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KD,
Your statement on last year's PERM receipt numbers may not be correct. Last year DOS received 45,084 applications by May 31, 2011 as compared to 43,100 applications they received this year by May 31st. So, we are actually slightly better off this year as compared to last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thanks for your explanation.
Agreed. I like to think of them separately, rather than as one group.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Vedu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Great find man. I did check other sources and the numbers on your pdf match.
But there is just one point lying underneath, if it has any significance at this stage. In fy 2011, people with advanced degree were 37%, while this time it is 51%.
Also the 2011 file does not apparently provide the numbers certified and denied. But has a 22000 active cases, is that the number certified, just curious.
If that is the case we have more certified cases this year 27,600.
But I am pretty sure that active cases is not equal to certified case (If that was the case the denial rate is as high as 51%), would seem very steep. So my next question is can we find how many cases were certified between oct 2010 and may 2011. (This link does not seem to work, http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...ata_FY2011.mdb )
Suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I am not sure how reliable trackitt is in this regard due to excessive participation of EB2-I on trackitt. If you look at the perm cert file for 2012, It does give break down by country and EB2IC is bang on at 61%, so ROW+MP is 39%.
Murali - you are right. In fact, I realized that later, so removed that post.Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Hi All,
I am wondering if on going AILA conference will give us any further information to help predict numbers in better way ..
Spec/Q/Veni and other Gurus, share your thoughts ..
Thank you
So "upgraders" eventually become "porters" or do they become "one of us"? I don't mean that in a disparaging way but I want to define it so that we don't double count in the math.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
vizcard,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Fair point.
Maybe we just need to understand that we are talking about "Ëffective Porting Numbers".
By that, I mean those Porters who can actually be approved in the FY because their PD becomes Current.
10,000 could port with an existing PD in 2009 and it would likely have no effect in FY2013.
I would guess that most Porters in FY2013 would actually still come from the 2004-2007 range, where most probably have an existing I-485 on file already. Those with a PD of Aug 2007 to wherever the COD reaches in FY2013 would be the minority, although some may have been able to file an I-485 earlier this year.
For FY2013 there might be 3 "groups" of Porters:
a) Those who interfiled in FY2012 before the dates retrogressed beyond their PD and have not been approved yet - most of these should already be shown in the May Inventory.
b) Those from FY2012 who didn't finish the interfiling process before dates retrogressed beyond their PD - at least 4 months worth from June-September 2012.
c) Those who didn't start in FY2012, but will complete the process in FY2013 as dates become Current.
Gurus out there,
I am not sure if anyone got a chance to look into Vedu's post. But the more I think in that direction, I feel EB2 row will not behave any different in FY 2013 compared to FY 2012. Their demand is pretty much the same (in fact it maybe less if anything based on the perm data available). I am still waiting to see if we can get access to the certifications by country in 2011 to get a better idea and compare it to what we have this year.
So between Oct 2011 and May 2012 based on published data we have certified perms of 27600 of which 10764 are from ROWMP countries. Now how many of these contribute of EB2-ROWMP is a little difficult to guess in my opinion based on the information available.
My guess based on the data for Oct 2010 - May 2011 (http://www.immilaw.com/FAQ/PERM%20st...6%20-%2011.pdf) is that certified perms in that time frame are lesser for ROWMP as well.
Doesn't this counter our thought that spillover from EB2ROW in fiscal year 2013 will be almost nil. I mean if anything they should yield in 2013 what they would have yielded this year 2012 (they would have yielded a little lesser, if not for the fiasco).
Viz,
As Spec said, Porters with 2008 & later PD may be seen only in the coming years. We might have had some upgraders who filed their I-485 during Nov'11 to March'12 , I don't think those numbers can make a substantial effect on the OR.
Murali, please read the PERM statistics that Veni and I discussed few pages back. PERM situation is dynamic. In Oct 11 to March 12 period there were 16,600 certifications. Then in April 12 and May 12 there were 11,000 certifications.Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Moreover, PERM filings (and not approvals) have averaged about 43,000 per year in FY 2009,2010 and 2011. But in FY 2012 in first 8 months itself, there have been 43,000 filings.
So you can see filings are increasing and approvals are picking up. This implies the demand will increase for EB2-ROW next year, especially so because EB2-ROW is retrogressed now and will become current in FY 2013.
This is why EB2-ROW will mostly likely consume just as much as this year, and very likely more than this year.
KD,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
In the pdf file for 2011 approx 45K filings in FY 2011 is for a time period from Oct 2010 to May 2011, not the entire year (it says total applications received between Oct 2010 and May 2011). So in these 8 months we have only 43K filings in 2012 compared to 2011 which received 45K in 8 months.
