EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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09-14-2011, 09:53 PM
soggadu

thanks for the wishes JJ, bieber, 10102007, gcseeker and monica..... Lets hope for the best and leave the rest.....
09-14-2011, 10:17 PM
qblogfan

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

qbf whats your date? I am sorry I forgot.
09-14-2011, 10:20 PM
nayekal

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

I have received quite a few requests for affidavit template.. hence i thought i will attach it here.

Enjoy!

Great!! Thanks
09-14-2011, 10:20 PM
qblogfan

You have a good memory! Yes, my PD is Jan.2008. I got my FOIA documents and it confims I am EB2 and PD Jan 2008. I was suspecting the company was cheating me. I didn't get the I140 approval notice, but I got the I140 application documents and it has 30 pages.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Let's wait for qbf to reply, I think its in January 2008.
09-14-2011, 10:21 PM
dec2007

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.

Qbf, my dateis dec31,2007.
We both will get our dates same time, probably. Best of luck. Keep the hopes alive.
09-14-2011, 10:46 PM
qesehmk

sunil, thanks again. Good compilation. We will copy to FACTS and DATA Section as well for people's reference.

Intuitively, on a fairly large period of time (may be 10 years) yes the dates must move 1 year per year so as not to build backlog! But as gcseeker pointed out 1999 and 2007 were abnormal and so were many more years. Every year is different. My advice is always to look at past year and say what's changed from prior year and then try to predict. (Of course I could be wrong! But that's why I try to do at the start of the year and then adjust as we go.)

Quote:

Originally Posted by indiasunil

Q - Thanks for update.. I am also wondering how the dates are moving on an average nearly ONE YEAR.. Do you think EB1, EB5 & EB2-ROW applications are less OR Spillover is More for these years ? If you take this assumption, the dates should be around March 2008

Fiscal Year: 1992 - Average Movement: -4.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1993 - Average Movement: 28.77 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1994 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1995 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1996 - Average Movement: -14.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1997 - Average Movement: 16.23 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1998 - Average Movement: 17.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 1999 - Average Movement: 40.93 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2000 - Average Movement: -11.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2001 - Average Movement: 23.33 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2002 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2003 - Average Movement: 12.17 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2004 - Average Movement: 12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2005 - Average Movement: -59.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2006 - Average Movement: 31.9 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2007 - Average Movement: 21.87 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2008 - Average Movement: -12.2 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2009 - Average Movement: 22.07 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2010 - Average Movement: 15.7 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2011 - Average Movement: 11.4 month(s)
Fiscal Year: 2012 - Average Movement: 3.03 month(s) so far.

Quote:

Originally Posted by leo07

If I remember correctly, for the for 2010, October data had the yearly quota 147 or 148K with a note about Family spill-over.

Yes. We are talking about next year though. Until we know how much was consumed this year ... its hard to say how much (if any) spillover will be available next year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.

Hey ... there is no sir here. We are all friends! Sorry for forgetting the date. But I know very well your desire to visit back and the pain in not being able to. Given how dates have been moved certainly has increased the odds that Jan 2008 could scrape through next year itself. Lets cross the fingers :)
09-14-2011, 10:57 PM
qblogfan

Thank you for your kind words, my friend!:)

It's 11pm in Houston. Hope you guys will have a good sleep.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

sunil, thanks again. Good compilation. We will copy to FACTS and DATA Section as well for people's reference.

Intuitively, on a fairly large period of time (may be 10 years) yes the dates must move 1 year per year so as not to build backlog! But as gcseeker pointed out 1999 and 2007 were abnormal and so were many more years. Every year is different. My advice is always to look at past year and say what's changed from prior year and then try to predict. (Of course I could be wrong! But that's why I try to do at the start of the year and then adjust as we go.)

Yes. We are talking about next year though. Until we know how much was consumed this year ... its hard to say how much (if any) spillover will be available next year.

Hey ... there is no sir here. We are all friends! Sorry for forgetting the date. But I know very well your desire to visit back and the pain in not being able to. Given how dates have been moved certainly has increased the odds that Jan 2008 could scrape through next year itself. Lets cross the fingers :)
09-14-2011, 10:58 PM
qblogfan

Yes, I hope both of us can get EAD/AP/GC soon! We have waited for almost 4 years.

