EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by greenjpr

Hello Gurus,
My PD is June-2010 [missed my JAN-2009 PERM since I did not file I140]. I am with the same employer for the past 9+ yrs. When I checked with my attorney, she mentioned that I need to file new PERM. I was told that if we downgrade using old PERM during GC interview, they might give us trouble. Is this a valid risk to consider? Missed so many managerial positions due to GC. Getting EAD will help me to join full time with a good destination. I dont bother about GC as I lost hope.

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I assume you are EB2- June 2010. I would say if the attorney is pointing out to you something, she is making you aware of the risks. I would recommend to take a second opinion. There would be lot of people ready to offer advise, but every case is unique and it might give you some insights

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Originally Posted by greenjpr

Hello Gurus,
My PD is June-2010 [missed my JAN-2009 PERM since I did not file I140]. I am with the same employer for the past 9+ yrs. When I checked with my attorney, she mentioned that I need to file new PERM. I was told that if we downgrade using old PERM during GC interview, they might give us trouble. Is this a valid risk to consider? Missed so many managerial positions due to GC. Getting EAD will help me to join full time with a good destination. I dont bother about GC as I lost hope.

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If everything is above board (Maintenance of Status), then I don't see any risk. Lady luck favors the brave!

We guys sure have some patience making these grandiose 2-3-4 year plans. In reality, we are all so done in.
Solution, as I have said before, is just EB1A / EB1B / EB1C.

Ohh I just realized I became a Sensei from a Sophomore ! Congratulations to me !

Do anyone have latest Perm approval for January 2019 ?

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Originally Posted by texas_

Do anyone have latest Perm approval for January 2019 ?

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There's been 4,820 certifications in January so far (1-28).

Gurus

Need your opinions.

1. My current employer initially applied in EB3 with April 2010 PD.
2. I did my Masters and was promoted.
3. Upgraded to EB2.

Please provide me your inputs

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Originally Posted by AceMan

The downporters before May 2010, you are calculating already had a prior EB3 petition. That's why, I don't see them as an impact. Post May 2010, your numbers will start showing up. Hence, I said May 2010 for FY 19.

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This is not completely true. Before May 2010, there were genuine EB2 applications, Most of those who were porting from EB3 were with dates 2008 and prior. I would say a majority of EB2 people in queue today are the original EB2 filers. Some of them are downporting to EB3 by starting a fresh EB3 application

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Originally Posted by msbmsb

This is not completely true. Before May 2010, there were genuine EB2 applications, Most of those who were porting from EB3 were with dates 2008 and prior. I would say a majority of EB2 people in queue today are the original EB2 filers. Some of them are downporting to EB3 by starting a fresh EB3 application

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You have to read the message in the context of the post for which I responded. The original EB2 filers from May 2009 to April 2010 had the ability to file for their AOS and barring a few unlucky people almost all would have done that in 2012. Their number shows up the demand data as around 14000. Almost all of them in the demand data list are original Eb2 filers. The chance of these people downgrading; very less to make an impact for FY 2019.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

There's been 4,820 certifications in January so far (1-28).

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Thanks Spec. The number seems low for January and December 2018
Isn't it ?

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Originally Posted by AceMan

You have to read the message in the context of the post for which I responded. The original EB2 filers from May 2009 to April 2010 had the ability to file for their AOS and barring a few unlucky people almost all would have done that in 2012. Their number shows up the demand data as around 14000. Almost all of them in the demand data list are original Eb2 filers. The chance of these people downgrading; very less to make an impact for FY 2019.

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Why, may I ask Aceman?

Isn't downgrade a simple ask of concurrent filing in premium? Yes not all will be able to do it due to lack of employer support, and not all will like the idea of the interview? But won't there be a good percentage which would rather do it and get in 4-5 months rather than wait 2-3 years?

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

Why, may I ask Aceman?

Isn't downgrade a simple ask of concurrent filing in premium? Yes not all will be able to do it due to lack of employer support, and not all will like the idea of the interview? But won't there be a good percentage which would rather do it and get in 4-5 months rather than wait 2-3 years?

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You are talking about people who have extreme perseverance and waiting for 9 years. They would simply wait out 2-3 years and get their GC without doing anything funny. And they are assured no one is going to upgrade to EB2 before them anymore like earlier. Any spill overs they will get it even faster.

4-5 months is an extremely optimistic number. Premium is if your service center is the same as previous. Otherwise no premium, and it takes 6 months minimum, with any queries add the necessary time frame, along with the chance of dates retrogression.

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Originally Posted by AceMan

You are talking about people who have extreme perseverance and waiting for 9 years. They would simply wait out 2-3 years and get their GC without doing anything funny. And they are assured no one is going to upgrade to EB2 before them anymore like earlier. Any spill overs they will get it even faster.

4-5 months is an extremely optimistic number. Premium is if your service center is the same as previous. Otherwise no premium, and it takes 6 months minimum, with any queries add the necessary time frame, along with the chance of dates retrogression.

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This. I agree with AceMan. I am Feb 2010 EB-2 and am not even planning to ask my company lawyer about downgrade. I work for a big company and just to file a perm app, it takes 1 year for my company. so it is not worth it. only hope is spill over... lots of spill over...

