I have moved some posts relating to status updates to the Post I-485 Filing thread.
I have also moved the answers to ravisekhar's H1B question to the other location it was asked.
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I have moved some posts relating to status updates to the Post I-485 Filing thread.
I have also moved the answers to ravisekhar's H1B question to the other location it was asked.
Spec
Just read through your trackitt comparison data. Thank you for such painstaking efforts. It looks like EB1 could give 5K and EB4+EB5 at least 8K. The 5K can be consumed by ROW to keep current through Sep 2012. Perhaps 8K is what EB2IC receives? Wouldn't that bring the dates at least to Jan 2008 by Sep 2012? Am I missing something?
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks for the compliment. It has been quite challenging this year to know how many "real" approvals that converts to.
I think what you are potentially missing is that all those numbers from EB4/EB5 and EB1 (and more) have already been effectively allocated to EB2-IC for approvals made to date. Realistically, there is very little chance of any more visas being available to EB2-IC this year.
I think EB2-IC has already received at the lower end of 23-25k visas before becoming Unavailable.
Using 23k, Spillover required to service that number is 23.0 - 5.6 = 17.4k
That means, using your numbers, EB2-ROW has to provide 17.4 - 13.0 = 4.4k of spillover to EB2-IC in addition to the 13k provided by EB4/EB5/EB1.
The EB2-WW allocation is 34.4k, so if EB2-WW were to exceed 30k then they would have to retrogress.
As best I can tell, EB2-ROW seems to be heading for around 25-26k at the current rate and EB2-MP might use 3-4k based on historic figures.
It would be very very close. The error margin in the figures easily covers both possibilities.
For reference, EB2-WW might have used 33.3k in FY2011, if EB2-IC used 33.5k.
In fact, I am not sure EB4/EB5 will provide 8k spare visas. Last year saw an unusually low number of EB4 approvals, considering EB4 reached the limit in FY2009 and slightly exceeded it in FY2010. Of course, it is virtually impossible to tell, but that fact does worry me. I have never seen any information about EB4 usage during the year, so you might well be right.
A saving grace might be if some of the ongoing problems in EB5 do not get resolved. USCIS have changed the rules recently which has led to a backlog of cases. I feel a Class Action Lawsuit is possible if it isn't sorted out, but that takes time.
It is also worrying that CO even mentioned the possibility of EB1 having a Cut Off date at the end of the year. It may be bluff, but it speaks of the potential for more EB1 approvals than I am expecting (35-36k at current rate).
To be honest, I can't quite work that one out. Even if CO had mentally allocated any unused EB4/EB5 visas for EB2-IC, the law is clear. Spare visas from EB4/EB5 must fall up for use by EB1 first. Using your number of 8k spare visas from EB4/EB5, EB1 could only retrogress if they used more than 48k visas, which I don't think is possible unless the entire backlog was also cleared. Very odd.
If EB2-WW does have a Cut Off Date imposed in the July Bulletin, as some have suggested, that would be earlier than I had expected. It might mean either EB2-IC approvals are higher than I have calculated, or EB2-WW approvals are higher than I have calculated, or not as much Spillover will be available as I thought, or a combination of all the previous.
July 2012-Demand Data released:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
EB2ROW:250
EB2I--17850
EB2C:4100
EB2IC June DD to July difference--->6250, uscis pre-ajudicated 6250 applications in May
Openaccount,
Thanks for the heads up on the demand data. Based on the EB2 ROW cumulative demand of 250, I don't see that category retrogressing, at least in July. May be that news was a rumor after all. Let's wait for the official visa bulletin.
Quote:
Originally Posted by openaccount
So this is good data. By now all cases probably made their way into demand data. Given that this is "documentarily qualified" demand - we can't be certain. But probably all cases filed during the surge are probably in there.
Some nuggets:
1. EB2IC for 2008 is a very telltale. 12K outstanding => real overall demand was 18K (if we assume based on trackitt that 1/3rd already received their GCs) =>1.5K per month
2. EB2IC for 2007 and prior is 4K. => at least following number from 2007 were approved - 13K backlog + 1.5K per month * 4 months - 4K = 15K.
3. Add the 6K for 2008, that brings total EB2IC approvals for 2012 so far = 21K.
4. That is approx 10K less than what EB2IC received last year.
Does that mean EB2IC will receive 10K this more through rest of the year? I would like ot believe so based on 140 data I had earlier produced. But trackitt EB1 and EB2ROW data runs against it. The fallacy with trackitt data is that people tend to register more when there is frenzy. So the ratios move all over the place.
My gut feel is EB2IC certainly should receive 10K between now and Sep 2012 thereby moving dates well into Q2 2008.
EB2-WW numbers in the Demand Data will only start increasing after any retrogression has taken place.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Until then, the Demand Data pretty much only shows the Demand for Consular Processed cases, since any AOS cases can be approved immediately and therefore never show in the Demand Data. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...Data-Represent
Spec,
That's a valid point. Let's wait for the official visa bulletin and see which theory holds up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
My 2 cents analysis based on the demand data................
