EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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10-07-2011, 02:29 PM
valuablehurdle

Just wanted to share this with folks who are/will be current:
Today I managed to talk to the L2. This is what she said... Once the application becomes current, USCIS sends all the application to DOS for visa allocation. According to her, it is sent on the first day of the month. However, it takes 30 days to get the visa allocated for each application. As and when the visa gets allocated, it gets assigned to an officer in USCIS. He/she reviews the case. If everything is Ok, gc is given. The whole process takes 6 weeks from the 1st of the month it became current. So people who are current in Oct 1 should have GC by
Nov 15th. However, how DOS allocates visa numbers for each application is a mystery....
Mine is still in a pre-adjudication level since 2008 July.... Still waiting for the visa number even though I am current since October 1st.
Good luck to all of you.
10-07-2011, 02:40 PM
rahil1

my wife has always been on her own h1b

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Congratulations Rahil1.

This means even I would've got it, if I didnt miss the boat then...in...2007.....

Question: Now what happens to your spouse status, after you get your GC? As per my understanding, you must've just filed for your spouse after Oct 1.

my wife has always been on her own h1b
10-07-2011, 02:58 PM
imdeng

self.coach - my PD is 08/09 as well and my preliminary and very approximate calculations lead me to believe that under most optimistic scenario we should be able to file 485 in Jan 2013. Much depends on how much spillover we get from EB1 this coming year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by self.coach

Q, how much will the retrogression be? My PD is 08/20/2009 and I have been praying for EB 2 to be current although not losing my sleep over it.
10-07-2011, 03:41 PM
kd2008

Folks, please take a look at this thread I have started: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...iring-in-India
10-07-2011, 03:44 PM
indiasunil

Congrats !!!...

Congrats to all who got current in Nov. VB.

Best of luck for the rest ..

Sunil.
10-07-2011, 03:55 PM
indiasunil

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

:) I thought giving him lot of money will create unnecessary tension in life, why not enjoy this wonderful 100k car instead with 3D maps and monster engine.

Nishant - What is your PD ?
10-07-2011, 03:59 PM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by indiasunil

Nishant - What is your PD ?

11/8/2007

You can surely observe a minute of silence for me if you like.
10-07-2011, 04:14 PM
indiasunil

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

11/8/2007

You can surely observe a minute of silence for me if you like.

No worries man. We will catch our day sooooooon !!..
10-07-2011, 04:15 PM
pch053

Quote:

Originally Posted by kd2008

Folks, please take a look at this thread I have started: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...iring-in-India

Good and informative thread; thanks for starting!
10-07-2011, 09:27 PM
mrhyderabad

Any predictions for PD of 03/06/2009 EB-2 India.

I have been in US for 12 long years and missed one chance to file I-140 for my earlier PD 03/23/2006 as the labor took too long to get certified and when I joined another big 5 consulting firm at that time, the labor came through.
10-07-2011, 09:43 PM
mygctracker

There are some memos, think Yates or something, under which one can retain PD. But it is a memo & not Law...I've read forums that many people have used and succeded, so had issues...

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

everybody...one question...for my good friend....

He is working for a company in civil engg and is having PD of 2009 EB3 with 140 approved 1 year back... Now he want to shift to another company and file in EB2, during this process if his first employer cancels the 140... can he still avail the 2009 priority date for EB2?
10-07-2011, 09:56 PM
nishant2200

Fragomen indicate they have significant contacts in DOS, USCIS etc.

http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...0-23206c308864

rdsingh79's info seems even better now. rdsingh79, this was told to you by ur coworkers?
10-07-2011, 10:23 PM
rdsingh79

His PD is Jan 04, 2008

Quote:

Originally Posted by ravisekhar

for the one that got the note. Do you know his exact priority date. the reason i am asking is my priority date is jan 10th 2008.
10-07-2011, 10:28 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrhyderabad

Any predictions for PD of 03/06/2009 EB-2 India.

