Hi Gurus and Experts - my PD is July 31, 2011. When can I expect to get current based on the current trends?
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Hi Gurus and Experts - my PD is July 31, 2011. When can I expect to get current based on the current trends?
openaccount - that sounds reasonable. imho eb2ic could go as high as 30K.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
nik - 5 yrs from pd is rule of thumb. with hr3012 it could be 2.5 yrs.Quote:
Originally Posted by nikjoshi
28,250.. I don't remember the number from previous months demand data for EB2I, but has it gone down or is it still the same?
thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
EB2 ROW---2,775X3=8325(retrogressed for 3 months taking 2775 as base per month for 3 months it would be 8325)
So EB2ROW will be using at least +8k in FY2013.
yank,Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
Thanks for the heads up.
CleanSock,Quote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
It was 22,225 last month for EB2-I.
January 01, 2008 ---- + 850
January 01, 2009 -- + 1,650
January 01, 2010 -- + 2,450
January 01, 2012 -- + 1,750
What I noticed was that the EB2-WW number has increased by 2,000.
agree i am expecting it to be around 28kQuote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
other approach taking weekly basis below is calculation for Jul1-Sept31(2012)---13 weeksQuote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
2775----5 weeks(Jul1-Aug5)
555------1 week
7215----13 weeks(Jul1-Sept31)
So 7215 is minimum number of approvals that could have happened in Q4 without retrogression for EB2ROW. As USCIS is approving some 485 cases within 2-3 months, we can add an extra 1k to the number, so totally EB2ROW needs +8k approvals as starting point in FY2013
Thanks Spec!
It may have been answered before but sorry for asking again. Why did the number increase when EB2I has been Unavailable since many months?No new applications, no porting. Is USCIS showing pre adjudicated numbers?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Percentage of cases pre-adjudicated. Bieber, this is update to your last month's similar calculation (with addition of 2010). Post 28404
EB2-I
2007 ~ 100% (DD-4900, Inv - 4904)
2008 - 85% (DD-12800, Inv-15136)
2009 - 64% (DD-8575, Inv-13429)
2010 - 40% (DD-1975, Inv-4912)
EB2-C
2007 - 77% (DD-800, Inv-1046)
2008 - 86% (DD-2850, Inv-3311)
2009 - 68% (DD-1975, Inv-2913)
2010 - 41% (DD-400, Inv-975)
CleanSock,Quote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
The DOS Demand Data only shows cases where a visa number has been requested from either USCIS or a Consulate.
The continuing increase just reflects USCIS working their way through the backlog and processing them to preadudication. I expect it to continue in the short term.
Does the Inventory include approved cases. Like for eaxmple EB2I-2008 Inv=15136. Does it mean all 15136 are pending or it includes approved cases too.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
So I have a question regardign the 27% per quarter limit. (Spec might be the best one to answer) If DOS applies the limit, then they would likely have to keep a cutoff date for EB2-WW, right?
The limit for this category in a quarter would be 40,040*86%*27%= 9,297. If the estimate of a backlog of 8K is correct, and DOS releases all those visa numbers in October, then by December they won't have any numbers left for Q1.
If the inventory report is accurate then it will include only pending cases. Once the case is approved (visa number is obtained) the case will not be in inventory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by trackright
In theory, as you point out, it could present a problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by justvisiting
In practice, I think it is politically too important not to bring EB2-WW back to Current for it to actually happen. One way or other the situation will be massaged to obtain the desired result IMO.
The first full Demand Data month movement for EB2-WW was only 2k, so the backlog may be lower than 8k.
The 27% limit is an overall limit for EB, so extra visas can be pulled in from other places, at least temporarily. The vast majority of EB5 approvals are from China. They will hit the quarterly 7% limit and spare visas can be reallocated. CO can always use the low EB1 demand stunt to find some more. The fly in that ointment is that CO probably needs to release the full 2.8k allocation to EB2-I in October to have a Cut Off date in August 2007.
I'm not convinced all the backlogged cases will be approved in the first month anyway for purely logistical reasons.
Finally, CO has shown scant regard for the 27% limit in the past - why should FY2013 be any different?
openaccount,Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
I deliberately left a day before replying to see if other people would respond.
I also generally agree with your assessment.
My variation would be that I think EB2 has used 50-52k, about evenly split between EB2-IC and EB2-WW.
To balance that, my figure for EB1 would be slightly lower than yours.
September demand data is out:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
I went back and read the INA, and you are absolutely right. The language is so vague DOS has all sorts of flexibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Well, since DOS doesn't release quarterly data, they can get away with most anything, I suppose.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks GhostWriter, I was going to search that postQuote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
Just as an extention to GhostWriter post
Cases added to Demand data in the last month and (Total pending cases = Inventory - current demand)
EB2I
2007 PD- 850 (4)
2008 PD- 1,650 (2,336)
2009 PD- 2,450 (4,854)
EB2C
2007 PD- 125 (246)
2008 PD- 250 (461)
2009 PD- 500 (938)
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
How many EB2 approvals do you think happened in Q1+Q2.
My estimation of EB2 48k is based on around 38-40k approvals in Q1+Q2 and this (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...e_data_qtr.pdf ), if you see this for Q1+Q2 there were around 75k EB approvals(this does not include CP), In this 75k at least 58-60k could be for EB2/EB1/EB4/EB5. So in Q3+Q4 there were around 40k left to distribute across EB2ROW/EB1/EB4/EB5, As EB2ROW stayed 'C' for Q3, i believe there were around 9k approvals(around 3k per month) EB4/EB5 approvals around 8k which brings EB2ROW/EB4/EB5 approvals around 17k in Q3+Q4. So EB1 approvals in Q3+Q4 might be around 40-17=23K., this could be on higher end but i think EB1 approvals in Q3+Q4 are no less than 20k for this reason i was expecting EB1 approvals >35k.
