EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Qblogfan :Thank you. Do you know how many cases from Aug 2007-Aug 2008? I ask coz my PD is Aug 2008.

What was the denial rate we were looking at for PERM when calculating the data?
I was just running through the MDB for 2011 from FLD DataCenter and found that 9000 were in denied state of the total 60K. thats around 15%.

Thanks for laying it out, appreciate your efforts and time well spent on this.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

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I don't know the exact number and I don't want to mislead you.

My personal opinion is around 40k. Again, I don't have accurate information, just for your reference.

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Qblogfan :Thank you. Do you know how many cases from Aug 2007-Aug 2008? I ask coz my PD is Aug 2008.

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Your charts are so impressive! I admire your math ability and analysis!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

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Too good as always!

Very impressive..

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

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When is the report of how much visa numbers were used for what countries per each EB/FB category in FY2011 expected?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

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Excellent work Spec!!

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Originally Posted by visagcinfo

When is the report of how much visa numbers were used for what countries per each EB/FB category in FY2011 expected?

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visagcinfo,

If memory serves me correctly, it is published in January.

Edit:- Just checked and last year's report came out on January 21, 2011.

Spec

you tables are fantastic and easy to follow. The color coding very easily leads people to understand the best case worst case and average case scenario. Props to you!!

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

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Awesome Spec ... very good insight.... bravo..

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

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When do you guys think EB2 India Dec 2008 PD will be current?. Thanks

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Originally Posted by nostwal

When do you guys think EB2 India Dec 2008 PD will be current?. Thanks

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Looks like 2013.

Thanks SSVP22. Man this is crazy how much time we got to wait for the Green Card. Hope some reform gets passed in near future.

Thanks Spec.
I guess that is when we know for sure/see it in writing if all the visa numbers were used or any wasted.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

visagcinfo,

If memory serves me correctly, it is published in January.

Edit:- Just checked and last year's report came out on January 21, 2011.

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I am going to be current October but since the spill over is not going start till may, is there a chance of me getting GC before that?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

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Thanks Spec, very helpful :)

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Originally Posted by Spectator

For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.

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mehhh... they are ok... not bad... you can do better spec...

(wink)i am trying to down play so that spec will come up with same excellent performance every time, this is how our client treats my offshore team...ssshhhh...keep it a secret...(wink)(wink)

hmm..hmm... yes, please keep them coming...we will see...

Soggadu, you are funny as hell :) Taking the pangaa with the Great the Spec ( sorry, couldn't resist...I'm a big fan of ZNMD)

Rahil, I'm in the same boat as you. If you go back a few pages, there's a post by Teddy which explains there might be 250 or 750 visas available in Oct ( depending on if they go by monthly quota or Quarterly quota for India). So, a few lucky ones will get approvals in Oct and Nov ( if dates don't retrogress in Nov).
Now, the million dollar question is if we will see any spillover and how early that will happen (q1 /q2 or we have to wait till q3/q4)?

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Soggadu, you are funny as hell :)
Rahil, I'm in the same boat as you. If you back a few pages, there's a post by Teddy which explains there might be 250 or 750 visas availabel in Oct ( depending on if they go by monthly quota or Quarterly quota for India). So, a few lucky ones will get approvals.
Now, the million dollar question is if we will see any spillover and how early that will happen?

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For me at least I will be able to file 485 for my wife

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Originally Posted by rahil1

For me at least I will be able to file 485 for my wife

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Actually, we really don't know what is going to happen. In the next few VB, they might move 2-3 months each and then retrogress OR make a big movement in Nov and then retrogress OR stop in Nov, then move in Dec, stop in Jan, move in Feb Or they might stop and retrogress in Nov (not likely in my opinion) ....So, lots of possibilities here. Depending on movement of dates, people will get approvals.
They surprised us in Oct..so they might surprise us again.

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Actually, we really don't know what is going to happen. In the next few VB, they might move 2-3 months each and then retrogress OR make a big movement in Nov and then retrogress OR stop in Nov, then move in Dec, stop in Jan, move in Feb Or they might stop and retrogress in Nov (not likely in my opinion) ....So, lots of possibilities here. Depending on movement of dates, people will get approvals.
They surprised us in Oct..so they might surprise us again.

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Yes, no one can really say with surety what they want to do. Someone may even argue that they did this 3 month move on already approached territory and put that para in the VB, just as a forewarning to people, and more importantly the lawyers, to get ready to file. One can already see Ron Gotcher, Murthy, lawyers take the bait and be alert to this possibility.

The three most concrete pieces of proof, in order of priority, we have are:
1. Similar precedent in F2 family based in earlier FY.
2. NVC fee bills generally laying out the possibility of date being current in a 6-9 month span from the date of fee bill.
3. Language in the October VB indicating the intent and interest in generating demand. Also to note is he used the word "generating demand", not "gauging demand". Shows stronger intent/interest.