From the demand data, the number of applications that were processed in EB2 cat for I/C has increased by 6350. Which means the USCIS processed extra 6350 in month of May. Last year in one of the report the USCIS stated that they distrubuted work equally and were processing files close to 30000 per quarter, which means they were processing 10K per month. Based on that statement we can assume they processed 10k applications and out of which 6350 are EB2 I/C and 3650 are remaining catogeries and this tells that they are having less demand. However one thing that is concerning to me is the 30 and 50 applications that were processed for other countries, are they are waiting for visa number to be avaliable or did these applications came as upgrade process. If they are upgrade then it should not be much concern, if they are non upgarde and waiting for Visa number then we are doomed, that is telling that visa numbers are unavaliable till Oct 2012.
Attachment 246
Guys,
The following link provides some interesting EB5 statistics.
http://www.cis.org/north/strange-num...st-green-cards
There were only 375 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,150 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011. That's approximately 32% reduction in EB5 numbers on YOY basis. If these numbers hold up for the second half of FY 2012, can we expect EB5 to release 9,000 visas towards this year's spill-over?
sportsfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
If the algorithm were that simple, you are correct.
CO is also allowed to use estimates of future demand as well. If he didn't, it becomes too late to take corrective action.
CO can only "see" the CP cases with certainty, since they are reported in advance to him by the Consulates.
For AOS, he has to rely on information from USCIS, historical trends or perhaps just gut feel. Once that is added onto the 250 in the Demand Data, the numbers may be more than he thinks are available for the month.
vedu,Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
Those numbers are for the I-829 to remove conditions on conditional GCs already given.
The GC was actually given 2 years previously. Even if they don't apply for conditions to be removed, it doesn't affect the current or past year EB5 usage.
For that, you need to look at the I-526 numbers, which show an increase in numbers.
If we compared I-526 applications as you have above for I-829, there were 2,771 EB5 applications filed in the first half of FY 2012 as compared to 1,600 applications filed in the first half of FY 2011.
That's approximately 73% increase in EB5 numbers on YOY basis.
Aren't statistics a wonderful thing!!
Spec,
Thanks for the explanation. While I was posting my last post, I had the fear about very same thing and you confirmed it! These numbers are wasted visas then...right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
sportsfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Very simplistically, here's my take.
There are about 48k EB2-IC cases in the May USCIS Inventory.
The Demand Data shows 22k pre-adjudicated to date. At 6k / month, it should take about a further 4 months for USCIS to pre-adjudicate all the remaining cases.
That is very good. That way they would have pre-adjudicated all remaining cases by september. Hopefully that will help them take wise decisions on date movement in fy 2013. USCIS actually cannot expect for anything better. They will have 48K preadjudicated cases for eb2-ic all the way until April 2010. So it should be a cakewalk for them to decide date movement at least for another 2 yrs.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Assuming inventory numbers to be correct is big assumption.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
suninphx,Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Agreed, which is why I said it was simplistic, but ball park it probably holds good I think, even if the numbers rise a bit. USCIS pre-adjudicated 15.5k in the previous 2 months according to the Demand Data.
Any reason to think it could be way off?
Unfortunately I have not seen any corelation between demand data and inventory. In frenzy days or otherwise. For me, demand data is what matters end of the day, because that is going to drive COD. That way we do not have to worry if USCIS is cleaning up 'approvals' from inventory data.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Sport, here is what i think.
#1 - Yes. Not all 2009 cases are there in demand data. We can safely assume that 2009 will have similar density as 2008 which is about 1.5K per month.
#2 - You are right - I didn't include PWMBs. They would be probably 2K in 2012.
#3 - I think it is easier to predict based on prior year. I would ask what has changed fundamentally? Is there a reason EB2ROW demand could increase. I think not. Is there a reason EB1 demand could increase - actually yes. Is there evidence? Indirectly yes in the form of trackitt. Directly in the form of 485s filed ... the evidence is 20% reduction than an increase. How about EB4/5? They may not yield 10K. But 6K is quite possible IMHO. So if not 67K, EB2 could be looking at 57K => ~28-30K for EB2IC.
Thank you for reminding me to be conservative. I guess - of late i haven't been :(
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.g...rterlydata.cfm
This has been updated to cover determinations issued between October 1, 2011 through March 31, 2012.
Spec, we need your analysis!!!
20,659 cases processed. 16,596 approved (certified+certified-expired). 80% approved. 20% Denied or withdrawn. Quite a few I guess went into audit. Who knows how many are those.
From the approved: 925 are from China, 8868 from India. India-China are 59% of the total. This is mind boggling. So ROW-M-P are just 41%.
kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
I have now updated the PERM posts in FACTS & DATA with the updated figures. The latest PDs Certified have a January 2012 PD, but the numbers are so low as to not be significant.
Eventually, I will update the PWD figures, but that might be a while.
Thank you, Spec!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thanks Kd,Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Appropriate sections under FACTS AND DATA are updated.
