in the future with great quality.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Lol.. ACP Pradyuman to Daya.. "Daya, Gaadi nikalo.. aur pataa karo yeh Spec kaun hain aur uske paas itni jaankari kaise hain? Numbers ka champion hain.. iska matlab hain isne jaroor school mein math padha hoga....Pataa karo is ilaake mein kaunse schools Mathematics padhate hain.. "Quote:
Who are you, Spec?
Translation (ACP Pradyuman and Daya are characters from CID.. a hindi detective series on Sony.. They are known for their ridiculous graphics and stupid dialogues)
ACP Pradyuman to Daya : " Daya.. get the car and find out who this Spec is and how does he know so much.. He is a champion of numbers and that brings me to the conclusion, he definitely studied Mathematics in school. Find out what are the schools that teach Mathematics in this area."
LOL ChampU.Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
ACP doing hand gestures as if he is solving rubic cube puzzle - "Daya tod do yeh darwaza aur nikalo Spec ko bahar aur pucho usase ki usaka Math teacher kaun tha aur usne excel modelling kahase sikha?"
"Daya, please break this door and get Spec out. Ask him about his Math teacher and the place where he learnt excel modelling."
Great work everyone. Esp. Spec, Teddy and "Q" among others !
Frankly speaking, I feel that your work keeps our hopes alive and that to me is a greater cause than getting close-to-real predictions. But you guys also excel in that area despite all obstacles.
Spec , as always superb analysis , no less than a work of art . I'm not surprised if you are an accountant or a project manager. Yes I do agree , it is that time to open a 2013 thread. Thanks for a great start on this topic . We look for comments from other great minds Q, Teddy , Veni and gurus before chiming in. Actually if I may ask, even better if gurus can start building on Spec's well followed through numbers and project a SOFAD for 2013 and variances in SOFAD based on other head/tail winds.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks guys, I'm humbled.
The quotes were hilarious (thanks for the translation). They sound like something Gene Hunt would say in Life On Mars or Ashes To Ashes.
It is an excellent analysis.
Hats off SPEC !
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Wow FY13 thread already. I remember the start of the FY12 thread. Time really flies...although not fast enuff when u r waiting for GC.
Spec,
Just a very naive question: for SOFAD EB2-IC, you are considering 5.6K year quota for IC + spillovers (going by the definition), right? So, 8K SOFAD implies 2.4K spillover. Also, your table shows EB2-I date to be pre-Aug'07 for total 8K SOFAD. Out of this 8K for EB2-IC, 5.2K will go to EB2-I. I guess, the assumption is most of these 5.2K visas will be consumed by EB3->EB2 porting cases with PD prior to Aug'07. Am I correct in my understanding here? The dates in the table then progressively move forward based on more spillover visas. I think the above table will be a good guideline for predicting 2013 PDs with 3 mains unknowns for estimating the spillovers: i) EB1 usage, incl. FD from EB1->EB2, ii) FA from EB2ROW->EB2I/C (we believe this is going to be less than usual) and iii) spillovers from EB5 (which going by the numbers available might be fewer this year).
As usual, an excellent, lucid and detailed analysis from you!
pch053,Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
These are very good questions.
That is correct. SOFAD refers to all visas available, including the 5.6k initial allocation to EB2-IC.Quote:
Just a very naive question: for SOFAD EB2-IC, you are considering 5.6K year quota for IC + spillovers (going by the definition), right? So, 8K SOFAD implies 2.4K spillover.
Again, correct. Out of the 8k, EB2-I would use 5.2k. The 5.2k would be split as 0.7k existing cases plus 4.5k porting.Quote:
Also, your table shows EB2-I date to be pre-Aug'07 for total 8K SOFAD. Out of this 8K for EB2-IC, 5.2K will go to EB2-I. I guess, the assumption is most of these 5.2K visas will be consumed by EB3->EB2 porting cases with PD prior to Aug'07. Am I correct in my understanding here?
