EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

Some thoughts:

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Luckily I came to know FOIA process from Indian friends and finally got my 140 application secretly. My company didn't give me any document in the past 4-5 years. This system is designed and used to exploit foreign labor and has no protection of the employee's interest at all!

It's not a fair system, it's cold blooded, especially for the Chinese and Indian applicants who have to wait for 4-5 years before the submission of 485. A guy on mitbbs was cheated and he was kept in darkness for 4-5 years and finally the company told him they didn't do anything for him. He couldn't do anything to his company, although he was cheated and wasted 4-5 years of his youth.

This system does not protect employee interests at all. It's explicit exploitation. Sorry for my words. I encourage everybody to use FOIA to check employer's work. We can't take the risk of being cheated. Here is the form for FOIA request. It took me six months to get it. I would recommend you to get it as soon as your 140 is approved.

www.uscis.gov/files/form/g-639.pdf

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by red2green

Hi, I am new to this forum. Thank you all for the wonderful discussions and taking time to help others out.

Have any of you here used FOIA to get the I140 approval copy ? My cousin's employer doesn't share approval copies other than telling her PD is 2/22/08 and filed in EB2. Is it possible for her to get I-140 approval copy using FOIA ? Any help & instructions on this is greatly appreciated. If it is already discussed, please point me to the link. Thanks again.

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red2green,
Yes, our qblogfan did use FOIA to get his approved 140, please see his post above.

Spectator and all other gurus,
When you provide an updated table for spillover (or any other estimations) would it be possible to do some scenario analysis?
So instead of saying the spillover could be X would it be possible to give out a range and say with optimistic assumptions it could be X, with conservative assumptions it could be Y and a more realistic assumption could be Z.
That might give us a better understanding on how dates could proceed.
I would be happy to help with any data cleaning and scenario building as you might find appropriate.
Thanks again for all your insights and support.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec "limited internet access" on vacation tells me you are probably single. Otherwise "any internet access on vacation" is a sufficient condition to make you single :)

Enjoy your vacation! After the September bummer, the October bulletin has infused life in the forum again.

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you do have a good comic timing Mr.Q.....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

All,

I see a lot of discussion about the "How Much Spillover ..." table.

I agree that the How Much table needs to be updated at some point - it is quite old now and things have moved on.

I think the best time to do that is when September has finished and we can see what the final figures look like. Possibly it would be good to see the Demand Data for November as well.

I am on vacation right now with limited internet access and no time to look at the data. However, I have been preparing for this already.

Once I'm back, I'll talk to the other Gurus about what to show in a revised table. I would prefer it to be base data that people add numbers to based on their own assumptions, rather than including either my own or others assumptions.

As a reminder, the existing figures assume that 60% of Certified EB2-IC PERM are EB2 and only 68% of 2007 PD Certified PERM ever make it to I-485 approval (85% of 80%) and 72% for PD 2008. Whether this is pessimistic or optimistic, I leave to individuals to make their own judgement on.

The table will be updated - please be patient.

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Spec, we are all eagerly waiting but will be patient... Enjoy your vacation :)

Guys - I have ben following the thread for a while. You have been all doing a excellent job helping each other out.

Qblogfan – I believe your story was more emotional…Everybody went through some portion of your story but you had taken a lot. I wish you and others get GC as quick as possible and are a motivation for the new comers in this blog.

I have a quick question for the gurus. I am one of those PWMB - PD (06/01/2007) which get’s current from 01st October. Does it make a difference when my 485 application reaches the USCIS..meaning 01 or 30 th October. Do they issue visa #’s based on PD or 485 receipt date ?

Thanks again guys for all the good work you do.

Trident, it does make some difference but if you have reason to delay then don't bother too much. Veni is in exact same condition as you are.

By filing sooner:
1. Your 485 processing starts early
2. You avoid the risk (howsoever miniscule) that DoS may change its mind on dates (heard only once during 2007 fiasco ....but still ..)
3. Who know you may get lucky and get allocated a visa in a couple of months if dates remain current for couple of months.

But other than that if you don't have any emergency then you can probably wait to file till end of october.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Trident

Guys - I have ben following the thread for a while. You have been all doing a excellent job helping each other out.

