EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2013

Thanks vizcard for posting the link to Spec's data. I also used Spec's data about the actual number of visas allocated due to fb spillover and plotted them against the actual number of EB2 visas received by India.

FY 2008 --- 22704 --- 14806
FY 2009 --- 0 --- 10106
FY 2010 --- 10657 --- 19961
FY 2011 --- 0 --- 23997
FY 2012 --- 4951 --- 19726

Looking at 2009 and 2011 data I intend to beleive that X may range between 10k to 23k. Adding that to X+12.9

We are looking at minimum of 22.9 t0 36k.

Even if it is 22.9k, I am incliined to beleive that CO will tend to build inventory again so as not to waste visa numbers in FY2014(even if it is a small movement).

Please let me know if my assumption is fair.

watch out for latest updates from CO. AILA updated in recent postings section.

2/22/2013 Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand (Updated 2/22/13)) 
Notes from conversations between Mike Nowlan & Roberta Freedman, AILA national committee members, and Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Topics discussed include the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2013. AILA Doc. No. 12012349.

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Originally Posted by idiotic

Thanks vizcard for posting the link to Spec's data. I also used Spec's data about the actual number of visas allocated due to fb spillover and plotted them against the actual number of EB2 visas received by India.

FY 2008 --- 22704 --- 14806
FY 2009 --- 0 --- 10106
FY 2010 --- 10657 --- 19961
FY 2011 --- 0 --- 23997
FY 2012 --- 4951 --- 19726

Looking at 2009 and 2011 data I intend to beleive that X may range between 10k to 23k. Adding that to X+12.9

We are looking at minimum of 22.9 t0 36k.

Even if it is 22.9k, I am incliined to beleive that CO will tend to build inventory again so as not to waste visa numbers in FY2014(even if it is a small movement).

Please let me know if my assumption is fair.

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The FB numbers are included in the actual SOFAD. The reason is the FB numbers are not a separate bucket. They get added to the normal allocation of EB and then it follows the same SO rules. So you would be double counting in that situation.

I think we will be around the 20K mark for this year (including the 13K from FB). I don't really see a situation where there won't be sufficient demand for FY14. I can see a big forward movement in the early part of FY15 though.

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Originally Posted by openaccount

watch out for latest updates from CO. AILA updated in recent postings section.

2/22/2013 Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand (Updated 2/22/13)) 
Notes from conversations between Mike Nowlan & Roberta Freedman, AILA national committee members, and Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Topics discussed include the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2013. AILA Doc. No. 12012349.

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The article you might be talking about has already been posted on another site www.lawbench.com on 13th Feb 2013 (Click on immigration-news link to see the article)

I believe that this meeting took place before CO was aware of 18K wind fall from FB.

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

The article you might be talking about has already been posted on another site www.lawbench.com on 13th Feb 2013 (Click on immigration-news link to see the article)

I believe that this meeting took place before CO was aware of 18K wind fall from FB.

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Niksammy,

Thanks for drawing our attention to that article. I wonder what the Feb 22, 2013 update is?

It confirms that EB1-C and EB1-I have already exceeded their 7% limit for the year, but fall across within EB1 can accommodate that.

It also mentions that in December 2012, 125 of the EB2-I approvals had a PD of 2003 or earlier and that USCIS are not working to provide better visibility of the numbers.

It also appears that cases are tagged as Principal or Dependent already, since CO was able to say 45% of cases are for Principal applicants. That's good to hear, since it will make it very easy if Dependents are excluded from Numerical Limits in future.

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Originally Posted by Niksammy

The article you might be talking about has already been posted on another site www.lawbench.com on 13th Feb 2013 (Click on immigration-news link to see the article)

I believe that this meeting took place before CO was aware of 18K wind fall from FB.

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thanks for the link, latest from AILA could be a new update from CO this week, we will know in next few days

Full article link:http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-...backlog-issues

from the article: "One little known fact offered by Mr. Oppenheim is that unused Family-based (FB) cases can be used for Employment-based (EB cases), but this does not usually occur because of heavy FB usage."

was CO aware of FB extra numbers when he released March VB looks like he is not from above statement

Why would CO talk to same set of lawyers twice in a span of 10 days? I think that EITHER someone on AILA might have forgotten to post that information on their web site earlier OR CO really likes both these gentlemen/lawyers in question and wants to convey good news to Eb2I community through them.