Below is a quick summary of FY2012 Half-Year PERM Data compared to to FY 2010 & FY 2011 data.
FY2010:
Completions = 81,412
Certified = 70,237
Denied/Withdrawn = 11,175 (13.72%)
FY2011:
Completions = 73,207
Certified = 59,863
Denied/Withdrawn = 13,344 (18.22%)
FY2012: Half-Year
Completions = 20,825
Certified = 16,617
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,208 (20.20%)
It is evident that filings decreased (certifications delayed?) and denial rate increased.
Monthly PERM approvals vs i140 receipts can be found here, data points towards higher EB1 demand!
veni
That's mindboggling data collection & crunching! It might be worthwhile to put the takeaway about what the data might be telling - in English. The reason being - it took me good 5-10 minutes to figure out what it was. So perhaps somebody new might not understand it at all.
Great compilation. I can't find any flaw in that logic. Great job!
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Veni,Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Just to add to your data and findings.
Doesn't that just reflect the fact that both FY2010 and FY2011 were years when the OFLC were clearing the backlog?
Interestingly, if you look at Certifications for the CY Priority Date Year, then they seem quite similar (Note:- 2011 is probably not fully complete yet).
PD 2009 - 48,737 Completions - 41,974 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 13.88%
PD 2010 - 49,201 Completions - 43,407 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.78%
PD 2011 - 48,515 Completions - 42,714 Certified - Denials/Withdrawn = 11.96%
I fully accept that those older cases cleared during the Backlog reduction exercise may have temporarily increased overall I-140 receipts in the system in EB2/EB3 . It isn't clear to me what the split might have been between EB2/EB3 and therefore how many might have led to the ability to actually file an I-485. i.e. has it resulted in a temporary hump in EB2-WW numbers and how long does that take to work through?
The balance has been steadily shifting to more IC (mainly I) cases and less WW cases. It would be interesting to know the EB2/EB3 split for EB2-ROW. How much has it shifted away from EB3 and towards EB2 over time?
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
I agree it's kind of high level picture, bottom line data is pointing towards higher EB1 usage!
I think Spec already point this from his data analysis.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
I agree with you, CY totals are very similar, and the shift is more towards IC (EB2).
With the current data points it is not that easy to figure out EB2/EB3 split for EB-ROW.
In addition, i am unsure about surge in i140 increase is entirely from EB1 or from EB2-NIW as well?
I have now updated the PWD Data in FACTS & DATA with the FY2012 Q2 data.
Spec,Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Thank you for the update, PWD Data also confirms the shift to EB2.
Now this is "original":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18327493
This has been featured on Fareed Zakharia GPS as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by usernameisnotvalid
Article indicating record usage of EB5 - expecting EB5 usage to be 6K this year.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citize...092400861.html
Saw this interesting post on Murthy's site...not sure how many have read it...provides good info on if prior I140s can be revoked and retention of earlier PDs.
http://www.murthy.com/2012/05/11/eb2...nline-degrees/
Strange that they haven't published Visa Bulletin yet...
Thanks Kanmani!Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Thank you Prabhas. Both are doing well by God's grace.Quote:
Originally Posted by Prabhas
Thanks Vizcard. Totally agree. Moments like these make us realize what life's real priorities are.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Thanks a lot Q! The support and love we get from this forum is amazing. Cheers!!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5733.html
Employment- Based All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed CHINA- mainland born INDIA MEXICO PHILIPPINES
1st C C C C C
2nd 01JAN09 U U 01JAN09 01JAN09
3rd 22JUL06 22SEP05 22SEP02 22JUL06 08JUN06
visa bullitien is published
The July VB is out. http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5733.html
EB2-WW has retrogressed to 01JAN09 !!!
That basically says there are no visas left for EB2 this year.Quote:
D. EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
Continued heavy demand for numbers in the Employment Second preference category has required the establishment of a Worldwide cut-off date for the month of July. This action has been taken in an effort to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Should there be an increase in the current demand pattern, it may be necessary to make this category completely “unavailable” prior to September 30, 2012.
The China and India Employment Second preference categories are already “unavailable”, and will remain so for the remainder of the fiscal year.
Co has really screwed the pooch this year!!
I was wondering why there had been no EB2-WW approvals later than June 2, 2012. Maybe this is the reason.
Does that mean when spillover is available it goes to first IC as they are most retrogressed?
And EB2-WW will get the new visas in the next fiscal year when new set is avilable?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
Spec thanks for posting and giving everyone a heads up. Basically the numbers are in short supply, lets hope that EB1 does not retrogress. You are correct basically EB2 as a whole is done for the year as hardly any pre 2009 ROW cases should be there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spectator
In the spillover pyramid EB2 ROW comes higher than EB2 retrogressed so it can potentially absorb any generated spillover from EB1 and EB5. Starting next year in Oct we have to keep a close eye on EB2 ROW forward movement because until Eb2 ROW becomes current again we cannot expect any spillover to EB2 I/C.