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Originally Posted by AceMan

You are talking about people who have extreme perseverance and waiting for 9 years. They would simply wait out 2-3 years and get their GC without doing anything funny. And they are assured no one is going to upgrade to EB2 before them anymore like earlier. Any spill overs they will get it even faster.

4-5 months is an extremely optimistic number. Premium is if your service center is the same as previous. Otherwise no premium, and it takes 6 months minimum, with any queries add the necessary time frame, along with the chance of dates retrogression.

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hmm, lets hope you are right. Though trackitt is suggesting otherwise.

Also replace 'extreme perseverance' with 'no choice'. :)

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Originally Posted by mcmilers

This. I agree with AceMan. I am Feb 2010 EB-2 and am not even planning to ask my company lawyer about downgrade. I work for a big company and just to file a perm app, it takes 1 year for my company. so it is not worth it. only hope is spill over... lots of spill over...

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Same boat here brother, in 5th month awaiting just prevailing wage notification. 1 year for PERM app is actually not bad given where I stand.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

hmm, lets hope you are right. Though trackitt is suggesting otherwise.

Also replace 'extreme perseverance' with 'no choice'. :)

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True. Trackit is flooded with people trying to downgrade. Desis are a strange crowd. They will take any route to get GCs

Cannot blame Desis or anyone. Chinese did it when they had that option. I think it is basic human behavior. You always try to find the shortest and easiest path.

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Originally Posted by excalibur123

hmm, lets hope you are right. Though trackitt is suggesting otherwise.

Also replace 'extreme perseverance' with 'no choice'. :)

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Trackitt doesn’t have a single person downgraded who have EAD. I think what Aceman is saying is anyone who have EAD will not downgrade. And I agree with him

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Originally Posted by mcmilers

Cannot blame Desis or anyone. Chinese did it when they had that option. I think it is basic human behavior. You always try to find the shortest and easiest path.

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The usage of word short or shorter or shortest would be a mockery here unless that means 18 years, 14 years and 9 years in our cases. :)

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Originally Posted by iatiam

True. Trackit is flooded with people trying to downgrade. Desis are a strange crowd. They will take any route to get GCs

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This is a strange comment, Desis wait for over a decade to get their green cards, they are not taking any route. All they want is to get it and move on with their lives. After being here for more than 17 years and still not greened, I can certainly empathize will all those folks before me and after me in the long and never ending line. Good luck to everyone.

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Originally Posted by EB32010

Trackitt doesn’t have a single person downgraded who have EAD. I think what Aceman is saying is anyone who have EAD will not downgrade. And I agree with him

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I still do not agree with Aceman's theory, people will eventually start downgrading to EB3, it is not much of hassle if you are with the same company who has filed the EB2 perm & I 140. Also some of them are just playing the waiting game. I would think if EB3 moves significantly forward than EB2, downgrades will happen. People want closure of this GC process and if they can see a finish line, there will some folks willing to take a risk. My 2 cents.

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Originally Posted by shekhar_kuruk

I still do not agree with Aceman's theory, people will eventually start downgrading to EB3, it is not much of hassle if you are with the same company who has filed the EB2 perm & I 140. Also some of them are just playing the waiting game. I would think if EB3 moves significantly forward than EB2, downgrades will happen. People want closure of this GC process and if they can see a finish line, there will some folks willing to take a risk. My 2 cents.

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The risk of someone who have EAD to downgrade far outweighs the benefit of just staying put in line. If you just stay put, all you have to do is file medicals and Supp J and your GC will come in mail once you become current.

There may be people like me as well. I have March 2010 PD with AOS pending since 2012 and I haven't even thought of downgrading to EB3 at all. I would like to wait to get through in EB2 only and hoping some or more of EB2 with AOS pending will downgrade and my priority date would become current sooner than later.

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Originally Posted by shekhar_kuruk

I still do not agree with Aceman's theory, people will eventually start downgrading to EB3, it is not much of hassle if you are with the same company who has filed the EB2 perm & I 140. Also some of them are just playing the waiting game. I would think if EB3 moves significantly forward than EB2, downgrades will happen. People want closure of this GC process and if they can see a finish line, there will some folks willing to take a risk. My 2 cents.

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I said the downgrades are not going to impact Eb3 movement for FY19. Only when Eb3 dates move past May2010, we can see real impact downgrading.
Earliest that can happen would be Jan 2020 bulletin.

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Originally Posted by EB32010

The risk of someone who have EAD to downgrade far outweighs the benefit of just staying put in line. If you just stay put, all you have to do is file medicals and Supp J and your GC will come in mail once you become current.

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It is not as simple as that, let me put it this way; this is just a theory. Some people will be willing to take the risk. The percentage of people of doing this is debatable. If you suggesting this value will be close to 0, I am just disagreeing with that arbitrary number.

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Originally Posted by bluelabel

There may be people like me as well. I have March 2010 PD with AOS pending since 2012 and I haven't even thought of downgrading to EB3 at all. I would like to wait to get through in EB2 only and hoping some or more of EB2 with AOS pending will downgrade and my priority date would become current sooner than later.

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My priority date is only two months away, but there is so much uncertainty about the finish line, it could happen this year or may be next year. I would suggest you give downgrading a serious thought and talk to your attorney. In the end it is your GC, just saying.