EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2014

Friends,

I have updated the header http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013

Unfortunately I too do not have any better news. Every single category has strong ongoing demand and significant backlog which together pretty much leaves EB2IC high and dry this year. The only thing that will work in EB2IC favor is the 12K FB visas (5K alloted to EB3 and 1K to EB5).

I am now reasonably comfortable with this forecast. IMHO the forecast error could be 2-3 months max.

Hello every one.

I have been an avid reader and follower of this Forum from long time. Just wanted to share my thoughts.
This is the only forum (to my knowledge) which discusses and analyzes the immigration numbers with a blend of calculations and sensible predictions.
I would like to express my heart full Thanks and Admiration towards Q, Spec and all the others who are contributing so VALUABLE insights.

Thank you for letting me to be a part of this group.

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Originally Posted by dreamer

Spectator.

I completely agree with you. Its hard to accurately predict and read whats on CO's mind. I was just trying to explain by taking spillover numbers as constant, which itself is highly variable number.

Last but not least, I really admire your contribution to the immigration community and like you number crunching/analysis.

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I will frame it otherway. The number balance may not match always.

We see that there is atleast some percent unresolved cases either due to RFE (Either EVL or AC21) or some other checks being re-initiated.

This percent number could be very much a gray area, but CO might have some idea of this or may take guess.

For eg. if we take this at 20%, then the PD progress date would dart head.

More delay in applying the spill over, the more progression of PD would be.

For eg. If in strict sense, spill over is applied in last quarter, the PD would have to be randonly extended ahead but with a plan to pull back or control in next 3 months.

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Originally Posted by sportsfan33

I don't know if it's a factor, but if it is, it will be a massive boon to EB2-I. True, the USCIS will issue less GCs, but those will be to EB1, EB2-ROW, EB4 and EB5 - i.e. categories those are current and those require processing right now. EB2-I cases have been processed and 42K pre-adjudicated cases are ready to be given green cards. If other categories do not get theirs, EB2-I will gladly absorb whatever it can get. Remember - a slow processing by the USCIS is what the EB2-I needs to waltz ahead.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Updated on February 17, 2013

The FY2012 DOS Visa statistics provided some very nice surprises.

FB underused their allocation and may provide as many as 13.2k extra visas to EB2.

EB4 did not use their full allocation again and I now feel confident to allow some spillover from EB4.

EB1 had high usage in FY2012, but this may be a rebound effect from Kazarian in FY2011. Nonetheless, for prediction purposes I am going to use a lower figure for FY2013.

EB2-ROW and EB2-Philippines were on target to use or exceed their allocation, while EB2-Mexico would still have provided spare numbers had retrogression not been imposed.

Currently, I am using the following spillover numbers for FY2013 based on 158.5k being available to EB:

EB1 ----– 10.3
EB2-M –--- 1.8
EB2-P –-- (0.5)
EB2-ROW – (0.4)
EB3 ------ 0.0
EB4 ------ 3.3
EB5 ------ 1.3
Total --- 15.8 k spillover.

At that level EB2-China should not use any spillover and use only their 3.2k initial allocation.

EB2-India would have around 19-20k visas available including the 3.2k initial allocation.

That might be sufficient to clear all cases to about July 2008.

The above might be conservative. There are still big doubts about the performance of EB1 and EB2-ROW/P.

It is quite possible that the numbers available will be somewhat better than that.

Also, as mentioned above, it assumes that all cases will be cleared. We know that is never the case, so Cut Off Dates will probably move to nearer the end of 2008.

Movement into 2009 seems relatively less likely, but it is not impossible.

]

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Hi Spec,
If we assume dates will start moving in July 2013. By that time EB2-I may have already used 2372 normal allocated visas out of 3163. So now at this point of time total number of available visas are 15 K + 1K = 16 K available.
As of Feb 2013 demand data is showing 7300 pending till Jan 1 2008.

To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 13636 (needs 12.5K spillover)

To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 16488 (needs 15.5K spillover)

To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 20123 (needs 19.0 K spillover)

extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months ----demand data number is increasing by around 200-300 every month.

