EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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09-26-2020, 11:43 AM
rocketfast

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zenzone

You are way too conservative here. I think EB2I and EB3I will converge somewhere around late 2011 to early 2012. I think you are overestimating the ROW demand in EB2 and EB3 and I also think some vertical SO from EB1 is still a reality. I envision 35-40K visas per category for India (if wastage is not substantial).

Irrational exuberance :) Another reason I am saying that there is 25K visa availability for EB2-I is by seeing that the FAD has moved by 2 months for Oct 2020 to September 1. If you see the last I-485 inventory, it shows 2000 demand for those 2 months (july, august). And you multiply it by 12 future months, you get ~25K.

But then again, one can also argue that only half of June 2009 is cleared so far (trackitt google doc for July bulletin). So, that leaves 2700 demand for oct 2020. you multiply it by 12 months, you get 32,400.
09-26-2020, 01:16 PM
EB2June2010

Hello everyone, I have been a longtime reader and posting for the first time.

I am looking at I-485 inventory report from Jan 2018, specifically for the EB2-I numbers. Is there a later one (could not easily find it)? Is it fair to assume that all cases up to June 2009 would be cleared since those dates were current for the last few months? If so, can we consider that there are ~4500 I-485 adjudicated applications already with USCIS that can consume a visa number as those dates become current, starting Oct 2020. Also, do these I-485 numbers include dependents or do we need to multiple by 2.2 (or whatever multiple) to get the potential visa demand?

I am just trying to go over the numbers to see what the known (excluding PWMBs) demand is. If the demand is just ~4500 or (4500 * 2.2 = ~10000), then one can use that as the basis and make assumptions about PWMB numbers and see when dates beyond April 2010 may become current in the next year.

Can someone validate my numbers, assumptions, and understanding?
09-26-2020, 02:37 PM
EB2IndSep09

Quote:

Originally Posted by pramod

Assuming all/most spillover (FB 2019-20 numbers) going to India and based on available data (PERM, I-140, pending applications etc.), any educated guess on where could EB2I end up by Sep2021? Is it even possible to estimate at this point?
Thank you

I think your question is related to FA dates..
After revising the procedures for determining visa availability for applicants waiting to file, start of every fiscal year DOS estimates or at least supposed to estimate where the FA dates could end up based on the available number of visa for that fiscal year and moves the DFF to that date. Being said that, are the dates going to move to May 2011 and Jan 2015? depends on many factors like how many USCIS is going to process, how many people are having their status ready to file AOS etc.
09-26-2020, 04:34 PM
trackitgc

With the reduced load from family visa's I do believe USCIS should be able to process a lot of the surge applications sooner than expected. What do you guys think ?
09-26-2020, 05:49 PM
gs1968

Quote:

Originally Posted by trackitgc

With the reduced load from family visa's I do believe USCIS should be able to process a lot of the surge applications sooner than expected. What do you guys think ?

It is possible and as I mentioned in a previous post everything depends on the election outcome. If the democrats win and we have a President Biden the travel ban will be lifted. One can expect aggressive movement of Family based filing dates to make up for the time lost this year. The first step of the application process for both IR category and FB is the I-130 which is the responsibility of the USCIS.After that the NVC and DoS take over. We should also not forget that due to the continuing visa ban till December 31 2020 there will be roughly an extra 60000 FB visas which will be wasted and they will move dates hard to accomodate. To process 260K EB visas the USCIS should increase its processing capacity by 80 % for the EB category alone. If one is backlogged the dream situation would be a Trump win with the travel ban extended and FB visas continue to flow into EB
09-26-2020, 06:09 PM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by gs1968

If one is backlogged the dream situation would be a Trump win with the travel ban extended and FB visas continue to flow into EB

Thanks a lot for explaining the scenarios on the legislative front. I respectfully disagree on your views. What's the use of more visas in paper when an admin (Stephen Miller) is finding creative ways to waste them. What happened to the 25K GC visas in 2020 that somehow vanished into thin air? Based on the past, they will even go to the extent of furloughing USCIS staff to stop / reduce immigration. I believe that a Biden win increase the chances of more utilization of available spillover. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. I cannot comment on legislation (new bills like Grace amendment) that might prevent this. So I think, JB win will help us a lot.

Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush
09-26-2020, 07:10 PM
gs1968

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

Thanks a lot for explaining the scenarios on the legislative front. I respectfully disagree on your views. What's the use of more visas in paper when an admin (Stephen Miller) is finding creative ways to waste them. What happened to the 25K GC visas in 2020 that somehow vanished into thin air? Based on the past, they will even go to the extent of furloughing USCIS staff to stop / reduce immigration. I believe that a Biden win increase the chances of more utilization of available spillover. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. I cannot comment on legislation (new bills like Grace amendment) that might prevent this. So I think, JB win will help us a lot.

Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush

I apologize if I came across as imposing any political views. Your angle of reasoning also sounds logical. I think USCIS did a very smart move by aligning with DoS and having the same dates.This eliminated the risk of blowback and also any threat of litigation. I also agree that visa issuance will be slow walked in the first 3 months of the upcoming FY21 as the Trump administration will still be calling the shots.

Your last statement "Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized." sums it up perfectly. USCIS needs to show extreme good intent and determination for these kind of numbers to be processed and utilized
Again I apologize for my lack of clarity in the last post
09-26-2020, 07:58 PM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by gs1968

I apologize if I came across as imposing any political views. Your angle of reasoning also sounds logical. I think USCIS did a very smart move by aligning with DoS and having the same dates.This eliminated the risk of blowback and also any threat of litigation. I also agree that visa issuance will be slow walked in the first 3 months of the upcoming FY21 as the Trump administration will still be calling the shots.

Your last statement "Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized." sums it up perfectly. USCIS needs to show extreme good intent and determination for these kind of numbers to be processed and utilized
Again I apologize for my lack of clarity in the last post

We all wish for the same thing. We want our PDs to move and people not to suffer because of backlog. This forum and I had immensely benefited from your analyses and insights. Even though our paths and thoughts are different (karma-marga vs jnan-marga vs bhakti-marga), they all lead to final emancipation (moksha).

Even though I wished JB to win (for the reasons mentioned above), I am not sure how things will turn out if he wins all three (House, Senate and Presidency). Maybe another DT term is not a bad thing (if democrats win House and Senate). Checks and balances on both sides.
09-26-2020, 09:47 PM
vbollu

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

Thanks a lot for explaining the scenarios on the legislative front. I respectfully disagree on your views. What's the use of more visas in paper when an admin (Stephen Miller) is finding creative ways to waste them. What happened to the 25K GC visas in 2020 that somehow vanished into thin air? Based on the past, they will even go to the extent of furloughing USCIS staff to stop / reduce immigration. I believe that a Biden win increase the chances of more utilization of available spillover. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. I cannot comment on legislation (new bills like Grace amendment) that might prevent this. So I think, JB win will help us a lot.

Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush

I don't agree with this analysis, democrats are much worse than stephen miller or any other racist in terms of legal immigration. we have seen this issue in I-140 ead, 2015 visa bulletin fiasco, senator durbin flip flops on s386. If democrat party president is in place of trump shoe could he halted family immigration in first place? trump took bold decision and it got helped at least EB Indian immigrants, other wise we could have got struck in another 20 years to get at least EAD. in my opinion all Indian immigrants who got benefited from this bulletin must say thanks to the current adminstration and in process if we loose few more GC's then still okay when large section of people getting benifit from it in first place.
09-26-2020, 10:39 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by gs1968

If the democrats win and we have a President Biden the travel ban will be lifted. One can expect aggressive movement of Family based filing dates to make up for the time lost this year.

gs - you are too smart to not know that the reason of FB under utilization is consulate closures due to COVID. Nothing to do with travel ban. But I do agree that if Trump wins he will continue to keep the consulates closed (the reason is two fold - 1. it keeps the FB immigration down. 2. it keeps the DOS business down which the anti-globalist crowd hates).

It's funny how trump think COVID is hoax and yet for exactly same reason he has kept consulates closed.
09-27-2020, 06:53 AM
gs1968

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

gs - you are too smart to not know that the reason of FB under utilization is consulate closures due to COVID. Nothing to do with travel ban. But I do agree that if Trump wins he will continue to keep the consulates closed (the reason is two fold - 1. it keeps the FB immigration down. 2. it keeps the DOS business down which the anti-globalist crowd hates).

