EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Yaar yeh NVC kya hota hai? .... "nearest visa consulate"???

Quote:

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Originally Posted by soggadu

N Imt... i will tell you my scenario and my thought process... My current H1B expires on Oct 1 2011...my PD is 2007 Oct... So i applied for H1b 6 months earlier in premium processing so that if any issues i can clear them or get transfer to other company and pursue H1 and eventually GC process by retaining PD... I also thought the worst case scenario is to ask my lawyer to request for CP ( as during my 140 i didnt opt for it) and leave country before taking all the letters from employer... fortunately H1B got cleared for 3 more years... So i wish you all the best...

Yes if your company can sponsor, you can go for CP and it is optional at 140 stage but i guess you can invoke it anytime after 140 and before 485 and it takes 6 months for your case to transfer to NVC ...

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Technically its possible. Whether your company will be willing to do it is something you should explore. In fact what I would do is explore if company could send you any other country for one year and then bring back on EB1C.

Your AOS 485 stage is at least 2-3 years away and so is your GC as of now.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Situation - My visa is up for renewal in May 2012 and my PD is 4/3/2009. What if visa is not renewed for any reason, if my company continues to sponsor me for the greencard, can i do a CP? When do you indicate an AOS or CP? Has my lawyer already done it during labor filling or I-140?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

Monica ... frankly, i found it annoying for the user community here ... so i just removed it..... my wife liked this phrase in context of marriage, that's when i replaced "marriage" with "GC".

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Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh pachataye / bach gaya sala / bhuka mar jaye ... (depending on individual's situation :) )

NVC = National visa center

My situation is bizzare, i was a 3rd party contractor until recently.... my visa extension was filed after 6 years but until then my Labor had not arrived, so i got only 1 and a half year extension (recapture period and 1 year for labor)... but then, i had a DHS personnel visiting me at my workplace. ... asked all kinds of questions because of my 3rd party contract and later sent a letter to my company requiring clarification. In the mean time, i found a contract directly through my company and now hopefully visa renewal shouldn't be a problem. But because of this DHS letter and visit thingy, i am a bit nervous about extension. I was hoping to see some sort of BTM that would bring me AOS and AP. but reading all the stuff here, i guess that ain't happening. So I am kinda exploring all options right now. My question is, should there be a reason why my company cannot keep sponsoring my green card when all other processes are already completed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Technically its possible. Whether your company will be willing to do it is something you should explore. In fact what I would do is explore if company could send you any other country for one year and then bring back on EB1C.

Your AOS 485 stage is at least 2-3 years away and so is your GC as of now.





Jo khaye woh pachataye .... jo na khaye woh pachataye / bach gaya sala / bhuka mar jaye ... (depending on individual's situation :) )

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nishant_imt

My situation is bizzare, i was a 3rd party contractor until recently.... my visa extension was filed after 6 years but until then my Labor had not arrived, so i got only 1 and a half year extension (recapture period and 1 year for labor)... but then, i had a DHS personnel visiting me at my workplace. ... asked all kinds of questions because of my 3rd party contract and later sent a letter to my company requiring clarification. In the mean time, i found a contract directly through my company and now hopefully visa renewal shouldn't be a problem. But because of this DHS letter and visit thingy, i am a bit nervous about extension. I was hoping to see some sort of BTM that would bring me AOS and AP. but reading all the stuff here, i guess that ain't happening. So I am kinda exploring all options right now. My question is, should there be a reason why my company cannot keep sponsoring my green card when all other processes are already completed.

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N Imt... it is very much possible for your company to keep sponsoring as GC is for future employment... cheers... but i have a feeling you wont need to go that far and you will get your extension normally...

If next two VBs, I don't reach Nov 15 2007, I will be holding a minute of silence on the second VB's release day in my cube. In mourning for the death of one more year :)

Fragomen global corporate immigration law | News and Resources United States
http://www.fragomen.com/newsresource...erts&news=1325

Good news is that there is no wastage of Visas. Bad news is they ran out of numbers sooner than expected.

EB Immigrant Visa Numbers Unavailable Until October 1
September 15, 2011
The State Department has run out of immigrant visa numbers in all employment-based categories for this fiscal year. Until October 1, when next year’s visa quota becomes available, USCIS cannot approve any EB I-485 adjustment applications but foreign nationals can still submit them. Family-based adjustment applications are not affected.

The September Visa Bulletin – released on August 11 – projected that EB immigrant visas would be available throughout this month, but numbers ran out sooner because USCIS processed an unexpectedly large number of adjustment cases in early August.

When more EB immigrant visas become available on October 1, USCIS will process adjustment cases with priority dates that are current according to the October Visa Bulletin.