All 3 above point to good things to come, but one can never be sure. But one can be "ready".

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Yes, no one can really say with surety what they want to do. Someone may even argue that they did this 3 month move on already approached territory and put that para in the VB, just as a forewarning to people, and more importantly the lawyers, to get ready to file. One can already see Ron Gotcher, Murthy, lawyers take the bait and be alert to this possibility.

The three most concrete pieces of proof, in order of priority, we have are:
1. Similar precedent in F2 family based in earlier FY.
2. NVC fee bills generally laying out the possibility of date being current in a 6-9 month span from the date of fee bill.
3. Language in the October VB indicating the intent and interest in generating demand. Also to note is he used the word "generating demand", not "gauging demand". Shows stronger intent/interest.

All 3 above point to good things to come, but one can never be sure. But one can be "ready".

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How does the idea of people with PD in Oct 2007 getting their medical done in the next month sound(irrespective of the movement in next month)? Should one hold on to it, or get done with it and be prepared?

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Yes, no one can really say with surety what they want to do. Someone may even argue that they did this 3 month move on already approached territory and put that para in the VB, just as a forewarning to people, and more importantly the lawyers, to get ready to file. One can already see Ron Gotcher, Murthy, lawyers take the bait and be alert to this possibility.

The three most concrete pieces of proof, in order of priority, we have are:
1. Similar precedent in F2 family based in earlier FY.
2. NVC fee bills generally laying out the possibility of date being current in a 6-9 month span from the date of fee bill.
3. Language in the October VB indicating the intent and interest in generating demand. Also to note is he used the word "generating demand", not "gauging demand". Shows stronger intent/interest.

All 3 above point to good things to come, but one can never be sure. But one can be "ready".

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Nishant, I have been going over this statement that Murthy put on their forum again and again:

"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

For the life of me I cannot understand what they are implying. By new filings, do they mean PWMB who will be current in Oct or people who filed in April-Sep,2011 or both. From this statement, it means that the date movement will depend on the visa supply, which we know is not much. What's your take on this statement?

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Originally Posted by ssvp22

How does the idea of people with PD in Oct 2007 getting their medical done in the next month sound(irrespective of the movement in next month)? Should one hold on to it, or get done with it and be prepared?

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ssvp, what I would do is make an appointment for the medicals and cancel it later if dates dont get current. There is no charge if you cancel the appointment but you dont want to miss an appointment also if dates become current. So, nevertheless make the appointment.

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Nishant, I have been going over this statement that Murthy put on their forum again and again:

"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

For the life of me I cannot understand what they are implying. By new filings, do they mean PWMB who will be current in Oct or people who filed in April-Sep,2011 or both. What's your take on this statement?

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agree, I think they may not approve all the cases that are current.

It's possible that they will approve only several hunderds next month.

I don't think he will approve 6000 next month.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Monica

That statement that you quote and are trying to understand is actually quite a stupid statement (no offense to you!). The reason I say this is because - there will be 8K of pre-approved backlog waiting for a visa number. So why in the world would any new PWMB be processed prior to those preadjudicated cases? CO on the other hand has expressly shown interest in moving dates in order to generate demand.

The fallacy behind CO's statement is that the movement in October hardly will generate any NEW demand. So he is almost sure to make another movement in November if he is to stay true to his words.

Coming back to Rahil's question - given that there is very significant number of cases (8K+) prior to 1 Oct 2007, I wouldn't hope on getting a GC just because my case is currrent. There will of course be a couple exceptions. But the chances of anybody with Oct 2007 PD getting a GC in next 3 months are next to nil.

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Q, yes,I agree... that's what I thought... the statement just doesnt make sense, considering it was made clear in Oct vb that the intention is to generate new demand. Thanks for clarifying.

Whoever made that statement (murthy?) basically recycled the oft repeated statement from DoS website rather than paying attention to the more relevant CO
statement in latest VB.

Lets cross fingers for people post Jul 2007.

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Q, yes,I agree... that's what I thought... the statement just doesnt make sense, considering it was made clear in Oct vb that the intention is to generate new demand. Thanks for clarifying.

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Looks like it all boils down to the "Luck factor" for people who are current in October. Good Karma = GC.

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Originally Posted by Dojoapril

Looks like it all boils down to the "Luck factor" for people who are current in October. Good Karma = GC.

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Perhaps you should spell it Good Carma=GC.

First post here. I have been following this great forum for a few months now, my PD is far away (EB2-I, end of 2009) so was watching from the pavilion. Thanks to Q and all other gurus here for the great analysis. I signed up today to view Spec's latest miracle. Also have a few questions
- I was going through the data section and noticed the very small number of Perms for China vs India after 2008. So is there a chance that EB2-C will get current sooner and then only EB2-I will be the only category to use spillover.
- Are SOFAD numbers for last 3-4 years listed somewhere (couldn't find in the data section, please point me to the link, i might have overlooked it).

