EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

Don't believe Ron when it comes to CO. Both are buddies.

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Originally Posted by superdesi2100

Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.c...backlog-15263/

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I don't think he does better job than us when it comes to calculation. He may be great lawyer but not number cruncher. How come porting was high in deep recession and now all of a sudden go away ? He is same like AILA who wanted to generate more business by saying port baby port. He is trying to send out message to all EB3 to port and engage him.

Ron's predictions have always been wide off the mark. He does zero with respect to analytical predictions and only wants to attract more business on the porting side. I would not attach much importance to his predictions.He might ultimately claim victory in Sep 2012 because anyhow numbers might not move beyond Dec 2007 ( based on the analysis so far by the guru's) and he will get to claim all this was due to the porting falling off and an golden opportunity exists for his customers to rush into the pipeline.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by superdesi2100

Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.c...backlog-15263/

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I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by superdesi2100

Ron Gotcher says:

Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.

The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.

In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.

http://www.immigration-information.c...backlog-15263/

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.

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I trust you guys on analysis than anybody else out there. No body else out there other than you - Q - predicted July 2007 priority date for EB2.

I found it hard to believe what Ron G had to say and hence I posted it with the portion in bold. I will be careful posting from other sources in future.

superdesi, please continue to post what your judge as good information. My only intention was to comment rather than criticize. And generally all other members too I trust meant similar. Thank you for the contribution!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by superdesi2100

I trust you guys on analysis than anybody else out there. No body else out there other than you - Q - predicted July 2007 priority date for EB2.

I found it hard to believe what Ron G had to say and hence I posted it with the portion in bold. I will be careful posting from other sources in future.

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Yes, all the lawyers only want to make more money.

I saw some Chinese lawyers are distributing rumors about H1B and they always claim H1B is going to be exhausted soon and encourage people to apply for H1B as soon as possible. In fact the truth is H1B still has more than 60% in this year.

They don't put any efforts into the data analysis and the only thing they do is to create more fear and make money from it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.

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As far is porting is concerned, those who wanted to port have done it. And porting numbers will only decrease going forward.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Iam referring to Sep 2012, basically FY 2012, 2011 is history now.

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Hi Teddy,

Similar question....when you say people with pre-october PDs will get their GCs this year...do you mean get GC in their hands or Get EAD or become current (and apply for EAD)??

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

I disagree on both points with Ron G. We haven't observed portings to the level it ws feared. At best it is 4K per year at worst it could be 2K. On the other hand, as per 485 filings.... since PD is determined by when somebody files labor rather than when labor is approved, then the 2007 remaining 485 filings if heavy will only be marginally heavy rather than anything very signifcant.

Not to discourage you or anybody from posting from other website ... (we always welcome objective information and encourage giving due credit); but usually our forum members do pretty good job sifting through data and providing a reaosnable estimate of how dates will progress.

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ron commented today on the same link, that now he expects dates to move well into 2008. Looks like he changed his opinion after oct bulletin released.

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Originally Posted by krishnav

Hi Teddy,

Similar question....when you say people with pre-october PDs will get their GCs this year...do you mean get GC in their hands or Get EAD or become current (and apply for EAD)??

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If I understand correctly, I think Teddy meant that pre-Oct PDs will receive their GCs in hand by the end of FY'12 and not just apply for I485 & EAD.

The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use.


What is this 85%? Gurus pls enlighten

That's AOS demand. CP accounts for 15% usage. Is that what you are asking?

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

What is this 85%? Gurus pls enlighten

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

That's AOS demand. CP accounts for 15% usage. Is that what you are asking?

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And just for EB2 its actually max 3%. so CO gotta take even more for USCIS for E2 intake.

Excellent ... excellent point. Thanks.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

And just for EB2 its actually max 3%. so CO gotta take even more for USCIS for E2 intake.

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We are seeing demand data probably from last couple of years, we do have info regarding annual visa consumption as well and most of the gurus and pandits analyzed this data and gave out their predictions.
....and sophomores like me also predicted :rolleyes:

I think, with the data, which we have right now, it is any one's guess including myself, who just reads, asks questions when needed, but doesn't contribute.

I request all gurus and pandits to get the data about the CO's movement w.r.t VB, to predict the unpredictable nature of CO. Not that I am criticizing Mr CO by saying he is unpredictable, I felt that I am OK to say what I wanted since you guys are all my friends.

Nayekal

:) Hmm it is getting to an interesting point. Just a few posts ago Soggadu was talking about Maa and then Q said he had CO's Maa's and now you are talking about an psycho analysis trip of the CO's behaviour.