Qblogfan – I believe your story was more emotional…Everybody went through some portion of your story but you had taken a lot. I wish you and others get GC as quick as possible and are a motivation for the new comers in this blog.

I have a quick question for the gurus. I am one of those PWMB - PD (06/01/2007) which get’s current from 01st October. Does it make a difference when my 485 application reaches the USCIS..meaning 01 or 30 th October. Do they issue visa #’s based on PD or 485 receipt date ?

Thanks again guys for all the good work you do.

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Thanks Q...My company is working hard to send the application on 30th Sept so it reaches by 01st Oct. (kinda of lucky - they are putting pressure on me).

I dont see anything that should delay and am trying to get all the paperwork to them soon. Medical tests are the only thing thats not in my control. Hopefully there are no issues with that :)

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Trident, it does make some difference but if you have reason to delay then don't bother too much. Veni is in exact same condition as you are.

By filing sooner:
1. Your 485 processing starts early
2. You avoid the risk (howsoever miniscule) that DoS may change its mind on dates (heard only once during 2007 fiasco ....but still ..)
3. Who know you may get lucky and get allocated a visa in a couple of months if dates remain current for couple of months.

But other than that if you don't have any emergency then you can probably wait to file till end of october.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Trident

Guys - I have ben following the thread for a while. You have been all doing a excellent job helping each other out.

Qblogfan – I believe your story was more emotional…Everybody went through some portion of your story but you had taken a lot. I wish you and others get GC as quick as possible and are a motivation for the new comers in this blog.

I have a quick question for the gurus. I am one of those PWMB - PD (06/01/2007) which get’s current from 01st October. Does it make a difference when my 485 application reaches the USCIS..meaning 01 or 30 th October. Do they issue visa #’s based on PD or 485 receipt date ?

Thanks again guys for all the good work you do.

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Trident, filing early can have many advantages as Q mentioned especially (though the process is not completely clear) as many lawyers believe that files are picked up according to the date of filing and not necssarily Priority date, when dates are current.
But file all documents carefully. You don't want an RFE or additional delays if a document is missing. So, take time to get everything in order and then file.

Thanks Monica...

Is there any links or post resource, we could use it as a checklist and reference ....

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Trident, filing early can have many advantages as Q mentioned especially (though the process is not completely clear) as many lawyers believe that files are picked up according to the date of filing and not necssarily Priority date, when dates are current.
But file all documents carefully. You don't want an RFE or additional delays if a document is missing. So, take time to get everything in order and then file.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec "limited internet access" on vacation tells me you are probably single. Otherwise "any internet access on vacation" is a sufficient condition to make you single :)

Enjoy your vacation! After the September bummer, the October bulletin has infused life in the forum again.

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Q,

So true!

Suffice to say that the few posts I have been able to make cost me big time!!

No doubt my hearing will recover eventually.

LoL!! We need to have a virtual beer fest to bring clarity to this pain point !!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

So true!

Suffice to say that the few posts I have been able to make cost me big time!!

No doubt my hearing will recover eventually.

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USCIS processing times updated.

Texas service center on an average for 140 around 10 months and for EB 485 8 months.

Nebraska service center for E2/E3 140 is 4 months and for other 140 is 6 months, and for EB 485 is 4 months.

I think that for 485 adjudication, ideally DOS has to see the worst case of 8 months, or at least average of 6 months. Also you want these 485s ripe by June of FY so that SO season beginning with july VB can grab them. This means having incoming inventory 485s by late-latest Dec of FY, meaning by the Dec bulletin which releases in Nov of FY.

Things are looking up, man I sincerely hope they follow this common sense.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

USCIS processing times updated.

Texas service center on an average for 140 around 10 months and for EB 485 8 months.

Nebraska service center for E2/E3 140 is 4 months and for other 140 is 6 months, and for EB 485 is 4 months.

I think that for 485 adjudication, ideally DOS has to see the worst case of 8 months, or at least average of 6 months. Also you want these 485s ripe by June of FY so that SO season beginning with july VB can grab them. This means having incoming inventory 485s by late-latest Dec of FY, meaning by the Dec bulletin which releases in Nov of FY.

Things are looking up, man I sincerely hope they follow this common sense.

