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You are welcome. Honestly there is one more reason for reset.Quote:
Originally Posted by montyp80
In addition to the things mentioned above - we must also remove the delta i.e. inaccuracy from prior year forecast. This way we are best prepared for 2022. Otherwise that delta can accumulate and make 2022 worse. Hope this explains more!
The website www.whereismygc.com will be down as we reset our forecasting model for USCIS year 2022.
We expect the website to be ready with new data by EOD on Oct 1st.
We have reset our forecasting model and the website is now available.
Our assumptions: We are assuming 275K visas available during 2022 and that they will be used. We are also assuming that between 20-60% of 485s filed during 2021 fiscal remain unapproved.
Improvement: All of this is very very preliminary and thus take it with a grain of salt. We will perfect this model between Oct and December.
Your comments are welcome and let us know if you see any problems or things that make no sense. If we think you have discovered a flaw in our model then we will automatically give you back your monthly payment for the current month.
We wish you the very best 2022!
I renewed my annual subscription today but still dont see any forecast . Is there any lag time here ?Quote:
Originally Posted by whereismygc
Can you please try logging off and then login back again? Let us know if that doesn't solve the problem.Quote:
Originally Posted by rohanvus
We are making a very significant change to the forecast model. Please read carefully as this impacts you all.
We are introducing visa wastage as a parameter in our forecast model. So far we have been assuming that USCIS will utilize all available visas. But even before COVID USCIS has been wasting visas between 1 and 2%. After COVID during year 2021, they seem to have wasted approximately 20% visas. Such wastage very significantly impacts our forecast. As a result we are now introducing "Visa Wastage" as a factor.
This change is now available to all paid users. Currently the system makes assumptions that in 2022 under best average and worst case scenario 0%, 20%, and 30% visas will be wasted respectively.
Very soon we will roll out the ability for YOU to make your own assumption.
For EB3 India was the retrogression taken into effect? For xxxxx PD, it still shows Sep 2022 as possible forecast for Final Action Date. Is it accurate?
We think the retrogression will be lifted as soon as the FB spillover will be made available in EB.Quote:
Originally Posted by thums123
Charlie provided an update today. It contains some good data. We will update our forecast model by Saturday evening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0TNpUZtxa3s
Based on Charlie Oppenheim provided data we have updated the predictions and have also included some comments under "Updates". Overall we think charlie provided some good insights and that helps us establish good footing. The work was almost forensic where we had to correlate between last years model vs this years and then going forward what we were projecting vs charlies data. But we are glad we were able to make sense of it.
One side effect of all these calculations is that now it is clear to us (and you heard this FIRST from WhereismyGC) that DOS controls Final action dates and USCIS controls filing dates with an implicit agreement that FADs can never get ahead of filing dates.
Because there is very substantial 485s filed that are unprocessed, we also think we might see either retrogression in final action dates or very very long processing times for 485.
Finally, data is data. Our goal is not to be biased one way or other. We hope our predictions help you. We have one request though, some of you try to work with us to really dig into our model and folks thats not useful nor it is possible for us to engage you and explain our model in details. Your questions are welcome but please respect our time too.
Have a great weekend!
With our last update to our predictions model we now feel decently grounded in our 2022 forecast. Charlie Oppenheim provided some decent data that was useful in identifying our flaws and gaps.
The key message for 2022 is that there is huge unprocessed demand from 2021 and so in lieu of FB spillover do not expect miracles in 2022.
If we do receive FB spillover then we might see good date movement in 2022.
Our model accordingly reflect this message. Our best case assumes 280K visas and no wastage. Our average case expects 280K visas and 20% visas wastage and our worst case assumes not FB spillover and no wastage (even under worst case it is unimaginable that with huge backlog from 2021 how can USCIS at all waste any visas).
Because the forecast for backlogged countries is so sensitive to the level of visas, the worst case is disproportionately skewed. The best and average case will be much closer to each other and the worst case will be relatively quite far out.
However once we get clarity about the fate of FB spillover (we expect 140K to arrive from FB to EB this year), then we will update the model once again.