The probability of later happening before next few months is equal to probability of Washington Redskins winning a super bowl next year - which is almost zero :). Though I would love to be wrong this time

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Originally Posted by openaccount

thanks for the link, latest from AILA could be a new update from CO this week, we will know in next few days

Full article link:http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-...backlog-issues

from the article: "One little known fact offered by Mr. Oppenheim is that unused Family-based (FB) cases can be used for Employment-based (EB cases), but this does not usually occur because of heavy FB usage."

was CO aware of FB extra numbers when he released March VB looks like he is not from above statement

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He certainly was not aware of it. Hence the "revised" demand data document that came out a few days after the original document (and visa bulletin). Whether he would have done anything with that knowledge is another matter.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

The FB numbers are included in the actual SOFAD. The reason is the FB numbers are not a separate bucket. They get added to the normal allocation of EB and then it follows the same SO rules. So you would be double counting in that situation.

I think we will be around the 20K mark for this year (including the 13K from FB). I don't really see a situation where there won't be sufficient demand for FY14. I can see a big forward movement in the early part of FY15 though.

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vizcard,

Agree with everything you said, including the approximate number.

In the FY2012 figures, idiotic would also have to take into account that the 19.7k figure is 6-8k higher than it would normally have been, due to use of visas that normally would have been used by EB2-WW.

Spec,

Is it not too low, just 7000 excluding FB ?

Co is expecting a fall down from Eb1 is possible in a scenario that FB numbers were NOT in their count (!)

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Spec,

Is it not too low, just 7000 excluding FB ?

Co is expecting a fall down from Eb1 is possible in a scenario that FB numbers were NOT in their count (!)

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Kanmani,

It would have been much higher, but FY2013 is payback time for those extra EB2-WW visas used in FY2012.

I am allowing spillover from EB1.

Granted 7k might be at the low end of the range.

On the other hand, EB1-IC seem to have used 6k in about 4 months according to CO. At that rate, EB1-IC alone would use about 18k in a full year. That probably isn't a fair extrapolation, but it does give food for thought.

Thanks Spec. Thats disappointing.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Thanks Spec. Thats disappointing.

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Now does it mean no spillover from EB1. ? So now does it confirms no spillover of 18K as calculated by Spec earlier.

does it mean no spill over from EB1 ? What happens to your earlier prediction of 18K spillover at the last quarter.

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Originally Posted by edisonguy

Now does it mean no spillover from EB1. ? So now does it confirms no spillover of 18K as calculated by Spec earlier.

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There will be some fall down visas from Eb1 but by law, it should go to Eb2 WW if there is high demand . Eb2I was over allocated with some 8k visas last year which was borrowed from Eb2WW, hence a high demand in EB2ww is expected this FY.

Kanmani
I am not sure about that. I would think that a fall down or fall across is supposed to be applied to the entire category strictly by oldest PD. Extra demand in eb2row can't eat up any fd. It will limit any fa though.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

There will be some fall down visas from Eb1 but by law, it should go to Eb2 WW if there is high demand . Eb2I was over allocated with some 8k visas last year which was borrowed from Eb2WW, hence a high demand in EB2ww is expected this FY.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Kanmani
I am not sure about that. I would think that a fall down or fall across is supposed to be applied to the entire category strictly by oldest PD. Extra demand in eb2row can't eat up any fd. It will limit any fa though.

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Q,

We have beaten this topic to death in our 2011 thread in the context of Eb3 if by chance gets some spillover, then those extra visas will be used by the WW under the 7% per country limitation subsection. I believe this hold true for EB2 too.

Q/Spec,

What do you think will be the approximate spill over number for EB2 I?

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Kanmani
I am not sure about that. I would think that a fall down or fall across is supposed to be applied to the entire category strictly by oldest PD. Extra demand in eb2row can't eat up any fd. It will limit any fa though.

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Q,

I thought we had beaten this to death before.