Also, as I think you already understand, it is important to understand that these represent FY ending dates if the visas were approved logically. Approval of cases during the year later than the ending date would push the final date backwards. An orderly progression through the year is not going to happen and a certain number of porting cases will be spread throughout the year - they do not all already exist ready to go. Cases near the opening COD will have a better chance of approval initially.
I'm pretty sure that if CO followed true monthly allotments of about 250 cases per month, then existing "ready to approve" porting cases could use the allotment for several months, but I don't think that is how it will happen. Even without new porting cases, there are already significant numbers for a Cut Off Date of mid August 2007. That seems to be the earliest that CO will open FY2013, so most of the total initial allocation of 2.8k is going to be used very quickly.
I think those are the only ones we might be able to gauge. In addition there are the unknowns of EB4 and whether FB makes another contribution. Generally, I think we have to "ignore" these until we get some further information. If EB4 is low again in FY2012, then we should probably factor in a contribution, but the there never seems to be any updates on EB4 during the year. I hope DOS return to publishing the Visa Statistics in January.Quote:
I think the above table will be a good guideline for predicting 2013 PDs with 3 mains unknowns for estimating the spillovers: i) EB1 usage, incl. FD from EB1->EB2, ii) FA from EB2ROW->EB2I/C (we believe this is going to be less than usual) and iii) spillovers from EB5 (which going by the numbers available might be fewer this year).
Obviously, I am hoping to be able to update the figures based on a USCIS Inventory as of October 1, 2012 or thereabouts. Most of the 1.5k allowed for new porting cases between May-October 2012 should then be included in the bases figures and we can just use a base porting figure.
We are now in the end game for FY2012, so here's some speculation for the numbers via back calculation.
EB1 appears to be heading for mid 30 thousands - let's call it 35k, which yields 6.5k spillover. EB1 usage may be slightly higher, but approvals seem to come in spurts on Trackitt.
EB5 appears to be heading for 6.2k according to CO, which yields 4k spillover.
The EB2 allocation of 41.5k plus the spillover above gives a total of 52k.
The EB2-WW share of that allocation is 35.5k. If we take the 8k backlog for EB2-WW that most people are talking about due to retrogression, then EB2-WW have used 27.5k of 52k.
That means EB2-IC have used 24.5k.
If EB4 contributes anything, it would both increase the total available to EB2 and the numbers used by EB2-IC.
Those numbers are surprisingly close to what I have calculated. I have EB2-WW at a slightly lower figure and EB2-IC at a slightly higher figure.
Directionally, I think the numbers are probably about right.
I think we are now starting to use the final month's worth of visas and expect them to run out in the first half of September, as they did last year.
Edit to add:
CO said previously in late February (in the Alan Lee article) "that he expected approximately 55,000 EB-2 numbers to be available for the year" (FY2012). I think this sets the upper bound of visas available to EB2. The number may have (and almost certainly have) subsequently reduced due to higher approvals elsewhere
It is possible that EB2-IC have already been given some of the EB2-WW allocation and the figure is higher than that calculated above, but the limit to that increase would be 3k. That would also lower the number already consumed by EB2-WW and set the expected backlog in the 6-9k range.
The other alternative, already discussed above, is that CO is expecting up to 3k to be available from EB4.
Spec don't forget 5k from fb that was declared in separate bulletin.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Spec numbers above include FB spillover.
oh ok... that's how he (think so!) calculates 41.5k limit.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
From a previous post
Quote:
It is allocated per the original % allocations to the EB Categories given in INA 203(b). It will be used this year FY2012 because the under use by FB occurred in FY2011.
EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%
For 144,951 visas the split would be (extra in brackets):
EB1 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB2 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB3 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB4 - 10,292 - (352)
EB5 - 10,291 - (351)
Total - 144,951 - 4,951
My desire is not to say this is how it is. Rather, I would like to stimulate some discussion. I would like to understand what other people are thinking and why.
Feel free to use your own figures in the calculation below.
Based on EB2-IC having received 25k in FY2012.