Quote:

Originally Posted by dec2007

Qbf, my dateis dec31,2007.
We both will get our dates same time, probably. Best of luck. Keep the hopes alive.
09-14-2011, 11:06 PM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

You have a good memory! Yes, my PD is Jan.2008. I got my FOIA documents and it confims I am EB2 and PD Jan 2008. I was suspecting the company was cheating me. I didn't get the I140 approval notice, but I got the I140 application documents and it has 30 pages.

Whew! I'm so glad to know that you are Eb2 ... I was wondering about that.. Good luck, my friend!
09-14-2011, 11:30 PM
RRRRRR

Happy for you that your date is jan 2008 and Eb2. Once again thanks for all your analysis and dedication to this thread. Good Luck.....

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

You have a good memory! Yes, my PD is Jan.2008. I got my FOIA documents and it confims I am EB2 and PD Jan 2008. I was suspecting the company was cheating me. I didn't get the I140 approval notice, but I got the I140 application documents and it has 30 pages.
09-15-2011, 12:19 AM
Pedro Gonzales

If all the effort so many of us put into reading and contributing to this thread were redirected to more productive sectors of the economy (our work, family, houses, gardens, neighborhood, community, etc), how many jobs would it create? It's past 1 AM EST right now and there are 22 people browsing this thread now. For me, that is the single most important determinant of whether immigrants add or subtract jobs from an economy. We're here, we've already taken away whatever jobs you're trying to protect. There's some chance that, if we weren't wasting our time trying to carve our place in the sand, we'd be partaking in an activity that would create other jobs, or, failing that, help the community. In any case, how many of us immigrants lose our jobs and leave the country before we receive our green cards, anyway? 3%? And on the other hand how many immigrants create other jobs in the US economy? 1 job per 10 immigrants?

Is there a way to calculate that? My point is, if the first number is minuscule, and in any case worse than the second number, then the anti-immigrant's argument is shattered. Holding up my GC pains the shit out of me for 7 years, but it doesn't save an American's job, and perhaps even delays 0.1 jobs from being created.

Just some intoxicated musings I thought I'd share with the world at large. Or in any case, with a bunch of analytical immigrants.

Jai Hind!
09-15-2011, 12:56 AM
nishant2200

:)

Good nite buddy.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

If all the effort so many of us put into reading and contributing to this thread were redirected to more productive sectors of the economy (our work, family, houses, gardens, neighborhood, community, etc), how many jobs would it create? It's past 1 AM EST right now and there are 22 people browsing this thread now. For me, that is the single most important determinant of whether immigrants add or subtract jobs from an economy. We're here, we've already taken away whatever jobs you're trying to protect. There's some chance that, if we weren't wasting our time trying to carve our place in the sand, we'd be partaking in an activity that would create other jobs, or, failing that, help the community. In any case, how many of us immigrants lose our jobs and leave the country before we receive our green cards, anyway? 3%? And on the other hand how many immigrants create other jobs in the US economy? 1 job per 10 immigrants?

Is there a way to calculate that? My point is, if the first number is minuscule, and in any case worse than the second number, then the anti-immigrant's argument is shattered. Holding up my GC pains the shit out of me for 7 years, but it doesn't save an American's job, and perhaps even delays 0.1 jobs from being created.

Just some intoxicated musings I thought I'd share with the world at large. Or in any case, with a bunch of analytical immigrants.

Jai Hind!
09-15-2011, 03:26 AM
tanu_75

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedro Gonzales

If all the effort so many of us put into reading and contributing to this thread were redirected to more productive sectors of the economy (our work, family, houses, gardens, neighborhood, community, etc), how many jobs would it create? It's past 1 AM EST right now and there are 22 people browsing this thread now. For me, that is the single most important determinant of whether immigrants add or subtract jobs from an economy. We're here, we've already taken away whatever jobs you're trying to protect. There's some chance that, if we weren't wasting our time trying to carve our place in the sand, we'd be partaking in an activity that would create other jobs, or, failing that, help the community. In any case, how many of us immigrants lose our jobs and leave the country before we receive our green cards, anyway? 3%? And on the other hand how many immigrants create other jobs in the US economy? 1 job per 10 immigrants?

Is there a way to calculate that? My point is, if the first number is minuscule, and in any case worse than the second number, then the anti-immigrant's argument is shattered. Holding up my GC pains the shit out of me for 7 years, but it doesn't save an American's job, and perhaps even delays 0.1 jobs from being created.

