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Originally Posted by evoori
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india address...
Quote:
Originally Posted by evoori
Thanks Don. I think what you say is highly probable. I am still puzzled with the early but small movement. This movement actually didn't give them any new 485 other than PWMB which probably will be 2K max in the time horizon they are looking at. So another movement in November is highly likely in my opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by donvar
Source : http://www.immigration-law.com/
" FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011
AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS. "
The following news appeared in Oh law firm today:
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09/15/2011: FY 2011 Employment-Based Visa Numbers Exhausted as of 09/15/2011 and No EB Visa Number Will be Authorized to USCIS Until 10/03/2011
AILA has reported that the State Department notified today the USCIS that no EB visa numbers would be authorized effective today because all the FY-2011 Employment Based visa numbers have been exhausted. The visa numbers will thus start being authorized beginning from 10/03/2011, the first business day of October when the October Visa Bulletin visa cut-off takes effect. Accordingly, the USCIS office will not be able to ask the EB visa number authorization to the State Deparment from today and until October 3, 2011. They will start authorizing visa number request by the USCIS offices beginning from October 3, 2011 covering all the eligible cases which had been entered into the pending Demand from 09/15/2011 through 09/30/2011 and those within the October cut-off date.
What does this mean? Those EB cases which could have been completed adjudicated and approved during the next 15 days (the pending Demand data for the FY 2011 between 09/15/2011 and 09/30/2011) will experience a little bit of delay in obtaining visa number allocation for them until after October 1, 2011. There is no information available about what the September 2011 EB 485 Demand Data was transmittted to the Visa Services by the USCIS.
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If this is true (not sure, how reliable this lawyer is), then any new I485 approvals from 1st Oct will be from 2012 quota. So, this makes the 3 month forward movement even more surprising, though it's a pleasant surprise to many of us. From CO's visa bulletin notes, there was an indication that he is trying to build up a buffer. So, instead of a large BTM, we have might have forward movement in bursts before there is any probable retrogression. I am in agreement with Q's feedback on possibility of further movement in Nov bulletin as the 3 month movement in Oct will only create 2K additional PWMB cases. Maybe, CO is trying to emulate the FB trend from last year, but this is just a will guess from my side.
Yes, I completely agree...future VBs should show more movement. It just doesn't make sense that they want to build demand ( as stated in Oct VB) when they will get only 2-2.5 K new cases in Oct. That no. is just not enough to build additional pipeline...Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Gurus,
I was thinking seriously about this and somehow i feel that CO is preparing IC for a quarterly spillover. Move IC a little bit and after 3 months spill over visas if available. Just a thought.
Q here are the exact figures.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
EB2 ROW - AUG 2011 :: 70
EB2 ROW - AUG 2010 :: 44
EB2 ROW - SEP 2011 :: 20 (Till Date)
EB2 ROW - SEP 2010 :: 18
EB1 - AUG 2011 :: 8 + 12 + 21 = 41
EB1 - AUG 2010 :: 8 + 6 + 8 = 22
EB1 - SEP 2011 :: 1 + 2 = 3 (Till Date)
EB1 - SEP 2010 :: 3 + 7 + 4 = 14
For the month of Aug both EB2 ROW and EB1 have clocked significantly higher. EB2 ROW seems to be going well even in September its slightly above last year. EB1 in September seems to be dull. Another point to note is that EB2 India is just 11, normally they would white wash during a regular spillover season, out of these 4 are PWMB cases. So looks like the agencies have done a good job in cleaning up cases that were actually current by the Aug and September bulletins. Very few people are complaining about not being approved when current. So I feel Oct bulletins movement is out of 2012's cap, 2011 is done, maybe the excess usage in Aug was the reason for no movement in September but all this coincides with the high rate of I140 approvals.
Yes they have been making this announcement atleast since 2 years but this year it has come really early.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Hi Teddy,
I personally know two cases which became current in June and have still not received there GC in EB2. They have not received any RFE and both have an approved I140. So seems like they have slowed down on EB2 and probably they are out of numbers ad may assign a visa number to them in October since visas have exhausted.
Also when you say OCT visa bulletin is out of 2010's does that mean they can use the visas from the prior years. Please clarify
Thanks
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Teddy
So yes ... I was referring to EB1. It doesn't show required acceleration in September. And so am wondering where have teh visas gone.
