EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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Originally Posted by cantwaitlonger

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...2011-april.pdf

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cantwaitlonger,

A great find!

It gives insight into the number of approvals from local offices, even if we don't know which EB Category or Country they are in.

It shows how the backlog has reduced, the number of cases that were Current and could be approved from the LO itself. It also shows the Approval /Denial rate.

It perhaps also shows a baseline of cases that are now pending on a monthly basis after the USCIS memo requesting pre-adjudicated cases were sent to TSC.

I don't think I have ever seen a document giving such a detailed peek into the Local Office processing.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

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If you look at this document... the denial rate is around 12 %...Oct 10 to Mar 11 only data...

Emp based 485 receipts = 150,227 (damn...isnt 140K for whole year???????????)
approval = 132,603

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

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So in Q1, approvals are 24,040 and in Q2 end, 45,981. In Q3 we say at last I and C backlog reduction by more than 20k, so I would put something like 30k for Q3. And one 485 approval means one visa number, so until Q3, 70k only. That don't sound right. I am missing something major here.

About 140, in two Q if we see 30k approvals, and if we extrapolate blindly and say 60k approvals for FY, and each application has a 2 dependant factor, then 120k, which shows demand is not that less, but scrutiny, denials etc is more.

Guys, what thoughts.

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Originally Posted by nishant2200

man they are denying a lot!

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True, but they were sent to a Local Office for a reason. We might expect the denial rate to be much higher.

Since we don't know what EB Category they are, it is possible many are in EB4, for instance.

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Originally Posted by soggadu

If you look at this document... the denial rate is around 12 %...Oct 10 to Mar 11 only data...

Emp based 485 receipts = 150,227
approval = 132,603

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Not necessarily! Remember Q's equation. You have to take into account actual pending and denied cases to come to a conclusion. We cannot do that based on just receipts and approvals. The approvals may include cases received last year.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Not necessarily! Remember Q's equation. You have to take into account actual pending and denied cases to come to a conclusion. We cannot do that based on just receipts and approvals. The approvals may include cases received last year.

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ok... but 132K approvals this year already... doesnt that number leave us with 8K (assuming 140K to be total for EB category) for rest of two quarters?....something is not right...either my understanding or the numbers printed...

Thanks for the info KD. However, I am curious about this: How can Approvals be more than Receipts? Or do they count the Approvals for the each individual(s) in a 485 app?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

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Thanks KD. This is yet another great find.

Two GOOD observations (and I am sorry I have to be quick since very busy in the work).

1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.
2. Luckily enough EB5 is not going to lose any of last years sofad. So we will get all of that it looks like.

So bottomline .... the indications are they are serious about clearing backlog as close to Aug 2007 as possible AND take in fresh applications at the same time.

The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by haripathhi

Thanks for the info KD. However, I am curious about this: How can Approvals be more than Receipts? Or do they count the Approvals for the each individual(s) in a 485 app?

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Approvals also come from pending cases from previous years, especially the quarter before the start of the fiscal year.

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Originally Posted by haripathhi

Thanks for the info KD. However, I am curious about this: How can Approvals be more than Receipts? Or do they count the Approvals for the each individual(s) in a 485 app?

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HP...as KD mentioned "The approvals may include cases received last year" but the receipts are this FY numbers...

Veni

I140 number of receipts 42,096 is exactly matching with the monthly total that you update in Facts & Data section, approval rate is 73% for 1st half.
If we consider same approval rate for EB2, that will leave us with 5k Eb1

Quote:

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Originally Posted by soggadu

ok... but 132K approvals this year already... doesnt that number leave us with 8K (assuming 140K to be total for EB category) for rest of two quarters?....something is not right...either my understanding or the numbers printed...

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You are looking the incorrect line. You are looking at I-485 family based. Look one line above that.

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Originally Posted by kd2008

You are looking the incorrect line. You are looking at I-485 family based. Look one line above that.

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cool thanks... i told ya...something is wrong...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by soggadu

If you look at this document... the denial rate is around 12 %...Oct 10 to Mar 11 only data...

Emp based 485 receipts = 150,227 (damn...isnt 140K for whole year???????????)
approval = 132,603

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soggadu,

I think those figures are for Family based I-485.

This provides good validation of the figures obtained by NIU.

Given it is USCIS data, it doesn't include CP cases.

When it rains, it pours!!!!

Spec, doesn't this usage data raise a lot of questions? Especially if DoS decides BTM for next year. I just cannot fathom why DoS hasn't started building the pipeline. There is no way USCIS can intake 40k cases and process them in last 3 months of the year to avoid visa wastage. The first half of the fiscal year would be a perfect time to pre-adjudicate cases. I hope BTM happens in September bulletin.