Just some intoxicated musings I thought I'd share with the world at large. Or in any case, with a bunch of analytical immigrants.

Jai Hind!

Well said. Some good intoxication that.
09-15-2011, 06:21 AM
10102007

Immigrants and Economy

Yesterday there was a segment on Marketplace where they were discussing about lack of jobs. It was interesting because some of the developIng country have a lower unemployment rate. In the US, people who have jobs are not spending. Hence people without jobs stay unemployed. The companies that have cash are not spending either.

Now imagine this scenario: you ease up LEGAL immigration and more people come in. Now those people will need things and they could give a small push to the struggling economy. Think about how many of us have put off buying homes or other expensive things because of the X factor with H1B stamping and the dragging GC process. If an 'immigration' stability is provided, I'm sure a few of us will buy homes, a few may start small businesses, a few of us may pursue higher education.

I'm not saying this alone will spur the economy. But the current middle class and rich have what they want/ need and you need a new set of consumers.

Then comes the part where how ILLEGAL immigrants can help. Yes they are here illegally but see how you can take advantage of their position. Yes deport all illegal immigrants with criminal records, but if you somehow give a work permit, they may feel a firm footing. Of course, once an amnesty is given, you have to tighten border security so that people can't come here illegally to become legal immigrants. Also, the taxes these people pay is a win for the government.
(please note that I'm not supporter of forgiving illegal immigrants, but just rambling on how the US government can take advantage of their situation)

In a way the EB-5 plan is good too. Yes in a way it affects people like us, but that is why I stated that you have to ease up LEGAL immigration.

Sorry guys - just some directionless blabbering.
09-15-2011, 07:57 AM
gc_usa

Mine is Jan 2008 too what is ur date ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Sir, thanks for asking. My PD is January 2008. I guess I have to wait for another year.

My date is Jan 8th 2008. I am really scared since date sometime stops at 8 and you can't file if you are not earlier than 8.
09-15-2011, 08:23 AM
Eb2_Dec07

Gurus , mine is dec 4th 2007 PD Eb2 Ind . Im a little confused from different points of view . Can i expect 485 filing in 2012 itself or will I have to wait till 2013 .
I have not travelled to Ind since 2007 , waiting to file for 485 to and then make any travel. Hoping to travel end of 2012 for my new house warming in home country.
09-15-2011, 08:35 AM
kpt112107

Good but on what paper here? I mean in India we do it on some twenty rupees stamp paper. Can we go to any notary in UPS store to do this?

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

i have done it in US for my parents and my attorneys and immigration expects in my company.. say that is perfectly fine (infact even better).
09-15-2011, 08:37 AM
familyguy

I have a PD which is close to yours.... There is a very good chance that we will get a chance to file 485 in this fiscal year.. worst case, i am pretty sure that we will get a chance to file early next FY, which is Oct 2013...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07

Gurus , mine is dec 4th 2007 PD Eb2 Ind . Im a little confused from different points of view . Can i expect 485 filing in 2012 itself or will I have to wait till 2013 .
I have not travelled to Ind since 2007 , waiting to file for 485 to and then make any travel. Hoping to travel end of 2012 for my new house warming in home country.
09-15-2011, 08:44 AM
Chilli19

Here is the Ron Gotcher's news letter on October visa bulletin

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...ctober-vb.html
09-15-2011, 08:57 AM
Kanmani

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chilli19

Here is the Ron Gotcher's news letter on October visa bulletin

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...ctober-vb.html

Our own Veni has already explained the 2007 scenario where people rushed to file I485 even without a Perm approval . Ron is late
09-15-2011, 09:12 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07

Gurus , mine is dec 4th 2007 PD Eb2 Ind . Im a little confused from different points of view . Can i expect 485 filing in 2012 itself or will I have to wait till 2013 .
I have not travelled to Ind since 2007 , waiting to file for 485 to and then make any travel. Hoping to travel end of 2012 for my new house warming in home country.

I have not travelled to India since August 2000. So, hang on tight, you should get it soon :)
09-15-2011, 09:27 AM
gcoracle

ssvp, 11+ years? Wow that is a very long time to be away from family and friends. When you go, you will be shocked to see the changes(at least in the metros) India went through in a decade.
09-15-2011, 09:44 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcoracle

ssvp, 11+ years? Wow that is a very long time to be away from family and friends. When you go, you will be shocked to see the changes(at least in the metros) India went through in a decade.