Let me know what you think.

One quick question probably a very stupid question (as you can see this is my post here...)

From the above post and in the other places before the porting #s for this year are being considered around 3k-5k - is it purely prediction or has some calculation behind (if so may I know how we ended up with this #? - from the recent Perm/I-140 approvals may be?). Also this 3k-5k is only the primary or include the dependants too?

BTW, Hats off to all the gurus, pandits, sophomores and others here - great job!

From Trackitt:

It is almost clear 13K of the FB spillover will come to EB2. The question is will EB2 ROW need some from FB to remain current. Not sure so far.
For the sake of discussion let us assume, EB2 WW requires additional 5000 visas. That will leave 8000 visas for EB2I. There will be additional spill over from EB1 for sure, let us say 3000 visas. So the minimum spillover is 11000.
11K + 2.8 K normal quota. it is roughly 14K.

The wild card is EB3 I to EB2 I portings.There are 7300 , EB2 I applications until end of 2007. Let us say another 5000 portings between now and end of fiscal. So the total demand is 7300 + 5000 = 12300 to cover the until 2007. That leaves atleast 3000 visas into 2008. Roughly February of 2008. This is the most pessimistic approach according to me.

Pessimistic Approach: February 2008.
Realistic Approach : June 2008. ( EB2 WW needs only 1K spill over from FB, and EB1 yeilds roughly 4k, EB4 and EB5 yields 2K)
Optimistic Approach : September 2008. ( For the controller to make sure visas are not wasted)

Either way it is for sure, it will reach close to mid of 2008. :):)

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Hi Spec,
If we assume dates will start moving in July 2013. By that time EB2-I may have already used 2372 normal allocated visas out of 3163. So now at this point of time total number of available visas are 15 K + 1K = 16 K available.
As of Feb 2013 demand data is showing 7300 pending till Jan 1 2008.

To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 13636 (needs 12.5K spillover)

To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 16488 (needs 15.5K spillover)

To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 20123 (needs 19.0 K spillover)

extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months ----demand data number is increasing by around 200-300 every month.

Let me know what you think.

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erikbond101,

It is easier just to add the total amount of porting cases you estimate for the year to the base number to reach a particular Cut Off Date.

Currently, your calculation does not take account of the cases already approved in Oct-Jan. That is probably about a further 1k.

Until the PD becomes Current, a porting case will not show in the Demand Data for EB2, since USCIS cannot request a visa under EB2 until then. So far, that is all cases with a PD of Sept 2004 or later that became ready to adjudicate since June 2012. By July 2013, there will be over a year's worth to add as the Cut off Date moves forward (assuming it stays relatively unchanged until then).

From the beginning of February 2013 (the date the DD was published) there are 8 months remaining in the FY, not the 5 you are allowing. Your estimate of further porting cases looks on the low side, since it would total only (the missing 1k) plus 1.25k. So far this year, PD2003 and 3/4 of PD2004 alone seem to have been able to sustain 250 / month.

This reply is in no way meant to sound critical - it's just intended to bring to your attention some points you may wish to consider. You certainly don't need to agree. Good luck with your number crunching.

What does pre-adjudication really mean.

I called USCIS to find about my RFE on 485, and they said my case is pre-adjudicated. DOes it mean RFE is cleared.

Thanks,

My impression is that USCIS runs entirely on the fees that it collects. There is no additional funding from the federal govt - so sequestration should have no effect on USCIS' working.

PS> Hello everyone. Its been some time since I posted anything.

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Originally Posted by druvraj

With sequestration i.e reduction in USCIS budget and potential reduction in personnel coming up do we have to adjust the prediction? Do we have to account for less number of GCs being issued? How about the loss of 3-5K ? I know this variable is unknown and is completely a what if scenario but still I thought of floating the idea around.

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pre-adjudication means that your case is ready to receive a visa number, when available - documentarily qualified is the official term I think. I would guess that that means that your RFE is cleared.