Friends this news from Fragomen confirms that August consumption was high thats why the Sep bulletin was so moderate. Trackitt trend shows that EB2 ROW and EB1 consumed double of what they did last year in Aug.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

If next two VBs, I don't reach Nov 15 2007, I will be holding a minute of silence on the second VB's release day in my cube. In mourning for the death of one more year :)

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I thought of donating X dollars to some charity org. If it doesn't happen, then it will be X/2

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

If next two VBs, I don't reach Nov 15 2007, I will be holding a minute of silence on the second VB's release day in my cube. In mourning for the death of one more year :)

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I completely agree with your thought process as you had outlined for FB earlier. The next 2 VB's should see all the forward movement.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I completely agree with your thought process as you had outlined for FB earlier. The next 2 VB's should see all the forward movement.

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:) After this I think the movement may only happen later on in dying stages of Q3/beginning of Q4, if USCIS/DOS realize danger of visas being wasted. We know that if need be, USCIS can do 485s in 2 to 3 months, as well as at this point, dates may be advanced not just for AOS, but to get the few hundred CP in. If they are advanced to get the few hundred CP in, then 2008 guys will get lucky.

If the CO adopts this approach for this year then most probably he would do the same next year. This would mean that 2008 folks should expect to file in oct 2012.

What do you guys think?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

If the CO adopts this approach for this year then most probably he would do the same next year. This would mean that 2008 folks should expect to file in oct 2012.

What do you guys think?

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Yes, true. 2008 is a big fat year though, same as 2007. how much of 2008 can expect to file, that would be the analysis.

I have a fear that last two months of 2007 will be intruding into the pie of next FY too.

Based on any calculation, 2008 will be current for sure somewhere around Oct 2012. Million dollar question is, is there any possibility in Current Year ?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by natvyas

If the CO adopts this approach for this year then most probably he would do the same next year. This would mean that 2008 folks should expect to file in oct 2012.

What do you guys think?

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

What ????????

Nishant this is too much to digest

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This is just purely based on surge of EB1, EB2 ROW and encouragement to EB5, which we all are seeing taking shape. let's hope it subsides due to bad economy or some reason.

At least I am thinking October will be in, Teddy has doubts on that too :)

I am myself November, it gives me a big heartache to even think this.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

I completely agree with your thought process as you had outlined for FB earlier. The next 2 VB's should see all the forward movement.

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I think then we are assuming that the FB trend will likely to be followed; most (if not all) of the forward movement will happen in Nov and Dec bulletins and the PDs will then retrogress back in the Jan bulletin (maybe around April-May'07). The PDs will then start moving forward again from April-May bulletins and approvals will start flowing in. If this scenario happens, I will say that this is a fair model where approvals will roughly follow the order of PDs and there will be ample time to approve EB2-I/C cases for the spillover season. With that being said, in this situation we probably won't have that many approvals in Q1.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

At least I am thinking October will be in, Teddy has doubts on that too :)

I am myself November, it gives me a big heartache to even think this.

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My date is 10th December 2007. One day it gives me a feeling that I will be able to make it in FY 2012 and the very next day it feels like it is not possible. Gosh, the trend is so oscillating.

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Originally Posted by Reader

My date is 10th December 2007. One day it gives me a feeling that I will be able to make it in FY 2012 and the very next day it feels like it is not possible. Gosh, the trend is so oscillating.

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So true...one day hopes are up and the next day , complete white-wash !
I can now relate to Nishant's " phenyl ki goli " concept.....this is like slow poisoning....

Time to do practice yoga this year again :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Monica12

So true...one day hopes are up and the next day , complete white-wash !
I can now relate to Nishant's " phenyl ki goli " concept.....this is like slow poisoning....

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by cbpds1

Time to do practice yoga this year again :)

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I think the concept is.... India and China are way too populated.... let's kill these guys slowly :mad:
Gosh! I think I'm actually getting bitter :o tsk..tsk..Not good!
Ok..note to self........ chant 100 times everyday " aaya to aaya baaki sab maya"

As someone calculated earlier in this thread,people with PD upto Dec2007 are highly likely to file I-485 in FY12- they may not get GC in FY12 though.
I think this is more likely.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 10102007

I thought of donating X dollars to some charity org. If it doesn't happen, then it will be X/2

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please don't do that....we can live with it but the charities cant.... I am confident you won't do that.....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Monica12

I think the concept is.... India and China are way too populated.... let's kill these guys slowly :mad:
Gosh! I think I'm actually getting bitter :o tsk..tsk..Not good!
Ok..note to self........ chant 100 times everyday " aaya to aaya baaki sab maya"

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looks like with the new patent bill becoming law tmmrw ....I should file a patent for my now phamous dialogue ''aaya tho aaya....''

Actually you can trademark it. One of the most famous 911 widow trademarked her late husband's words "Let's Roll" and licensed it to quite a few multinationals.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by soggadu

looks like with the new patent bill becoming law tmmrw ....I should file a patent for my now phamous dialogue ''aaya tho aaya....''