Yeah, that is what i heard. Heard my city(Chandigarh) has gone from City Beautiful to City of Traffic Jams. Looking forward to the day i can end my "vanvas".
09-15-2011, 09:48 AM
srimurthy

One more Q guys, I got a copy of the I-140 approval notice from the employer. As shared earlier the A number and the PD is Sep, 30, 2010. I could not find this in the FLCDataCenter. Could it be that the FLCData Center is not upto date?
09-15-2011, 09:51 AM
Kanmani

As per AILA " DOS notifies USCIS of exhaustion of employment based visa numbers FY 2011"

Can't open the memorandum dated 09/15/2011
09-15-2011, 10:08 AM
skpanda

in iindia as well as in USA ... i have affidavits on plane paper. No stamp paper needed (confirmed with our company immigration specialist). Yes you can go to any notary... amscot/ups etc.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kpt112107

Good but on what paper here? I mean in India we do it on some twenty rupees stamp paper. Can we go to any notary in UPS store to do this?
09-15-2011, 10:19 AM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chilli19

Here is the Ron Gotcher's news letter on October visa bulletin

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newslett...ctober-vb.html

Excellent, thanks for sharing.
09-15-2011, 10:24 AM
evoori

Thanks for sharing the format.. One last question, for your parents, did you put your US address or their India address in the address field ?

Quote:

Originally Posted by skpanda

in iindia as well as in USA ... i have affidavits on plane paper. No stamp paper needed (confirmed with our company immigration specialist). Yes you can go to any notary... amscot/ups etc.
09-15-2011, 10:25 AM
nishant2200

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

As per AILA " DOS notifies USCIS of exhaustion of employment based visa numbers FY 2011"

Can't open the memorandum dated 09/15/2011

Generally OH law firm puts these up, watch out for their breaking news.

So guys, in a way this is good news, no wastage. I can't imagine how USCIS did 12k sudden E1 and E2Row 15 days early. This does give a little bit of credence to theory that these visa numbers are attached to E2IC oct VB current folks. It will be proved maybe if we don't see increasing E1 and E2ROW approvals on trackitt but instead see E2IC approvals next month for Oct VB current folks. This would be the bestest sceanario, worthy of champaigne bottle coz it would mean that FY 2011 ended on 15 Jul 2007. Take this with grain of salt though, just a theory. Also I don't think CO is breaking any law here, the visa number is not rolling over, it's already assigned to a documentarily qualified 485.
09-15-2011, 10:31 AM
Eb2_Dec07

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssvp22

I have not travelled to India since August 2000. So, hang on tight, you should get it soon :)

Sorry to know you have been on such a long wait. I can understand what you might be going through. In the past few years besides home country, I've missed out on so many great opportunities because of immigration status reqs. Besides anything else , what I yearn for now is the freedom to make decisions , choice and travel .
09-15-2011, 10:35 AM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Generally OH law firm puts these up, watch out for their breaking news.

So guys, in a way this is good news, no wastage. I can't imagine how USCIS did 12k sudden E1 and E2Row 15 days early. This does give a little bit of credence to theory that these visa numbers are attached to E2IC oct VB current folks. It will be proved maybe if we don't see increasing E1 and E2ROW approvals on trackitt but instead see E2IC approvals next month for Oct VB current folks. This would be the bestest sceanario, worthy of champaigne bottle coz it would mean that FY 2011 ended on 15 Jul 2007. Take this with grain of salt though, just a theory. Also I don't think CO is breaking any law here, the visa number is not rolling over, it's already assigned to a documentarily qualified 485.

Amen to that ! Can't wait for October to start and see approvals roll in...
09-15-2011, 10:46 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

Amen to that ! Can't wait for October to start and see approvals roll in...

Not too far, only two more weeks!
09-15-2011, 10:49 AM
TeddyKoochu

Quote:

Originally Posted by nishant2200

Generally OH law firm puts these up, watch out for their breaking news.

So guys, in a way this is good news, no wastage. I can't imagine how USCIS did 12k sudden E1 and E2Row 15 days early. This does give a little bit of credence to theory that these visa numbers are attached to E2IC oct VB current folks. It will be proved maybe if we don't see increasing E1 and E2ROW approvals on trackitt but instead see E2IC approvals next month for Oct VB current folks. This would be the bestest sceanario, worthy of champaigne bottle coz it would mean that FY 2011 ended on 15 Jul 2007. Take this with grain of salt though, just a theory. Also I don't think CO is breaking any law here, the visa number is not rolling over, it's already assigned to a documentarily qualified 485.

