EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Hopefully in just a few weeks, an Immigration Bill gets passed and that will change all the parameters of the predictions :rolleyes:

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We had the story running from 2011 with HR 3012 all the way up to HR 392 in 2017. I am more keen to observe the Eb3 movement over the next 8-9 months, than these London bridge sellers.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

I posted links in the Bills, Rules and Politics section..

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I would not consider anything happening on immigration reform front anytime shortly, especially related to country cap.

Unfortunately people have completely misused the EB1 category. Due to that most of our backlog pains have come. If EB1 misuse can be fixed, it will relieve some pain

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Originally Posted by AceMan

We had the story running from 2011 with HR 3012 all the way up to HR 392 in 2017. I am more keen to observe the Eb3 movement over the next 8-9 months, than these London bridge sellers.

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If EB3 had to retrogress at some point due to heavy downgrade volume's as per CO's check ( https://www.murthy.com/2019/01/24/fe...ndia-movement/ ) to what dates will EB3 retrogress to?

The recommendation from my attorney for my PD in May 2010 was simple. If FAD for EB3 gets there this year per the 3 month movement per VB estimate laid out in the most recent bulletin, we will file EB3 I-140/I-485. If not, no action.

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Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi

All of us are making speculations here with some assumptions. The key issue is for the people from EB2 to EB3 (India) is whether to downgrade or not and if yes, when.

-I think for people who already have EAD and are in upto May 2010 bucket, they have to be very careful - If they stay in line, its a 2 to 2.5 year wait. For people until Dec 2009, it could be a 1 to 1.5 year wait, so its individual opinion, how he views risk versus reward. Based on my discussions with several individuals, most of them are not doing or getting recommendation to not do

- The real test is for people from May 2010 onward, who want to jump the boat. Here it has to be a cautious approach. Between May 2010 and July 2010, will be the people who benefits the most. After that it should be wait and watch until FAD becomes current. Remember the CO has said that if lot of people jump, EB2 can have favorable date and also he doesn't see the dates for both the categories having significant date

I know a lot of people here are anxious, but take a calculated approach and adopt the wait and watch approach, especially after July 2010. Because any significant downgrade might clog the EB3 line and you don't want to jump back to EB2 again. CO is expecting a ton of them jumping the boat and this might create a favorable situation for EB2

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My PD is mid July EB3. I am anxious to see when my PD will reach FAD. I am hoping (more like a wish:)) I will get GC in my hand on Jan 2021.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

The recommendation from my attorney for my PD in May 2010 was simple. If FAD for EB3 gets there this year per the 3 month movement per VB estimate laid out in the most recent bulletin, we will file EB3 I-140/I-485. If not, no action.

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Even though prediction said 3 months per bulletin until May, I dont think it will happen. IMO, the big push will come in July. I am anxious to see the July bulletin. Whoever is planning to downgrade (Jan 2010 and beyond) need to wait until July bulletin and wait for CO check-in after that.

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Even though prediction said 3 months per bulletin until May, I dont think it will happen

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IMO, another way to look at is that, CO's prediction includes some "downgrades" (as CO keeps talking about it). And the downgrades may simply not happen this FY. So, you may again end up helping EB3-China with some spillover of unused EB3-I GCs (like last year).

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Originally Posted by AceMan

We had the story running from 2011 with HR 3012 all the way up to HR 392 in 2017. I am more keen to observe the Eb3 movement over the next 8-9 months, than these London bridge sellers.

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You maybe right. But I am optimistic about the Immigration Bill being passed. Simple reason, Republicans will get panned if they agree to just the DACA+TPS concessions without getting some Legal Immigration based concessions for a piece of the wall.

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Originally Posted by rocketfast

IMO, another way to look at is that, CO's prediction includes some "downgrades" (as CO keeps talking about it). And the downgrades may simply not happen this FY. So, you may again end up helping EB3-China with some spillover of unused EB3-I GCs (like last year).

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Any 'downgrades' would have to have already happened by now if they are to be counted in this FY Quota. I have always found fault with CO for not doing his math right. He is the reason EB3I have lost a ton of visas over the previous few years to EB2.

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Originally Posted by swaugh

That is pretty harsh. I believed the same as "EB22010Dec", if you think that is not true then please provide more evidence and share the correct information.

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If you have filed your 485 after March 2017, you will need to have an interview for sure. For other cases, it is not required. USCIS has clarified this with a memo. The burden of proof in not on me, but on those people who are spreading rumors to dissuade others from downgrading.

Iatiam

My bad, perhaps I was too harsh.

I am seeing this being circulated everywhere with no proof so I lost it

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

You maybe right. But I am optimistic about the Immigration Bill being passed. Simple reason, Republicans will get panned if they agree to just the DACA+TPS concessions without getting some Legal Immigration based concessions for a piece of the wall.

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Sorry, this is pipe dream and will not happen anything shortly. We should live in a world where we know this are political rhetoric, infact DACA/TPS can happen but unfortunately anything like happening similar to 392 are slim to none

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

The recommendation from my attorney for my PD in May 2010 was simple. If FAD for EB3 gets there this year per the 3 month movement per VB estimate laid out in the most recent bulletin, we will file EB3 I-140/I-485. If not, no action.

