Trackitt EB2-I user is reporting that he/she received the NVC Notice. EB2-I PD June 2011
Link: EB2-I PD June 2011
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Trackitt EB2-I user is reporting that he/she received the NVC Notice. EB2-I PD June 2011
Link: EB2-I PD June 2011
That is interesting in that DoS is gaining confidence to do this. That being said, here are some of the past NVC receiptsQuote:
Originally Posted by NeelVohra
Reported Receipt date-----------PD
17Jan2012--------------------------01Mar2011
01Feb2012--------------------------18Feb2011
07Feb2012--------------------------30Jun2011
17Feb2012--------------------------24Jan2011
22feb2012--------------------------01may2011
23feb2012--------------------------14jun2011
28feb2012--------------------------02feb2011
28feb2012--------------------------01mar2011
08mar2012--------------------------22jun2011
And Now,
12Jun2012--------------------------23jun2011
I am quite sure, by Jan 2013 the cutoff date cannot be in 2011. So I am befuddled.
All except the last one were issued when the flood gates had been opened under a different set of assumptions. I wouldn't consider those. But the last one is definitely intriguing. Keep in mind though that, once paid, the fee is valid forever.Quote:
Originally Posted by chengisk
just a word about Sept. visa bulletin. Normally VBs are posted by 10th of the month and most often a day after the DD. Is there anything more to the Sept. bulletin or just a procedural delay?
Billu - it should be out by Wed for sure. Perhaps even Mon or Tue.Quote:
Originally Posted by billu77
Corrected the date. You are right, I do not think there is much to this. But what gets me is that someone with 2011 PD is looking at 2016 to be current. Think DoS has a good investment banker?Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I have a PD of October 2008 - when can I expect Green Card ?
Well at least that's the feeling I got by reading some of your posts in previous pages. But that's not the point. Let me give you example from this forum itself. Last year Teddy was first to predict EB2 dates to be around Jan 2008 by end of FY2012. And as we all know now he was spot on if things moved logically. ( he was spot on in terms of porting numbers too). But things did not move logically and value of his prediction( numbers wise) was lost in the process. So the point is predicting numbers has the value and not the date IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Even GODS can not take away your right to express thoughts :) I am mere mortal here , just making point that number predictions(and debate) is much more 'valuable' than date prediction as it is kind of waste of time ,IMO, specially when we know behavior of agencies involved and lot of unknown unknowns.
And one more time thank you very much for all number calculations and other very informative posts.
Nope. Not frustrated at all. I have reached a stage ( or age may be :)) where you don't get frustrated with things not in your control. My point is predicting dates under assumption that agencies will act logically may not add much value,IMO. To give example, in your above posts you are assuming some numbers based on what CO said. Well, we all know what was said in Jan, Feb,Mar VBs this year and how that dramatically changed in matter of one VB.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
Hi,
Since the ROW visa cutoff date is now Jan 2009, how does that affect people who are porting from eb3 to eb2? My eb3 PD was Jun2008, but I ported to EB2 and applied 485 just a few days before the ROW dates retrogressed to Jan2009. When my application gets processed, will I be getting visas from the EB2 ROW pool or from spillover pool? I read somewhere that uscis assigns visa to ported applicants from the spillover visas it gets from other categories. I am hoping I interpreted it wrong, but if not, does it mean I have to wait until after October 2012 for any chance at a visa?
Since your ported PD is not retrogressed, you should expect GC in anytime during processing time which should be 3-6 months for EB2ROW. Good luck!
Quote:
Originally Posted by ihp62as
OMB - it depends on your country of chargeability and category. Assuming your EB2I - i would bet Oct 2007 should get it by Dec 2012 max.
For Oct 2008 - I would say Sep 2013 with 80-90% of chance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by obamamerabaap
I hope so! I just wanted a little more clarity if you don't mind, how does the visa bulletin take into account porting applicants? e.g., say in the visa bulletin posted in April for May 2012, they have 1000 visas available for eb2-row PD upto April2012. If they get 200 applicants porting from EB3 to EB2, these 200 applicants will get the visas from the 1000 May bucket, correct? So for next month, they will have only 800 visas for original eb2-ROW, correct?
Q-Based on the pessimistic mood around EB2I date move in FY2013, what makes you still so positive about OCt 2008 becoming current in Dec 2012?