Nishant that does not appear to be the case. If we look at Trackitt approval trend for Aug and Sep there have been significantly higher approvals for EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 cases. So it appears that the numbers were actually allocated towards these cases. In October depending on the allocation whether its 250/750 or more EB2 I/C might see some random approvals in the range that is current. The date progression is purely for pipeline buildup. DOS / USCIS cannot allocate cap numbers to cases that are not current. Even in the July fiasco some people got their GC's much later when the dates were retrogressed but the cap numbers were allocated when their dates were current, this scenario is reverse of that. Let’s hope that the new inventory shows a lower count for EB2 ROW and EB1.
09-15-2011, 10:56 AM
nishant2200

Thank you :)

So this theory can go in trash then.

Back to where we were!

But at least lot of E1, E2Row approved means less backlog next year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Nishant that does not appear to be the case. If we look at Trackitt approval trend for Aug and Sep there have been significantly higher approvals for EB2 ROW, EB1 and EB3 cases. So it appears that the numbers were actually allocated towards these cases. In October depending on the allocation whether its 250/750 or more EB2 I/C might see some random approvals in the range that is current. The date progression is purely for pipeline buildup. DOS / USCIS cannot allocate cap numbers to cases that are not current. Even in the July fiasco some people got their GC's much later when the dates were retrogressed but the cap numbers were allocated when their dates were current, this scenario is reverse of that. Let’s hope that the new inventory shows a lower count for EB2 ROW and EB1.
09-15-2011, 11:11 AM
donvar

FY 2011 All Employment-Based Numbers exhausted

Unavailability of All Employment-Based Numbers through October 1, 2011
Thursday, September 15th, 2011

Today, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Immigrant Visa Control Office issued a memorandum notifying United States Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) of the exhaustion of all employment-based visa numbers for Fiscal Year (FY) 2011. Accordingly, please note, empolyment-based applications for adjustment of status in the U.S. and immigrant visa applications abroad will not be accepted and will not be approved until October 1, 2011, due to the unavailability of FY 2011 immigrant visas numbers.

http://www.immigrationsolutions.com/...october-1-2011
09-15-2011, 11:11 AM
qesehmk

Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC.

So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.

p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.
09-15-2011, 11:13 AM
donvar

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC. So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.
p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.

So does this mean that new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( Oct Bulletin COD) will be assigned from 2012 quota?

They did not announce to the the world. These immigration sites got news from internal sources from the memo to USCIS.
09-15-2011, 11:15 AM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Teddy EB2ROW does show acceleration. But EB1 doesnt. I don't think 2011 has visas left to take care of full Oct movement. However, I don't think we have seen enough acceleration in EB1 and EB2ROW to use the visas that otherwise would've gone to EB2IC.

So its still a mystery to me how will all visas from 2011 will be used AND why did oct bulletin show the movement it did.

p.s. - Does anybody find it strange that DoS communicated "visas exhausted" to USCIS AND announced it to the world too! Again don't know what to make of that other than - it was a bit strange.

This is indeed strange.. Does anyone recollect if they ever made this type of announcement in the past too?
09-15-2011, 11:18 AM
qesehmk

The visas exhaust every year. Is this usual for DoS to communicate this to USCIS every year.
Why didn't we see this kind of thing leak in prior years? the backlog was as acute last year as it is this year.

When they provide certain information to their sources they know exactly that this is going to the world. Enough said .. I rest my conspiracy theory.

Quote:

Originally Posted by donvar

So what does this mean? That new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( new pd) will be assigned from 2012 quota?

They did not announce to the the world. These immigration sites have got news from internal source from the memo to USCIS.
09-15-2011, 11:24 AM
donvar

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

The visas exhaust every year. Is this usual for DoS to communicate this to USCIS every year.
Why didn't we see this kind of thing leak in prior years? the backlog was as acute last year as it is this year.

I googled and found out they did it in 2010 as well.

So is it confirmed now that new EB2IC from Apr 15 - Jul 15 ( Oct 2011 COD) will be assigned from 2012 quota?
As the new COD approvals was suppose to start from Oct 1.
Please enlighten.

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