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Nishant,Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
PD is not translatable between spouses. But one can fall back on spouse EB2 application if PD is current. I pointed possibility of this trend earlier with EB3 PD progression.
Example: Both spouses filed their i485 under EB3 PD2005 during July 2007 fiasco using spouse1 approved I140.
Spouse2 got EB2 I140 approved in late 2006/early 2007.
In this case when spouse2 EB2 PD is current either they can interfile/withdraw/re-file under EB2.
Veni great catch, this definitely is one of the contributing factors in EB3-India moving faster in the last few VB's. as you have said Also there are people (Same person not spouse) with 2 sets of applications they filed in Jul 07 with their older EB3 PD, filed another 485 later with a later pre 2007 EB2 PD could not port date due to various reasons, in some cases they even had to file 485 again. I have read about few such cases on IV they got their GC's recently, one example is a handle – ‘frostrated’, he had a 2004 EB3 PD and a 2006 EB2 PD for some reasons could not port the dates so had to wait for the EB2 date to get current. These kind of cases are also bumping up porting projections.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thanks Veni...Q indicated that your dates are similar like mine. Hopefully they dont retrogress the dates in the coming bulletin's. Fingers crossed.
I should be able to post a checklist for 485 after I file.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Found this link in Trackitt.
http://shusterman.com/pdf/ebnumbersgone911.pdf
Gurus, any thoughts?
Using the derived figures, this is how I see the rough situation, with a few days left in the FY.
------- Visas Used -- SOFAD
EB1 --------- 27.5 --- 12.6
EB2-M -------- 1.1 ---- 1.7
EB2-P -------- 2.4 ---- 0.4
EB2-ROW ----- 25.7 ---- 3.1
EB3 --------- 40.0 ---- N/A
EB4 ---------- 9.9 ---- 0.0
EB5 ---------- 3.8 ---- 6.2
Sub Total -- 110.4 --- 24.0
EB2-IC ------ 29.6 ---- 5.6
Total ------ 140.0 --- 29.6
On that basis, Porting & PWMB would total around 3.6k, meaning Porting was just over 3k. Note :- that assumes that all cases with a PD earlier than 15APR07 have been approved. That is not the case, so the number still awaiting approval would add to the 3.6k figure.
Take the figures with a pinch of salt because there is a large potential for variance in the calculated figures. Others may see it differently and be correct.
Unfortunately, we are unlikely to know the true figures until January 2012, when DOS release the Visa Statistics, although usually some figures leak just before publication.
Spec
I agree with these numbers. But to come to your 3.6K PWMB+Porting conclusion, we need to see all EB2IC backlog until 15Apr2007 go away. Has it really? Or is there is a residual one left?
The residual if any - will neeed to be added to the portings + PWMB number.
Right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Totally agree with you. I was going to edit the post to make that point - I think I still will.
I can't get a handle on how many cases with PDs earlier than 15APR07 remain to be approved in FY2012. Those are headwinds to how far dates move next year.
What is your current thinking?
There are about 1000 EB2IC cases that are current but not approved in trackitt. That's about 10-15K cases (given that ratios have come down). I find it hard to believe these many people haven't updated trackitt when they have received GC.
As of now I can't make any intelliegent guess - how many of these are truly pending vs (gone back to India/China - approved - denied - ported etc)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I see about 40 EB2-I pending primary cases that have been updated within the last 6 months with PDs between May 2006 and April 14 2007 (the movement this year) and 5 EB2-C.
That would translate to not more than 1k cases.
I don't know whether that is a sensible number either.
Note:- Edited from original, thanks to Q's eagle eye. Originally it said 240 cases for EB2-I
Are you sure? Somehow I find only 38 EB2IC cases that are pending and updated between Jan 2011 and today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Oops!!
Thanks for pointing that out - I forgot to add the EB2 filter. I will edit my previous post.
That's 34 cases EB2-I cases updated in the last 6 months or 39 updated in 2011. For EB2-C the figure is 5.
That translates to probably not more than 1,000 cases, which sounds more sensible.
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...-2011-june.pdf
the numbers seem to be too low....is this correct and does this give any indication of how many eb2 I cases are waiting from jan 2008 to june 2011? sorry if this has been previously discussed and if yes please delete.
Spec.... there is one more question that we need to answer - "How is it possible that 1000 cases in trackitt are pending (i.e. 10-15K real cases) and they fail to update or even are interested in."
Question is how many of these were denied or went back?
That will also possibly increase portings+PWMBs. Right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
this was discussed earlier, this is only for Consular Processing, and hence it's low.
Quote:
Originally Posted by geterdone
Pardon my lingo..I am still new to all this
What abt the NVC(sic) notices? What are the dates the notices(?) are being sent out to? Any updates?
There were some news about PD 2008 getting notices this past June etc?