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Hello Guru's

I am sorry to ask the same question but with October bulletin and date moment are we inline with below figures or do we need to update the below figures

Below are the numbers from Spec in previous post's.

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

Until September 2007 i don't think we have pending of 14,778 applications,even if we do PWMB+Porting+pending applications i am thinking of around 10,000 applications...

Please let me know if this is not true.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by sai999

Until September 2007 i don't think we have pending of 14,778 applications,even if we do PWMB+Porting+pending applications i am thinking of around 10,000 applications...

Please let me know if this is not true.

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sai,
Specs estimated EB2IC 485 numbers are based on I+C monthly PERM approvals after July 2007 with PD2007.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Monica

I don't have any theory right now. I am just as much puzzled and just throwing various thoughts out there.

KD - thanks for the data. That explains partially why even if EB1 doesn't surge enough in September the visas won't be wasted. So with this piece of data, its quite clear that the date movement for next year is actually meant for next year's quota.

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Q,
The move is in line with what you and spec debated for some time.....post#6895 (page 276)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Spec

The law talks about visa allocation but moving dates is not something that law really cares about. in other words ... the dates can move without having to allocate visas to all whose dates are current or even those who are documentarily qualified. DoS has done it in the past and there is no reason why they wouldn't do it again - but for 2 reasons: 1) It makes their performance look bad when they can't process applications that are current and documentarily qualified. 2) Is there a motivating factor (e.g. building pipeline) that aligns with policy?

So whilst (oink oink) I do agree with you about why they may not move dates in 2011, I do not believe law has much to do with it.

On another note, laws can be bypassed, bent and outright broken. EB3 mexico date movement (or lack thereof) and "Quarterly Spillovers That Don't Occur" are excelent examples.

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Here is MurthyLawFirms take on October VB...

"Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485 cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is utilized), the DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed. This is the reason the dates for India and China advanced by three months at the start of FY12. Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward. "

India and China should encourage the immigration to the western countries. The long wait can't stop us!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Monica12

I think the concept is.... India and China are way too populated.... let's kill these guys slowly :mad:
Gosh! I think I'm actually getting bitter :o tsk..tsk..Not good!
Ok..note to self........ chant 100 times everyday " aaya to aaya baaki sab maya"

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My date is 1/20/2008. Good luck to both of us!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by gc_usa

My date is Jan 8th 2008. I am really scared since date sometime stops at 8 and you can't file if you are not earlier than 8.

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It's very confusing. "When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

what is the supply number? the Oct.VB already exceeds our annual quota of 2800, right?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
The move is in line with what you and spec debated for some time.....post#6895 (page 276)




Here is MurthyLawFirms take on October VB...

"Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485 cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is utilized), the DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed. This is the reason the dates for India and China advanced by three months at the start of FY12. Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward. "

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I have the same feeling! I am so axious to check every EB immigration website for info. I check this forum and mitbbs 20 times per day in some days. I hope you can green soon!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Reader

My date is 10th December 2007. One day it gives me a feeling that I will be able to make it in FY 2012 and the very next day it feels like it is not possible. Gosh, the trend is so oscillating.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

It's very confusing. "When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

what is the supply number? the Oct.VB already exceeds our annual quota of 2800, right?

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qblogfan,
That's true, my understanding from the attorney's take on October VB is that USCIS/DOS can build the "pipeline" by advancing dates but only issue VISA numbers allowed by law!

Veni, this line from murthy concerns me, not sure what they mean. If this is true then further movement would only occur in Q3/Q4, if they mean GC by approval, or if they mean eligible to appear in demand data, that also would take 3 months at least:
"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. "

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
The move is in line with what you and spec debated for some time.....post#6895 (page 276)




Here is MurthyLawFirms take on October VB...

"Essentially, mid-August 2007 was as good as things ever got for EB2 India and China. The cutoff dates again are approaching this point, and many I-485s for EB2 India and China have been approved in the past few months. Thus, the anticipated demand is low enough that the universe of pending I-485 cases eligible for approval can be expanded, allowing for additional case filings. Since there is a lag between the filing of an I-485 and adjudication of the case (at which time the visa number is utilized), the DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed. This is the reason the dates for India and China advanced by three months at the start of FY12. Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward. "

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

Veni, this line from murthy concerns me, not sure what they mean. If this is true then further movement would only occur in Q3/Q4, if they mean GC by approval, or if they mean eligible to appear in demand data, that also would take 3 months at least:
"Any further movement of the priority dates (PDs) will depend upon whether the new filings are approved quickly. "

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Nishant,
That will happen after "DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed".

I don't think USCIS/DOS will see substantial EB2IC filings with October move? do you?