Spillover only becomes available to Countries that have already reached their Numerical Limit IF there are no "otherwise qualified applicants". Since Countries in WW will not have reached their Numerical Limit, they ARE "otherwise qualified applicants".

Last time we agreed (eventually) that if numbers FD from EB1 to EB2 they essentially raised the numbers available to EB2 and consequently the number that 7% represented within EB2.

Assuming every 7% limited Country needed visas and EB2-ROW still needed visas, for every 100 available as FD 7 would go to each Country at the 7% limit and 72 would go to EB2-ROW. Once EB2-ROW did not require further visas, those 72 would go to the earliest PD, regardless of whether the 7% limit had been reached.

The old discussion is here.

One thing that everybody agreed on was that all FD would not go to the earliest PD if any Country that had not reached the 7% limit still had demand.

Kanmani / Spec - Sorry. I was still stuck in my old interpretation and forgot this discussion. I guess my old interpretation doesn't matter for EB2 since EB2ROW always is current - especially with FD but my old interpretation diverges significantly from reality for EB3ROW that has large backlog. If ever EB3 received any SOFAD, unfortunately EB3IC are not going to get any of it until EB3ROW became current. A bitter truth.

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Q,

We have beaten this topic to death in our 2011 thread in the context of Eb3 if by chance gets some spillover, then those extra visas will be used by the WW under the 7% per country limitation subsection. I believe this hold true for EB2 too.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

I thought we had beaten this to death before.

Spillover only becomes available to Countries that have already reached their Numerical Limit IF there are no "otherwise qualified applicants". Since Countries in WW will not have reached their Numerical Limit, they ARE "otherwise qualified applicants".

Last time we agreed (eventually) that if numbers FD from EB1 to EB2 they essentially raised the numbers available to EB2 and consequently the number that 7% represented within EB2.

Assuming every 7% limited Country needed visas and EB2-ROW still needed visas, for every 100 available as FD 7 would go to each Country at the 7% limit and 72 would go to EB2-ROW. Once EB2-ROW did not require further visas, those 72 would go to the earliest PD, regardless of whether the 7% limit had been reached.

The old discussion is here.

One thing that everybody agreed on was that all FD would not go to the earliest PD if any Country that had not reached the 7% limit still had demand.

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Spec/Q and other Gurus Friends..now since you guys are predicting higher Eb1 and Eb2 WW usage this year..what do you guys think Eb2I will end up by the end of this fiscal year (Sept. 2013)?

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Originally Posted by SmileBaba

Spec/Q and other Gurus Friends..now since you guys are predicting higher Eb1 and Eb2 WW usage this year..what do you guys think Eb2I will end up by the end of this fiscal year (Sept. 2013)?

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SmileBaba,
Please check first page of this thread for updated overall predictions for FY2013

Q, S and other Gurus on this forum, does the prediction for EB2I spillovers on the first page of this thread change in lieu of the this latest update from AILA?.....if so, what should be the revised number of the spillover to EB2I?

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by veni001

SmileBaba,
Please check first page of this thread for updated overall predictions for FY2013

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I could not see any update in first page especially after yesterdays from AILA. Can there be still 18K spillover ? Q, Gurus please answer.

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Originally Posted by longwait100

Q, S and other Gurus on this forum, does the prediction for EB2I spillovers on the first page of this thread change in lieu of the this latest update from AILA?.....if so, what should be the revised number of the spillover to EB2I?

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by edisonguy

I could not see any update in first page especially after yesterdays from AILA. Can there be still 18K spillover ? Q, Gurus please answer.

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Is there a link to the conversation details from yesterday? I haven't seen anything.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

If ever EB3 received any SOFAD, unfortunately EB2IC are not going to get any of it until EB3ROW became current. A bitter truth.

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Huh? How would this happen? How would EB3 receive SOFAD if EB2IC and EB2ROW were not current? I don't understand...

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Huh? How would this happen? How would EB3 receive SOFAD if EB2IC and EB2ROW were not current? I don't understand...

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Its a typo. Please read "EB3IC are not going to get "


The essence is,

Spillover to EB3 ---->EB3ROW----->EB3ROW NIL------> EB3IC
Spillover to EB2 ---->EB2ROW----->EB2ROW NIL------> EB2IC

Currently EB3 has no potential spillover possibility, so if any amendment is passed, and the spillover rule is changed, the distribution would be like as mentioned above.

There are 23,975 EB2-I cases (as per DD) pending before Jan-1-2009 plus lots of porting cases.

If 18K visas are available from spill over, prediction on dates might move to early 2009 is 100% not possible.

I feel dates will not move beyond July 2008.

I am not a expert on this, Please correct me If I am wrong ?

Note: We should have DD by month/year. (:--

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Its a typo. Please read "EB3IC are not going to get "


The essence is,

Spillover to EB3 ---->EB3ROW----->EB3ROW NIL------> EB3IC
Spillover to EB2 ---->EB2ROW----->EB2ROW NIL------> EB2IC

Currently EB3 has no potential spillover possibility, so if any amendment is passed, and the spillover rule is changed, the distribution would be like as mentioned above.

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Originally Posted by edisonguy

There are 23,975 EB2-I cases (as per DD) pending before Jan-1-2009 plus lots of porting cases.

If 18K visas are available from spill over, prediction on dates might move to early 2009 is 100% not possible.

I feel dates will not move beyond July 2008.

I am not a expert on this, Please correct me If I am wrong ?

Note: We should have DD by month/year. (:--

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With so many unknown factors, my honest opinion is not to come to any conclusion at this point of time. Lets hope for the best!

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Originally Posted by edisonguy

There are 23,975 EB2-I cases (as per DD) pending before Jan-1-2009 plus lots of porting cases.

If 18K visas are available from spill over, prediction on dates might move to early 2009 is 100% not possible.

I feel dates will not move beyond July 2008.

I am not a expert on this, Please correct me If I am wrong ?

Note: We should have DD by month/year. (:--

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edisonguy,

Unless many earlier PD cases are "left behind", I don't see Cut Off Dates progressing into 2009.

Unless the update to the article is momentous, I didn't see anything in it to alter my thinking.

I've been struggling to properly convey the numbers. I'll have one more go and leave it at that. Please don't get hung up on the exact numbers - it is an example within a range (possibly quite a wide one).

a) 18,000 extra visas for EB have been announced.

b) Of those, 5,148 will be made available to EB3 and cannot be used towards spillover. That leaves 12,852 extra visas that could Fall Down or Fall Across to EB2-I. I say EB2-I because I don't believe EB2-C will benefit from any of the extra visas.

c) EB2-WW used 25,009 visas last year. Had they not been retrogressed, they might have reached 32,000. That means there are 6,991 visas to flow through into FY2013 above the normal EB2-WW run rate.

d) The allocation for EB2-WW in FY2013 is 38,862. That is 6,862 higher than the 32,000 normal run rate they might use. The figure is so close to the extra number flowing from FY20112 to 2013, we can say that EB2-WW would use their entire new allocation and not provide Fall Across to EB2-I.

e) The EB2-WW share of the 12,862 visas above is 4,427. That leaves a balance of 8,425 extra visas available to EB2-I.

f) Currently, I am using a figure of 35k usage in EB1, 8k in EB4 and 10k in EB5. That provides an extra 5,000, 2,000 and zero visas to EB2-I had there been no extra FB visas.

g) The total spillover to EB2-I becomes 8,425 + 5,000 + 2,000 = 15,425 spillover visas.

h) Adding the normal allocation of 2,803 gives total visa available to EB2-I of 15,425 + 2,803 = 17,868. EB2-C receives 3,163 visas for SOFAD of 21,031.

As a table, this becomes

There are ------------- 18,000 - extra visas
Less -------------------(5,148)- to EB3

To EB2 ---------------- 12,852

Used by EB2-WW ---------(4,427)

Available for EB2-IC --- 8,425 - as spillover/increased allocation from extra FB visas

Normal SO from EB1 ----- 5,000 - Based on 35k usage of normal allocation
Normal SO from EB4 ----- 2,000 - Based on 8k usage of normal allocation
Normal SO from EB5 --------- 0 - Based on 10k usage of normal allocation

Total to EB2-IC ------- 15,425

Add Normal allocation -- 5,606

SOFAD EB2-IC ---------- 21,031

Total to EB2-C --------- 3,163
Total to EB2-I -------- 17,868

SOFAD ----------------- 21,031

or, if EB2-C receives 7% of any Fall Down from EB1 (as the INA appears to allow):

Total to EB2-C --------- 4,192
Total to EB2-I -------- 16,838

SOFAD ----------------- 21,031


I will reiterate again this is a simplified example of my current thinking. It evolves as more information becomes available. In fact, I've thrown it together so quickly, I have almost certainly left something out.

Feel free to plug in your own assumptions.

My immediate reaction is
1) porting will consume 3k of that 21k and
2) those are conservative spillover numbers.

I expect around 20k for EB2I. But really it's a lot of guess work at this point. At the end of the day, I expect dates to move to at least the end of Sept 2008.

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Originally Posted by vizcard

My immediate reaction is
1) porting will consume 3k of that 21k and
2) those are conservative spillover numbers.

I expect around 20k for EB2I. But really it's a lot of guess work at this point. At the end of the day, I expect dates to move to at least the end of Sept 2008.

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vizcard,

I think 20k is a reasonable number.

I did ask people not to get hung up by the exact numbers used in the calculation. It is meant to be more generic than that. I think it illustrates more that people should not expect 30k or 40k for EB2-I, unless something extremely unusual (and outside my comprehension) happens.

As for spillover, EB4 used 7.5k last year. I don't see that decreasing and the backlog of I-360 cases is now quite large.
For EB5, no likely retrogression for EB5-C is a good sign, but it is still likely to approach full usage. EB5 used 7.6k last year and they also have a very large backlog of I-526 cases. EB5 is going through a tricky period at the moment, but I expect that to be resolved before year end.

EB1 is probably the trickiest to call. My estimate is little more than the half way point between approvals in FY2011 and FY2012 and increased approvals within EB1-I can probably fill that gap. We'll see.

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Originally Posted by edisonguy

I could not see any update in first page especially after yesterdays from AILA. Can there be still 18K spillover ? Q, Gurus please answer.

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I guess the AILA posting that you are asking about is this one. Found it on Ron Gotcher's forum today where a forum member posted it.

http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-...backlog-issues

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

I guess the AILA posting that you are asking about is this one. Found it on Ron Gotcher's forum today where a forum member posted it.

http://www.lawbench.com/immigration-...backlog-issues

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There was supposedly another meeting yesterday. It's referenced on the AILA site but its for "members only". The content could very well be the same as your link.

That was a typo. Thanks Kanmani for identifying.

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Originally Posted by abcx13

Huh? How would this happen? How would EB3 receive SOFAD if EB2IC and EB2ROW were not current? I don't understand...

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Originally Posted by Spectator;33260[B

c) EB2-WW used 25,009 visas last year. Had they not been retrogressed, they might have reached 32,000. That means there are 6,991 visas to flow through into FY2013 above the normal EB2-WW run rate.

d)[/B] The allocation for EB2-WW in FY2013 is 38,862. That is 6,862 higher than the 32,000 normal run rate they might use. The figure is so close to the extra number flowing from FY20112 to 2013, we can say that EB2-WW would use their entire new allocation and not provide Fall Across to EB2-I.

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Spec,

Looking at the difference in inventory data between 10/1/12 and 1/3/13 for EB2ROW, it appears that around 7k visas have been issued in Q1, which matches with the figures mentioned in C. Here is the current USCIS EB2 inventory as on 1/3/13:
ROW: 13362
Mexico : 551
Phillipines: 1512
Total: 15425
Assuming 10% cases will be delayed, so approvable cases will be around 14k. This added to the already approved cases becomes around 21k visas.
In order for EB2ROW/M/P to reach 38862, USCIS would need to receive about 18k applications between Jan and May and approve them by September, assuming
I485's filed beyond May won't be approved in this year. Do think that USCIS will receive and receive about 3600 per month from Jan to May? I did not see such high EB2ROW demand in the last few years inventory data.