It's funny how trump think COVID is hoax and yet for exactly same reason he has kept consulates closed.

You are right Q-my mistake The two things happened so close to each other that it was hard for me to separate one from the other. I think the consulates are slowly opening up although for limited emergency services only. As vbollu mentioned the ability to downgrade and file to EB3 category and get an EAD can be a game changer. I read on another forum recently about someone that is still on EAD/AP for 8 years now and how he has furthered his life significantly. I hope many employers allow and support the downgrades because they know about the portability option for the employee once approved. The icing on the cake would be if the USCIS started honoring the Filing dates to lock in the child age out protection instead of the FAD. This continues to be the major problem for families who are here on H-1B/H4 with children born abroad.
09-27-2020, 07:37 AM
newyorker123

Can somebody roughly give an idea of possible FAD/Filing date trends for EB2/EB3 in coming 1-2years ?

Specifically interested about FAD. Any hope in sight for 2011/2012 dates in next 1-2 years, or is it still going to languish in 2009-10 ?

For Filing date, I guess as per messages I see that EB3 might retrogress in the next 1-2 years, and EB2 might improve, until they are sort-of close by to each other.
09-27-2020, 09:42 AM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by gs1968

You are right Q-my mistake The two things happened so close to each other that it was hard for me to separate one from the other. I think the consulates are slowly opening up although for limited emergency services only. As vbollu mentioned the ability to downgrade and file to EB3 category and get an EAD can be a game changer. I read on another forum recently about someone that is still on EAD/AP for 8 years now and how he has furthered his life significantly. I hope many employers allow and support the downgrades because they know about the portability option for the employee once approved. The icing on the cake would be if the USCIS started honoring the Filing dates to lock in the child age out protection instead of the FAD. This continues to be the major problem for families who are here on H-1B/H4 with children born abroad.

I knew that you knew!

Yes indeed, ability to file 485 would be quite life changing. The aging out is going to be a huge problem and I think whichever administration comes next, the country cap bill must be furthered with a singular focus on the needs of backlogged folks rather than mixing up Indian and American right wing politics.
09-27-2020, 09:56 AM
srimurthy

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

I knew that you knew!

Yes indeed, ability to file 485 would be quite life changing. The aging out is going to be a huge problem and I think whichever administration comes next, the country cap bill must be furthered with a singular focus on the needs of backlogged folks rather than mixing up Indian and American right wing politics.

I agree Q, in all this situation one should not ignore the Country Cap bill. Until that gets approved, everything is a stop gap and arbitrary reliefs but the problem still persists.
09-27-2020, 02:12 PM
Zenzone

Quote:

Originally Posted by newyorker123

Can somebody roughly give an idea of possible FAD/Filing date trends for EB2/EB3 in coming 1-2years ?

Specifically interested about FAD. Any hope in sight for 2011/2012 dates in next 1-2 years, or is it still going to languish in 2009-10 ?

For Filing date, I guess as per messages I see that EB3 might retrogress in the next 1-2 years, and EB2 might improve, until they are sort-of close by to each other.

My estimate is both EB2 and EB3 FAD would converge in mid to late 2011 by the end of this fiscal.
09-27-2020, 04:25 PM
sjayanthi

Thank you all for sharing a lot of different insights, super valuable. I am in a much different situation. After waiting for about 10 years ( EB2 PD April 2011, have MS and MBA from USA ) we decided to move to Canada couple months ago [beginning of Aug, 2020] for an international assignment. Now based on Oct bulletin, my PD is "current" under DOF. The debate we are having is, when consulates open, should we try to come back to USA and file under EB2 or wait for 6 more months and try to aim for EB1 C. Any inputs from this community will definitely help me make an educated decision. Thanks in advance.
09-27-2020, 06:13 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by srimurthy

I agree Q, in all this situation one should not ignore the Country Cap bill. Until that gets approved, everything is a stop gap and arbitrary reliefs but the problem still persists.