Wink Wink...see where this is going. (Clears throat).For the right price (supaari) we can get the right talent to perform an rendition on the CO...get him to a pleasant place (like Libya) and then perform the psycho analysis you requested.

CO: Where am I...
Kidnapper: Let us talk about the Nov bulletin
CO: Dont attempt anything foolish.I have instructed the Mumbai consulate to take care of things if something bad happens to me..
Kidnapper: Err...Let us not be hasty. Let us talk about your childhood for a change...
CO: What.....No...Not that please.
Kidnapper: Is it true your chocolates were snatched from you when you were a child...
CO(curving up into a fetal position) : Stop .....you have no right .

:) A man can dream can't he....Please excuse the stale comedy,just could not help it.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nayekal

We are seeing demand data probably from last couple of years, we do have info regarding annual visa consumption as well and most of the gurus and pandits analyzed this data and gave out their predictions.
....and sophomores like me also predicted :rolleyes:

I think, with the data, which we have right now, it is any one's guess including myself, who just reads, asks questions when needed, but doesn't contribute.

I request all gurus and pandits to get the data about the CO's movement w.r.t VB, to predict the unpredictable nature of CO. Not that I am criticizing Mr CO by saying he is unpredictable, I felt that I am OK to say what I wanted since you guys are all my friends.

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gcseeker, LoL!! I was clearly joking but the funny thing is Nayekal may not be...

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Originally Posted by gcseeker

:) A man can dream can't he....Please excuse the stale comedy,just could not help it.

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nayekal only EB2IC demand has excellent visibility. We still continue to guess eB1 EB2ROW usage. So what we do is not quite "no-brainer". But I wouldn't venture to predict somebody;s behavior!! Besides to be honest ... the discretion has only impacted timing rather than the magnitude of the SOFAD available.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by nayekal

....and sophomores like me also predicted :rolleyes:

...
I request all gurus and pandits to get the data about the CO's movement w.r.t VB, to predict the unpredictable nature of CO.
...

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Double duh..
My request is in a lighter vein, which most of us will interpret in our own way...some take it as a joke and some may not.

Sometimes, I feel we are just over analyzing..Reading too much inbetween lines.

No one expected the kind of movement last year. In hindsight, yes we have an explanation for all the movement and can even say it was anticipated. I have never been in the number game, and I have no facts to support this, but my Gut feeling says that there will be movement 2011-2012 upto end of 2008.

Feel free to beat this post to death if you wish :)

Hi RMS_V13

Eventhough you say you were never been in the number game, actually you are . Just by reading Q's forum , your subconscious mind is calculating the numbers and as the result here you are , your mind delivers the analysis to your gut feeling .

Your are really but partially in the game my friend .

Dear Q,

Could you please share your thoughts on the possibility of me getting current (PD 17-Sep-2007, EB2 -I). I have been an avid follower of this site and the folks here are wonderful.
Thanks so much my friends!

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Originally Posted by krishnav

Hi Teddy,

Similar question....when you say people with pre-october PDs will get their GCs this year...do you mean get GC in their hands or Get EAD or become current (and apply for EAD)??

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by pch053

If I understand correctly, I think Teddy meant that pre-Oct PDs will receive their GCs in hand by the end of FY'12 and not just apply for I485 & EAD.

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pch053 thanks for clarifying.

I believe that everyone with a PD before Oct 20007 should have their GC in hand by Sep 2012. Oct - Dec 2007 folks are borderline but will get a chance to file for their 485's.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

And just for EB2 its actually max 3%. so CO gotta take even more for USCIS for E2 intake.

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Beta nishant... doing great... all the folic acid i gave you is showing its worth now... lol... jokes apart, great point N... as i have previously mentioned, fab five it is on this forum ;-)...

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Originally Posted by Kanmani

Hi RMS_V13

Eventhough you say you were never been in the number game, actually you are . Just by reading Q's forum , your subconscious mind is calculating the numbers and as the result here you are , your mind delivers the analysis to your gut feeling .

Your are really but partially in the game my friend .

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Damn it... so it's like a maze then huh.... i wish i get the portkey to get out of this soon (reference hari puttar) ... on other note, i have outsourced numerical analysis to the fab five and receive reports everyday ;-)....

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

pch053 thanks for clarifying.

I believe that everyone with a PD before Oct 20007 should have their GC in hand by Sep 2012. Oct - Dec 2007 folks are borderline but will get a chance to file for their 485's.