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Originally Posted by dec2007

What does pre-adjudication really mean.

I called USCIS to find about my RFE on 485, and they said my case is pre-adjudicated. DOes it mean RFE is cleared.

Thanks,

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

erikbond101,

It is easier just to add the total amount of porting cases you estimate for the year to the base number to reach a particular Cut Off Date.

Currently, your calculation does not take account of the cases already approved in Oct-Jan. That is probably about a further 1k.

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Sure Thanks. I have included Oct-Jan 2013 in regular quota for 9 months till July. (263*9 = 2372). So left out for this year is around 1K from regular quota. (15K spillover + 1K = 16 K)

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Until the PD becomes Current, a porting case will not show in the Demand Data for EB2, since USCIS cannot request a visa under EB2 until then. So far, that is all cases with a PD of Sept 2004 or later that became ready to adjudicate since June 2012. By July 2013, there will be over a year's worth to add as the Cut off Date moves forward (assuming it stays relatively unchanged until then).

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Then how come demand data number is increasing from past 4 months???

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From the beginning of February 2013 (the date the DD was published) there are 8 months remaining in the FY, not the 5 you are allowing.

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I did consider it see above.

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Your estimate of further porting cases looks on the low side, since it would total only (the missing 1k) plus 1.25k. So far this year, PD2003 and 3/4 of PD2004 alone seem to have been able to sustain 250 / month.

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Now this is a worrying aspect. If 250 numbers are getting consumed only in 2003 and 2004, (250*9 = 2250 till July considered above) then what will happen if we consider rest of 2004 and 2005 2006 2007, 2008. (assume 400*9 = 3600 extra numbers needed to adjudicated in July 2013). So here I was wrong it should be 3600 instead of 1250 in July 2013.

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This reply is in no way meant to sound critical - it's just intended to bring to your attention some points you may wish to consider. You certainly don't need to agree. Good luck with your number crunching.

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Well criticism improves critical thinking.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

pre-adjudication means that your case is ready to receive a visa number, when available - documentarily qualified is the official term I think. I would guess that that means that your RFE is cleared.

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Thank you, that would be nice..

To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 15986 (needs 15 K spillover)

To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 18838 (needs 17.8K spillover)

To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 22473 (needs 21.5 K spillover)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Then how come demand data number is increasing from past 4 months???

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erikbond101,

It isn't really if you analyse the numbers by year.

Increases in 2007 to 2010 can be attributed to cases received before May/June 2012 continuing to become preadjudicated.

Only cases in pre 2004-2006 can really be identified specifically as porting.

The first Demand Data to split the numbers back to 2004 and earlier was December 2012. Here's the monthly movement since then.

---------- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006 -- Total
January ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 150
February ---- 0 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 100
March ------ 25 ---- 25 ---- 50 ---- 100

Total ------ 75 --- 125 --- 150 ---- 350

That seems more consistent with either a normal fluctuation in the figures or a few cases received before June 2012 finally becoming pre-adjudicated, just as the 2007-2010 cases have been.

To me, it does not represent the numbers I would expect for all porters and is consistent with large numbers waiting for their PD to become Current.

Latest National Processing Volumes and Trends


I-140 Volume in Dec 12 is 7185 and I-485 volume is 14846. Both are less than previous month number, ignoring Oct 12 for I-485.(As OCT 12, VB dates are not current for ROW EB2)

Total Total
Mon/ I-485 I-140
Jan11 13422 6056
Feb11 14352 6859
Mar11 22258 8739
Apr11 20008 7464
May11 19010 6665
Jun11 19724 6597
Jul11 19271 6081
Aug11 18845 6989
Sep11 16060 5786
Oct11 17562 6244
Nov11 20977 5885
Dec11 23708 5850
Jan12 27506 4896
Feb12 30551 4762
Mar12 26717 4836
Apr12 18341 4670
May12 15802 5635
Jun12 17170 7297
Jul12 15560 8093
Aug12 12657 7886
Sep12 10826 6910
Oct12 14127 8978
Nov12 16770 7343
Dec12 14846 7185

redsox2009,

Isn't it November 2012 you need to ignore?

The Cut Off Date for EB2-WW moved to 01JAN12 in October, but only became Current in November. Wouldn't that be the odd month? - higher than normal Receipts would be expected, since any 2012 PD would have been waiting since July 2012 to file.

The I-140 Receipts are at the highest level since mid 2011.

Spec,

Does this volume include concurrent filing I-485 ? in otherwords, do they follow the same rule as that of inventory? (I-485 included only after I140 approval)

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec,

Does this volume include concurrent filing I-485 ? in otherwords, do they follow the same rule as that of inventory? (I-485 included only after I140 approval)

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Kanmani,

I have no idea.

I have always assumed (unlike the USCIS Inventory) that the number includes all I-485 submitted.

Of course, not all I-485 submitted to NSC and TSC are EB - I believe EB historically only account for about 44% of the total. Last year that rose to 59%, but I think that was distorted by the large number of EB2-IC who could file I-485 in FY2012.

@GURUS

When would be an approximate time to get an idea on the Porting movement, What the Q3 would look like with Priority Dates for FY2013.

thanks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Kanmani,

I have no idea.

I have always assumed (unlike the USCIS Inventory) that the number includes all I-485 submitted.

Of course, not all I-485 submitted to NSC and TSC are EB - I believe EB historically only account for about 44% of the total. Last year that rose to 59%, but I think that was distorted by the large number of EB2-IC who could file I-485 in FY2012.

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I found this in trackitt:

"My lawyer said me that the dates for EB2I can go back to 2003. It is because a couple of major corporations ported all their employees from EB3 to EB2. they can consume 3500 visas easily."

Can this be true? and it goes back to my previous question (see few posts above)

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

I found this in trackitt:

"My lawyer said me that the dates for EB2I can go back to 2003. It is because a couple of major corporations ported all their employees from EB3 to EB2. they can consume 3500 visas easily."

Can this be true? and it goes back to my previous question (see few posts above)

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It won't go back to 2003 this year. It could and most likely will move back significantly in Oct. How the lawyers got 2003 - who knows? If by "couple", he meant 2, then I think its a major stretch. I can't imagine 2 companies with 3500 EB3 employees. Only the Infosys, Wipro types have that kind of size.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

It won't go back to 2003 this year. It could and most likely will move back significantly in Oct. How the lawyers got 2003 - who knows? If by "couple", he meant 2, then I think its a major stretch. I can't imagine 2 companies with 3500 EB3 employees. Only the Infosys, Wipro types have that kind of size.

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Agree with vizcard's comment.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

It won't go back to 2003 this year. It could and most likely will move back significantly in Oct. How the lawyers got 2003 - who knows? If by "couple", he meant 2, then I think its a major stretch. I can't imagine 2 companies with 3500 EB3 employees. Only the Infosys, Wipro types have that kind of size.

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It doesn't have to be 3500 employees right, it can be 900 employees and 2600 dependents right?

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

I found this in trackitt:

"My lawyer said me that the dates for EB2I can go back to 2003. It is because a couple of major corporations ported all their employees from EB3 to EB2. they can consume 3500 visas easily."

Can this be true? and it goes back to my previous question (see few posts above)

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The current retrogression is due to massive porting of EB2 applicants to EB1. Many reputed companies in silicon valley are doing this. EB3 to EB2 porting was always there, it didn't increase drastically recently. EB2->EB1 porting has starved EB2 of the massive spillovers they used to get and hence the retrogression.

There sure is what seems to be misuse of EB1. Unfortunately the misuse is within USCIS rules - so unless there is rule change, this is going to continue. This is quite controversial - and so my last word today on this topic.

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Originally Posted by gcq

The current retrogression is due to massive porting of EB2 applicants to EB1. Many reputed companies in silicon valley are doing this. EB3 to EB2 porting was always there, it didn't increase drastically recently. EB2->EB1 porting has starved EB2 of the massive spillovers they used to get and hence the retrogression.