Isnt it more like oct 2008 getting current in FY2014 end.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Quote:
Originally Posted by ihp62as
Q - you are assuming ihp62as is ROW. If he/she is IC, then what you say won't apply.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
IHP - are you IC or ROW ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q - did you mean Dec 2013 ? That's the earliest Oct 2008 can be current again.Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
Yes, vizcard, I am ROW.
Visa bulletin doesn't care for porting. All they see is visa demand coming in from USCIS. When USCIS sees all 485 applications for ROW - they are going to process the ones with oldest PD first. In this case since your date is ported - they will consider the ported date as a normal EB2ROW PD for your application and it will be picked up processed and when approved a visa number will be requested from DOS. Then DOS will simply assign it since the PD is available. Quota doesn't matter here since they have already factored in the probable demand and accordingly retrogressed the EB2ROW dates.Quote:
Originally Posted by ihp62as
p.s. - So when EB2ROW is made current as you can imagine - the general monthly demand is less than or equal to monthly quota for EB2ROW which should be about 9% of 28K-34K depending on whether DOS actually carves out MP quota separately for EB2MP. I am not sure. For EB2M actually it doesn't make sense. For EB2P it may.
Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
Harapatta and Vizcard - I misread the date as Oct 2007 and hence I replied Dec 2012. However for Oct 2008 - s/he should get it by Sep 2013. I think Oct 2008 could be current for EB2IC by May 2013. The reason being that although ROW is backlogged ... it was only for 3-4 months. It has to become current in Oct 2012 bulletin. It will become current. So effectively the ROW impact is probably 8K. That 8K is probably offset by the EB2IC 8K from 2008 that were approved in 2012 year. So we are talking about 1 year of EB2IC demand between Oct 2008-Oct 2007. Will that be cleared in 2013? I think so.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
That is approximately equal to total SOFAD of anywhere between 24K-30K (less 8K approved in 2012). I still think that it is quite possible. But we will know better with the next 485 inventory of course.
D. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On August 8th, CIS provided the required data to VO.
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2012 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2012 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,951
Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2012 the per-country limit is 25,967. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,419.
VB Sep 2012 Out and Dates not moved. Its Copy of Aug 2012 Bullitein
Thanks Kanmani.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Good point is EB1 is still current.
I like the fact that EB1 remains current... so the initial rumors that EB2 IC was over allocated spillover from EB1 can be put to rest.
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5759.html
September VB is out, good to see EB1 as current and EB2 ROW still available. Next milestone is when they announce that numbers are over for the year. For EB1 still cases filed as far back as 2011 are being approved.
Not at all, otherwise EB2-WW would not be retrogressed.Quote:
Originally Posted by vishnu
It just means that there are just enough visas for demand, helped by the extra 1.5k received by EB1 because of the increase in the overall allocation to 145k.
Spec - when i mentioned overallocated, i did mean overallocating more visas to EB2 than what is required by EB1 itself...and that appears not to be the case.
All - My priority date is Feb 2008. When can I expect the GC?
well said. Agree.On another note - check out the dates for F2A. They are in 2010 across the board.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
We have said it many times on this forum and we repeat again - even this correction of counting dependent numbers from F2A as opposed to EB2 would significantly alleviate EB woes.
This is what F2A is:
A. (F2A) Spouses and Children of Permanent Residents: 77% of the overall second preference limitation, of which 75% are exempt from the per-country limit;
If I understand the process and read the data correctly, we can safely assume that in Oct. bulletin:
1. The COD for EB2-ROW goes away and it becomes current again.
2. EB2- IC become available and have a COD of around July/August 2007.
For rest of the Fy-2013,
3. The COD for Q1-FY 2013 bulletins remain stagnant or have very marginal movement (< a month). This allows CO to judge the demand and have a ballpark estimate of the possible SO..
4. The COD moves to possibly end of CY-2007 by the end of Q2.. CO plays it safe and has enough wiggle room to accommodate demand spikes (if any) for the rest of the year..
5. In FY-Q3 and Q4, the COD moves anywhere between 3-15 months, depend on the demand..
Comments??
Agree with all of your points except 4th pointQuote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
4.EB2ROW had COD for 2012-Q4 so there will be decent number of applications in Q1-2013(Q1-2013+Q4-2012) which would eventually convert to demand by Q2-2013, if this demand is less than what CO expects at that point of time then what you mentioned might happen.
DOS published limit was 140k but EB received an additional 4,951 from FB spillover!Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
DOS published limit was 140k but EB received an additional 4,951 from FB spillover!
