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Thanks QQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
When you say 2012 means before Sep 2012 or Dec 2012 ? I mean I would get a chance in upcoming bulletin which are going to generate demand ? or Deep later in 2012 like Nov 2012 where DOS will try to generate demand for 2013 ?
I mean Sep 2012. Regarding timing of intake, I have always maintained that they must generate demand before end of Q2. i.e mar 2012. With the October bullletin CO showed an appetite to take in fresh demand even earlier. Nobody knows exactly when they will do it. But in next 1-5 months for sure they must take all the cases they think will be able to process in 2012.
My "judgement" is that Jan 2008 should scrape through.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_usa
My priority is may 2 2007. I will be current in October.I applied 485 in 2007. I was asking about my chances of getting GC in next month or so..Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Sorry - I misread. For a normal case without any "locha" it should be a matter of days and weeks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rahil1
thanks you Q. Hope you are right...Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
News from Murthy
1. Visa Number Limit Reached for FY11
The U.S. Department of State (DOS) issued an announcement dated September 15, 2011 stating that all employment-based (EB) visa numbers for fiscal year 2011 (FY11) have been utilized. This means that no more immigrant visa numbers are available in the EB categories until October 1, 2011. This does not prevent qualified applicants from filing for adjustment of status to permanent residence under the cutoff dates in the September 2011 Visa Bulletin, valid through the end of September.
No Cause for Alarm: Reaching Annual Limits is the Goal
The DOS announcement is not a cause for alarm. It simply means that the EB immigrant visa numbers for FY11 have been depleted. FY11 ends on September 30, 2011. It is normal for the numbers to run out prior to the end of the fiscal year. It is the goal of the DOS to establish cutoff dates in a manner that will minimize any waste of immigrant visa numbers by having a surplus at the end of the year. (Unused immigrant visa numbers do not automatically roll over to the next fiscal year.) This goal has to be balanced against certain limitations on the immigrant numbers that can be used during the first three quarters of the fiscal year and the goal of having numbers available throughout that twelve-month period.
Lack of Available EB Numbers Impacts GC Approvals
With no available EB immigrant visa numbers, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) will be unable to approve additional EB I-485 ("green card") cases in September 2011. In order to issue an approval of an I-485, there must be a visa number available. These immigrant visa numbers are issued by the DOS, and the September 15th, 2011 announcement makes it clear that no more visa numbers are available for FY11. Some individuals still may receive approval notices for their I-485s after September 15th, 2011, as there is a slight delay between the approval and transmission of the notice.
I-485 Adjustment Applications may be Filed
The lack of visa numbers does not have an impact on the eligibility to file I-485 cases under the September 2011 Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. The cutoff dates in the Visa Bulletin remain valid until the end of the month, permitting the filing of I-485s, even if the actual visa numbers are not immediately available.
FY2012 Begins October 1, 2011
New EB visa numbers will become available on October 1, 2011. This is reflected in the October Visa Bulletin, discussed in our September 16, 2011 NewsBrief, October 2011 Visa Bulletin: Forward Movement for EB2 India / China. The USCIS can continue to process I-485 applications and request visa numbers from the DOS. Those requests will simply be held by the DOS in a pending capacity. Visa numbers will be issued for these cases as visa numbers become available beginning Monday, October 3, 2011 - the first business day of the month. We would expect that approval notices will start to arrive a few days later. MurthyDotCom and MurthyBulletin readers will be updated on important matters related to the visa bulletin and availability of visa numbers.
Need little help. People here are saying that DOS did this pipeline building last year for FB too. I am trying to find how long they took to build this pipeline. I compiled the data for Oct 2007 to May 2011. Looking into this what are your thoughts on how long will DOS take to build the pipeline ?
What I understand so far is, most likely by end of
2012 Sept - PD dates will move through Jan - Mar 2008
2012 Oct - PD dates will move through Feb - May 2008 (if they start taking in fresh cases to build the pipeline as they did this Oct 2011)
Please correct me If I am wrong, this is assuming if everything goes normal....
I think it should be 2008..
Quote:
Originally Posted by kolugc
This I also had pointed earlier.
My feeling is they can't hold the line for a very long time because they have at least 8k pre-adudicated apps already, n these folks will be tormenting :) CIS for status.
Next two VB should have movement it seems exactly like FB. How much no one can read their mind, but 3 months at a time is a gut feeling.
