EB2I or EB3-I ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
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EB2I or EB3-I ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
edisonguy,Quote:
Originally Posted by edisonguy
Unused visas can (where allowed) either:
a) Fall Up from a lower Category to a higher Category e.g. Visas can Fall Up from EB4 and EB5 to EB1.
b) Fall Down from a higher Category to a lower Category e.g. Visas can Fall Down from EB1 to EB2 or from EB2 to EB3.
c) Fall Across within the same Category e.g. EB2-ROW to EB2-I.
So, by definition, the statement is talking about movement from EB2-WW to EB2-I.
You may also have seen the term SOFAD. This stands for Spill Over Fall Across (and) Down. In addition it also includes the normal allocation, so it represents the total number of visas from All sources.
Kudos for such a patient response. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
As per the trackitt data, EB2-WW approvals FY2013 are higher than that of in the previous years', but it was because of the clearance of stagnation caused by the overallocation .
So far the EB2 EB2-WW perm approvals seem to be on the lower side , assuming atleast 30% of the 2012 perm approvals fall into 2013 account.
Your calculation of Zero fall across numbers to EB2IC directly call for retrogression of EB2-WW at the end of FY2013 assuming no FB numbers available.
In the recent past the thought process of zero FA was ok , now I am of a different opinion .
What do you think?
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
That is effectively what I am saying.
If, for example, there were 2.8k approvals / month for EB2-WW normally and 7k retrogression backlog to clear, that would be (2.8k * 5) + 7 = 21k to date which is about where we seem to be.
The allocation for EB2-WW, including the extra FB visas, is 38.7k. To reach that would require a further 17.7k over 7 months, which is a continuing average monthly rate of about 2.5k per month. I think that is entirely possible for EB2-WW.
I think that is a little on the low side. EB2-WW PERM certifications in FY2012 only covered slightly past June 2012 PD, so I think a figure of 45% would be more appropriate.Quote:
So far the EB2 EB2-WW perm approvals seem to be on the lower side , assuming at least 30% of the 2012 perm approvals fall into 2013 account.
To be picky :) , exactly zero Fall Across would not result in retrogression of EB2-WW since there would be sufficient visas available. FB visas are available, so I don't understand that comment.Quote:
Your calculation of Zero fall across numbers to EB2IC directly call for retrogression of EB2-WW at the end of FY2013 assuming no FB numbers available.
If EB2-WW need more visas, they are still not likely to retrogress, since they would then begin to consume Fall Down visas which would otherwise have been available to EB2-I. Only if that supply becomes exhausted would there be a need to retrogress EB2-WW.
Sorry, I'm not entirely sure what you mean.Quote:
In the recent past the thought process of zero FA was ok , now I am of a different opinion .
What do you think?
Spec thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
With so much of information provided by you, I stopped scribbling numbers long back, whenever I go through your calculations , I am always hearing a buzz in my head, which was the reason for my confused post above. You are doing way too much to follow. (This is of course a compliment :) )
here is full article that AILA mentioned, this happened before FB numbers update it has exact same information mentioned in March VB
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/...february-2013/
As usual some notes from CO which has no logic.
EB-2 India.** Very little, if any, movement expected in the short term due to upgrades (porting of priority date) from EB-3 India to EB-2 India.** According to Mr. Oppenheim, in December 2012 alone, India EB-2 had 125 cases approved that were from 2003 or earlier. * Considering the current 2004 cutoff dates, EB-2 India could easily reach the annual limit — an indication that any forward movement is extremely unlikely. * Possible good news is the possibility of certain “fall down”* from EB-1 (numbers are not known at this point) to allow for more numbers to be used for EB-2 India.** “Fall down” refers to taking numbers from one category which may remain unused (EB-1) and allocating t another category which has a high demand (EB-2 India, for example).**** Current numbers indicate that there are approximately 42,000 EB-2 India cases in line with priority dates prior to May 2010.
EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).* This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year; however, Mr. Oppenheim suggested that depending on demand he may introduce a cutoff date towards the end of the fiscal year, not unlike what happened during the summer of 2012.
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
That buzz is normal. I usually get a headache. :)
I don't expect people to necessarily agree - I think it is a good thing for statements / predictions / hypotheses to be questioned.
Thanks for the compliment. I know you read everything very thoroughly and have a very good grasp of what is going on.
The only article I have seen that mentioned a figure said that a total of 13k visas might be available to EB2-IC in FY2013.
That was pre the FB visas news. If EB2-WW use their extra visas and EB1, EB4 and EB5 extra visas eventually Fall Down to EB2 as well as the extra that EB2-IC receive directly because the 7% limit calculation, that is an extra 8.4k available to EB2-IC.
The adjusted figure would become 21.4k. Since EB2-C would use 4.1k, that would be 17.3k available to EB2-I.