I think the fab 5 should be employed with DOS or USCIS, then the date would move even faster.
On another note came across a company that is not in IT, but seem to be involved in some fraud. Especially promising the health scinces masters coming out of college with sponsorig for H1 and then collecting money as security deposit to be returned after two months of joining and then not even filing H1. Have know a few people who were effected because of this. Is there a way these guys can report to USCIS with details without the individuals being scrutinized as a witchhunt. I guess someone them returned to their home coutires too.
I wanted to check on this so that the firm doesnot trap others in future and also USCIS takes some action.
Like the gurus predicted here... it looks like 2012 dates might move till mid Mar 2008.... because considering the spillover and considering the number of cases, that's where the line meets as some had mentioned before. But like in Oct 2011 (VB), they moved the dates by 3 months considering building the pipe line, this can happen in 2012 as well. So the VB's in 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we see the dates move beyond 15 Mar 2008 dates?
And considering the last couple of years or, so dates have moved more than an year each year... So by end of 2012 Sep-Oct shouldn't we have people with PD's of 2008 July eligible or getting current?
Intellectually I get the math that the gurus have done but historically like you said the PD has moved 12-15 months in one FY. I'm hoping that it follows the same trend coz my PD is Aug 2008. Really conflicted here :)
koluuuuu and vizzzzz.... aap khataar mein hien...kripaya pratiksha kijiyee...Quote:
Originally Posted by kolugc
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That number represents cases that may not have been updated over several FY - however long Trackitt has been running.
Over 100 have a PD that has never been Current, so are unlikely to be updated until the PD becomes Current. Others with older PD are just people who created a profile and then lost interest in Trackitt. It is surprising how many active members post about their approval, yet don't update their profile with the approval.
The ratio of Trackitt approvals to real approvals generally takes the un-updated cases into account.
There are around 4k total approvals of EB2-I in total on Trackitt. The number really only represents the 20% ish run rate for cases that are never updated.
Yes, there may be more with PDs earlier than the current Cut off Date that will be updated with an approval in the future that haven't been updated in the last 6 months or year, but if they haven't bothered to date, the number will probably be low.
Some may well be denied cases or people have just given up and gone back, but there is no way to know so, or how many they represent.
That is how I see it - it would be interesting to hear TK's view.
Hi gurus, I did some data aggregation and have a few questions.
Background info:
I looked at the total EB category visas issued by country of origin for past 4 years and the EB2 IC sofad share has gone up lately. the 2011 numbers are estimates based on the calculations you guys have done in the past. See table below (chart attached).
FY Total EB visas EB2 - IC SOFAD
2007 153,667 8.5%
2008 161,506 13.5%
2009 136,769 9.6%
2010 148,377 17.8%
2011 (est.) 140,000 20%
Data source: tables for past 4 years from USCIS site http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10...leV-PartII.pdf
Questions:
1. First of all the total number of EB visas for past years never adds up to 140K per year, why is that? Is there something I am missing or misinterpreting from the reports?
2. If the total availability varies year over year then do we have a way of accounting/adjusting for that in the calculations you guys do? What are the factors that affect the variability?
3. How do you see those numbers change for 2012. Any estimates on what will be the total availability universe?
Attachment 107
Nishanth
Eventhough I still think there will be a hard stop at Aug15(17), 2007, there are 2 CO statements from which I'm drawing my conclusion,
according to other forum (can't remember the name) CO wants to talk with CIS regarding 140 numbers once the dates reach Aug15,2007
In october bulletin, it's clearly mentioned this move is to build the pipeline, which makes complete sense because demand data already shows bigger number than IC quota, so they want to be ready for SO season (which I thought would be doubtful before the bulletin is released),
the important point is, it takes few months before receipts turn into Demand, will CO consider that and decide the movement based on receipts or he will just move the dates till he see actual demand?
Bieber, thanks for clarifying. I agree with your line of thought also having a weight. Especially since we saw the official communication from VO to CIS about visa numbers run out of FY 2011 and the reason that the sudden demand shown by USCIS in early August in words written, I have even greater faith in the CO communication portrayed to the chinese friends at NIU and mittbbs.
Also the experts here said that if really there is 12k sudden demand, visas left are not enough to satisfy this fully, as well as keep India EB2I/C dates at 15th April 2007. And presto, we did see them run out of visa numbers two weeks early. It seems to me that CO did honor the EB2I/C dates as much as they could and his intent was to keep them there, to progress further to gauge demand in next FY.
The 140 numbers idea, I think CO must have already embarked upon it by now, if he is going to use that. According to Ron Gotcher, USCIS does not have 140s properly grouped by country, category, PD etc to have a meaningful answer to CO's query. I am doubting that statement by Ron, he is under-estimating USCIS at least partially.