Hope this helps. As always feel free to raise questions by email (or here as long as the questions are not specific to your own prediction).
Rep. Nadler (D) and Rep. Loefgren (D) have included a new provision in the reconciliation bill that targets country caps. If passed then it will practically remove country caps and at the very least provide relief to all those who have already filed 485.
Read more update at https://www.whereismygc.com
Please like, subscribe, comment, and share.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C8ygs-S3dzY
This is Q.
I am writing to express my most sincere thanks to YOU all as WhereismyGC completes 10 years tomorrow. We launched WhereismyGCs Green Card predictions service on the Gudhipadwa of 2012. Hundreds if not thousands signed up within minutes. Since then users have really embraced WhereismyGC. After 10 years of consistent efforts, people today much better understand how US immigration works, how unjust country caps are, and how hurtful visa wastage can be.
We were the first to predict that it will take decades for EB-I-23 people to get GCs. We were the first to predict portings from EB3 to EB2 as well as reverse porting from EB2 to EB3. Our focus on data has helped us always be the first to predict how things are shaping up for backlogged candidates.
We will continue to strive to provide you the most objective predictions and information. We hope it will allow you to make better decisions about your life and career as you wait in the immigration queue.
Once again my best to you all and thanks from the bottom of my heart.
Sincerely,
Q
Today we updated the GC Forecast model again.
We took a hard look at ROW based on DOS 2021 annual report, down to the country level demand across EB1-5. Based on this we have now updated the forecast model a second time in 3 days. Thanks to the users who caught the discrepancy in ROW visas.
The new update unfortunately is a bad news for EB3-India. So if you are EB3-India take a look at it and lets discuss on our website under "Discuss". We think all those EB2--> EB3 downgrades are really going to hurt EB3. We strongly suggest all of you to look at the "Compare" feature and assess whether you may want to once again upgrade to EB2.
Please note that this model is only available under GC FORECAST plan and not under PREDICT IT
p.s. - On another note we will publish visa bulletin commentary on Monday.
Forecast model is now fully revamped. Here is a summary of 3 step change to the model since last week.
1. First we made basic changes based on 2021 actual visa consumption.
2. Then we reassessed specifically EB3ROW demand and applied those changes.
3. Finally we have determined that at least 2/3 people will move back to EB2 who had last year downgraded to EB3.
There will always be some people who do not like these changes because they think this is unfair to their category. But please understand we are not decision makers. We only provide you as best information as we can.
All the best.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ckmydBI_TZY
EB2 vs EB3 prospects for India during 2022 and beyond.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1OUrq2fLo8
July Visa Bulletin Commentary. Please share, like, subscribe our channel.
https://youtu.be/6vB8PvJGswM
The 2023 EB predictions are now updated with estimated spillover of unused FB visas from year 2022.
Visit www.whereismygc.com to view.
Hey, is the stock service still available?
I am curious to see how you all did this year ...
Please give me the link.
Dear Sir,Quote:
Originally Posted by EB22010Dec
In 2021 Qs stocks returned 158% annualized gain relative to 29% of S&P. (21% average gain with average holding time 49 days from 46 trades).
In 2022 Qs stocks is lagging S&P by 2.32% as of today. S&P is down by 16.6% YTD vs Qs Stocks is down by 18.9%. (12 trades 91 days average hold and 18.9% in red).
Thus overall if somebody followed every single trade since the service came into being then they would be massively up.
However, the service is closed for new customers and we may make a decision on its future sometime next year.
We are evaluating cost vs benefit and fit with WhereismyGC. We will let you know by Jan 2023 what we intend to do with the service. As of now only current paid customers can access the service. And frankly speaking we are sitting tight in this difficult market.
We made a significant update to GC predictions. Based on recent USCIS data there is a fundamental shift in understanding EB2-India demand. It seems we have been overestimating how 140 demand translates to 485 demand. As a result EB2 prospects seem much better than we previously thought.
Subscription required to view predictions and update details.
First time customers can use code NEWCUSTOMER to get 30% off. www.whereismygc.com
September VB commentary
Please share like subscribe our channel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1-33HM-q5A