That isn't really any different from what I am saying.
I understood. Fall down from EB1 is not just from EB1, it is the consolidated figure from EB4----->EB5------>EB1------->EB2ROW-------> EB2IC.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Justified!
From the above exchange, I'm sure some people (not Kanmani) will be asking why, if there are 18,000 extra FB visas, EB2-IC might only receive 8,425 of them. It's a big difference.
Here's how the 18,000 are distributed across the Categories and what falls to EB2-IC if EB2-WW provide no Fall Across within EB2.
Category -- From FB -- To EB2-IC
EB1 --------- 5,148 -----> 5,148
EB2-C --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-I --------- 360 -------> 360
EB2-M --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-P --------- 360 ---------> 0
EB2-ROW ----- 3,708 ---------> 0
EB3 --------- 5,148 ---------> 0
EB4 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278
EB5 --------- 1,278 -----> 1,278
Total ------ 18,000 -----> 8,425
If the full Fall Across from EB2-WW were available, the figure increases to 12,852.
Why would CO say such a thing despite knowing the fact that there are extra 18K visas from FB? :confused:
Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
@Spec
Can you please give the best Range you think the dates would end up by Sept 2013 - for all the possibilities of the numbers you had crunched in?
Would it be - May - 2008 - Sept 2008?
thanks
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
CleanSock,Quote:
Originally Posted by CleanSock
Since the meeting pre-dates the announcement of the extra FB visas, I think we have to assume that the comments relate to a situation where only 140k were available and are based on that assumption (even if privately CO had knowledge of the FB numbers).
In that situation, EB2-WW would only have about 34k visa available to them. With that number it was not entirely impossible for the EB2-WW demand in FY2013 to exceed 34k plus any Fall Down available from EB1. If that were the case, EB2-WW would have to be retrogressed and EB2-IC would have essentially received no spillover at all.
With the extra 18k FB visa announcement, it becomes virtually impossible for EB2-WW to retrogress.
If EB2-WW usage is particularly high, then it could begin to impact the number of Fall Down visas available to EB2-I.
The other scenario that would necessitate EB2-WW retrogression is if CO allocates too many visas, too early, to EB2-IC, as he did last year, leaving too few for the actual EB2-WW demand in FY2013.
I don't think that is going to happen.
Spec.
One thing that I can not quite follow is that being current despite clearing last years backlog (assuming that it is cleared by monthly quota and not borrowed from future) how EB2 WW can consume all their own and also extra from FB spill?,given that EB2 WW inventory in January 2013 is only 13,385 ( frankly I do not know the inventory as of now? which might explain somewhat ) and next few months applications might not be easily converted into demand ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Gurus have listed their predictions on 1st page. I am not a guru but will try my best to answer based on what I have been following on this thread.
Based on Spec's earlier analysis, looks like we will be getting approx. 21K SOFAD/Spillover (as he mentioned don't hung up on exact numbers). If we consider this number, from I-485 pending inventory data and March demand data, there is approximately,
- 22 k demand by end of Sep 2008 for IC
- 24 k demand by end of Oct 2008 for IC
So, based on how much buffer CO wants, dates can move anywhere between Sep 2008 - Dec 2008 by end of FY 2013, i.e., Sep 2013. Hope this helps.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013
My last on the subject for a while.
SeekingGC2013,Quote:
Originally Posted by SeekingGC2013
Some people get annoyed when I switch from Calculation Mode to Prediction Mode.
All I will say is that range is not unrealistic.
dreamer,Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamer
Remember that those figures do not include any approvals in the first 4 months of FY2013 for EB2-IC or any future approvals that are not already part of the Demand Data. The other part we don't know is what % of pending cases will actually be approved, other than it probably won't be 100%.
http://www.cilawgroup.com/topics/news/
Multiple lawyers have started putting the 22nd AILA meeting details out on their webpage. Food for thought.
Yes. But they are definitely the information before FB Spill over news. They might have posted same notes today. If you think based on numbers available, there will be definitely big forward movement in Q4. Let's hope for the best.Quote:
Originally Posted by idiotic
The USCIS Dashboard figures have been updated with the December 2012 figures.
Thank You Spec! That explains it all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Hi
I am new to this forum and amazed at the amount of calculations etc that are used in this forum. My priority date is similar to what gkjppp had. What is the probability of early 2010 becoming current in the next financial year (2014) ?
if current trend continuous for next couple of years without immigration reform, its unlikely to be current. with FB spillover we may or maynot reach sep'2008 this year. again there must be retro during start of next fiscal year to takecare of porting etc. it needs almost 25k+ visas for 2014 to see light for us.Spec has already explained with data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by incredible
gkjppp,Quote:
Originally Posted by gkjppp
Unfortunately, I agree with your prognosis.