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Hope USCIS allows the filing of I485 after I140 is approved.That will help everybody EB2/EB3 IC ROW.This is an Administrative fix.But again there should be a desire to fix the problem.

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

It doesn't have to be 3500 employees right, it can be 900 employees and 2600 dependents right?

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Fair point although even 900 pure EB3 from 2 companies would be rather large. But at this point it's pure speculation from the lawyers perspective (and mine). I work a company with 30k employees in the US. I don't think we have more than 100 or 150 EB3. Although we probably have a sizable EB2 population.

Btw, I trust the calculations here way more than a single data point and that includes words from COs mouth let alone a lawyer who is guessing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by vizcard

Fair point although even 900 pure EB3 from 2 companies would be rather large. But at this point it's pure speculation from the lawyers perspective (and mine). I work a company with 30k employees in the US. I don't think we have more than 100 or 150 EB3. Although we probably have a sizable EB2 population.

Btw, I trust the calculations here way more than a single data point and that includes words from COs mouth let alone a lawyer who is guessing.

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I agree and I'm not trying to argue - but trying to find out the odds with this porting stuff...

I remember back in 2007 (during those substitution labor days), when the dates became current for all categories, every tom, dick and harry in these indian consulting companies got eb3 labor substituted for money, depending on the amount they were willing to pay, some even got labors dated back to 2003-2005 timeframes (the scale of money transacted was so huge that was even compared to the taxi licensing fiasco happened in New York way back). Now these are the indian consulting companies trying to port these labors in bulk becos all these guys became senior managers and directors in these companies in the past 4-5 years and have the power to influence their HRs and Visa departments to make this bulk porting (EB3 to EB2) possible...

So trying to figure out what could be the worst case #s for these porting (if we can predict/calculate). Remember there are atleast 20k+ primary applicants between the current EB3I and EB2I cutoff dates. What are the odds?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

I agree and I'm not trying to argue - but trying to find out the odds with this porting stuff...

I remember back in 2007 (during those substitution labor days), when the dates became current for all categories, every tom, dick and harry in these indian consulting companies got eb3 labor substituted for money, depending on the amount they were willing to pay, some even got labors dated back to 2003-2005 timeframes (the scale of money transacted was so huge that was even compared to the taxi licensing fiasco happened in New York way back). Now these are the indian consulting companies trying to port these labors in bulk becos all these guys became senior managers and directors in these companies in the past 4-5 years and have the power to influence their HRs and Visa departments to make this bulk porting possible...

So trying to figure out what could be the worst case #s for these porting (if we can predict/calculate). Remember there are atleast 20k+ primary applicants between the current EB3I and EB2I cutoff dates. What are the odds?

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EB2 to EB1 "porting" is much more straightforward, no PERM required, no recruitment, no PWD. Just proof that someone is a manager aborad and is a manger here. The definition is so loose...

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Originally Posted by justvisiting

EB2 to EB1 "porting" is much more straightforward, no PERM required, no recruitment, no PWD. Just proof that someone is a manager aborad and is a manger here. The definition is so loose...

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Also you need to work one year outside US...in last 3 years...not sure it is possible for mass upgrade to send people outside..

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Originally Posted by Spectator

erikbond101,

It isn't really if you analyse the numbers by year.

Increases in 2007 to 2010 can be attributed to cases received before May/June 2012 continuing to become preadjudicated.

Only cases in pre 2004-2006 can really be identified specifically as porting.

The first Demand Data to split the numbers back to 2004 and earlier was December 2012. Here's the monthly movement since then.

---------- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006 -- Total
January ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 150
February ---- 0 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 100
March ------ 25 ---- 25 ---- 50 ---- 100

Total ------ 75 --- 125 --- 150 ---- 350

That seems more consistent with either a normal fluctuation in the figures or a few cases received before June 2012 finally becoming pre-adjudicated, just as the 2007-2010 cases have been.

To me, it does not represent the numbers I would expect for all porters and is consistent with large numbers waiting for their PD to become Current.

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Yes This is still on lower side or quite low.

