hiTK,
Can you give us a number where we will be on Sep 2012, 2013 and 2014 assuming SOFAD levels are same and Infosys, CTS doesn' file too many EB1-C's for consultants and analysts.
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hiTK,
Can you give us a number where we will be on Sep 2012, 2013 and 2014 assuming SOFAD levels are same and Infosys, CTS doesn' file too many EB1-C's for consultants and analysts.
soggadu - yes. Always a good idea to keep on H1.
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Teddy, ideally the figures for Aug and Sep should indicate backlog reduction, and hence the one to one mapping between that and the sudden surprise increased demand for EB1/EB2ROW for Aug and Sep by USCIS to DOS. So the statement that "the backlog is atleast higher by 10K when compared to corresponding time periods last year." might have the "10k" reduced hopefully when we look at the September figure finally for corresponding September of last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
In light of the movement of the COD to July in the last bulletin how will USCIS know the inventory (assuming they use the documentarily qualified statistics to calculate invenotry) they have built up in 1 month (before the next VB).
I am guessing that they have setup a mechanism with USCIS, where in USCIS will report to them number of new incoming I-485 aplications for EB2 I/C. The I-485 form has on the first page a box for USCIS use only, which has a box for filling out applicable law (family, asylum, employment etc) , Preference (E1, E2, E3, E4, E5 etc) and country chargeable, and so on kind of identifying information as to what bucket it goes into. So the upfront work for USCIS might be to at least have this box area filled out for incoming I-485 applications in October, and report that to DOS. Maybe they can make it part of their application receipting process to streamline that, maybe they already do.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
Now people can only file when October begins and can continue to do so until October 31st (and later if the dates remain current), and they have to release next VB on October 10th around I am guessing, so I think for the next VB at least, they wouldn't wait for the final figures for new I-485, but for the VB after that, they would have some knowledge, which in this case would be only PWMB, and would be a false positive that only few I-485s were obtained, and who knows, that may encourage them to move more in the third bulletin. Just thinking here aloud.
Going by this month and above reasoning, Q's theory earlier(pipeline buildup), i think we should see movement for next 2 months. Can anyone lookup the numbers as to what would be exact number of visa numbers needed for another 4 months of movement, which is what can potentially happen comparing to FB scenario of last year.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I think the idea is reverse, if we do n number of months of movement, how much visa numbers would we have to provide, that's what DOS is trying to gauge. The n number of months of movement, what they are basing on currently, we don't know.Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
I do not want to step onto Spec's toes, with all credit to him (and Veni, and all other number crunching gurus), with calculations he is working on and will provide to us all sometime now, that number is around 9,600 for 4 months onwards from 15th July 2007.
Teddy, Nishanth
Nothing changed siginificantly in 140 data from June to July, pending number remained same with new receipts almost same as previous month.
Perm numbers were heavy in May and June, so the EB2 ROW must have used more 485 numbers than EB1 in August and September
Nishant I have a slightly different take on this. At the time of the Aug VB this revelation about sudden demand came up, this must be a function of high approval rates in the previous months, now there is a time lag in filing 485. If we look at the trend May and Jun saw 9-9.5K approvals so the 485's corresponding to these would have hit in Aug assuming the 485 filing takes 2 months on an average, unlike us (Retrogressed Folks), people who are current are in no apparent rush to file. Now the backlog is a function of completions and new demand coming up as well as completions. It seems that the completions have declined and so has the new demand but the reduction is only 5K from the peak and we are still higher by 10K from the normal levels of last year. It could be generalized that the 5K reduction caused a complete loss of SOFAD for Aug & Sep. So another 10K reduction in backlog when it hits the 485 queue will have a significant impact. Now if the 10K reduction in backlog comes by gradually or in a span of say 2 months and it is matched by a higher number of completions it’s ok, if the completions are high and the backlog still stays where it is that means the new demand is heavy. I have a feeling that since the 485 workload was lower this year in Aug and Sep they will try to reduce the 140 backlog at a faster pace and we will see the backlog down and completions higher. Also the backlog may be richer for EB1 thanks to the Kazarian memo, because its only the rate of approval that slowed down there is no evidence to suggest that the demand itself came down. If we assume that even 4K out of the 10K is EB1 + EB2 ROW then reducing that this year could mean ~ 10K less SOFAD which could be very significant. Backlog reduction will happen at some point in time, the agencies will go for it because they would want to show better performance statistics, it definitely hurts SOFAD very badly. Lets hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Normally we should work 1 year at a time. At high level if we assume 25K SOFAD coming our way things would look as follows Ball Park.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Sep 2012 - Oct - Nov 2007
Sep 2013 - Oct - Nov 2008
Sep 2014 - Mid 2010
The EB2 Trend is 4-5 years. After late 2008 the demand thins out because that was peak of recession time.
did you mean Mid 2009 or 2010 in Sep 2014?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
My apologies for the mistyping its Mid 2010 for Sep 2014. I just edited the posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by smuggymba
Teddy (with due respect)
Are you implying that the demand is much greater for late 2007-2008 than 2006 or 2005?
We may not know exactly the prospective numbers waiting to file I 485.
What we do know for a fact is that historically, the PD has moved 1.5 years every FY.
Honestly, did you expect the kind of movement this past year?
Yes I do believe that the demand is slightly heavier than 2006, its double of 2005 (That year was a breeze). The movement in terms of years is just a statistic. For example we can guesstimate that SOFAD was ~ 30K but movement was 11 months, however he previous year the SOFAD was 26.5K but movement was 16 months. So the movement in terms of months does not reflect the correct picture. At the beginning of 2011 based on the Trackitt trend I had predicted the Mar - Apr range but yes the overall movement was beyond expectations. Your post is very polite we are having a good discussion, I will be happy to answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by RMS_V13
Teddy, can you elaborate a bit on the below:
Sep 2012 - Oct - Nov 2007 - Does this mean that there is a chance for people with PD between Oct - Nov 2007 will get the GC by Sep 2012 or will they get a chance to only file for 485?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I believe anyone within 2007 has a good chance of filing 485. GC issuance range could be around Oct - 2007. Its early days lets see the approval trend in Q1 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by sandeep11
Where is my 2009? :)Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Things will move really fast once we cross Sep 2008, after that it may take a year to reach mid 2010 itself so 2009 is not on the map :). Just like cyclones and hurricanes change their path this map will change its going to be a long ride.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
T,
I understand that all these calculations post Aug 07 are based on the PERM and I140 data. But during the 2008/2009 period, a lot of body-shoppers came under the radar and most of them had to forcefully terminate the employees who are on bench. Also there were a lot of layoffs and whatever jobs up for grab did not want to hire H1Bs. Add to that the Banking & Auto sectors that got federal aid with a clause that they cannot hire H1Bs..... etc. As a result, there could be a few - if not significant number of PERM & I140s that were deserted.
Is there anyway to know how much of all this impacts these calculations?
You are right; this point has come up before as well. Right now atleast in the Oct bulletin we see that they are taking up new demand gradually. So hopefully the process itself will take care of these scenarios. Really no one knows how many people had to go back, the impact of the recession and memo's has been severe but our sample set is restricted to those who had filed a perm and 140. Now if the 140 is approved and even if the person went back they can come back and reclaim the PD. So lets go on this journey a year at a time, making projections that far with too many unknowns will not be accurate / realistic. The biggest unknown of all is that will the SOFAD momentum continue because if it diminishes the whole thing breaks down. Already we have seen that significant efforts are going on to pump up Eb5.Quote:
Originally Posted by ragx08
Monica,Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
I have posted this immigration info news letter few pages back.
Thanks Teddy.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
A few years ago, the CIS Ombudsman in its annual report scolded USCIS for not tracking and processing Family-based applications which then resulted in visa-wastage as DOS did not move the dates far enough ahead.
Knowing this history, I would be surprised if DOS doesn't get aggressive in moving dates for EB2IC and then retrogressing if they have to. They have done so with family based F2 categories.
Now the question is how aggressive will they get. To be honest, I would rather have them move it steadily till they have 2 yrs worth of applications (roughly 60K - even then I won't be current) and then retrogress or make it 'U' for unavailable. And keep repeating every year so they always have 60K in the bank.
I appreciate USCIS's improved efficiency in processing I-485, but still it has no skills when it comes to managing/forcasting demand based on I-140 approvals - which is pathetic by the way.
I know this is wishful thinking and DOS and USCIS will still continue to amaze us with their erratic behavior but I just had to vent.
Friends, if you would like to - please vote to select a good charity. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ations-We-Made
We will donate from this site's revenue to the charity majority of YOU vote for.