I believe CO has used around 60k(EB1/2/4/5) in Q1+Q2 itself because of following reasons
--Approvals in Jan/Feb/March 2012
--the way retrogression happened latter.
--CO announcement in March no EB1 spill down
Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
In addition, those EB2-ROW applications that could have been filed in Q4 of 2012 will hit Q1 of 2013 (assuming dates will become current for EB2-ROW)Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
Around 40k.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
September Demand data is out!
veni, i guess you were referring to Q4-2012 & Q1-2013Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
That's right, i corrected it in my post.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
The numbers in Sep demand data are surprising.
It shows only 12K demand for 2008 for EB2 (mostly EB2IC really). I would have thought that would now represent mostly all of 2008 numbers. So either A) USCIS hasnt yet fully processed 2008 OR B) 2008 demand is truly low. I am not sure what exactly is true. Looking at the 2008 PERM data, probably A) is true.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I am not sure how you are arriving at that figure of 12k for 2008.
I see 15,675 cases (21,400 - 5,725) made up of China - 2,850 India - 12,800 & Worldwide - 25
I do agree that USCIS probably still hasn't finished processing all the cases yet.
GhostWriter's earlier post shows that compared to the Inventory figures for May 2012, about 85% of 2008 cases have now appeared in the Demand Data and correspondingly less for 2009 and 2010.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
I missed China Spec. Thanks for pointing out. But that doesn't make a huge dent really.
Including China it shows 16K right? Given that 1/3rd of 2008 are already approved, that makes 2008 true demand at 24K. Then you apply the 85% factor and you get 28K which is quite less compared to average 2.5-3K per month demand for EB2IC.
Makes sense?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
The total PERMs for EB-IC for 2008 were about 28K, with an overall transformation factor of 1 that implies 28K I-485s. The EB2-IC inventory has about 18K. If your assumption about one third approvals is correct then total I485s filed for EB2-IC for 2008 were 27K, very close to the 28K number.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
28k perms => 17k assuming 60% eb2
@2.1 family factor that is 35.7k eb2ic. So 28k is really lower bound whereas 36k would be realistic #
And that's why I think (don't really claim) uscis may have processed less than 85%
Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
any predictions for FY 2013 by the experts based on the latest DD?
You will have your GC.. assuming your application is all good.Quote:
Originally Posted by billu77
EB-IC PERMs - 28K (i had mentioned this as EB2-IC PERM by mistake in the earlier post, will correct that)
Using Spec's assumptions from here
% of EB2 cases - 65%
I-140 approval rate - 80%
Dependent ratio - 2.05
Transformation ratio - .65 * .8 * 2.05 ~ 1.066
EB2-IC I485s expected - 28K * 1.066 ~ 30K
We can also add 1K of porting for 2008 PDs (assuming total porting of 4K, roughly 1K can be attributed to 2008 PD). I don't know if they are counted in EB2 inventory or not. But if they are then we should have seen I-485 filings of 30K + 1K = 31K. Assuming 9K 2008 approvals for EB2-IC, we should expect 22K in inventory vs. a current figure of 18K. 4K discrepancy can be due to many reasons
1. Approvals were more than 9k
2. New PWMBs (so they will file later)
3. DD of up to 13% (~ 4k/30k)
4. People have filed but inventory does not reflect some of the cases (this is i assume what you are implying). This is possible but seems less likely, inventory was released on May 3 and cut-off dates for 2008 were current from Jan-Apr 2012. There could be some cases received at the end of April that might not have been counted but would more likely be 2010 or 2009 PDs. But with USCIS nothing can be ruled out !!
In any case base (realistic) case expectation of 36K for 2008 EB2-IC seems too high, i don't think that was the base case assumption most of the people were making. As far as i remember it used to be 28K (using a ratio of 1) and some even assumed less than that accounting for DD of 10% or more.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Viz, any guess for 30-Apr-2008 EB2I PD? Will it be before Dec 2012 or in summer 2013?Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
- makmohan
I'll defer to Spec and others who run the numbers but my guess is best case scenario is Summer 2013. FY14 is more realistic.Quote:
Originally Posted by makmohan
Sit tight. There are quite some unknowns such as the spillover that we are going to receive from EB4 and EB5. Where we start off next year (Oct 2013) also matters a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by makmohan
Good luck!!
One interesting thing I noticed was that DOS have not yet published the official EB and FB limits for FY2012.
It does seem to be getting later and later, so last year it was published in the August 2011 VB. This what it said:
Until this is published, Section A of the VB says:Quote:
E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)
The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Sections 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.
The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:
Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000
Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.
After it is published, it says:Quote:
The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000.
The September VB is the last chance to officially publish this information.Quote:
The fiscal year 2011 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 140,000.
FB received 221,042 visas last year, so there is an outside possibility of an extra 4,958 visas for EB.
Spec thanks. I had pretty much forgotten about this nuance.
Can you please throw some light on this verbeage in plain english.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Sure.
Both only relate to the (rather complicated) calculation of FB numbers. I won't bore everyone by quoting them, but you can find them at INA 201(c) if anyone cares to look.
Essentially, you can ignore them, since the number relating to parole is very small and the number of Immediate Relatives of US Citizens is very large.
A simple version would be 480k minus IR of USC plus any spare EB visas. That calculation almost always results in a figure lower than the minimum number for FB of 226,000.
The number of IR approvals in FY2011 (according to DHS figures) was 453,158 and in FY2010 it was 476,414 , so you can see that the default figure of 226k always comes into play.