Based on EB2-WW backlog of 8k due to retrogression.
Based on 145k EB visas in FY2012.
The simple underlying SOFAD would be
Gross SOFAD ------ 25
Less WW backlog -- (8)
Net SOFAD -------- 17
What would happen if the same number were available in FY2013?
No-one knows whether EB will receive extra visas from FB in FY2013. If not, only 140k visas would be available. The extra available in FY2012 (approx 2k) needs to be deducted.
Net SOFAD FY2012 --------------- 17.0
Less extra from FB in FY2012 --- (3.4)
SOFAD corrected for 140k -------- 13.6
Increased usage by EB5 can reduce the number available by 2-4k. This is probable due to the increased I-526 receipts USCIS have received.
Corrected SOFAD for FY2013 ------ 13.6
Less increase in EB5 approvals -- (3.0)
SOFAD corrected for EB5 usage --- 10.6
EB1, EB2-WW and EB4 use are the variable for FY2013.
I don't see any evidence that EB1 approvals will decline. The underlying backlog was increased by 10k in FY2011 due to low approvals (the I-140 numbers and denial ratios should have given 35-36k) and appears to have been left at that level during FY2012. However, there haven't been any published I-140 figures for EB1 for a considerable time, but it seems relatively unlikely that the annual numbers have declined.
There is a chance that EB2-WW will use some of the available spillover due to the backlog that has built up.
On the other hand, USCIS may just continue with a higher backlog for EB2-WW, as they appear to have done for EB1.
Until retrogression, EB2-WW did look on course to use close to their full allocation.
Eventually, the PERM data suggests that EB2-WW approvals should fall (unless they have abandoned EB3 altogether). The middle ground is to say that EB2-WW will neither use or contribute spillover in FY2013.
Currently, I have no idea about EB4. If EB4 is underused in FY2012, as it was in FY2011, then it should be considered a factor for FY2013 spillover. Untill then, it is "one off" for calculation purposes in my eyes.
Spec - I need to do some work before I say I disagee or agree w your numbers. My gut feel is you may be understating sofad for 2012. For 2013 I have suggestion though purely from a conceptual perspective as folllows:
If EB2IC received X sofad and EB2ROW accumulated "incremental" Y backlog in 2012. Then in 2013 everything else being the same EB2IC should expect to see (X - 2Y) sofad assuming DOS/USCIS is not sacrificing or starving EB2ROW as they did in 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The movement would be anyway from December 2007 to September 2008.
It could be dragged down or up due to variable factors at that time
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for the reply.
I agree that the SOFAD number is still up in the air, within certain bounds. I needed to use a figure and I understand it is lower than you think it probably is.
I also agree that in the absence of any other factors, (X - 2Y) would be correct.
Using that terminology, I am using (X - 1Y - A - B) where A is loss of extra visas as a result of 145k to EB in FY2012 and B is the loss of visas due to increased EB5 usage in FY2013. I have discussed why I haven't taken account of a further loss of 1Y. TBH, the figures become too awful to imagine if I do that.
I look forward to your further thoughts when you have had time to think about it.
Spec
Excellent point on 5K. So taking that into account ...
My first cut understanding is that in 2012 EB2IC received about 31K total visas. Of which 8K they received in a non-secular manner by starving EB2ROW. So in 2013 we should expect to see 31K - 8K*2 - 5K = 10K.
So with that we can realistically expect 2013 to clear backlog through Feb 2008 - which means the dates will move around May 2008 at a minimum.
In reality - I think that is too harsh a calculation and we are missing something. My gut feel (SWAG if you will) is really Jun-Sep 2008. Let me gather more data points before I can speak intelligently about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec/ Q,
Is it reasonable to assume in the vicinity of 10 K to 12 K sofad for 2013.
If so I would assume the dates should move atleast till the end of Dec07 for EB2-I end of 2013 right .
Thx
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Dec 2007 is the worst case scenario. i think spec and I agree that it could be upto Sep 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I also read somewhere and I wish if you could confirm that there is going to be no movement in EB2I category for the FY2013.