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ok ji ok!!!!...Please stop saying it again and again.... !!!! it hurts where it shouldnt when i read this.... Waahhhh....

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Originally Posted by soggadu

Damn it... so it's like a maze then huh.... i wish i get the portkey to get out of this soon (reference hari puttar) ... on other note, i have outsourced numerical analysis to the fab five and receive reports everyday ;-)....

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Sogaddu, u officially qualify for EB1C now.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

ok ji ok!!!!...Please stop saying it again and again.... !!!! it hurts where it shouldnt when i read this.... Waahhhh....

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Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

Going to work after vacation, hopefully by late afternoon, can catch up more with forum, and use actual keyboard :)

The Oct VB has infused life into us, the talk of hibernate for 7 months is gone!

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

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Excellent summary, it is very pragmatic. If not for porting, I would put Oct 2007 as 100% and Nov 2007 as 80%

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Originally Posted by veni001

Q,
If EB5C is not allowed any visas for FY2012, how do you see increase in EB5 demand ?

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EB5C does not have any visa allocated in the quota. This does not mean that they will get zero visas. What happens with spillover for EB2I-C will happen here similarly. In Q4 of FY 2012, if there are visas available in EB5, then they will be allocated in strict order of PD regardless of country or quota. So EB5C will get all the visas it needs as there are plenty leftover in this category.

Hi Teddy,
What are the chances of filing 485 for applicants who have 2008 PD's....

Thanks, FG

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Just for you Sogaddu (Oct 2007) if it feels better, this will be refined several times its just the start of the year.

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

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So the dates will only move till Dec 07 by Sep 2012.

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Originally Posted by familyguy

Hi Teddy,
What are the chances of filing 485 for applicants who have 2008 PD's....

Thanks, FG

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Originally Posted by donvar

So the dates will only move till Dec 07 by Sep 2012.

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Friends this is just an initial assessment. It is purely because of theI140 surge, we all know that it washed out the Aug and Sep bulletins. You would notice on Trackitt that EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals are coming quite fast. I think there is a 15-20% chance for Q1 2008 folks. I hope that this trend can be improved after measuring the approval rates for EB2 ROW and EB1 in Q1 2012. Good luck to all.

This question is for Q,Teddy,Veni, Nishant or any other expert out here.
As a part of BTM is there any chance of PD being made current for EB2 IC any time in the upcoming bulletins?

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Originally Posted by kd2008

EB5C does not have any visa allocated in the quota. This does not mean that they will get zero visas. What happens with spillover for EB2I-C will happen here similarly. In Q4 of FY 2012, if there are visas available in EB5, then they will be allocated in strict order of PD regardless of country or quota. So EB5C will get all the visas it needs as there are plenty leftover in this category.

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kd2008,
I am not sure if that "zeo" is a "zero" for FY2012 based on "Chinese Student Protection Act(CSPA)".

If none is allowed based on CSPA then i don't think spillover rule applies to EB5C in Q4?

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Originally Posted by iamdeb

This question is for Q,Teddy,Veni, Nishant or any other expert out here.
As a part of BTM is there any chance of PD being made current for EB2 IC any time in the upcoming bulletins?

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iamdeb,
I think DOS/USCIS know how to move EB2IC cut-off dates to build the pipe line. So I don't think any chances of making "C" for EB2IC.

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Following is a brief summary for EB2-I by Sep 2012.

Before Oct 2007 - Actual GC in hand
Oct - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 80%.
Nov - 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 50%.
Dec- 2007 - 485 filing highly likely. GC 20%.

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Teddy, this assumes slow date movement from now through Q3.

If CO doesn't believe in builiding pipeline to gather 25K+, he will stop the date right here till July2012 bulletin and that will jeopardize the likelihood of above

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

pch053 thanks for clarifying.

I believe that everyone with a PD before Oct 20007 should have their GC in hand by Sep 2012. Oct - Dec 2007 folks are borderline but will get a chance to file for their 485's.

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Thanks Teddy and pch053 for clarification.

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Originally Posted by veni001

kd2008,
I am not sure if that "zeo" is a "zero" for FY2012 based on "Chinese Student Protection Act(CSPA)".

If none is allowed based on CSPA then i don't think spillover rule applies to EB5C in Q4?

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I think its highly unlikely that the CSPA would be so restrictive. A country may not be allocated any visas in the quota but to debar it from getting any visas from spillover seems a bit too much.

Take a look at http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY07_AppC.pdf

In a few years that restriction will also go away.