So now, if he had to do this once dates reached August 15th, 2007, why he didn't reach there in the Oct bulletin itself.
a. does he/USCIS need more time to come up with this answer
b. does he consider July 15th 2007 as the real date till which most applications would have been received, and August 15th 2007 is more like new demand, since he thinks majority of people could not apply and are PWMB.
c. ?
Either way, I think the intent does seem to be to generate the demand early on, and not wait till SO season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
ur DOB is really 1988? wow u must be the youngest of the lot...Quote:
Originally Posted by 28thJune2007
I wouldn't be surprised to find people w PD 1990s and also people born in 1990s entering GC Q now!! Give it a few more years and with USCIS' grace there will be many such examples - unfortunately.
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
cool_mj007,Quote:
Originally Posted by cool_mj007
I see slightly different totals. You need to look at Table V, Part 3 for the full totals.
FY ------------ Total ---- EB
------------ EB visas --- Alloc.
2007 -------- 154,460 -- 147,148
(in addition there were 7,312 recaptured visas used for a total visa allocation of 154,460)
2008 -------- 162,949 -- 162,704
2009 -------- 140,987 -- 140,000
2010 -------- 150,262 -- 150,657
2011 (est.) - 140,000 -- 140,000
The yearly allocation of EB visas depends on whether there was under-use of FB visas the previous FY.
The Visa Office have already published some information on the allocation for FY2012. It appears it will be 140,000. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_...cal_Limits.pdf That makes sense, since FB should never under-use visas as every Category is retrogressed for all Countries.
Based on historical data normally 10-15% used to be the norm for cases that are not updated. Now with greater clarity it’s not surprising that this number has risen. However there are ~ 425 cases un-updated that were last entered / updated since Jul 2011. I do however believe that most of these cases belong to people who did not update them after the excitement and euphoria one would have after getting GC. However there would definitely be some who are still waiting, though there are very few complaints on all forums about people complaining definitely some are there. I would have a offset of 1000 to represent the people who are current but not approved for a variety of reasons. Some case may even belong to PWMB's.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks Teddy.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
yeah, if he does 3 month move in next VB, if he does I mean, I really feel afraid we all are sweeping away in this new hope, then it would stop at 15th Oct 2007, meaning we both would be looking at Dec VB in November for our chance.
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Guys, I have been wondering how USCIS will deal with all the SR's, info pass etc once October starts...considering visas will not be available if they go by monthly quota for IC.
Is there a chance of an early quarterly spillover ?
Any thoughts?
Great discussion on vaccinations.
Moved it to its own thread at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...3-Vaccinations
Nishant & Spec
Pls through the following link to find if it helps in splitting primary + dependants
Here is a link http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/data/DSLPR10c.shtm which details the FB & EB immigrant visas
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
We have this info posted in FACTS AND DATA section under i140 to 485 Ratios(post#2)
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Nope, but IMHO having that data is not going to change (I&C) ratios much!
@Spectator, thanks for clarifying, I am amazed by the deep knowledge you guys have over the issue.
At this point I think you guys have a better understanding of the GC process/numbers than USCIS folks:)
Thanks again
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
On the whole I do think that the C folks do tend to have kids and especially older ones those born outside of USA more than India. I am simply basing this off the fact that most C folks start their immigration journey via MS or PhD studies in USA, and most of these by experience I have seen in my university as well as discussed with my friends in other universities, already come in with dependents including spouse and a child. They mostly come on Research or Teaching assistantships and the stipend is used to sustain the family in USA. I do not know reasons behind this difference vs I folks. So Kanmani you do have a point, although as Veni said, might not affect the overall ratio a whole lot, because the ratio is combined, as well as the I contributes to the EB2 immigrant universe much more than C in terms of quantity.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
This is recently joking told my relatives in bay area, who were happy about my promotions etc, I told them, due to GC wait, I will one day even be a Director or Vice President of engineering here, don't be amazed, it's not a huge billions of dollars company. This is mostly due to nature of wait, and time pass to overcome my boredom. My heart will still be just dreaming of SOFAD & freedom. We need to print one of those shirts which have 'Got Milk?' written on them, and instead write 'Got SOFAD?'Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Lol! Good one dude !Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
In my dreams these days..I see words " green card, USCIS, deportation, I-485, spill over, fiscal year.....the list goes on and on". When I meet friends instead of saying..Hi! How are you?..I end up asking " what's your PD? "
Ditto on the PD
Also, exactly what I think..the PD has moved by 12-15 months every FY. Why would it be different this year? If any it should be a tad bit quicker.
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
My H1 VISA expires in March 2012, my I-94 shows Oct 2012. I was stuck in India for stamping for 3 months , so I guess when I entered they gave I94 till Oct 2012. My question is when should I apply for extension? Before March 2012 probably?
My EB2 priority date is May 2008.