Regarding EB2I I think substantial number of people who are in inventory have probably gone back. Just look at trackitt .... of the 1000 or so EB2I unapproved cases, only 30 or so were upadted since Jan 2011. If I were so close to getting GC, why wouldn't be curious about my case? The only thing I can think of is a lot of those cases are of people who probably have gone back. That would be 6K or more. And may be that is why the date moved in Oct? Again don't know for sure .... just a thought.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Guys, if DOS move's the dates slowly, over a period of time to collect new applications then what does visa bulletin mean for people who have already applied 485? Don't you think VB will give people an impression that visas are available? Poor Janata will start contacting USCIS/Congressmen thinking that their dates are current and will be eager to find out status....
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Based on FACTS AND DATA and EB-485 inventories since 2010, i don't think it will be any closer to 6k number!
Not having updates on trackitt does not always mean less approvals or application abandoned!.
Veni
Then what explains why these people are so close to getting GC, had at some point of time bothered to create a trackitt account but then gave up tracking these cases since Jan 2011.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Family Guy
I was thinking abt this concept yesterday itself. Atleast 75% are not familiar with the words retrogression, demand pipeline , pre-adjudication etc.
I had a thought of one year movement in the next bulletin, but I am afraid to speak out as our friends with 07 PDs are so anxious. With this concept in mind , I am eagerly searching for FB intake numbers in 2010 , to find how far they can stretch their pipeline .
I agree with you - I think moment will be big for only one month followed by retrogression...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Fiscal Year Total EB-5 Visas Issued
FY11 YTD* 3,706
FY10 1,885
FY09 4,218
FY08 1,360
FY07 806
FY06 744
FY05 158
*Estimate of FY11 Visas Issued YTD, reported by the Department of State as of 09/12/2011.
From USCIS website: http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Then open the powerpoint and see slide # 13.
Family guy, I have been wondering the same thing..Is the movement in Oct VB (and hopefully the next few VBs), to just create new demand or if Q's theory is correct and there will actually be visas available for people who have already filed?Quote:
Originally Posted by familyguy
The rate of approvals in first 2 weeks of Oct will hold key to that...very anxious now to see what will happen!
Monica
I don't have any theory right now. I am just as much puzzled and just throwing various thoughts out there.
KD - thanks for the data. That explains partially why even if EB1 doesn't surge enough in September the visas won't be wasted. So with this piece of data, its quite clear that the date movement for next year is actually meant for next year's quota.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
wow ssvp... u have to rsvp a ticket to india soon...Quote:
Originally Posted by ssvp22
Yes..I understand Q bhai.. I'm just as perplexed as everyone here :)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
but I like your thoughts :)
Just curious.. if a person with pre-adjudicated 485 has left USA... will a GC be issued to him once his PD gets current? If yes.. that GC is wasted right? if no.. how will the USCIS know that they should not issue the GC since the person has left USA.
I ask because, there is no need for the person to contact USCIS when his PD is current since he had already applied for 485.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q, I believe that USCIS completed most of their Job in Aug that is why too little left for September, they have clocked almost double in Aug. Coming to Trackitt yes the case abandonment is higher than earlier, however if someone is waiting and no change in the case status apparent then there is nothing to update as well. People may have gone back especially in 2008 but that number is probably not that large to impact the post Jul 2007 inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
If they choose to release only 250 numbers in Oct then the probability of approval is 250 / 6000 i.e. 1 in 24 or 1 in 8 if they release 750. So really it will require a good deal of luck to get approved in October if one is current. The trend can be better if they decide to release more numbers or if the officers are given a free hand in approving all cases (Which seems unlikely). All the best to you and everyone who is current, may you all be amongst the lucky ones.Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
There are some cases wherein people get their GC after leaving, they would give their friends address or in some cases convert to CP and then attend interview. I have read about cases belonging to the category when people get their GC after going back they don't withdraw their 485, not sure how legally tenable this is. CP cases are fine as long at the employer provides the EVL.Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
Its possible that people give friends' address and receive GC after they move to India. Or USCIS issues GC and the GC is returned to them. In either case a visa number is wasted. Theoretically USCIS can reassign those numbers ... but I would doubt that they do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda
This is trackitt update we aer talking where people just need to click on the email to update timestamp. I was talking about people pripr to 2007 Jul. But yes its possible that some people after Jul 2007 also might have gone back.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
This possibilit didn't hit me hard until I saw the trackitt data. Yes its possible people may not have updated trackitt even after getting GC and secondly they might have simply left. Don't know which is what and which is truly pending.
