Originally Posted by
Spectator
murali83,
I agree it is better to look at the Inventory at the moment, since many more cases will be pre-adjudicated by October 2012.
I think we also have to look at EB2-C separately from EB2-I because of the very different numbers. I know the Inventory numbers will change, but it still illustrates the point.
The initial allocation of 2.8k can take EB2-C to a COD of July 1, 2008, so China will reach that date even if there is no spillover. If they are allocated 27% or 757 visas in Q1, their COD would move to Nov 1, 2007.
This is in contrast to EB2-I, where 2.8k can only move EB2-C to about mid August 2007. 757 visas would reach April 1 2007. To reach Nov 1, 2007, EB2-I would need 4,321 visas. That would mean EB2-IC receiving 5,058 visas in Q1 FY2013 if the COD were to remain the same.
To reach a COD of July 1, 2008 EB2-I would require 13.6k.
So unless SOFAD reaches at least 16.4k (2.8 + 13.6), EB2-C is likely to have a later COD than EB2-I. Only if the ending COD is later than July 1, 2008 will EB2-C receive any spillover visas and the COD will then be the same as EB2-I.
Those numbers do not include any additional porting numbers and are based on the May Inventory, which will probably rise.
I'll leave you to decide what level of SOFAD you think is likely in FY2013.
The figures are to illustrate some of the potential problems, not to say that is what would happen.