I have been in US for 12 long years and missed one chance to file I-140 for my earlier PD 03/23/2006 as the labor took too long to get certified and when I joined another big 5 consulting firm at that time, the labor came through.

Understand your pain, buddy.. hang in there. Please see the Facts and data section on the forum to get an idea ( obviously thing will change over time). Excellent analysis there by Spec, Veni and others. Also, see this http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011 ( brilliant analysis by our genius "THE" Spectator)
10-07-2011, 11:01 PM
Reader

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdsingh79

I think its fairly certain that cut-off date will move in early 2008 by Q2 of FY2012. And I understand (having gone through it) that the wait could be nerve wracking. Good Luck.

If they follow the FB model, the dates should move at least couple of months in each of the next few bulletins, it will reach Jan 2008 in the next bulletin itself. But, their disclaimer in this this bulletin states "While significant future cut-off date movements are anticipated, they may not be made on a monthly basis". I am not sure whether they are saying that they are done with advancing the dates for Q1 and the next movement would come only in Q2 or they are indicating that the dates would not move each and every month towards the end of FY after they get enough inventory.
10-08-2011, 08:57 AM
suninphx

Are there any consensus on the numbers being used (For OCt) are from FY2011 or FY2012. I am trying to find out a post from Q in which he detailed a theory about mismatch 5000 visa numbers (based on trackitt data I guess?). Interestingly the demand dropped by around same number.
10-08-2011, 09:09 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by suninphx

Are there any consensus on the numbers being used (For OCt) are from FY2011 or FY2012. I am trying to find out a post from Q in which he detailed a theory about mismatch 5000 visa numbers (based on trackitt data I guess?). Interestingly the demand dropped by around same number.

I'm not sure there is a consensus on that to date. Personally, I don't think it is as high as that. We can really only get a better idea when the DOS Visa Statistics are published in January, or details leak just before.

Of the 26 EB2-I approvals to date on Trackitt, the breakdown is as follows:

FY2011 Cut Off Dates ---- 3
FY2012 Cut Off Dates --- 16
Porting ----------------- 7
Total ------------------ 26
10-08-2011, 08:34 PM
asankaran

PERM Data Clarification:

I was checking the PERM data posted by "Spec" for month of Jan 07

Jan-07 - 2,595 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 --- 2,645 --- 9.13% --- 9.13%

Total cases including India, China, EB2, EB3 is 2645.

But if I look at I485 inventory report for Jan 2007, including India, China, EB2 and EB3 the documented demand is 3045. So can we come at some formula like of every PERM would translate to 1.2 of 485. I know this is a deviation from other calculation devised by experts. But can someone help in reconciling the data ?

Thanks,
Arun
10-09-2011, 01:17 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by asankaran

PERM Data Clarification:

I was checking the PERM data posted by "Spec" for month of Jan 07

Jan-07 - 2,595 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 --- 2,645 --- 9.13% --- 9.13%

Total cases including India, China, EB2, EB3 is 2645.

But if I look at I485 inventory report for Jan 2007, including India, China, EB2 and EB3 the documented demand is 3045. So can we come at some formula like of every PERM would translate to 1.2 of 485. I know this is a deviation from other calculation devised by experts. But can someone help in reconciling the data ?

Thanks,
Arun

Arun,

It is good thinking and essentially the sort of approach I used when I first started analyzing the figures.

It assumes that the USCIS Inventory is the entire universe of applications, which of course it isn't, and that all applications held by USCIS are in the Inventory.

As an example, Consular Processed applications need to be added to the figures (at different % for EB2 & EB3).

Additionally, the last USCIS Inventory does not include any PWMB, who still have to file an I-485 or CP application. For Jan 2007, that figure isn't very high, but it becomes a factor nearer the end of the current backlog.

Essentially, what I do is very similar when I convert PERM to I-485/CP numbers, but uses a few more assumptions. I've tried to lay them out in this post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

Welcome to the forum by the way.
10-09-2011, 08:54 AM
vedu

Effect of LC substitution elimination on the PERM to I-140 conversion rate.