Please correct me if I am wrong
I agree that perm filing is dynamic and approvals might increase. Filings in the last 4 months of the year may get higher or lower than last year. But looking at just the first 8 months FY 2012 seems to have roughly 2K filings lesser than FY 2011.
PS: I agree that filings in 2011 were considerably higher than 2010 and maybe 2009 also.
Without having apples to apples comparison from the DOL Factsheets for Q1 and Q2 it is difficult to compare properly.Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
I agree that as of the end of May, FY2011 and FY2012 are very comparable.
What I will repeat (rather like a parrot - sorry) is that at some point, we should see a dip in PERM receipts caused by the inability to get a PWD at the end of 2011, followed by a surge when they all finally come through.
It is possible that we have now come out of the dip and are into the surge phase.
I think only time will resolve this debate.
One more thing which makes difficult to compare 2012 with 2011 is the warning from DOL for a potential debarment of the employer one who repeatedly withdraws perm applications under audit . 2012 onwards, withdrawing audit perm applications and refiling as fresh applications are not allowed.
Spec,
Here is the wordings from Adjudicator’s Field Manual Chapter 23.2(I)(2)(L)
23.2 General Adjustment of Status Issues. (l) Transferring an Adjustment of Status Application from One Underlying Eligibility Basis to Another . (2) Guidelines (When considering a request by an adjustment applicant to convert the basis of his or her application, an adjudicator should take the following into account
(L) The Priority Date must Be Current for the Basis to Which the Applicant Wishes to Convert .
In order to convert an adjustment application to a new basis involving a preference classification, the alien must be the beneficiary of an approved visa petition (pertaining to that new basis) which has a current visa availability date. With limited exceptions, a priority date is NOT transferrable from one preference category to another, or from one petition to another.
http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/A...html#0-0-0-427
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Absolutely brilliant!!
I consider myself quite good at digging these things up, but you are in a different league.
Thank You
Spec, if all 2800 numbers are allocated to EB2I in Q1 of 2013 and if CO does not see any spill over in Q2 & expecting any SO to happen in Q3/Q4, will dates go back to 'U' one more time and stay U till SO happens.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I was looking at previous VBs to see if anything like this happened before-after 2007 fiasco and it did happen once in 2009 when dates went back from 15-Feb-2004/VB-May2009 to 1-Jan-2000/VB-Jun2009.
Selfishly I prefer a U in between COD moves. That keeps the numbers clean and predictable.Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
I have moved the recent Discussion to a DREAMERS-Deferred-Action-Process-for-Young-People-Who-Are-Low-Enforcement-Priority thread in Live Discussion.
Does anyone have an offline copy of I-485 Employment-Based Inventory Statistics (updated May 3, 2012). The website has incomplete file.
This is the link to the pdf for the latest version of the USCIS Inventory.Quote:
Originally Posted by immi2910
LINK
It looks complete to me.
The csv format data imported fine for me as well.
it's been a while so trying my hand and mind at predictions again... this is what i think will we be looking going forward...
Eb2 row accumulation before oct 2012 ~ 6500 for last quarter ( its a full quarter backlog and i am assuming 6500 consumption for EB2 ROW per quarter, we usually get around 12-15K from EB2 for EB2 I/C so around 25K used by ROW in 4 quarters)
Come 2013, EB2 row will use 6500 + 25000 + 8k (already pending from inventory report for 2011 and 2012) = 39500 out of 40K allocated i.e. 5000 short ( as I./C will be allocated 5600 out of 40K)
so EB2 row will continue to have a COD ??
porting = atleast 2k more until 2007 end??
No spillover from EB2 row come july 2013 and EB2 I crossing 2007 is only at the mercy of EB1 and other category spillover that too after EB2 row gets the first 5000...unfortunate numbers... i pray i am wrong...
What do you guys think?? please prove me wrong...
I don't think it's wrong. Getting any SO from ROW will be great but at the very least I hope they don't have CODs. Personally I think they become C before year end.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
soggadu,Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Your EB2-ROW calculation would be correct if the ongoing Inventory dropped to zero, but that is not what will happen.
The Inventory will always show a fairly similar figure, since processing is not instantaneous.
Therefore your calculation would become 6,500 + 25,000 + reduction in Inventory
The Inventory change could be positive or negative, but it won't be a big figure and EB2 -ROW should be within their allocation of 34.4k for the year based on your figures.
For your information EB2-WW (EB2-ROW/M/P) used 32.9k visas in FY2009, 27.4k in FY2010 and probably around 33.3k in FY2011 (educated guess).