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I think that's logical, I know everyone wants to jump the line immediately. The safest way is to wait till FAD becomes current. Remember the environment when upgrades was very different. Last couple of years with some many new policies and uncertainty created, you have to play very careful. You don't want to risk things.

Lot of people are encouraging here to downgrade ASAP, considering the environment we are, make sure you take a calculated risk

I think if its 2010 July EB3, you can easily assume to would get that, may be earlier than that

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Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi

Sorry, this is pipe dream and will not happen anything shortly. We should live in a world where we know this are political rhetoric, infact DACA/TPS can happen but unfortunately anything like happening similar to 392 are slim to none

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We got close on a couple of occasions. I see no reason to not become law this time around.

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Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi

I think that's logical, I know everyone wants to jump the line immediately. The safest way is to wait till FAD becomes current. Remember the environment when upgrades was very different. Last couple of years with some many new policies and uncertainty created, you have to play very careful. You don't want to risk things.

Lot of people are encouraging here to downgrade ASAP, considering the environment we are, make sure you take a calculated risk

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For anyone who has an EAD in EB2-I and have a PD before May 2010 and had filed for their AOS before Mar 2017 then I would suggest they hang in there tight and don't fall into the trap of jumping the queue.
If you don't have an EAD then please look at the progress of the future visa bulletins and downgrade when you get a chance.

Many people are underestimating the impact of personal interviews. The wait time for interviews at most field offices across the country is between 8 and 22 months. Based on the response in various forums it is taking more than a year for an interview date after your date becomes current and this wait time is only going to increase with every passing day. Also note we need to compete for a time slot at the field office among so many other categories including family based , Employment based AOS, naturalization interviews and a zillion other things.

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Originally Posted by Ind2009

For anyone who has an EAD in EB2-I and have a PD before May 2010 and had filed for their AOS before Mar 2017 then I would suggest they hang in there tight and don't fall into the trap of jumping the queue.
If you don't have an EAD then please look at the progress of the future visa bulletins and downgrade when you get a chance.

Many people are underestimating the impact of personal interviews. The wait time for interviews at most field offices across the country is between 8 and 22 months. Based on the response in various forums it is taking more than a year for an interview date after your date becomes current and this wait time is only going to increase with every passing day. Also note we need to compete for a time slot at the field office among so many other categories including family based , Employment based AOS, naturalization interviews and a zillion other things.

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Any links to the forums with information about the Interviews taking that long? I know a friend who got scheduled within 6 months of filing for AOS.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

Any links to the forums with information about the Interviews taking that long? I know a friend who got scheduled within 6 months of filing for AOS.

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There could be exceptions based on the location. You can also check Trackitt based on each month filing (not sure how many of them keep the status up to date)
My personal experience is based on my team mate who had filed for AOS in April 2017 had his interview in Dec 2018 at Lawrence, MA field office.

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Originally Posted by Ind2009

There could be exceptions based on the location. You can also check Trackitt based on each month filing (not sure how many of them keep the status up to date)
My personal experience is based on my team mate who had filed for AOS in April 2017 had his interview in Dec 2018 at Lawrence, MA field office.

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That is exceptionally long time for sure. My friend had filed in April 2018 and he got interview in October 2018 and card in Nov 2018.

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

That is exceptionally long time for sure. My friend had filed in April 2018 and he got interview in October 2018 and card in Nov 2018.

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Its hard to tell what is an exception.
I will be able to update my own case as it unfolds over the next few months / years.
My PD is Mar 2009 EB3 India got a chance to file AOS for the first time last month as I choose not to jump to to EB2 when I had a chance in 2011.
I don't expect so see my EAD / AP before July and my H1 Extension is still pending for a decision.
My FAD will be current from Feb 1st (3 more days) and then the wait begins...............

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Originally Posted by Ind2009

Its hard to tell what is an exception.
I will be able to update my own case as it unfolds over the next few months / years.
My PD is Mar 2009 EB3 India got a chance to file AOS for the first time last month as I choose not to jump to to EB2 when I had a chance in 2011.
I don't expect so see my EAD / AP before July and my H1 Extension is still pending for a decision.
My FAD will be current from Feb 1st (3 more days) and then the wait begins...............

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You should be greened in this FY.

Hi Admin
When will you publish my post? Waiting for it.

Thanks

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Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar

You should be greened in this FY.

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If it happens then it will be a miracle, but my realistic expectation is sometime towards end of 2020 or early 2021.
That is one of the reasons I believe there will be spillover from the EB3 India cases whose interviews would not be possible to schedule this fiscal year and those VISA numbers need to used somewhere.
I will be really happy if it can be used for EB2 India folks that do not require an interview.
I am one of the few who can vouch the importance of EB2 India line moving ahead as it helps to maintain a balance.

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Originally Posted by sanjeevtrivedi

I think if its 2010 July EB3, you can easily assume to would get that, may be earlier than that

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Sorry I didn’t get you.

Hello Gurus,
My PD is June-2010 [missed my JAN-2009 PERM since I did not file I140]. I am with the same employer for the past 9+ yrs. When I checked with my attorney, she mentioned that I need to file new PERM. I was told that if we downgrade using old PERM during GC interview, they might give us trouble. Is this a valid risk to consider? Missed so many managerial positions due to GC. Getting EAD will help me to join full time with a good destination. I dont bother about GC as I lost hope.