Now if we look at Trackitt data for EB2-I approvals between Apr 12 and Feb 13:

40 approvals for PD between Jan 1999 and Sep 2004
91 approvals for PD between Oct 2004 and Dec 2007

If linear calculation can be done, EB2I has consumed all 3 months quota from Oct 13 to Jan 13 for PD before Sep 2004. (close to 700-710 visas). That means 18X more number from trackitt.
If we assume same factor for PD between Oct 04 and Dec 07 then ported numbers that are preadjudicated or waiting for it are 1638. To be on safer side we can multiply this number by 1.5 and then total will be 2457.
So can we assume and say that porting in past 8-10 months is close to 3000 before 1 Jan 2008. It seems it should be higher than that....I really am unsure about it.

if this would be the case,I am loosing hope if any CIR or any quota increase will improve the situation? People are waiting to exploit the situation and unless the rules are strict and tighter, EB2 and in future all EBs may be tough?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by geeaarpee

I agree and I'm not trying to argue - but trying to find out the odds with this porting stuff...

I remember back in 2007 (during those substitution labor days), when the dates became current for all categories, every tom, dick and harry in these indian consulting companies got eb3 labor substituted for money, depending on the amount they were willing to pay, some even got labors dated back to 2003-2005 timeframes (the scale of money transacted was so huge that was even compared to the taxi licensing fiasco happened in New York way back). Now these are the indian consulting companies trying to port these labors in bulk becos all these guys became senior managers and directors in these companies in the past 4-5 years and have the power to influence their HRs and Visa departments to make this bulk porting (EB3 to EB2) possible...

So trying to figure out what could be the worst case #s for these porting (if we can predict/calculate). Remember there are atleast 20k+ primary applicants between the current EB3I and EB2I cutoff dates. What are the odds?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by erikbond101

Yes This is still on lower side or quite low.

Now if we look at Trackitt data for EB2-I approvals between Apr 12 and Feb 13:

40 approvals for PD between Jan 1999 and Sep 2004
91 approvals for PD between Oct 2004 and Dec 2007

If linear calculation can be done, EB2I has consumed all 3 months quota from Oct 13 to Jan 13 for PD before Sep 2004. (close to 700-710 visas). That means 18X more number from trackitt.
If we assume same factor for PD between Oct 04 and Dec 07 then ported numbers that are preadjudicated or waiting for it are 1638. To be on safer side we can multiply this number by 1.5 and then total will be 2457.
So can we assume and say that porting in past 8-10 months is close to 3000 before 1 Jan 2008. It seems it should be higher than that....I really am unsure about it.

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As Charles Oppenheim has found, it seems an impossible number to predict, unless USCIS release information on the numbers.

I've learnt it is almost a fruitless task to even try, since none of the assumptions can be tested.

As you correctly point out, the total number who can be approved in a FY is governed by how far the Cut Off dates move forward.

One approach is to use a figure for porters/ month /per PD year.

Using as an example only, 100 / month / PD year and eventual Cut Off Date movement to mid 2008 then:

By July 2013, 13 months will have passed since Dates became Unavailable.

September 2004 through June 2008 is 3.83 years.

Potential porting numbers becomes 100 * 13 * 3.83 = 4,975 by July 2013

Porting cases before a PD of September 2004 might use as many as 285 *9 = 2,565 by July 2013.

Total potential numbers by July 2013 = ~ 7.5k if Cut Off Date moved to 01JUL08.

That number just feels on the high side to me. It may not be. There is just no way to understand whether the assumptions made are correct, or even close to being correct, hence it is a fruitless exercise.

That's my last on porting.

Very disheartening to see your calculation on porting. Based on this rate of porting, what do you think the priority date will be by fy 2013.

Thanks

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Vkkpnm

Very disheartening to see your calculation on porting. Based on this rate of porting, what do you think the priority date will be by fy 2013.

Thanks

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Vkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Vkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

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Spec,

Is there a way you can put together a matrix with a minimum and maximum porting #s that you think will be and the corresponding PD movement by FY 2013 could be ? Something like below?