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kd2008, no harm in venting. Every now and then, I too see my cloud floating by. Qblogfan, I am trying to reduce weight, so that the cloud occupies my weight, you go ahead too :)
On a serious note, 60k sounds too good to be true for them to keep buffer. But hey, they can do anything, as can be witnessed from their date moving and openly claiming this is to gauge demand.
A difference vs the F2 categories pointed out for last FY might be that they already have many pre-adjudicated apps in until 15th August 2007 PDs, and since these dates would be current during the move forward, these folks would be contacting USCIS for GC, but they don't have number to provide. I really feel it's very tricky situation, and DOS would be best advised to quickly do big moves (BBTM) and retrogress back, rather than waiting patiently doing 2-3 months a time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I think Mr.CO will use the same method he used on F2 last year.
I think he will keep moving the dates forward in Q1 and then retrogress in January.
The only question is how much demand he wants and how big steps he will move the future PDs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
I agree with you Nishant, if DOS keeps on moving dates till January, infopasses with be flooded with requests when actually they cannot give visas.
Still i Don't understand one logic, if they need atleast 6-9 months for processing an 485 application why they dont take applications in the amount of 30k to 4k?. People have chance to filing EAD few months a head and uscis will not be pressurized. Apart from it they can monitor number of EB1 applications.
If they go by quarter wise, suppose if there is huge volume of EB1 application in last quarter, then probably all them will not be able to get their GC's or else some visas might even get wasted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
For those that have not already noticed, I have now posted some revised figures here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Oh Great ! Thanks Spec :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
after going through it.. All I can say is " BRAVO!" *clap clap*
If DOS does qtr spill over then they will have 5.6k ( regular IC quota ) + 2-3k spill over from Eb1 and 1.5k from EB5 , which should be enough to move date where ever they want in 2008. I personally believe that DOS will not go very tight in creating buffer. They will make at least 1.25 to 1.5 times than sofad for this year. because if they don't move date enough then uscis may waste visas, if they go too much further in 2008 then uscis may random approves cases and next year it will be hard to manage date for DOS.
If SOFAD was 25k this year then DOS will at least create 30k-40k buffer. which should be mid 2008 to fall 2008. There is no evidence for NVC receipt beyond July - Sep 2008.
also 6 months ago they sent notices up to Nov 2007 so in coming bulletin date will go from Nov 2007 - March 2008.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_usa
Is this based on facts or just a gut feeling? I would love for this scenario to play out.
Great projection. Thanks for your effort, With Oct 2007 PD, I hope/wish I'll fall under FY 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Visas will not be wasted... this is the second year in a row that DOS has indicated that that all visas were exhausted by mid septemeber....:DQuote:
Originally Posted by gc_usa
agree, if this year's SOFAD is 25k, then they have to get 30k-35k at least because not all of the submitted cases can be approved before next summer. Some of the submitted cases can be audited or RFEed or denied. I think they have to get 30k at least, in order to stay on the safe side.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_usa
That is because they have the enough pre approved cases before "SO" starts;)Quote:
Originally Posted by MeraNoAayega
The reason why they didn't waste any visa is because of the 98k EB2 C&I inventory built in 2007.
From 2007 summer to this summer, I think more than 90k EB2 C&I have been approved and 8k are pending.
Year 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007
C Approved 8000 6,505 3,045 6,964 6,797
I Approved 18000 19,961 10,106 14,818 6,203
2011 data was estimated.
If they don't have a huge inventory, it will be difficult to control the flow.
In 2007 they built this massive 98k inventory, this year they need to build at least 30k-40k inventory.
According to an analysis on MITBBS, currently there are 12k EB-2C and 81k EB-2I waiting for 485 submission. The total potential is 93k.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MeraNoAayega
Which isQuote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Current Pending - 8K
PWMB - 5K (till Aug07)
Aug07-dec07 - 9.5K (Specs table)
----------------------------
23K + 4K Porting = 27K till Dec07
So hardly March 1st 08 it will be
qblogfan : So disappointed to read this :(
Potentially 93 K from Aug 2007 to when?
From Aug 2007 to Q3 of 2011. One guy analyzed the number of EB2 applicants who haven't submitted 485 yet.
From FY 2007 to FY 2011, totally around 90k cases (most of cases are from FY 2004-FY 2007) have been approved and 8k are pending.
The potential demand of 93k need four fiscal years to approve if the approval rate is constant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RMS_V13