Spill Across given by EB2-WW was 1.5k in FY2009, 9.7k in FY2010 and around 1.1k in FY2011.
So I would agree that, in the worst case, EB2-WW will not give any spillover in FY2013 and may actually use some of that available from EB1/EB4/EB5.
This is a slightly unrelated issue more related to EB3C (and EB2C to some extent). I see the overall pending I485 apps for EB3C to be 2,423 and out of which only 683 applications are in 2005 and ~1K in 2006. So, won't it be natural to move EB3-C at the same pace with EB3-ROW; given the max per-country quota every year is 2866, they can easily approve far less EB3-C applications than the max # and bring it to the same level as EB3-ROW. The current PD for EB3-C is Sep'05 whereas EB3-ROW has progressed to July'06. I don't follow why EB3-C has a separate PD that is lagging behind EB3-ROW, given so few applications they have pending.
Now, coming to EB2-C movement, going by the pending numbers the EB2-C PDs should be somewhere in the range of July - Sep'08 at the end of Sep'13. I think any spillover that will be available (from EB1, EB4, EB5 combined) will most likely go to EB2-I (assuming EB2-ROW is current; if not it goes to EB2-ROW first) as EB2-C will be moving ahead at a faster rate. I think in the coming years EB2-ROW will become current soon and EB2-C will have different PDs as compared with EB2-I (~6 months - 1 year ahead of EB2-I), though the major share of spillover visas (whatever, if at all available) will go to EB2-I.
Have been out of this loop for a while and not very up to date with the current scenario; not sure whether my thoughts/predictions make sense!
pch,
I think generally what you say is correct.
A couple of comments.
EB3-C has very high CP numbers. It has been about 30%, but jumped to over 55% in FY2010. It may take a bit longer than you think for EB2-C to reach the same COD as as EB2-WW. 12 months ago, EB3-C was 16 months behind EB3-WW. In July, they will be 10 months behind, but 3 months of the 6 months came in June 2012 alone.
The difference between EB2-C and EB2-I depends entirely on the level of SOFAD - the lower the SOFAD, the bigger the difference in Cut Off Dates, because essentially EB2-I uses all spare visas, as you said.
Guys ,
I hear from my friends about some people they know with PD EB2 I after Aug 2007 getting approvals after answering RFEs.
IS there any trend to these approvals . Any rationale for these approvals or is it just some kind of a mistaken approval .
Thank You
These might be the cases where a visa number is already allocated before VB became UQuote:
Originally Posted by Eb2_Dec07
http://www.nfap.com/pdf/NFAPPolicyBr...g.June2012.pdf
Looks like the waiting time is going to be more than it is expected..
Its just another paper with no new facts or additional "research".Quote:
Originally Posted by just_curious
Very informative for the new people to know the status. 70 years wait time. That is too much. I donot know why they do not implement STEM. Giving all the scolorships and yet no preference to US degrees?
Quote:
Originally Posted by just_curious
Actually, yes there is new info. It counters the claim that the percentage of IC PhDs staying in the US is the same as it was before.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
I don't think this statement needs to be necessarily true because I knew the statistics and facts that any policy analyst will go through to lay out the facts. The numbers behind it may not be reportable.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
It seems EB2 ROW is going to be unavailable in upcoming bulletins and EB1 is going to have a cut off date. - source **
EB2-ROW with a PD of Jan'09 is almost equivalent to U; there are hardly (< 1K) any pending I485 applications for EB2-ROW with PD up to 31st Dec'08. EB1 having a cut-off date will probably imply that almost nearly all of the yearly quota (total of EB1 + EB2 and most of EB4 + EB5) has been exhausted.
I see approvals for eb1 on trackitt until the end of last week. I think it will quite unlikely for eb1 to become unavailable soon.
Gurus ,
Any updates to where we will stand at the opening of 2013 and what is expected for EB2 India in the first 2 quarters of 2013 .
The CIS Ombudsman Annual Report 2011 is now available.
Other than a bit abaout EB5 and EAD delays, it looks generally uninteresting for EB applicants.
My friend who works in Cognizant (CTS) got his GC through EB1 category last week.
140 - Filed in March and approved in April
485 - Filed in April and approved in June.
Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
I'm interested in getting my hands on the number of I140 filings sorted by petitioning company. Does anybody know if it's already out there like it is for H1Bs? The PERM data is misleading because one PERM can lead to multiple I140 petitions. I'm curious as to what percentage of petitions are filed by Indian IT companies. I'm willing to file a FOIA request if that's what it takes but just wanted to see if it's already out there.