Absolutely. And once country caps are dashed then Americans and the lawmakers will realize how significantly immigration levels are in mismatch with the levels of foreign labor. That mismatch is what causes exploitation of slave labor as well as American labor.
09-27-2020, 06:15 PM
qesehmk

Quote:

Originally Posted by sjayanthi

Thank you all for sharing a lot of different insights, super valuable. I am in a much different situation. After waiting for about 10 years ( EB2 PD April 2011, have MS and MBA from USA ) we decided to move to Canada couple months ago [beginning of Aug, 2020] for an international assignment. Now based on Oct bulletin, my PD is "current" under DOF. The debate we are having is, when consulates open, should we try to come back to USA and file under EB2 or wait for 6 more months and try to aim for EB1 C. Any inputs from this community will definitely help me make an educated decision. Thanks in advance.

Without any doubt don't come back just for 485. File CP. Earn the foreign assignment credit with the employer and come back on a much bigger position as well as right to EB1C. Good luck.
09-27-2020, 06:32 PM
Justmyself

EB3I March 2011 here. Do you guys suggest doing medicals now or waiting for The interview/RFE?
09-27-2020, 08:05 PM
alpha0

Quote:

Originally Posted by Justmyself

EB3I March 2011 here. Do you guys suggest doing medicals now or waiting for The interview/RFE?

You are very likely to get GC in next 2 yrs, so submit medicals now with 485. That way, if they decide to waive your interview, you dont have to face any RFE delay.
09-27-2020, 08:12 PM
idliman

Quote:

Originally Posted by vbollu

I don't agree with this analysis, democrats are much worse than stephen miller or any other racist in terms of legal immigration. we have seen this issue in I-140 ead, 2015 visa bulletin fiasco, senator durbin flip flops on s386. If democrat party president is in place of trump shoe could he halted family immigration in first place? trump took bold decision and it got helped at least EB Indian immigrants, other wise we could have got struck in another 20 years to get at least EAD. in my opinion all Indian immigrants who got benefited from this bulletin must say thanks to the current adminstration and in process if we loose few more GC's then still okay when large section of people getting benifit from it in first place.

I agree that it is because of the Trump EO side-effects that we got this record spillover from FB to EB. It is great for people who are waiting for an EAD. Myself and my spouse had benefited from the AOS EAD since 2012, as do numerous folks till May 2010. Please note that the DF based EAD will not prevent age-out of kids. However, what I was saying was that this spillover is only in paper. If two years of Indian Backlog clears, then DT would have done more to the backlog than what #43 and #44 did for EB immigrants. It is my personal opinion that most of the spillover will be wasted using some excuse (I will be very happy if I am wrong and most including myself get their GCs).

You keep talking as if that only Sen Durbin killed S386. Yes, he played a big role in it. Ultimately it was killed by Rick Scott / Republicans with S. Miller standing in the shadows. I was saying for a long time that at the last-minute DT can call a southern Senator and put a hold. Sadly, that’s what happened. Before Durbin, it was Sen Grassley. It can easily be Sen Cotton. Someone either from R’s or D’s had always shown up to kill Fairness Bill.

So, if you want to support DT for the purpose of giving a lot of people EAD’s accidentally, I have no problems with it. It is the truth.

I know that many of you are optimistic about some kind of immigration reform. I have been waiting since 2009, however to my limited knowledge there is no chance of anything happening on the immigration front. Immigration is considered a losing case and there is less appetite to take it up in the first term of any new president. Everyone in the world other than Indians are benefiting from country cap. It will be impossible to get rid of it (without a CIR).

I don’t think you or I were wrong. It is just the optics. Supporting D’s or R’s does not mean anything. Historically R’s have supported legal immigration. However, this time R’s have aligned with white nationalists that hate Brown skinned folks. Peace.
09-27-2020, 09:13 PM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by idliman

I agree that it is because of the Trump EO side-effects that we got this record spillover from FB to EB. It is great for people who are waiting for an EAD. Myself and my spouse had benefited from the AOS EAD since 2012, as do numerous folks till May 2010. Please note that the DF based EAD will not prevent age-out of kids. However, what I was saying was that this spillover is only in paper. If two years of Indian Backlog clears, then DT would have done more to the backlog than what #43 and #44 did for EB immigrants. It is my personal opinion that most of the spillover will be wasted using some excuse (I will be very happy if I am wrong and most including myself get their GCs).