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Originally Posted by Spectator

soggadu,

I think those figures are for Family based I-485.

This provides good validation of the figures obtained by NIU.

Given it is USCIS data, it doesn't include CP cases.

When it rains, it pours!!!!

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Spec, so this data does give even more credibilty to the news Q gave us earlier ?

Yes, the NIU data covers 7 months (10/1/2010-4/30/2011) and this data covers the first 2 quarters.

The difference between the NIU number and this number is about 7k. I think in April USCIS approved 7k.

Now all the data add up and make sense.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

soggadu,

I think those figures are for Family based I-485.

This provides good validation of the figures obtained by NIU.

Given it is USCIS data, it doesn't include CP cases.

When it rains, it pours!!!!

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by kd2008

Spec, doesn't this usage data raise a lot of questions? Especially if DoS decides BTM for next year. I just cannot fathom why DoS hasn't started building the pipeline. There is no way USCIS can intake 40k cases and process them in last 3 months of the year to avoid visa wastage. The first half of the fiscal year would be a perfect time to pre-adjudicate cases. I hope BTM happens in September bulletin.

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I agree the ideal situation is to take in new cases sooner rather than later, to give the maximum amount of time to adjudicate them. Waiting till July would be far too late, considering background checks etc.

Remember, the figures are for Oct-Mar and there were constraints on how many I-485s could be approved for China & India and possibly Mexico and Philippines.

It therefore doesn't tell us what the "full throttle" capability is.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments. I was hoping the new intake might be taken in as early as September. Now I am not so sure.

Q,
Thanks for your analysis. What is your personal opinion on the timing of BTM? Is it as early as Sept bulletin or is it more like May'12 bulletin? With PD of Oct,2007 you can understand my anxiety over the same.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Thanks KD. This is yet another great find.

Two GOOD observations (and I am sorry I have to be quick since very busy in the work).

1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.
2. Luckily enough EB5 is not going to lose any of last years sofad. So we will get all of that it looks like.

So bottomline .... the indications are they are serious about clearing backlog as close to Aug 2007 as possible AND take in fresh applications at the same time.

The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.

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I think so.

Everything matched up.

USCIS data shows the total approval is about 45k from Oct.1 to March 30th. The average approval is about 7.5k/month.

Q's news shows the total approval is about 52k from Oct.1 to April 30th. The average approval is about 7.43k/month.

It's really close.

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Spec, so this data does give even more credibilty to the news Q gave us earlier ?

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I agree with S.

The best situation is that they can accept new cases from September.

However, Mr.CO may postpone it to the next summer. He may think 2-3 months are enough for 485 approval. We should never over estimate the IQ of these officials. They may hold off to the last moment.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I agree the ideal situation is to take in new cases sooner rather than later, to give the maximum amount of time to adjudicate them. Waiting till July would be far too late, considering background checks etc.

Remember, the figures are for Oct-Mar and there were constraints on how many I-485s could be approved for China & India and possibly Mexico and Philippines.

It therefore doesn't tell us what the "full throttle" capability is.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments. I was hoping the new intake might be taken in as early as September. Now I am not so sure.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Monica12

Spec, so this data does give even more credibility to the news Q gave us earlier ?

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Monica,

Spell out to me what you believe the message was.

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I think so.

Everything matched up.

USCIS data shows the total approval is about 45k from Oct.1 to March 30th. The average approval is about 7.5k/month.

Q's news shows the total approval is about 52k from Oct.1 to April 30th. The average approval is about 7.43k/month.

It's really close.

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qblogfan, Thanks for clearing that up. BTW, I'm really glad you are on this forum :)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spectator

I agree the ideal situation is to take in new cases sooner rather than later, to give the maximum amount of time to adjudicate them. Waiting till July would be far too late, considering background checks etc.

Remember, the figures are for Oct-Mar and there were constraints on how many I-485s could be approved for China & India and possibly Mexico and Philippines.

It therefore doesn't tell us what the "full throttle" capability is.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments. I was hoping the new intake might be taken in as early as September. Now I am not so sure.

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Spec, in some ways September might be an ideal time. Remember last year they ran out of quota around September 15? That way if they do BTM in September then, they approve only the cases for which there are visas available and rest is BTM. This seems logical to me. But who knows what goes thru' CO's mind.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by qblogfan

I think so.

Everything matched up.

USCIS data shows the total approval is about 45k from Oct.1 to March 30th. The average approval is about 7.5k/month.

Q's news shows the total approval is about 52k from Oct.1 to April 30th. The average approval is about 7.43k/month.

It's really close.

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Spec, this is what I was asking. The 19K for September...if that made more sense now.