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Nishant,
Assuming USCIS/DOS are thinking in the right direction, this is the reason for early EB2IC movement!

Hi all,

Sept 2010 Visa Bulletin reads May 2006. Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin reads Aug 2007, over a year of movement. Okay so I went back a few pages and took a look at the numbers. Those were times when Economy was not down. With the slowing down of economy etc, why is it impossible for the dates to reach Aug 2008 by Sept 2012?

Thanks much!
My PD is Aug 2008 ; country of Chargebility India ; Category EB2

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Hi all,

Sept 2010 Visa Bulletin reads May 2006. Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin reads Aug 2007, over a year of movement. Okay so I went back a few pages and took a look at the numbers. Those were times when Economy was not down. With the slowing down of economy etc, why is it impossible for the dates to reach Aug 2008 by Sept 2012?

Thanks much!
My PD is Aug 2008 ; country of Chargebility India ; Category EB2

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RMS_V13,
Economy was great in 2007 and early 2008.

Please check I+C Monthly PERM approvals in 2007 and 2008(or FY-CY matrix), to find answer to your question.

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Trident, filing early can have many advantages as Q mentioned especially (though the process is not completely clear) as many lawyers believe that files are picked up according to the date of filing and not necssarily Priority date, when dates are current.
But file all documents carefully. You don't want an RFE or additional delays if a document is missing. So, take time to get everything in order and then file.

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Trident,
I agree with Monica's comments, even though they process FIFO basis, we are expecting only few thousand EB2IC filers based on OCT VB movement. No need to rush but make sure your lawyer has everything in the package before sending to USCIS.

Veni : Thanks.
I guess I am accounted for FY 2008 (PD Aug 2008). For this year 2008 , there are ~23 approved petitions. That X 2.5(incl family members) = 57.5. This is split b/w Eb1,2 and 3. Now, ~46 K Visas/Category.
EB3 will exhaust its full 46 K.
EB2 will be 46 K + Assume minimum Spill over of 20 K = 66 K

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

Anyone please?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Veni : Thanks.
I guess I am accounted for FY 2008 (PD Aug 2008). For this year 2008 , there are ~23 approved petitions. That X 2.5(incl family members) = 57.5. This is split b/w Eb1,2 and 3. Now, ~46 K Visas/Category.
EB3 will exhaust its full 46 K.
EB2 will be 46 K + Assume minimum Spill over of 20 K = 66 K

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

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RMS,

EB1 has no Perm .

The difficulty here is because EB2 IC movement is Spill over dependent .

RMS this question is constantly addressed on this forum and you need to self-help by going through this thread as well as FACTS and DATA section.

Simply speaking ... the reason we see end of 2007 beginning of 2008 as the date where the visas will be cleared because that is where the demand supply intersect (with a large area of uncertainty - almost 6 months in my mind)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Veni : Thanks.
I guess I am accounted for FY 2008 (PD Aug 2008). For this year 2008 , there are ~23 approved petitions. That X 2.5(incl family members) = 57.5. This is split b/w Eb1,2 and 3. Now, ~46 K Visas/Category.
EB3 will exhaust its full 46 K.
EB2 will be 46 K + Assume minimum Spill over of 20 K = 66 K

Why is it difficult for the dates to progress rapidly?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Anyone please?

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RMS_V13,

As Q suggested if you do little research on this forum you will find all the answers you are looking for!

In your calculations you are not counting EB1 & EB2 ROW (both are current) demand for the FY.

You can find 485 statistics under FACTS AND DATA Section.

Kanmani,
Thanks for the response.
Kinda understand how it works now
Best,
-R

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

RMS,

EB1 has no Perm .

The difficulty here is because EB2 IC movement is Spill over dependent .

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Thanks Q,
I did go through the link that Veni gave. That was useful. However, it is practically impossible going through this thread, that is so long. For regular users, it may be a pain to repeatedly answer the same question, but this is probably the 1st time I am even paying attention to the numbers and there may be several people like me.
Anyhoo, I will try to go through this thread when time permits.
-R

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

RMS this question is constantly addressed on this forum and you need to self-help by going through this thread as well as FACTS and DATA section.