For 20/month/pd year - say Jul 2008
For 40/month/pd year - say Jan 2008
...
For 200/month/pd year - say Sep 2004 etc...

Without an idea on this porting, all the calculations in Page 1 may end up being just a prediction... May be too much to ask - sorry, trying to see if there could be any insight on this porting stuff?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Vkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

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Thanks Spectator for quick response. Wondering cannt we determine EB3 to EB2 porting rate based on approval/demand data of year 2004 and below?

I am very novice on this subject, so please ignore if I have asked irrelevant question.

Thanks

Is there any way we can know these porting numbers in the next few months visa Bulletings? as to what maginitude they are in? and predict the movement after 2 months how it would look like?

@Spec - When do you think you would get a better idea - (May, June or July 2013) in terms of cut off dates in Q4 FY2013?

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Vkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

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This information not available to whom? USCIS or CO or us. It might take very little time for USCIS to find out all approved I40s who requested interfiling as of any month? Why they are not doing it? or not been asked to find out? This beats me. If this helps to streamline the process, then why they are not trying to find out?. Future can be difficult to predict but not the past?

Sorry I am not trying to underestimate your great efforts!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Vkkpnm,

Welcome to the forum.

It wasn't meant to be a serious calculation of porting, merely an illustration of how difficult it is to do and the futility of trying, with the information currently available. The number per month per year could equally be 20 or 200 - there's no way of knowing.

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Hey All

this was posted on another blog and the numbers are confusing when compared to Spec, Q & Veni's numbers on page1. can you please clarify this number crunching?

Earlier this month, DOS updated the Visa Statistics links, thus giving the official FY 2012 numbers.

According to this, these are the number of Green Cards EB2-India folks have got:

FY 2012 -- 19,726
FY 2011 -- 23,997
FY 2010 -- 19,961
FY 2009 -- 10,106
FY 2008 -- 14,806

In FY 2012, these are the numbers:


EB4 -- 7,478
EB5 -- 7,641
EB1 -- 39,387
EB2 -- 50,593
EB3 -- 39,549
Total -- 144,648

Generally, the spillover works this way --> EB4 to EB5 to EB1 to EB2. In EB2 , all the EB2 ROW excess numbers going to EB2 India and China. Also, the law is in such a way that numbers has to go to most demand country. So, EB2 India will get all the spill overs till it reaches EB2 China PD date. Then, they will go hand in hand.

Let us do some extrapolation. Lets assume there will be about 300 porting per month. So, it will be 3600 there for full FY 2013. Also, from the above data EB2 - India has got about 39% of total EB2 numbers.

I think the best case scenario will be, if EB2 India gets the same as last year about 20,000. In this case, the PD will go as far as 01-AUG-09 in Sept VB, based on the Jan inventory data. But, from various lawfirm websites we are hearing that this is not possible -- as EB5 demand, EB1 demand and EB2 ROW has increased tremendously. If we assume, there is same number of immigrant visas are given for EB4 and if EB2 India gets about 25% of total EB2 number (45,188), with spillover total EB2 India will be about 15,000. This will make the PD move to 01-APR-08. I feel this is more optimal and can happen. According to me, the worst case scenario will be, EB2 India getting 15% of the total EB2 number. This still will bring the number to about 10,000 and moving the dates to 01-JAN-08 by Sept 2013 Visa Bulletin.

Of course, there are lot of assumptions here as in the number of porting, EB4 demand staying the same and EB2 ROW's spillover. We need to wait and watch how it spans out.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec - I agree with everything you said here. But then none of that really addresses what I was referring to - which is:
Backlog of Indians applications is part due to DoS' policy of having such backlog continue. A case in point was the way visa spillover rules were interpreted until AC21 which changed the visa spillover from vertical to horizontal. Second case in point is as I said the way ROW was flushed between 2007-2009. Third even tody we don't see quarterly spillover as required by law. These are very specific things and probably you would agree that DoS apparently acted in a manner that hurt EB-IC backlog.

But I will rest it too since you already did.

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