You keep talking as if that only Sen Durbin killed S386. Yes, he played a big role in it. Ultimately it was killed by Rick Scott / Republicans with S. Miller standing in the shadows. I was saying for a long time that at the last-minute DT can call a southern Senator and put a hold. Sadly, that’s what happened. Before Durbin, it was Sen Grassley. It can easily be Sen Cotton. Someone either from R’s or D’s had always shown up to kill Fairness Bill.

So, if you want to support DT for the purpose of giving a lot of people EAD’s accidentally, I have no problems with it. It is the truth.

I know that many of you are optimistic about some kind of immigration reform. I have been waiting since 2009, however to my limited knowledge there is no chance of anything happening on the immigration front. Immigration is considered a losing case and there is less appetite to take it up in the first term of any new president. Everyone in the world other than Indians are benefiting from country cap. It will be impossible to get rid of it (without a CIR).

I don’t think you or I were wrong. It is just the optics. Supporting D’s or R’s does not mean anything. Historically R’s have supported legal immigration. However, this time R’s have aligned with white nationalists that hate Brown skinned folks. Peace.

Idliman,

So you basically don't trust the official words in October Visa Bulletin, "RAPID FORWARD MOVEMENT" in coming months (?) You can downgrade from EB2 to EB3 by filing premium I140 application which will be approved in 15 days. Your priority date is current under EB3 and you can get GC without any further wait.
09-27-2020, 09:22 PM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by vsivarama

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

Vsivarama,

Do you still have distrust about SO? OR are you getting ready to turn in your application?
09-27-2020, 09:40 PM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

Just makes me so mad... what other evidence is needed? They can simply deny this and will not be held accountable if visas get wasted.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@ReichlinMelnick
.
@RepZoeLofgren
: "Let me just be frank. Members of my staff have recieved information from USCIS employees indicating that DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin. Do you have any knowledge of that?"

Edlow says no.

This time it doesn't look like that the DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin.
09-27-2020, 10:36 PM
Tandav

I would be happy if proven wrong. True,This time the political head has not interfered. The reason is this:
The agency is running out of money and needs the money desperately. The best way to ensure the funding for the next 4 years is:
a) increase the fee
b) honor the filing date and bring in thousands of I-485 applications
c) collect money for I-485, EAD AP
d) give the EAD/AP with 1 year validity and keep generating income every year when they are due for renewals
e) give some reason or other after every bulletin for not moving the final action date
f) keep renewing the EAD/AP that would bring enough money

The h1b extension is once in 3 year affair where as the EAD can be every year or every other year. Does it make sense?..
09-27-2020, 10:44 PM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tandav

I would be happy if proven wrong. True,This time the political head has not interfered. The reason is this:
The agency is running out of money and needs the money desperately. The best way to ensure the funding for the next 4 years is:
a) increase the fee
b) honor the filing date and bring in thousands of I-485 applications
c) collect money for I-485, EAD AP
d) give the EAD/AP with 1 year validity and keep generating income every year when they are due for renewals
e) give some reason or other after every bulletin for not moving the final action date
f) keep renewing the EAD/AP that would bring enough money

The h1b extension is once in 3 year affair where as the EAD can be every year or every other year. Does it make sense?..

I am just responding to the forum members' posts from 1-2 months ago. I will respond to your post in 2-3 months, I promise!!;) By the way, you can also downgrade from EB2 to EB3 by applying Premium I-140 application which will be approved in 15 days. Your priority date is current in EB3 and you can get your GC without any further wait. Why wait when there is no hope?
09-28-2020, 07:48 AM
richie.rich

EB2 EB3 Upgrade Downgrade

Not sure if you guys are aware, Upgrades and Downgrades are not eligible for Premium, if you are filing I-140 with old PERM application.

Please take legal advise with immigration attorney, if you want to know more.
09-28-2020, 08:05 AM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by richie.rich

Not sure if you guys are aware, Upgrades and Downgrades are not eligible for Premium, if you are filing I-140 with old PERM application.

Please take legal advise with immigration attorney, if you want to know more.