Hello Guys,

I've generally been a silent observer of this forum. Here is something i heard from my friend who upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and became current last week. His EB3 priority date was May 2006.

It seems his attorney got an email from USCIS as soon as his EB2 140 got approved. The email said that this year's visa numbers got over and that he may be approved only next month (i.e October) because that is when next year's quota kicks in.

So it looks like officially the current year's visa numbers are finally over.

Hope this info helps our Gurus.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I saw this link on Trackitt to the actual communication by the Visa Office to USCIS http://shusterman.com/pdf/ebnumbersgone911.pdf


It is always good to see the actual communication, rather than an interpretation of it by a third party.

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Originally Posted by venkat

Hello Guys,

I've generally been a silent observer of this forum. Here is something i heard from my friend who upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and became current last week. His EB3 priority date was May 2006.

It seems his attorney got an email from USCIS as soon as his EB2 140 got approved. The email said that this year's visa numbers got over and that he may be approved only next month (i.e October) because that is when next year's quota kicks in.

So it looks like officially the current year's visa numbers are finally over.

Hope this info helps our Gurus.

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venkat,
Welcome, please see Spec's post above with link to the DOS document referring FY2011 quota exhaust.

What do you think about PD of Jan8 2008 ? Should I change job right now or wait since I am so close ?

I am getting new offer and new company will file for GC in EB2 after 1 year. They said they are ok and they do in EB2. salary is 20% more than what I make. Do you think I will get a chance to file for I 485 this year can switch after 6 months ?

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Originally Posted by veni001

venkat,
Welcome, please see Spec's post above with link to the DOS document referring FY2011 quota exhaust.

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If they ran out of visas in a middle of Sep month does that mean EB1 and EB2 row's demand from Sep will force DOS to retro date for EB2 IC ?

What are chances of PD with Jan 2008 to file I 485 before Dec ?

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Originally Posted by ssvp22

How does the idea of people with PD in Oct 2007 getting their medical done in the next month sound(irrespective of the movement in next month)? Should one hold on to it, or get done with it and be prepared?

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I am posting only w.r.t. getting the medical done before hand and my take is that it is a waste of money and time. The whole medical process is a straight forward process and there are plenty of registered medical practitioners out there in each city so if and when the time comes when your PD is current, you shoudl be able to get your medical done then. No use doing the medical before hand.
OIn the other hand pre preperation of the 485 filing document is a better time investing and makes sense cause i am sure at teh last minute thgere will be some missing document for which you need to rush around.

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

I am posting only w.r.t. getting the medical done before hand and my take is that it is a waste of money and time. The whole medical process is a straight forward process and there are plenty of registered medical practitioners out there in each city so if and when the time comes when your PD is current, you shoudl be able to get your medical done then. No use doing the medical before hand.
OIn the other hand pre preperation of the 485 filing document is a better time investing and makes sense cause i am sure at teh last minute thgere will be some missing document for which you need to rush around.

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I was thinking to do medical ahead of time but I don't think it will make a huge difference if I do now or later when date is current. So many people got medical done when July 2007 gate was open. We don't have any chance for gate opening again and we get close to 3 week before date becoming current. so that should be fine.

gc_usa, assuming that your company is able to retain your PD; your time to GC won't be affected too much .... may be GC through new company will be delayed by 6-12 months max (assuming they are efficient).

When people generally don't take the route of job switch, they should do it out of the risk of new application, rather than the delay in time-to-get-GC. For Jan 2008, I think in 2012 you have a good chance of at least filing 485. 50% of actually getting the GC in hand.

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

What do you think about PD of Jan8 2008 ? Should I change job right now or wait since I am so close ?

I am getting new offer and new company will file for GC in EB2 after 1 year. They said they are ok and they do in EB2. salary is 20% more than what I make. Do you think I will get a chance to file for I 485 this year can switch after 6 months ?

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I would agree PlainSpeak. You are right here.

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Originally Posted by PlainSpeak

I am posting only w.r.t. getting the medical done before hand and my take is that it is a waste of money and time. The whole medical process is a straight forward process and there are plenty of registered medical practitioners out there in each city so if and when the time comes when your PD is current, you shoudl be able to get your medical done then. No use doing the medical before hand.
OIn the other hand pre preperation of the 485 filing document is a better time investing and makes sense cause i am sure at teh last minute thgere will be some missing document for which you need to rush around.

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

If they ran out of visas in a middle of Sep month does that mean EB1 and EB2 row's demand from Sep will force DOS to retro date for EB2 IC ?

What are chances of PD with Jan 2008 to file I 485 before Dec ?

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EB2IC dates haven't moved ahead enough to warrant a retro yet. For the secondquestion please see the answer to Gc_USA.