,

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

It's very confusing. "When the demand meets or exceeds the visa number supply, the cutoff date movement will slow, stop, or potentially even move backward"

what is the supply number? the Oct.VB already exceeds our annual quota of 2800, right?

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hey brother from other mother....what's the talk on mitbbs???

Hi All, In a real pickle here :-( ...my PD is Sept 06 (NSC, India, EB2) and current since 1st June. Out of sheer stupidity, unrealistic optimism, and news of the flood of people receiving their GCs, I waited till 2 months before EAD expiration to file for EAD renewal for myself and spouse. So my EAD expires at the end of this month (just 2 weeks away) and my company has been sending reminder emails for the new EAD (last time - 2 yrs ago - badmashaan never cared). Contacted congressman's staff, they got no response from USCIS. Created SR at USCIS for EAD expedite (forwarded them company letter about jeopardized employment), still waiting to hear back from them. To rub salt on wounds, folks from PD of March/April of 2007 are being given GCs. Anxiety killing me.

Is there any sliver of hope I can cling to? Will appreciate any suggestions. Heck even funny uplifting poetry would do. Here's one I heard:

Qismat mey 'gar likha ho pait mey injection lena,
Toe Oont pe baithke nikle bhi toe kutta ek din kaatinga.
[If it is destined in your fate to receive injections in tummy (or not receive GC/EAD),
Then even if you ride high on a camel (or create SR, contact congressman), a dog will eventually manage to bite you (no GC/EAD)]

Nope, don't think so. Thank you Veni.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by veni001

Nishant,
That will happen after "DOS is temporarily advancing the cutoff dates to allow a fairly large number of I-485 cases to be filed".

I don't think USCIS/DOS will see substantial EB2IC filings with October move? do you?

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muntazir how about infopass to know what's going on with your case?

Can an extension of EAD save you from jeopardizing your employment?

I would also recommend keeping a record of all communication ... so that if you lose your employment because of these delays and choose to sue USCIS then you have something to show.

Really sorry to hear your case. Did you contact IV too ... just in case?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by muntazir

Hi All, In a real pickle here :-( ...my PD is Sept 06 (NSC, India, EB2) and current since 1st June. Out of sheer stupidity, unrealistic optimism, and news of the flood of people receiving their GCs, I waited till 2 months before EAD expiration to file for EAD renewal for myself and spouse. So my EAD expires at the end of this month (just 2 weeks away) and my company has been sending reminder emails for the new EAD (last time - 2 yrs ago - badmashaan never cared). Contacted congressman's staff, they got no response from USCIS. Created SR at USCIS for EAD expedite (forwarded them company letter about jeopardized employment), still waiting to hear back from them. To rub salt on wounds, folks from PD of March/April of 2007 are being given GCs. Anxiety killing me.

Is there any sliver of hope I can cling to? Will appreciate any suggestions. Heck even funny uplifting poetry would do. Here's one I heard:

Qismat mey 'gar likha ho pait mey injection lena,
Toe Oont pe baithke nikle bhi toe kutta ek din kaatinga.
[If it is destined in your fate to receive injections in tummy (or not receive GC/EAD),
Then even if you ride high on a camel (or create SR, contact congressman), a dog will eventually manage to bite you (no GC/EAD)]

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nothing new on mitbbs. NIU is pusing the 27% spillover and we hope Mr.CO can approve EB2 C&I in each quarter, not just in the summer.

People are mad and frustrated.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by soggadu

,

hey brother from other mother....what's the talk on mitbbs???

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I don't know whether gurus have posted the new statistics of PERM. Last year there were 28000 non-India/China PERM filed in the first nine months.

We can make an estimation of the demand from ROW. South Korea has a higher demand than China, but they have no retrogression at all.

Department of Labor made decisions on 59,459 labor certificates for green
card during the first 9 months of FY2011: 9,316 were denied and 2,238 were
withdrawn. Following are the top countries, jobs and employers in Business &
Finance (update career profile to get customized visa job solution):

2011 Top Green Card Countries
1India28,363
2South Korea3,360
3China3,245
4Mexico3,237
5Canada2,767
6Philippines2,310
7Pakistan893
8Japan871
9United Kingdom834
Green Card for Workers From Your Country


2011 Top Green Card Occupations in Business & Finance
1Financial Analysts921
2Accountants659
3Management Analysts527
4Accountants and Auditors266
5Auditors238
6Logisticians161
7Wholesale and Retail Buyers, Except Farm Products79
8Credit Analysts73
9Cost Estimators70
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2011 Top Green Card Employers in Business & Finance
1Ernst & Young U.S. Llp1,035
2Deloitte & Touche Llp633
3Ibm Corporation470
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6Goldman, Sachs & Co.217
7Deloitte Tax Llp191
8Pricewaterhousecoopers, Llp182
9Jpmorgan Chase & Co.162
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