End of 2007 is really needed I feel.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Quote:
Originally Posted by evoori
Nishant completely agree with you.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Following is the current situation for EB2 – India.
- Assumptions – 2011 SOFAD is ~ 30K.
- We saw towards the end of 2011 the date movement slowed down considerably and the agencies reported that there was a spurt in EB1 and EB2 ROW demand.
- This can be substantiated by the USCIS dashboard (USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends) in the months of May & June the number of I140 approvals was quite high, in fact 50% higher. This released a huge number of EB2 ROW and EB1 485’s in the next 2 months that is why the Aug bulletin movement was conservative and there was no movement in the September bulletin.
- Also note that the I140 backlog is 10K above the levels of last year so any further acceleration to clear this out in this year itself will diminish SOFAD from anywhere between 5-10K.
- The EB5 program is being marketed very aggressively this year this year only saw 6K SOFAD for EB5.
- The current demand till Jul 15th is ~ 12K.
- Porting would be in the 4-6K range.
- Assumption of using 30K SOFAD and 4K porting would be the best case scenario.
- Let’s assume a rough density of EB2 I/C to be 2.5K Per month.
- Best case scenario 30K SOFAD, 4K porting this means 14K new intake required. This will be possible only when the intake is done in the next 2 months if done later things will shift to the conservative side because there is potentially high EB2 ROW and EB1 demand.
- Worst case scenario 25K SOFAD 6K porting this means 7K new intake required.
Now in the best case scenario which is a long shot (Less than 10% chance) the dates will move till 15th Jan – 1st Feb. If the agencies want to keep a buffer they may even move to the end of March. This scenario it’s extremely optimistic but not impossible but I would urge everyone not to bank or hope for it and be disappointed later on.
Realistically another 10K additional intake should happen this should move the dates till Nov 2007 and have Dec 2007 as a buffer.
In the worst case which seems more likely for actual GC issuance this year only 7K intake is required this would move the dates to 01 Oct 2007 to 15-Oct 2007.
Following is my current belief the dates will move till the end of 2007 to take fresh intake, however by Sep 2011 GC issuance will stop somewhere in Oct 2007. This will be revised several times most important thing is how EB2 ROW and EB1 actually perform in the year, most importantly in the earlier quarters.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Teddy,
I have always admired your analysis along with Q and others. According to Spec there is a need of 25K visa to reach March 1 2008 date. If we follow the trend observed in the last 4 years the SOFAD has been between 22K to 30K depending on whom you ask. So if USCIS and/or DOL are not gauging demand and actually generating demand I guess they should have an additional buffer of at least 3-6K. So in your most pessimistic demand of 7K additional visas I would add another 3-6K if not more to account for people who have given up. Again how much buffer uscis/dol is anybody guess because it is my understanding they do not want to waste visas.
This gives me a nice segway to note an observation, I always used to look forward to the months of June-sept for the sofad, but going forward I will be looking forward to oct-dec bulletins.
Have faith good things are coming.
Teddy, very nicely laid out...thx
The numbers are not disappointing. This is from 07/07 till now. 93K EB2IC in 4 years is par for the course - less than 2K per months. The rate has been 2.5K per month for the PD period we are currently going through (mid to late 2007 ).
I am quite surprised about ONLY 12K EB2C after 07/07. If not for India claiming so much SOFAD, EB2C could have been current in a year or so - but because of EB2I, that is not going to happen for a long long time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RMS_V13
I agree with you on the people who have abandoned their applications, no one knows for sure how many people, but yes if I do it by saying 2K per month instead of 2.5K I believe it would be fair to assume 500 dropouts in the month or do you feel that it could be more. The 500 PM would fall in your range, let’s all hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
It is true that they don't want to waste visas and look bad when so much backlog. at the same time they may not want too much gate open so USCIS random approve I 485s. They can have at least 8k buffer like what they had this year from Sep to Oct and still they will be able to move on next oct - sep. I would say they will make intake of 35k - (12k on hand ) - 5k ( porting ) = 18k which should move date till Q1 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
When ? I guess sooner in next bulletin or dec bulletin.
Why ? If they keep doing small 3-4 months movement till Q2 , uscis will come up with some demand and it will be hard for them to satisfy them and uscis will force them to retro date.
In Nov they will move - Nov 2007 and in Dec they will move March 2008.