The amount of data and knowledge of people in this forum is amazing. Thanks of all the information and analysis.

What is stopping the controller from moving the dates forward as half year is almost passed and he got 18K additional visas?

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Originally Posted by bandoayan

Spec,

Looking at the difference in inventory data between 10/1/12 and 1/3/13 for EB2ROW, it appears that around 7k visas have been issued in Q1, which matches with the figures mentioned in C. Here is the current USCIS EB2 inventory as on 1/3/13:
ROW: 13362
Mexico : 551
Phillipines: 1512
Total: 15425
Assuming 10% cases will be delayed, so approvable cases will be around 14k. This added to the already approved cases becomes around 21k visas.
In order for EB2ROW/M/P to reach 38862, USCIS would need to receive about 18k applications between Jan and May and approve them by September, assuming
I485's filed beyond May won't be approved in this year. Do think that USCIS will receive and receive about 3600 per month from Jan to May? I did not see such high EB2ROW demand in the last few years inventory data.

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bandoayan,

The USCIS Inventory only captures data for cases where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Many Concurrent Filed cases are probably never captured in the USCIS Inventory.

For Categories (such as EB1) and Groups (such as EB2-ROW) that are generally Current, it does not capture the full numbers. The 7k only represents clearing the numbers that built up during retrogression, but they are not the only approvals for EB2-ROW. If you don't believe me, try using the Inventory for a previous full year (say FY2011) to match the actual numbers approved (30.2k). The Corresponding number for EB2-WW (EB2-ROW-M-P) is 34.6k.

For Q1, I would estimate (from historical Trackitt data) that EB2-WW used something over 13k (of which EB2-ROW was something over 11k). That is much more in line with also having to clear the accumulated cases due to retrogression in FY2012. It is also in line with all overall EB visas available in Q1 being used.

Currently, EB2-WW appears to somewhere over the 20k mark. Even now, it appears that about 20% of cases received by USCIS in June 2012 and 40% of those received in Oct/Nov 2012 still await approval.

Since USCIS seem to be approving a lot of cases in about 4 months, we are still some way from seeing the last of the cases that might still be approved in FY2013.

EB2-WW averaged 2.8k approvals per month in FY2012 and 2.9k approvals per month in FY2011. Even if monthly approvals for EB2-WW drop to 85% of their FY2012 levels going forward, EB2-WW will still reach their revised FY2013 allocation.

Even if I am overestimating the current number, that is enough "wiggle room" for it to still happen.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

bandoayan,

The USCIS Inventory only captures data for cases where the underlying I-140 has been approved. Many Concurrent Filed cases are probably never captured in the USCIS Inventory.

For Categories (such as EB1) and Groups (such as EB2-ROW) that are generally Current, it does not capture the full numbers. The 7k only represents clearing the numbers that built up during retrogression, but they are not the only approvals for EB2-ROW. If you don't believe me, try using the Inventory for a previous full year (say FY2011) to match the actual numbers approved (30.2k). The Corresponding number for EB2-WW (EB2-ROW-M-P) is 34.6k.

For Q1, I would estimate (from historical Trackitt data) that EB2-WW used something over 13k (of which EB2-ROW was something over 11k). That is much more in line with also having to clear the accumulated cases due to retrogression in FY2012. It is also in line with all overall EB visas available in Q1 being used.

Currently, EB2-WW appears to somewhere over the 20k mark. Even now, it appears that about 20% of cases received by USCIS in June 2012 and 40% of those received in Oct/Nov 2012 still await approval.

Since USCIS seem to be approving a lot of cases in about 4 months, we are still some way from seeing the last of the cases that might still be approved in FY2013.

EB2-WW averaged 2.8k approvals per month in FY2012 and 2.9k approvals per month in FY2011. Even if monthly approvals for EB2-WW drop to 80% of their FY2012 levels going forward, EB2-WW will still reach their revised FY2013 allocation.

Even if I am overestimating the current number, that is enough "wiggle room" for it to still happen.

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What is button line here?

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Originally Posted by indian1975

What is button line here?

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indian1975,

That I don't expect any Fall Across from EB2-WW to EB2-I.