With porting over 2 years, it probably requires close to 45k EB2-I approvals for EB2-I to reach the end of 2009. Then it requires about 1k per month within 2010 according to the current figures.
Including EB2-C that translates into more than 50k SOFAD across FY2013 and FY2014 just to reach 2010.
That is probably a tough ask.
Spectator.
I completely agree with you. Its hard to accurately predict and read whats on CO's mind. I was just trying to explain by taking spillover numbers as constant, which itself is highly variable number.
Last but not least, I really admire your contribution to the immigration community and like you number crunching/analysis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
With sequestration i.e reduction in USCIS budget and potential reduction in personnel coming up do we have to adjust the prediction? Do we have to account for less number of GCs being issued? How about the loss of 3-5K ? I know this variable is unknown and is completely a what if scenario but still I thought of floating the idea around.
Friends,
I have updated the header http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2013
Unfortunately I too do not have any better news. Every single category has strong ongoing demand and significant backlog which together pretty much leaves EB2IC high and dry this year. The only thing that will work in EB2IC favor is the 12K FB visas (5K alloted to EB3 and 1K to EB5).
I am now reasonably comfortable with this forecast. IMHO the forecast error could be 2-3 months max.
Hello every one.
I have been an avid reader and follower of this Forum from long time. Just wanted to share my thoughts.
This is the only forum (to my knowledge) which discusses and analyzes the immigration numbers with a blend of calculations and sensible predictions.
I would like to express my heart full Thanks and Admiration towards Q, Spec and all the others who are contributing so VALUABLE insights.
Thank you for letting me to be a part of this group.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamer
I will frame it otherway. The number balance may not match always.
We see that there is atleast some percent unresolved cases either due to RFE (Either EVL or AC21) or some other checks being re-initiated.
This percent number could be very much a gray area, but CO might have some idea of this or may take guess.
For eg. if we take this at 20%, then the PD progress date would dart head.
More delay in applying the spill over, the more progression of PD would be.
For eg. If in strict sense, spill over is applied in last quarter, the PD would have to be randonly extended ahead but with a plan to pull back or control in next 3 months.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Hi Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
If we assume dates will start moving in July 2013. By that time EB2-I may have already used 2372 normal allocated visas out of 3163. So now at this point of time total number of available visas are 15 K + 1K = 16 K available.
As of Feb 2013 demand data is showing 7300 pending till Jan 1 2008.
To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 13636 (needs 12.5K spillover)
To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 16488 (needs 15.5K spillover)
To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 1250 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 20123 (needs 19.0 K spillover)
extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months ----demand data number is increasing by around 200-300 every month.
Let me know what you think.
One quick question probably a very stupid question (as you can see this is my post here...)
From the above post and in the other places before the porting #s for this year are being considered around 3k-5k - is it purely prediction or has some calculation behind (if so may I know how we ended up with this #? - from the recent Perm/I-140 approvals may be?). Also this 3k-5k is only the primary or include the dependants too?
BTW, Hats off to all the gurus, pandits, sophomores and others here - great job!
From Trackitt:
It is almost clear 13K of the FB spillover will come to EB2. The question is will EB2 ROW need some from FB to remain current. Not sure so far.
For the sake of discussion let us assume, EB2 WW requires additional 5000 visas. That will leave 8000 visas for EB2I. There will be additional spill over from EB1 for sure, let us say 3000 visas. So the minimum spillover is 11000.
11K + 2.8 K normal quota. it is roughly 14K.
The wild card is EB3 I to EB2 I portings.There are 7300 , EB2 I applications until end of 2007. Let us say another 5000 portings between now and end of fiscal. So the total demand is 7300 + 5000 = 12300 to cover the until 2007. That leaves atleast 3000 visas into 2008. Roughly February of 2008. This is the most pessimistic approach according to me.
Pessimistic Approach: February 2008.
Realistic Approach : June 2008. ( EB2 WW needs only 1K spill over from FB, and EB1 yeilds roughly 4k, EB4 and EB5 yields 2K)
Optimistic Approach : September 2008. ( For the controller to make sure visas are not wasted)
Either way it is for sure, it will reach close to mid of 2008. :):)
erikbond101,Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
It is easier just to add the total amount of porting cases you estimate for the year to the base number to reach a particular Cut Off Date.
Currently, your calculation does not take account of the cases already approved in Oct-Jan. That is probably about a further 1k.
Until the PD becomes Current, a porting case will not show in the Demand Data for EB2, since USCIS cannot request a visa under EB2 until then. So far, that is all cases with a PD of Sept 2004 or later that became ready to adjudicate since June 2012. By July 2013, there will be over a year's worth to add as the Cut off Date moves forward (assuming it stays relatively unchanged until then).