That's good to know. What is the processing time for regular I-140 application these days? I am myself considering that option if my PD becomes current under EB3 next month.
09-28-2020, 08:17 AM
LeoAugust

I am planning to downgrade. Just wish to know how long this trend for EB3 is going to continue and Do you see any chance of EB2 filling dates moving forward?
09-28-2020, 08:22 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

Vsivarama,

Do you still have distrust about SO? OR are you getting ready to turn in your application?

I will turn in my application all right. I am a pragmatist whose conclusions are driven by reasons and logic. It's same reason why I DO NOT for a second think, this admin has suddenly had an epiphany and wants to atone for it's past errant ways and hence granting this opportunity to us. They can always come up with creative ways to add more hurdles to make the rest of the process as cumbersome as possible. I have been on H1 all this while and I have seen how shifty the rules have been around the extension process in the last 4 years. I will be expecting the same here after the rest of the way if the status quo continues. But to answer you, Yes, I am happy that I was wrong.
09-28-2020, 08:27 AM
vsivarama

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

That's good to know. What is the processing time for regular I-140 application these days? I am myself considering that option if my PD becomes current under EB3 next month.

It's 5 to 7 months as per USCIS timelines.
09-28-2020, 08:33 AM
bluelabel

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tandav

I would be happy if proven wrong. True,This time the political head has not interfered. The reason is this:
The agency is running out of money and needs the money desperately. The best way to ensure the funding for the next 4 years is:
a) increase the fee
b) honor the filing date and bring in thousands of I-485 applications
c) collect money for I-485, EAD AP
d) give the EAD/AP with 1 year validity and keep generating income every year when they are due for renewals
e) give some reason or other after every bulletin for not moving the final action date
f) keep renewing the EAD/AP that would bring enough money

The h1b extension is once in 3 year affair where as the EAD can be every year or every other year. Does it make sense?..

Why do you pay for EAD/AP renewal? It's free if you pay the increased I-485 fee after 2007. In fact USICS lose time on resources if they have to renew EAD/AP renewals every other year.
09-28-2020, 08:44 AM
bloddy1

PERM Approvals

Hi All - Has anyone applied for and were approved for a new PERM petition? I heard there are significant delays in getting PERM approvals ranging almost over 8 months. Any recent experience here in this group - both positive or negative?
09-28-2020, 09:26 AM
AC_1980

Question for all the gurus:
PD July 2009 EB2-India filed for I-485 in Feb 2012. We received RFE on Aug 2020 (I-485J, medicals, G-325A) that my lawyer just responded to as part of AC-21 response (I last changed job in Aug 2018). My wife (PD EB2-India NIW has PD Dec 2010) is current to file for I-485 in Oct.

Is there an interview requirement for I-485 filed in 2012 but a subsequent I-485J filed now to respond to RFE? If so how long does the interview process typically take? We are trying to determine if my wife should file for her I-485 at the moment or not.

Any advice/ help is appreciated.
09-28-2020, 09:26 AM
redsox2009

I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

My advice to any person who are applying for new 485, I recommend to get it done before Oct 2nd 2020, if you miss that dead line then try to meet Oct 12th, if you miss the Oct 12th timeline then Oct 31st. (Why oct 2nd and Oct 11t, read USCIS news you will undersatnd.) (If you filed your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, after Feb. 24, 2020, you may be required to file Form I-944, Declaration of Self-Sufficiency. If we receive a Form I-485 before Oct. 13, 2020, that does not have all required forms and evidence, we will request any missing forms and evidence. After Oct. 13, 2020, we will reject your Form I-485 if you do not include the required forms and evidence with Form I-485 at the time of filing)

Coming to new Filing dates, I doubt these dates will last till Decemeber 2020. If not by next month dates might retrogress.

If US embassies around the world are opened then the GC consumption at the emabassies will be high, PHILIPPINES and MEXICO will consume more EB3 and South Korea will consume more at EB2/EB3 categories. These countries might consume close to 10K, these numbers are derived from previous years usage.

For Year 2021, there are 261K Visas avaliable for EB categeory and 226K Visas avaliable for FB categeory. 7% of these Visas it is close to 34k.