Simply speaking ... the reason we see end of 2007 beginning of 2008 as the date where the visas will be cleared because that is where the demand supply intersect (with a large area of uncertainty - almost 6 months in my mind)

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Thank you! Kinda get it now..But still don't you think you are being very conservative in predicting forward movement?

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Originally Posted by veni001

RMS_V13,

As Q suggested if you do little research on this forum you will find all the answers you are looking for!

In your calculations you are not counting EB1 & EB2 ROW (both are current) demand for the FY.

You can find 485 statistics under FACTS AND DATA Section.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Thank you! Kinda get it now..But still don't you think you are being very conservative in predicting forward movement?

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As of now, it's really very early. Q thinks the range is quite large, Oct 2007 to March 2008. The two most simple but complex to compute variables here are what will be the actual demand generated for EB2I/C, and what will be the actual supply generated for SO to these categories.

The demand can be generated upto a huge number, it's just a function of distance of date movement. There is no dearth of people waiting. We can estimate that moving date to Dec 2007 can for example, generate 22k documentarily qualified demand for EB2I/C. But this is just an estimate based on assumptions like out of the PERMs, 60% are EB2, 80% led to 140, and 485 approval rate is 85%, the dependent factor is 2.05, and so on. What will be exact, no one can know, until actual dates are moved.

Similarly, for SO, it totally depends on how much leftover carcass we get from EB1, EB2ROW, and EB5. A surge has been noticed in the 140 approval trend / backlog reduction effort, as well as USCIS is having a big push on encouraging and making life easier for EB5. A proof of this surge was the dates stalling in last VB of last FY. So the idea is this year we may get less SO than last year. The projection of SO may be done by various agencies, in their own words, from past trends (last two years, 30k SO approximate), from projection of current trends (Q1, Q2...), consular processing demand and so on.

So basically both supply and demand are highly dynamic.

I personally cannot call any prediction conservative or optimistic right now. What I can call it is lower bound and upper bound.

The lower bound for SO is 18k, and upper bound is 30k. I think DOS would like to have an inventory of 30k at least documentarily qualified by beginning of Q4 FY 2012. They currently have bit more than 8k, moving dates to august 15th 2007, will give them total 12k. They need 18k more, if we assume roughly 2.5k per month, that is around 7 months plus 15th august 2007, which is 15th March 2008. To get to here, they might move 7 months in next two VBs total, 3 months and 4 months, or 3 months and 3 months. Some like bieber believe, they will move just one month next VB, and then do a BTM for like say 6 months.

Now, there is also a big difference in being able to apply vs getting actual GC. Having a 30k inventory is just that, it's not guaranteeing actual GC. That depends on actual SO.

Of course, we are just human and can fall flat on our faces, like everyone did with the surprise Oct VB.

Nishant,
That was very helpful.
How do you get month wise perm certification to estimate the demand?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

They currently have bit more than 8k, moving dates to august 15th 2007, will give them total 12k.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by RMS_V13

Nishant,
That was very helpful.
How do you get month wise perm certification to estimate the demand?

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Veni n Spec have compiled lots of data in facts and data section of this blog. Spec has very cleverly also used iCert (http://icert.doleta.gov/) data to estimate EB2 EB3 splits.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumd...ATA-(READ-ONLY)

The original source: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

Nishant

Adding some from my assumptions ,

2008 EB2China total will be less than 2007 total.
The dependent factor 2.05 is not working with China calculations ( Gurus might object )
There is a 3 months lag in Perm PWD probably a good sign currently

Excellent points K.

Can u enlighten us on ur thoughts about dependent factor for C.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Nishant

Adding some from my assumptions ,

2008 EB2China total will be less than 2007 total.
The dependent factor 2.05 is not working with China calculations ( Gurus might object )
There is a 3 months lag in Perm PWD probably a good sign currently

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Nishant

For China the dependent factor in my opinion is 2.5

For 2006
P= 7054
PX80% = 5643
5643X60% = 3386

3386X2.5 = 8465 (approximate EB2 China Total )

This works with 2007
and China porting is lesser than India


For India , in my opinion the hindering factor in the derivation of most appropriate formula is duplication of perm within the couples
Moreover Eb2 : Eb3 ratio for India is constantly changing year to year

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Nishant

For China the dependent factor in my opinion is 2.5

For 2006
P= 7054
PX80% = 5643
5643X60% = 3386

3386X2.5 = 8465 (approximate EB2 China Total )

This works even with 2007 .

For India , in my opinion the hindering factor in the derivation of most appropriate formula is duplication of perm within the couples

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Very astute observation, I am discovering this these days and am amazed at the quantum of this. Let's hope that these kind of unknowns affect us positively, in terms of reducing the actual incoming 485 applications when dates move. A bit of bad of this is that many times, this means porting, one spouse's EB2 taking advantage of the EB3 date of the other spouse.

Let me try to find DHS statistics if they can enlighten us on dependents for C.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

A bit of bad of this is that many times, this means porting, one spouse's EB2 taking advantage of the EB3 date of the other spouse.

Let me try to find DHS statistics if they can enlighten us on dependents for C.

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nishant,

That is not allowed or possible. The Primary can take advantage of the spouse's Country of Chargeability, if it is advantageous, but PDs are not transferable between spouses. The EB2 could only use their own earlier established PD, if they have one.

Unfortunately, as far as I am aware, the DHS figures do not drill down further than the overall EB Category, so it isn't possible to extract information on individual Countries. The DOS figures, which do, don't provide any breakdown about dependent usage.

I saw this link on Trackitt to the actual communication by the Visa Office to USCIS http://shusterman.com/pdf/ebnumbersgone911.pdf

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United States Department of State

Visa Services

Washington, D.C. 20520

URGENT URGENT URGENT

September 15, 2011

TO: CIS Section 245 ADJUDICATIONS

FROM: Immigrant Visa Control

SUBJECT: Authorizations for ALL Employment preference Cases

Effective immediately it has been necessary to stop
authorizations in response to requests for ALL Employment
preference cases for the remainder of FY-2011. This action has
been necessary because the FY-2011 Employment annual limit has
now been reached. Numbers will once again be available for all
Employment categories beginning October 1, 2011 under their
FY2012 annual numerical limitation.

The above action is a direct result of the USCIS identification,
in early August, of an extremely large amount of demand and
subsequent processing. All USCIS Offices may continue to process
Employment preference cases and submit them in the normal
manner. Such cases will be held in the Visa Office's "Pending
Demand" file.

On October 3, 2011, authorizations will be made covering all
eligible cases which had been entered into the Pending Demand
from September 15, 2011 through September 30, 2011 and are
within the applicable October cut-off date.

Please be sure that this information is passed to all personnel
involved in the process of obtaining visa authorizations from
the Visa Office for Section 245 cases.

URGENT URGENT URGENT

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It is always good to see the actual communication, rather than an interpretation of it by a third party.

Thank you Spec

So it is clearly evident that the october bulletin EB2IC PD advance is purely for building pipeline but not for 2011 leftovers .

"The above action is a direct result of the USCIS identification,in early August, of an extremely large amount of demand and subsequent processing" - This scares me to shit! The demand data for next bulletin would make for an interesting read.

I hope this doesn't become one of those situations - "Look we found 20000 more apps in this box".

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

USCIS processing times updated.

Texas service center on an average for 140 around 10 months and for EB 485 8 months.

Nebraska service center for E2/E3 140 is 4 months and for other 140 is 6 months, and for EB 485 is 4 months.

I think that for 485 adjudication, ideally DOS has to see the worst case of 8 months, or at least average of 6 months. Also you want these 485s ripe by June of FY so that SO season beginning with july VB can grab them. This means having incoming inventory 485s by late-latest Dec of FY, meaning by the Dec bulletin which releases in Nov of FY.

Things are looking up, man I sincerely hope they follow this common sense.

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Do you guys see a quarterly Spill Over as a possibility this year ? It is obvious that there will be at least 15000(worst case scenario) spill over to EB2 IC in FY2012. So I am hoping they would spill over 5000 visa numbers every quarter for first 3 quarters and for Q4, do a fresh estimate and use remaining SOs for the Q4.

Q1 - 5000 SO + 1400 ( From regular I+C quarterly)--> 6400 --> Majority of cases(if not all) who filed 485 in 2007 get GC in next 2 months
Q2 - 6400 ---> All PDs with PD up to Aug'17th get GC by Feb'2012
Q3 - 6400 ---> All PDs with PD up to Nov'1st get GC by June'1st
Q4 - 1400 + remaining SO(guessing 7000) ---> This should let all PDs upto March/April'2012 get GC by the end of Q4.

I just put the numbers with whatever the limited knowledge I gained in last month. So please let me know if I am making any sense ? The other reason they should do quarterly SO, that will distribute their work load across the year rather than working extremely hard in last quarter(as happend in FY2011).

That's great, removes my misconception. We missed you Spec.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

nishant,

That is not allowed or possible. The Primary can take advantage of the spouse's Country of Chargeability, if it is advantageous, but PDs are not transferable between spouses. The EB2 could only use their own earlier established PD, if they have one.

Unfortunately, as far as I am aware, the DHS figures do not drill down further than the overall EB Category, so it isn't possible to extract information on individual Countries. The DOS figures, which do, don't provide any breakdown about dependent usage.

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Dont worry, they are referring to the info given by USCIS about the 12k demand which stalled the Sep VB. They are indicating they have satisfied that visa demand by USCIS completely and have run out.

And also that demand was genuinely true, they really ran out, cant argue with that.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by bangaru

"The above action is a direct result of the USCIS identification,in early August, of an extremely large amount of demand and subsequent processing" - This scares me to shit! The demand data for next bulletin would make for an interesting read.

I hope this doesn't become one of those situations - "Look we found 20000 more apps in this box".

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Very well explained Nishant !! I might be off-base here but I see one piece missing in the calculation below. Don't you think DOS will want to have some pipeline to work with when they begin FY 2013? Just like they do now for FY 2012. If that is the case, we might want to add a buffer of 2-3 months bringing the prediction to mid 2008.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

As of now, it's really very early. Q thinks the range is quite large, Oct 2007 to March 2008. The two most simple but complex to compute variables here are what will be the actual demand generated for EB2I/C, and what will be the actual supply generated for SO to these categories.

The demand can be generated upto a huge number, it's just a function of distance of date movement. There is no dearth of people waiting. We can estimate that moving date to Dec 2007 can for example, generate 22k documentarily qualified demand for EB2I/C. But this is just an estimate based on assumptions like out of the PERMs, 60% are EB2, 80% led to 140, and 485 approval rate is 85%, the dependent factor is 2.05, and so on. What will be exact, no one can know, until actual dates are moved.

Similarly, for SO, it totally depends on how much leftover carcass we get from EB1, EB2ROW, and EB5. A surge has been noticed in the 140 approval trend / backlog reduction effort, as well as USCIS is having a big push on encouraging and making life easier for EB5. A proof of this surge was the dates stalling in last VB of last FY. So the idea is this year we may get less SO than last year. The projection of SO may be done by various agencies, in their own words, from past trends (last two years, 30k SO approximate), from projection of current trends (Q1, Q2...), consular processing demand and so on.

So basically both supply and demand are highly dynamic.

I personally cannot call any prediction conservative or optimistic right now. What I can call it is lower bound and upper bound.

The lower bound for SO is 18k, and upper bound is 30k. I think DOS would like to have an inventory of 30k at least documentarily qualified by beginning of Q4 FY 2012. They currently have bit more than 8k, moving dates to august 15th 2007, will give them total 12k. They need 18k more, if we assume roughly 2.5k per month, that is around 7 months plus 15th august 2007, which is 15th March 2008. To get to here, they might move 7 months in next two VBs total, 3 months and 4 months, or 3 months and 3 months. Some like bieber believe, they will move just one month next VB, and then do a BTM for like say 6 months.

Now, there is also a big difference in being able to apply vs getting actual GC. Having a 30k inventory is just that, it's not guaranteeing actual GC. That depends on actual SO.

Of course, we are just human and can fall flat on our faces, like everyone did with the surprise Oct VB.

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Saky, they can always repeat same demand generation in Q1 of next FY. Unless they are into quarterly SO in which case they can never be near a zone where inventory is less than 10k.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by saky007

Very well explained Nishant !! I might be off-base here but I see one piece missing in the calculation below. Don't you think DOS will want to have some pipeline to work with when they begin FY 2013? Just like they do now for FY 2012. If that is the case, we might want to add a buffer of 2-3 months bringing the prediction to mid 2008.

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