From the beginning of February 2013 (the date the DD was published) there are 8 months remaining in the FY, not the 5 you are allowing. Your estimate of further porting cases looks on the low side, since it would total only (the missing 1k) plus 1.25k. So far this year, PD2003 and 3/4 of PD2004 alone seem to have been able to sustain 250 / month.
This reply is in no way meant to sound critical - it's just intended to bring to your attention some points you may wish to consider. You certainly don't need to agree. Good luck with your number crunching.
What does pre-adjudication really mean.
I called USCIS to find about my RFE on 485, and they said my case is pre-adjudicated. DOes it mean RFE is cleared.
Thanks,
My impression is that USCIS runs entirely on the fees that it collects. There is no additional funding from the federal govt - so sequestration should have no effect on USCIS' working.
PS> Hello everyone. Its been some time since I posted anything.
Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
pre-adjudication means that your case is ready to receive a visa number, when available - documentarily qualified is the official term I think. I would guess that that means that your RFE is cleared.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Sure Thanks. I have included Oct-Jan 2013 in regular quota for 9 months till July. (263*9 = 2372). So left out for this year is around 1K from regular quota. (15K spillover + 1K = 16 K)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Then how come demand data number is increasing from past 4 months???Quote:
Until the PD becomes Current, a porting case will not show in the Demand Data for EB2, since USCIS cannot request a visa under EB2 until then. So far, that is all cases with a PD of Sept 2004 or later that became ready to adjudicate since June 2012. By July 2013, there will be over a year's worth to add as the Cut off Date moves forward (assuming it stays relatively unchanged until then).
I did consider it see above.Quote:
From the beginning of February 2013 (the date the DD was published) there are 8 months remaining in the FY, not the 5 you are allowing.
Now this is a worrying aspect. If 250 numbers are getting consumed only in 2003 and 2004, (250*9 = 2250 till July considered above) then what will happen if we consider rest of 2004 and 2005 2006 2007, 2008. (assume 400*9 = 3600 extra numbers needed to adjudicated in July 2013). So here I was wrong it should be 3600 instead of 1250 in July 2013.Quote:
Your estimate of further porting cases looks on the low side, since it would total only (the missing 1k) plus 1.25k. So far this year, PD2003 and 3/4 of PD2004 alone seem to have been able to sustain 250 / month.
Well criticism improves critical thinking.Quote:
This reply is in no way meant to sound critical - it's just intended to bring to your attention some points you may wish to consider. You certainly don't need to agree. Good luck with your number crunching.
Thank you, that would be nice..Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
To reach end April 2008
7300 + 5086 (number from pending I-485) = 12386 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 15986 (needs 15 K spillover)
To reach end June 2008
7300 + 7938 (number from pending I-485) = 15238 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 18838 (needs 17.8K spillover)
To reach end Sep 2008
7300 + 11573 (number from pending I-485) = 18873 + 3600 (extra ported visas between Sep 2004 and April 2008 in next 5 months) = 22473 (needs 21.5 K spillover)
erikbond101,Quote:
Originally Posted by erikbond101
It isn't really if you analyse the numbers by year.
Increases in 2007 to 2010 can be attributed to cases received before May/June 2012 continuing to become preadjudicated.
Only cases in pre 2004-2006 can really be identified specifically as porting.
The first Demand Data to split the numbers back to 2004 and earlier was December 2012. Here's the monthly movement since then.
---------- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006 -- Total
January ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 150
February ---- 0 ---- 50 ---- 50 ---- 100
March ------ 25 ---- 25 ---- 50 ---- 100
Total ------ 75 --- 125 --- 150 ---- 350
That seems more consistent with either a normal fluctuation in the figures or a few cases received before June 2012 finally becoming pre-adjudicated, just as the 2007-2010 cases have been.
To me, it does not represent the numbers I would expect for all porters and is consistent with large numbers waiting for their PD to become Current.
Latest National Processing Volumes and Trends
I-140 Volume in Dec 12 is 7185 and I-485 volume is 14846. Both are less than previous month number, ignoring Oct 12 for I-485.(As OCT 12, VB dates are not current for ROW EB2)
Total Total
Mon/ I-485 I-140
Jan11 13422 6056
Feb11 14352 6859
Mar11 22258 8739
Apr11 20008 7464
May11 19010 6665
Jun11 19724 6597
Jul11 19271 6081
Aug11 18845 6989
Sep11 16060 5786
Oct11 17562 6244
Nov11 20977 5885
Dec11 23708 5850
Jan12 27506 4896
Feb12 30551 4762
Mar12 26717 4836
Apr12 18341 4670
May12 15802 5635
Jun12 17170 7297
Jul12 15560 8093
Aug12 12657 7886
Sep12 10826 6910
Oct12 14127 8978
Nov12 16770 7343
Dec12 14846 7185