Teddy I dont get the 12K demand upto July 15 07 . Can you pls explain?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Current demand data shows 8.5K, we would expect 3.5K PWMB's who became current to file in Oct to make it 12K.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Is it possible to put % of IT non IT PERMS? I believe at height of recession IT was least affected. Though I have 5-6 friends (my friends ...no friend of friend story here) in IT/NON-IT and went back during that period. Most of them do not have any intent to come back even if PD becomes current. And as i understand from them main reason for that is once you back back and work in BIG IT names in India you are generally put in managerial role and then coming back and hunting for job becomes difficult as you might loose touch with technology. )As far as I know there is much more demand for 'hands on' people than 'managers' in US.)Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
So it will be interesting to see how many actual filings will come out of 2008 PD.
I was co-incidentally just talking to some gurus about this, and this is portion of the email:
About the drop out rate or reduction factors etc, a thought comes to mind.
People who got in the July 2007 fiasco ride, got the cushion of EAD.
Other people could not.
If you don't have cushion of EAD, many folks would have faced
difficulties maintaining job profiles, H1 visa, especially more so
difficult for consulting jobs.
An example: you are having a hard time, no project, or no pay stubs or
proper tax history for sometime, your family member someone in India
gets diagnosed with some sickness, and if you go visit, your H1 is
going to be screwed up by consulate.
Another example: simlar dire straits and need H1 extension.
Another example: A person going great guns in Cisco gets laid off, he
can't just go work somewhere else because he has no EAD.
Another example: similar dire straits and you see yourself getting
nice job in India with leadership role in a good city, chance to
re-unite with family, and start life afresh.
Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Current Demand Data shows 8,075, but that is all the way to the end of the backlog (August 15th ish).
To July 15 07 it is more like 6k because July is very dense.
In the worst case, PWMB to July 15 07 I think could be as high as 2.5k, although I believe it is probably nearer 2k, so I would say about 8k in total.
Adding on any cases with PD before April 15 07 still to be approved would raise this figure, but 12k seems a bit pessimistic.
If you mean the Backlog & PWMB to the end of the current backlog, then I would put that at about 11.5k.
Agree.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
EAD in hand was big differentiator.
Another point could be (I think this was mentioned earlier too) - even tough people managed to stay on H1 , they had change jobs ..starting PERM process all over
We should be able to get a handle on this drop off rate pretty soon, shouldn't we? We have an estimate of PWMBs for the April to July period calculated from PERM/I-140 figures. With the next demand data / inventory, we should know how many of these PWMBs actually apply for I485s. This will give us an accurate drop off rate for them. I can't think of any reason for the drop off rate for these PWMBs to be any different from the drop off rate of the post July 2007 PD crowd, at least for the August 2007 to July 2008 period. I think after that the recession had taken a hold and the drop off should already be reflected in lower PERM figures, so using the higher drop off rate would be double counting the effect.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
So, I think our eyes should be on the Nov demand data released in early October, although it would be more accurate to look at the December demand data released in early November.
What do you guys think?
Spec, Thanks Actually the idea was to baseline the current point. Theoretically by PD we are at 15th Jul. The demand data also includes Jul and Aug filers who are not current. The PWMB totals have been estimated to be ~ 5k. So if we make 15-AUG as our baseline then the total should be 8K + 5K = 13K. Please advise your thoughts on that. I agree that Jul is rather heavy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Hi qblogfan! I am in process of entering information on G-639 for FOIA purposes. Can you please tell me what all sections you filled and what did you write in section 4. This will be a great help.Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Sorry moderators/ admins about posting a off-topic post.