Close to 90K(Primary and dependents) EB1 Indians are eagerly waiting to apply, and No EB1 Indians has applied whose dates are beyond 2018 March. (Direct Source:- https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...2020_Q1_Q2.pdf)

Close to 300K applicants are eligible to apply under EB3 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals from May 2011 to Jan 1st 2015 and mutiply by 2.5 numbers)

Close to 130K applicants under EB2 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals and mutiply by 2)

If you have chance to apply 485 and if you miss this chance and if embassies opens up and embassies runs business as normal, it might take close to 10/15 years for these dates to become current again.

If you apply 485 in OCT, and your application might be tocuched sometime in March/April next year as the processing time for 485 application is minmun 6 months now it can go upto 9 months. You need to keep an eye how COVID is behaving around that time of the year and Also Economical and Political issues.

Many companies are trying to discourage to downgrade the applications, Please use every avaliable means/resources to apply 485 before OCT 2nd or OCT 12th or OCT 31st, but please try to apply AS FAST AS you can.

More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.
09-28-2020, 09:38 AM
Turbulent_Dragonfly

If the admin comes back, you will see massive changes in H1 rules that will make it a very high bar. At that time, having a EAD with it's job portability and not needing to go through the H1 process and especially stamping will seem a lot better.
09-28-2020, 10:01 AM
incredible

Quote:

Originally Posted by AC_1980

Question for all the gurus:
PD July 2009 EB2-India filed for I-485 in Feb 2012. We received RFE on Aug 2020 (I-485J, medicals, G-325A) that my lawyer just responded to as part of AC-21 response (I last changed job in Aug 2018). My wife (PD EB2-India NIW has PD Dec 2010) is current to file for I-485 in Oct.

Is there an interview requirement for I-485 filed in 2012 but a subsequent I-485J filed now to respond to RFE? If so how long does the interview process typically take? We are trying to determine if my wife should file for her I-485 at the moment or not.

Any advice/ help is appreciated.

No interview requirement for I485 filed back in 2012. By the way Supplement J will suffice now a days, there is no AC 21 response as such though. If you and your spouse already have EAD/AP (from 2012), there is no need to file I485 again for your spouse. Most probably you both will be greened in the coming days.
09-28-2020, 10:08 AM
sudiva

Quote:

Originally Posted by redsox2009

I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

Aim of this post is to create some awareness...........................

More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.

Great analysis and advise. Thank you and appreciate your time in putting this together. I have a question, is "i485 suppliment J" a must to submit along with new "adjustment of status" petition? The company attorney is digging in to the papers of my perm and i140 filings from 8 years ago. I think it will take time to find them and translate to "i485 suppliment J" form. Thank you.
09-28-2020, 10:22 AM
vedu

Quote:

Originally Posted by vsivarama

I will turn in my application all right. I am a pragmatist whose conclusions are driven by reasons and logic. It's same reason why I DO NOT for a second think, this admin has suddenly had an epiphany and wants to atone for it's past errant ways and hence granting this opportunity to us. They can always come up with creative ways to add more hurdles to make the rest of the process as cumbersome as possible. I have been on H1 all this while and I have seen how shifty the rules have been around the extension process in the last 4 years. I will be expecting the same here after the rest of the way if the status quo continues. But to answer you, Yes, I am happy that I was wrong.

It was not my intention to pick on anybody. But just wanted to point out that whatever this admin is doing/did ends up in helping people in backlog. As I previously said, in the absence of any legislation, "GOOD" is "BAD", and "BAD" is "GOOD" here. No matter how many hurdles they throw at us, they will never be able to deny H1B or GC to a well qualified applicant like you. There are enough checks and balances in the system. But thinking that a legislation will happen in near future and help people in backlog is a pipe dream.

In all likelihood, we are done for the filing dates progression for this year. But if the ban on outside FB continues, there will more SO available next year, and filing dates can significantly advance in year 2022, almost to the point of being current, and can help a lot more deserving people like you.
09-28-2020, 10:32 AM
newyorker123

Thanks Redsox for your analysis. It seems to me that a lot depends on FB categories opening up, and embassies opening up.
Has this process started already ? The following page indicates that international offices are almost all closed: https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/uscis-office-closings

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