So, these additional visas from FB will go to EB2-ROW and reduce it's backlog by 5K or will it go to EB1.
it doesn't matter eitherway. However one can say that since this is a new find on DoS' part, this will alleviate ROW retrogression and makes it a certainty that the dates will become current in October (unless HR3012 passes).
If HR3012 passes EB2ROW should expect further retrogression.
Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
Spec/Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Do you know how SO from FB is distributed across EB and when is it allocated in FY2012 or FY2013. I believe it is used up in FY2012 most probably by EB2IC as this category consumed more.
It is allocated per the original % allocations to the EB Categories given in INA 203(b). It will be used this year FY2012 because the under use by FB occurred in FY2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%
For 144,951 visas the split would be (extra in brackets):
EB1 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB2 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB3 - 41,456 - (1,456)
EB4 - 10,292 - (352)
EB5 - 10,291 - (351)
Total - 144,951 - 4,951
For EB1-EB3, 7% rises from 2,803 to 2,902 visas. and 7% over all EB rises from 9,800 to 10,147.
EB2 would have received an extra 1,807 spillover visas from EB1 & EB5. Whether EB4 is going to give any is unknown.
I don't have any data to back it up, but I think FB -> EB transfer occurs as a band aid to ensure the DoS meets its year end goals. e.g. The priorities for DoS for FY2012 might be to :Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
A. Ensure EB1 stays C
B. Provide enough visas to ensure that the backlog created by establishing a COD for EB2-ROW is addressed and the category remains C in the new FY. While the DoS cannot control the demand, they can always move visa numbers at their disposal.
5k is a large enough number to ensure both..
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you & very informative post from you, as you do always especially with data :)
Spec:Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
A few questions regarding the numbers:
1. Are the 4951 numbers are distributed throughout the entire year or is it a last month/last quarter infusion?
2. If EB2 did receive the 1807 extra visas and with EB2 - IC being "U" since June, shouldn't the COD for EB2-ROW move, at least by a week? It hasn't moved since it was established in July.
Meanwhile, EB3 dates have been moving at a rate more than usual, since June.. It could be because of 1456 visas (or possibly more.. )
The extra 5k visas in FY2012 is all very nice, but it doesn't fundementally change anything for next year.
The extra 1.5k available to EB1 may, or may not have saved having to impose a Cut Off Date within EB1 this year, but it doesn't really matter since the numbers were only ever going to be quite low anyway.
EB2-WW will still have been retrogressed for 3 months and 6-8k approvals will now take place in FY2013 instead of FY2012 (unless the backlog is allowed to increase).
Assuming it represents a real increase in EB2-WW approvals next year, that reduces the spillover to EB2-I by the same amount (unless spillover is extremely high, EB2-C won't receive any).
I know it essentially all irons out in the wash, since there were extra approvals in FY2012, but they weren't exactly strictly by PD order were they?
6-8k represents a significant % of any spillover for FY2013 and several months movement for EB2-I. Unlike Q, I do not think EB2-I can look forward to historic levels of spillover visas in FY2013. I fear it is going to be a very difficult year, unfortunately IMO.
(hope that doesn't sound too much like a prediction suninphx) :)
Spec - I hope you don't have a job writing fortune cookies :P
On a more serious note, I believe the reality is somewhere between Q and Spec's analysis. There is usually some unplanned event that results in date predictions getting screwed. (Note I said dates and not numbers). I don't count HR3012 in that "unplanned event" bucket.
ChampU,Quote:
Originally Posted by ChampU
The only reason we have only just found out about the extra visas is that DOS rely on getting some information from USCIS to "officially" set the FB limit (immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and number of parolees in the second preceding year). The September VB confirms that USCIS were even later than usual supplying that information:
However, the exact numbers do not alter the fact that FB would get 226,000 anyway because the calculation is always going to default to the minimum number of 226,000 because of how the calculation is made. I covered this in a post a few pages back.Quote:
These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On August 8th, CIS provided the required data to VO.
DOS knew the number of FB approvals in FY2011 shortly after FY2011 closed, so they also knew that EB had an allocation of about 145k for FY2012. DOS normally publish the Visa Report in January, but waited until August this year for some unknown reason.
With the possible exception of October, IMO the visas have been allocated all year by DOS with the certain knowledge of the higher number available.
There is no thought in my mind that this "news" has had any effect in the last quarter or last month.
I hope that answers your question.