It will be interesting to see what the drop off rate is. We all have anecdotal evidence that this is at least material. I do agree that the drop off rate post 07/07 will be higher because of no EAD - we will know how high in a couple months. BTW - recession can even push up the PERM numbers since all the people who get laid off and join new jobs need to then go through the PERM process again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
Sounds reasonable, at least we can get some trend. btw the current PWMB estimate already assumes a drop-off, so thing to see would be is it even higher or lower. btw, it would be extremely sad right, first of all you missed the boat, and then had to go back also. heart-breaking.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales
qblogfan will help you out as needed, but I just want to point out that today itself murthy has put this article:Quote:
Originally Posted by SmileBaba
http://murthy.com/news/n_foiare.html
about FOIA
good luck smilebaba, I hope you smile a lot :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
***** Spec i bow to your feet on the effort your doing to immigration community ***** what a fantastic job and you are my hero on the calculations.along the side so may thanks to Q,Teddy (also great guru on calculations),Monica12 ,Venni,Soggadu and nishant2200 (*** these days i am not able to find any page with out your message ) ...keep going guys all the best those got current and good luck to those waiting to file 485
Oops, we cant see any trend immidiately as it will take long time to show up in demand data!Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
+1....cant agree more...Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Completely agree. There have been so many of these bills proposed that have finally gone nowhere. The best thing for us is to keep going on with our lives and not pin up our hopes too much on these bills. While we should keep supporting and trying for these to be passed (very important, reminds me of a quote Q posted a few months back...about how important it is to do so) ...shouldn't rely on them being passed.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
I am not so sure of the I485 figures in USCIS I485 inventory. I am assuming that the inventory is the reason you say July is heavy. The reason is that I485 in July for some reason has nearly 3 times the no of EB2/EB3 I485 than any other month yet the perms (from Spec data)Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Jul-07 - 1,871 ----- 523 ------ 176 ----- 26 ------- 5 --- 2,601
are the same as any other month.
If it was truly that much higher then this should have been reflected in the Perm. I am skeptical about how accurate that data is. I have a feeling in many cases I485 receipt date may have shown as priority date.
Gclongwait,Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait
It is a good point. I agree it does look odd.
I don't know the answer, although in August 2007 many cases would have had a PD virtually identical to the RD, since large numbers of PERM were being approved in a few days.
The BIG difference is the number of EB2-C cases reported in the inventory for July (about 3x more than normal). That higher demand from EB2-C (for what is left of 2007) is reflected in the Demand Data.
On the other hand, the DOS Demand Data figures stack up well against the published USCIS Inventory.
Versus the reported 8,075 of the Demand Data for EB2-IC, the USCIS Inventory reports 8,225 broken down as follows :
PD --------------- No. -- China
April 15-30 ---- 1,078
May ------------ 1,588 ---- 519
June ----------- 1,819 ---- 545
July ----------- 3,319 -- 1,718
August ----------- 421
Total ---------- 8,225
I guess we will find out fairly soon.
sai999, you are humble and very appreciative and honest person, I can see. Let me tell you, a person with these qualities will get the best in life. I got bit emotional reading your post. We have all noted your appreciation.Quote:
Originally Posted by sai999
I sincerely hope you get a chance to file next FY.
I am genuinely surprised and humbled by the appreciative comments about the latest Cut Off Date Predictions. I thank you all.Quote:
Originally Posted by sai999
I know it was a joke, but I think soggadu was closest in saying it was "OK".
Yes, it is probably visually pleasing, but remember that it is only as good as the underlying data. The old maxim of GIGO is so true.
Hopefully, it will be possible for all of us to refine the calculations, if new demand from Forward Cut Off Dates stays around long enough to be captured (in its entirity) in the Demand Data, or preferably, the USCIS Inventory.
That really needs a fast forward movement followed by retrogression for a period to lock the figures. I don't wish the latter part on anyone, just for the sake of collecting figures.
Good luck to everybody.
Thanks Nishant! On all the efforts you have put on this forum till date..what all I can say is ..Nishant baba ki Jai ho! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Spec, you are too kind and humble. We are so very glad that you are part of this wonderful family. I really wish we could meet you and thank you personally.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Maybe one day we can have a " Q get-together " aside from this forum, where we can all meet each other personally :)
Sai, thank you for your very kind words. So nice of you :)
Man.. I'm getting senti... This world is not such a bad place after all :D
Any place will be a better place if the environment is good. We might get that occasional bad apple (remember that guy who spoke about spec) but they will change too when they realize that they are the odd one out. For the past 8 months or so I never missed a single post on this forum and I am proud of each and every member of this forum for maintaining that decorum.
Yeah, when we all get out of this 'mess', I'm all in for a get together. We should actually felicitate or at the least celebrate Q,Spec and Teddy :)
I call it a immigration mess with deep frustration. The number of hoops that I had to jump through after the last VB brought good news for me, was nothing short of a circus feat. Both Literally & physically, I was going from Pillar to post -- Finding my I-20s from more than a decade ago, which btw, those Schools that I attended don't have either, is just one of the Pillars. I have the Degree certificates and grades but not the I-20s :(
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12