Guys,

Recently I learned that effective July 16, 2007, USCIS eliminated LC substitution. Will that have any effect on our current assumptions of PERM to I-140 conversion rate going forward?

Also, prior to July 16, 2007, there was no expiration date for LCs. Since then they have imposed 180 days expiration limit. This may have its own impact.

http://www.visalawyerblog.com/2007/0...nation_re.html
10-09-2011, 09:15 AM
grnwtg

This information is already counted by our Guru's, please go through

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...ATA-(READ-ONLY)

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

Guys,

Recently I learned that effective July 16, 2007, USCIS eliminated LC substitution. Will that have any effect on our current assumptions of PERM to I-140 conversion rate going forward?

Also, prior to July 16, 2007, there was no expiration date for LCs. Since then they have imposed 180 days expiration limit. This may have its own impact.

http://www.visalawyerblog.com/2007/0...nation_re.html
10-09-2011, 09:23 AM
vedu

Ohh Okay. Another thing I was thinking about is porting. Some have predicted that the porting was to the tune of 5000 per year for the last two years. It is actually a good news going forward. The more the porting number in previous years, the better it is now. We will be able to subtract the porting LCs from the total LCs for years 2008, 2009 and 2010.

I am sure Gurus have also taken this into consideration.

Quote:

Originally Posted by grnwtg

This information is already counted by our Guru's, please go through

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...ATA-(READ-ONLY)
10-09-2011, 09:25 AM
Gclongwait

Quote:

Originally Posted by asankaran

PERM Data Clarification:

I was checking the PERM data posted by "Spec" for month of Jan 07

Jan-07 - 2,595 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 --- 2,645 --- 9.13% --- 9.13%

Total cases including India, China, EB2, EB3 is 2645.

But if I look at I485 inventory report for Jan 2007, including India, China, EB2 and EB3 the documented demand is 3045. So can we come at some formula like of every PERM would translate to 1.2 of 485. I know this is a deviation from other calculation devised by experts. But can someone help in reconciling the data ?

Thanks,
Arun

I had done a sample study for a few months and came upnwith near constant 70/30 eb2/eb3 ratio in the perms and I think a 1.3 to 1.6 perm to i485 rate for eb2. I don't remember how many i485 it came out to but 2500/mnth is too high.
10-09-2011, 09:34 AM
GhostWriter

Spec, one question, there is no I-485 approval rate in the assumption list. Is it close to 100% or does it not matter for setting of priority date.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Arun,

It is good thinking and essentially the sort of approach I used when I first started analyzing the figures.

It assumes that the USCIS Inventory is the entire universe of applications, which of course it isn't, and that all applications held by USCIS are in the Inventory.

As an example, Consular Processed applications need to be added to the figures (at different % for EB2 & EB3).

Additionally, the last USCIS Inventory does not include any PWMB, who still have to file an I-485 or CP application. For Jan 2007, that figure isn't very high, but it becomes a factor nearer the end of the current backlog.

Essentially, what I do is very similar when I convert PERM to I-485/CP numbers, but uses a few more assumptions. I've tried to lay them out in this post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...oved-in-FY2011

Welcome to the forum by the way.
10-09-2011, 11:52 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by GhostWriter

Spec, one question, there is no I-485 approval rate in the assumption list. Is it close to 100% or does it not matter for setting of priority date.

GhostWriter,

Clearly it isn't zero, but I don't think it is a very high number.

For practical purposes, I think the 32/28% reduction my figures already assume covers it.

There aren't that many reasons to deny an I-485. In many cases, the person could still CP instead, or clear the problem and reapply. For example if they have more than 180 days Status Violations/Unauthorized Employment.

For some it might be more difficult to CP, since AC21 doesn't apply to CP. In that case, they would have to get a new PERM and I-140 approval for the job they had moved to, assuming the original job offer no longer exists. They would still retain the original PD.

Even if that is the case, eventually I think most people will become an LPR, so the numbers become even smaller.

I hope that answers your question.

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