Q, I think the 25K includes the initial allotment for EB2-IC. So shouldn't your calculation be 25K- 8K*2 - 5K = 4K. This is probably what Spec was scared to calculate !!
Spec, can you provide a breakdown of 25K as per your estimates (how much from different spillovers). Thanks for the detailed post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Sorry, but I would not agree.
Even using the current DOS Demand figures (which practically represent the lowest numbers) and ignoring any further porting numbers, then SOFAD of 12k (which is 9.2k for EB2-I) would only cover up to sometime in May 2008.
Currently DOS Demand shows about 5k EB2-I cases to the end of 2007 for EB2-I.
Once the effect of Porting and the final likely numbers (nearer the USCIS Inventory figure of 6.1k for cases before 2008 for EB2-I) are taken into account, I think a date in December 2007 would be about right for the 9.2k available to EB2-I.
EB2-C can go further than this purely on their 2.8k allocation.
Druvraj - That would be not only too extreme but almost impossible. I guarantee there will be a minimum 6 months movement. Can't be less than that under ANY circumstances.
Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
Ghost, I am starting with 31K. The logic is really all of 2007K less 5K + 1/3rd of 2008 EB2IC was cleared in 2012. My calculations bring that to 31K.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
Spec - based on 12K you are right. But earlier I said that something is missing here and I couldn't quite come to terms to 12K sofad. So my gut feel is that Sep 2008 should be reachable.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
GhostWriter,Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
Very roughly, it would be something like :
EB1 ---------------- 6.5
EB2-WW ------------- 8.7
EB4 ---------------- ---
EB5 ---------------- 4.0
Spillover --------- 19.2
EB2-IC allocation -- 5.8
Total ------------- 25.0
Don't get hung up on the exact figures.
Thanks Spec, Q.
Spec, so the FB based extra 2K went to EB1 and EB2-WW and Eb2-IC received it indirectly through those spillovers.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Then you probably need to find around 10k extra visas from somewhere. :)
Guys my 31K is based on following 485 demand from EB2IC.
India
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0, 3,045
Feb - 0. 2,835
Mar - 0 2,310
Apr - 0 2,835
May - 0 2,625
Jun - 0 2,205
Jul - 0 2,152
Aug 2,415 2,133
Sep 2,415 1,995
Oct 2,730 2,520
Nov 2,520 2,100
Dec 2,310 2,188
China
EB2 2007 2008
Jan - 0 1,015
Feb - 0 945
Mar - 0 770
Apr - 0 945
May - 0 875
Jun - 0 735
Jul - 0 717
Aug 805 711
Sep 805 665
Oct 910 840
Nov 840 700
Dec 770 729
Based on this and the fact that 1/3 of 2008 is already approved and only 5K is remaining of 2007 & about equal or more was backlog from Oct 2011. 31K is the minimum SOFAD that EB2IC received in 2012.
Not quite. See post #7908.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
An extra 1,456 was available from EB1.
An extra 391 was available from EB5.
That's 1,847 which I rounded up to 2k.
If EB4 contributed then that would be an extra 392 making 2,239 in total.
Either way, 2k is a convenient figure to use.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am sorry for the question. What I really wanted to ask was in the first 6 months of the FY 2013 there will be no movement right? We will see movement only in the last half of the year i.e. April onward...
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Based on your approach there must have been around 8-9k approvals during Feb/March2012 for EB2IC just for PDs between Apr152008-Dec312008. This is just for applications filed In January 2012 and there must be approvals from previous month's(Dec2012) applications, if we assume that number to be around 4-5k, in Total there were around 12-14k EB2IC approvals in Feb/March 2012. I find it little hard to believe that CO didn't recognize that for almost 2 months.
Druvraj no need to be sorry. Just shoot a question if u have one. I think there will be movement even during q1 let alone 6 months. How much? Don't know.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
Openaccount. Sorry didn't understand ur logic.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount