Printable View
abcx13,Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
If that is true then it is good news for EB3ROW, since most of those PERM we are counting as EB3 for FY2009-10 should have been ported by now! Once EB3ROW cross July-2007, should move at a faster pace!
In-addition PERM data shows fewer ROW PERM certifications for FY2011-12 (to-date).
Bottom line, once this porting peak is passed for ROW, EB2IC should be receiving more spillover.
Got it. Thanks for straightening me out. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
If those March numbers are true, then I suspect at least 50% of EB2 is being used for porters.
I agree. I think the numbers could be ONLY as high as 6K across board max.
The reason being, EB3ROW although painful, doesn't have as high wait time as EB3IC. So they can have max porting levels only as high as EB3IC (in terms of proportion).
EB3ROW probably has same or similar demand as EB3IC. So the max EB3ROW can port is about 3K ie. EB3IC level.
The statement about March that talked about 1K, could include each and every EB2&3 approval except a few EB2ROW. So 1K in its entirely doesn't represent porting. And hence can't be extrapolated to full year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I think there will me more 2008 and 2009 applications showing on demand data tomorrow.
Of course that will happen... Unless the USCIS has been sitting on its collective handsQuote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That is the number we all agreed more or less over the past year.
An interesting, if worrisome, post on Trackitt. The poster has an EB1A application.
While I don't put too much store by it, it is the first post I have seen that hints of EB1 retrogression of any form is actually already effective.Quote:
Posted by gn203 (24) 41 minutes ago
Hi all,
My I140 got approved in Dec 2011 and filed I485 in Jan 2012 for me and my wife. I485 RD is 01/27/2012. We both got EAD/AP combo cards in March 2012. Couple of weeks back our I485 cases changed from IR to acceptance. Called USCIS and raised a SR. I got letter from USCIS saying that VISA availability in this category is used up. Please let me know if anyone in this date range got GC or RFE or approval of I485.
thanks
The poster is Indian and, if true, it hints at a Cut Off date for at least EB1-India (and therefore probably EB1-China). In fact it would say that the date is already internally retrogressed. The PD is not readily apparent but is no later than December 2011, since that is when the I-140 appears to have been approved.
That in turn means EB2-WW would have to become Unavailable and that CO is 100% confident that other EB1 cases will fully use any remaining visas for the year.
Without further confirmation, I am not quite at the stage to fully believe that (although it is a definite possibility as I have discussed in my page 1 post).
I had thought that such an event would probably only happen in September, if at all.
I've only posted it because I thought it was an interesting development.
August 2012 Demand Data is out http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thank you, about 5K change in demand for EB2IC and about 4K for EB3.
Based on the deman data is it is safe to say EB2ROW demand is no greater than 500 per month, including upgrades.......
Numbers do not seem horrible if we could get the "normal" amount of SOFAD in coming years - but that seems increasingly unlikely.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thanks Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
The EB2-WW number of 775 only represents 8 days of retrogression. Consular requests with a COD of 01JAN09 should be near zero.
This equates to about 3k per month, or 9k for the the final quarter when EB2-WW is retrogressed. Not good.
2007 PD
EB2 India pending number from inventory 4904, Demand data shows 4050, pre adjudication 82.5%
2008 PD
EB2 India pending number from inventory 15136, Demand data shows 11150, pre adjudication 73.6%
2009 PD
EB2 India pending number from inventory 13429, Demand data shows 6125, pre adjudication 45.6%
2007 PD
EB2 China pending number from inventory 1046, Demand data shows 675, pre adjudication 64.5%
2008 PD
EB2 China pending number from inventory 3311, Demand data shows 2600, pre adjudication 78.5%
2009 PD
EB2 China pending number from inventory 2912, Demand data shows 1475, pre adjudication 50.6%
775 is not 8 days retrogression, last month demand data showed 250 number. I wouldn't consider entire 775 as numbers out of 8 days retrogresion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Since the dates were Current, last month's figure of 250 was solely due to advance requests from Consulates for the coming month.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
At least 90% of those would have now had the interview and received the immigrant visa and the number reduced to a figure approaching zero.
With a COD of 01JAN09, there will be virtually no new requests from the Consulates this month.
Since the dates were Current in June, all documentarily complete AOS cases until June 30, 2012 were approved and never hit the Pending Demand file.
So virtually all of the numbers relate to AOS cases that have become pre-adjudicated in the 8 days since retrogression started on July 1, 2012, unless DOS applied internal retrogression before the end of June.
3k per month also represents around the number of EB2-WW cases that seem to have been approved each month recently. I don't think the number is less than around 2.7k per month.
Demand data shows 9400 for PD after Jan 2009. CO in his last communication with AILA mentioned that there are about 17000 EB2 pre-adjudicated cases after Jan2009, i think that number is not correct. Even adding EB2ROW approvals between Jun19 and now, that number could not be anywhere near 17000 at that time.
Bieber,
2009 PD EB2-I shows 6,125 in DD. So with inventory of 13,429 pre-adjudicated cases would be 45.6%.
You seemed to have subtracted 2008 and 2009 cumulative figures from 2010 to arrive at 2009 cases. Shouldn't only cumulative(Jan 2010) - cumulative(Jan 2009) give 2009 cases.
Similarly for 2009 EB2-C - 1,475 in DD and 2,912 in inventory, so pre-adjudicated cases would be 50.6%.
Agree ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
What the AILA release said was:Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
and later it said:Quote:
Mr. Oppenheim's office already has 17,000 EB-2 cases for natives of India, China, and worldwide with priority dates after January 1, 2009, pre-adjudicated. There will be a lot of cases queued up for adjudication in October 2012, and it will take some time to get through them.
Because of the comma, I took the first statement to mean EB2-IC of all PD and the Jan 2009 date only referred to EB2-WW. That made sense based on the 01JAN09 Cut Off Date that was announced for EB2-WW.Quote:
Mr. Oppenheim's office tries to use 13,500 visas per quarter for all EB cases. This office already has more than 17,000 in line for FY2013.
The figure appeared incorrect anyway, because the July Demand Data as of June 7, 2012 already showed over 22k.
GhostWriter,Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
I agree with you.
Those are the figures I calculate as well.
Does it materially change it anything for us?
yes, my mistake, I subtracted 2007 numbers twiceQuote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
thanks for correcting
bieber,Quote:
Originally Posted by bieber
Thanks for taking the time to analyse the figures. It was very useful.
Perhaps you want to alter your original post to reflect the correct figures.
Thanks Bieber and i agree with Spec. That way anyone not scrolling through all the posts will get the accurate information.
GeeVikram, this DD (and the next two) will give an indication to people who filed earlier this year about the chances of their being pre-adjudicated. The USCIS case status page shows "Accpetance" (or "Initial Review" if you are lucky) and unless someone gets an RFE it is hard to guess what stage the case is in. This at least associates a probability to that guess !! Hopefully the pre-adjudication percentage will approach 90% for all cases till April-2010 in next 1-2 DDs and that should relieve some anxiety for people who filed.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Quote:
Originally Posted by geevikram
Spec, I corrected my original postQuote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Ghostwriter
It seems, all cases with 2008 PD are touched, either they are pre-adjudicated or waiting for RFE response. I don't even have new LUD
My PD is May 22' 2008 and I got RFE and I have submitted the requested documents to USCIS, now my status is 'Request for Evidence Response Review'
Can I assume my status is pre-adjudicated? In October 2012, once the visa numbers are available then can I get my GC?
or even though my status is pre-adjudicated I have to wait for my PD become current?
Please clarify me.
madhuganj,Quote:
Originally Posted by madhuganj
Even if your case is pre-adjudicated (and you cannot assume anything with USCIS), it can only be approved when your PD becomes Current again. For a PD of May 22, 2008 that means a Cut Off Date of at least 01JUN08.
Sadly, there appears to be zero chance of that occurring in FY2013 under current circumstances.
I am a bit confused about so little FINAL movement in EB2 India PD in FY 2011.
I agree about all other things already talked about in this thread about what all was unique this FY. But its been agreed that rapid movement of PD caused 22k visa number used already for EB2 India+ C in FY2011.
If look at historical data, PD movement every FY is about 11 months. Now spillover was different all yrs but still average is ok. Also, monthly EB2 filling is on average should be similar, about 1-2k/month.
Question: Why is FY 2011 different in overall PD movement? Shud'nt date move have been like this: FY 2011---04/2007 to 02/2008 ==11 months.
(I agree that some visa numbers went ahead to 2008 PD's but still, they are not that many.)
What is missing?
This is PD EB2 India movement last 5 yrs.
FY2006 --06/2002 to 04/2004 ==25 months
FY2007 -- 04/2004 to 08/2006==25 months
FY2008 -- 04/2003 to 01/2005==!! months exception
FY2009 -- 01/2005 to 05/2006==15 months
FY2010 -- 05/2006 to 04/2007==11 months
FY 2011 -- 04/2007 to 08/2007==4 months
harapatta2012,Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
It's not simple math, there are lot of variable that change from time to time, please review wealth of information under FACTS AND DATA section.
2007 did not clear in 2012 because visas were given to 2008 people. Spec has said this before that if visas had not been given to 2008 people COD would have been at Jan 2008, which is 9 months movement and that is close enough to 11 months that you have mentioned.Quote:
Originally Posted by harapatta2012
Late 2007 people lost out both times by not getting EADs in 2007 and now not getting GCs even though the last few years had been orderly movement.
Thats the way it works, we have obsolutely no control on it.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
Cumulative
Demand Prior To China India All Other Countries Grand Total
January 1, 2008 675 4,050 0 4,725
January 1, 2009 3,275 15,200 25 18,500
January 1, 2010 4,750 21,325 75 26,150
January 1, 2012 4,950 22,225 775 27,950
what are the chances of PD movement in Aug 2012 Bullitein.
Friends the demand data is probably on expected lines with preadjudicated cases increasing.
- EB2 I/C preadjudicated cases have increased to ~ 28K.
- I believe it is more significant to see the next inventory especially for 2009 and 2010 cases.
- In the last few years numbers have run out in September this year looks like the numbers for some categories besides EB2 I/C which is unavailable already will run out sooner.
- Since the available numbers are less I believe we should really not expect much in the upcoming VB.
-It will be interesting to watch EB2 ROW if it goes to Unavailable or if EB1 also has a cutoff date for India or as a whole (Spec thanks for your posting about a EB1 Trackitt user).
Good luck for the VB. I believe what happens in this VB especially with EB2 ROW and Eb1 will set the sentiment for the upcoming year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
I agree it is not as simple as i try to put it. I was looking this from a very different and simple point of view. Nonetheless, I beleive that the major impact for the chnage in tredn this year was that the visa number got allocated to 2008 ppl instead of 2007 as 'goforgreen' suggetsed too. I wasnt sure if those were that many but it seems that is the only good reasoning so far. Offcourse there are 10 other variables and reasons for difference in PD moevement but those should not impact the overall PD yearly movement.
So if 2008 PD people used up 4-5 months of visa numbers, then PD should move fatser when it reaches 2008 then otherwise would have.
I was wondering if there would be some data in future to figure out this distribution of 2007/2008 visa numbers to check assumption.
August 2012 Visa Bulletin is out http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5749.html
PDF version ..... http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...August2012.pdf
Good news is that there is no further retrogression for EB2 ROW or CODs for EB1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thanks Kanmani ....good to see EB1 current for another month...phew!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Just to strike an optimistic note, eb1 might even give eb2 row a few visas next month and we may see eb2 row cod move a little before the year end.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I am not so sure of that, especially after Spec posted this <http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?148-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2012&p=28398#post28398> yesterday.Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
We need that...specially with 'not so positive' news around :)Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83