This is good info, so we actually had just 6K SOFAD from EB5 so looks like those efforts are working.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Thanks, so there are indeed people who are current waiting for visa's. I made a typo intended to say that Oct 2011 bulletin is from 2012 cap.Quote:
Originally Posted by RRRRRR
interesting...less number of EB5's when business is good in US and more numbers issued when things are bad...Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Damn! will need all the luck in the world now....Only hope is they don't pick cases randomly to approve but rather pick cases by PD.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Q, Trackitt has been good on the approvals trend mainly, on the backlog it has not been reliable. I have seen the abandonment rates go up over the years. The chances of older cases being abandoned is higher, most people create their Id's itself when they are close to being current or are actually current this is especially true for EB2 ROW and EB1. For EB2-I and C too much time has elapsed. We have to find some kind of way to estimate how many people have gone back, maybe the agencies also do not have a handle on this that is why they are doing an intake in small steps and only the 485 data can be considered reliable.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q, I happen to know of a few cases on IV & Trackitt, this is true, and people have asked questions whether they will have any issues in re-entering. Also I happen to know of a case of one of my client managers, he had actually been laid off by his sponsoring employer, came to India to join this client and was then greened and went back. This client gave him a world tour at their expense to train him as he was supposed to be a global service delivery manager and he left them soon after to come back to US on his GC, not sure whether he joined his sponsor or went elsewhere, there is little scrutiny after GC, those were the good days around 2003 if I remember correctly.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
When cut-off dates are severely retrogressed more people register/follow/track the trends!
EB2I was current up until September 2005 and then dates retrogresses as far back as Nov-'99 in October 2005 to "C" in July 2007.
At least for the last couple of years there is some clarity(mostly due to the transparency with demand & usage) . So not very many people are caring to track/update their cases?
Just my thoughts!
Q,
Why are we only dependent on Trackitt for EB1 and EB2 ROW usage? Do we have any other source? We also admit CO and team gave us a agenda for discussion. In all this speculation one good thing is happened PWMB's are getting chance to file 485. Let them move the dates back and forth in small chunks. It happened in the past. It shouldn't be like a one that happened in July 07 because it was a mess. Immediate target is 485/EAD..GC tu abhi dur hai..and as Sogaddu (sorry, if I misspelled the name) bhayee said aaya tu aaya baki sab maya..:o
Kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
As usual good find.
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
EB5 spillover ~6K, lowest in last 6 years.
Unless I-526 receipts come down can expect similar usage for FY2012.
Situation - My visa is up for renewal in May 2012 and my PD is 4/3/2009. What if visa is not renewed for any reason, if my company continues to sponsor me for the greencard, can i do a CP? When do you indicate an AOS or CP? Has my lawyer already done it during labor filling or I-140?
"- ye GC nahin asaan, itna to samajh li je... ek phenyl ki goli hai aur choos ke khaana hai."
LOL ! This is too funny, Nishant.....
Monica ... frankly, i found it annoying for the user community here ... so i just removed it..... my wife liked this phrase in context of marriage, that's when i replaced "marriage" with "GC".
hmm... on a funnier note... you find it apt for your GC wait and your wife on marriage :-) :-) Jai Ho...take it on a lighter note...Quote:
Originally Posted by Nishant_imt
N Imt... i will tell you my scenario and my thought process... My current H1B expires on Oct 1 2011...my PD is 2007 Oct... So i applied for H1b 6 months earlier in premium processing so that if any issues i can clear them or get transfer to other company and pursue H1 and eventually GC process by retaining PD... I also thought the worst case scenario is to ask my lawyer to request for CP ( as during my 140 i didnt opt for it) and leave country before taking all the letters from employer... fortunately H1B got cleared for 3 more years... So i wish you all the best...Quote:
Originally Posted by Nishant_imt
Yes if your company can sponsor, you can go for CP and it is optional at 140 stage but i guess you can invoke it anytime after 140 and before 485 and it takes 6 months for your case to transfer to NVC ...
Prabhu.... 6 mahine se aapke comments padke apna mood theek kar raha hun.... aur aaj to aapne "woh maraa paapad waale ko". Yes, with my foul mood because of the GC thing all the time, my wife finds it hard to deal with me... so you guessed it right ..... hahahaha.... i am kidding... frankly, aapke waali baat... aaya to aaya, baaki sab maaya.
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu