Looking at the footnotes within the Oct VB and anecdotal data on the date movements (FB/EB etc), do we think that the dates will move further in the Nov VB, possibly by another 3 months?
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Looking at the footnotes within the Oct VB and anecdotal data on the date movements (FB/EB etc), do we think that the dates will move further in the Nov VB, possibly by another 3 months?
Congrats to all those who became current in this bulletin!! Great to see such movement after the September disappointment.The PWMB word will be history soon.
Is there any chance of the PD becoming 'Current' in the upcoming bulletins?
Veni,
Do you expect Apr 16 to Dec 2007 EB2IC total = 30K ?
Is it not way over compared to 2006 EB2IC total ? ( my total is 20K only excluding porting)
Kanmani,Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
If we add current known EB2IC demand to the projected demand based on I+C monthly PERM breakdown by Spec, that's about right not counting porting.
Above is true with assumption that numbers from FY2012 have been used for this movement. I dont think we have confirmation yet thats being the case.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thats the issue. I really dont buy that story of EB1 and Eb2Row demand peaking suddenly and 12K looks a little steep anyway. I believe at least part of this 3 month movement is from 2011.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
I am happy if they really pulled the 2010 numbers to 2011. But the question is can they really do it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Isn't this what people are asking for, the recapture of unused visas from previous year ? AFAIK this is not a law yet and CO has crossed the boundaries.Quote:
Originally Posted by sha_kus
S said the total demand before Dec 2007 is 20k without porting number. Please refer to S's post several days ago.
If they want 30k, they have to move the PD to April 2008.
Here is from S's estimation:
April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in
June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required
to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Folks & Friends in response to questions from many of you whether there will be another intake or not here are my individual thoughts, I completely agree with Veni.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
- This year saw 30K SOFAD for EB2 I/C so the I485 inventory must be at a level close to this ideally.
- Now this year represented the absolute peak, EB1 especially will peak up, so we may be able to get anywhere between 20-25K.
- Now with this intake looks like the system actually has 12K in terms of 485, so looks like another 10K in terms of intake should likely happen.
- Now the million dollar question is when it can happen next month as well, the Jul fiasco dates becoming current did not happen in a month it took couple of months of movement or it could take 2 quarters. If it happens next month the intake could be larger if it happens later it will be guarded.
Regardless I feel that everyone with a PD before Oct 2007 is guaranteed their GC this year while Oct - Dec is borderline. Going to 2008 will be difficult according to the current indicators but is not impossible.
I agree with you.
Another thing to add is that CO may see how the demand increases in October. If the increase is small, he may move the PD much further to get more demand.
I suspect the increase will not be too much, maybe 2k-3k based on the previous data analysis.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
The way I try to get around this problem is by pasting image OR using "Courier" font.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Nishant this is great typing and a great analysis & find, looks like USCIS & DOS truly believe in actual filings only which would be 485 data in our case.Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Thanks Q and Veni. I checked this morning with my company lawyer and she said I should not have any issues travelling as well and I got teh same information as I got here from all of you. You guys are the best... Thanks and keep up the great work.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Big T, when you say "this year"... r u talking about 2011 or fiscal year 2012?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Iam referring to Sep 2012, basically FY 2012, 2011 is history now.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
If the trend for F2A & F2B is followed for EB, then we will be expecting forward movement in Q1 followed by retrogression from Q2 (i.e. Jan'12 onwards). The interesting thing to observe is whether the pending I485 and the ones that are already pre-adjudicated will get approved during Q1 of 2012. I will be curious to know if F2A cases with PD up to Apri'10 (which was the cut-off date for Oct'10 bulletin) got approval during the 1st quarter of 2011 (i.e. up to Dec'10). I am trying to reason whether this movement is only to take in new applications (i.e. entirely BTM) or whether we will also see approvals coming through in Q1 of 2012.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Great conversation team, very insightful and logical. I have been following for a few months now and finally decided to register. I look forward to continue receiving the valuable information and much needed support from the group.
Cheers!
That's the million$ question. I think we need to wait till Oct inventory is out and also to see if ppl with pre-adjudicated I485 are getting visas in Oct. Right now nobody knows for sure what this is.Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
You mean dates are expected to move to move to only Oct -2007 till Sep 2012?Only 3 months movement in a year?Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
This much is going to be sure shot movement for GC issuance. Dates will likely go further likely Dec 2007 so that a safe pipeline is maintained. I will revise the projection based on how Q1 goes by. Good luck to all.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jitesh
Based on history, As an average the dates are moving 9 months. Every Quarter for sure the dates will move 3 to 4 months. For FY2012, we can expect dates around March 2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I assume that all SO numbers that are valid for FY2011 will have to be allocated by 09/30/2011 right.
I fail to understand how CO can assign the spill over numbers to the petitions that will be current in October?
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
That may not be true for year 2012 for a couple of reasons (and Teddy already talked about it. ... so I am just explaining it in simpler terms).
1. 3 months movement we saw in october could very well be from 2012 quota. The fact is we don't know yet.
2. 2012 we know will have some headwinds of EB1 where the backlog of EB1 will hit us.
3. EB5 in 2012 may show some modest increase will will be headwind compared to 2011.
So the bottom line is - we may not see same sofad in 2012 as 2011. In 2011 it was around 30-35K depending on whether the October movement was for 2011 or 2012. But most of the gurus here tend to be conservative and so lets assume it was 30K for 2011. So next year because of the 3 factors mentioned above the 2012 SOFAD will be 20-25K. That explains by Teddy thinks getting into 2008 will be tough.
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiasunil
Q , is it ok to say if we have 20K spill over we need 20K qualified applicants which can be 25K USCIS initial applications or 25k spill over which translates to 30K USCIS initial applications..
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Teddy : Date Oct 2007 se aage nahi jaayega... ha ha ha...Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Soggadu: Jaroor jayega... pakka Dec 2007 tak jaayega... he he he....
Q : How can you say that... humare pass data hein, calculations hein, analysis hein, detailed report hein, Insider views/news hein ...tumhare pass kya hein!!!!!!!!
Soggadu : Meere pass MAA hein Q, MAA hein !!!!!!!! Aur MAA ne kaha mujhe issi saal GC milegaaaaaa.....
If the numbers are indeed from FY2012 then whatever happened to 27% rule. I think we were banking big on this rule and being conservative saying that dates wont move.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
lol............Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Soggadu you have the most powerful source
Mere paas CO kee MAA hain. Aur usane kaha hain kee Jan 2008 ko bhee GC milega!!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
Agree. The reality is nobody knows for sure WT-Heck happened here. So we r just being conservative. Excuse me for my language.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
Junta,
Let me first say that this site has been tremendously useful, especially for EB2 India people like me who’ve been stuck for the last few years. I’ve followed the VB prediction discussions over the last 2 years.
I have an approved I-140(EB2 India PD 9/21/2007) from my previous employer. I recently changed jobs and have an approved PERM with my new employer. I’m about to file for my I-140(retaining the old date), and was undecided between Consular Processing / Adjustment Of Status. I remember hearing in the past that CP was much quicker and that people got screwed through the AOS route. However, I’ve also been reading lately that these issues have been resolved and now wait times through AOS are pretty quick(2-4 months). CP might take a little longer now?
What do you guys think? If we get a BTM for a month or two, won’t the CP expedite the GC? I’m also concerned that in a BTM, VO might process applications in a random manner. My company lawyers are strongly recommending the regular AOS route.
Meri uljhan ka upaye bataiye!
I agree. I think they have to have some buffer between SOFAD and the total demand. If next year SOFAD is 20k, they may admit people to reach 25k.
Ideally I think 10k is a safer buffer between SOFAD and demand. If next year we can get 20k SOFAD, CO should admit people to reach 30k total demand. If next year we can get 30k SOFAD, he should admit people to reach 40k.
If I were him, I would have moved PD to 12/31/2008. That will give me 40k demand. It's safer and better.
It doesn't make any sense to be so conservative. EAD/AP will not be useful at all for the folks who can get GC in 3 months after submission of 485.
For example, a PWMB guy missed July 2007 event and he just submitted 485 in May and got approved in August. What's the point of getting EAD/AP for this guy?
CO should move PD to 2009 and let many people enjoy AP/EAD for 1 year and people will be much happier and USCIS can get more money. It will be a win-win situation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sha_kus
imho aos route...Quote:
Originally Posted by pichkaari
IMO we should force CO to give explanation each month in clear terms why he made the decision. He is a government official and he owes to the public to explain that his decisions are in line with law. Instead of writing speculations and lies in visa bulletin, he should write clear explanation going forward.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
For eg he could write.
"There were X number of visas available for EB2 for the month of October based on this calculation which is in line with the law. There is known demand from USCIS for Y number of visas. There is a demand of Z visa numbers from consulates. So the dates were moved by N number of days. ............"
NIU has contacted him many times. Every time he replied us bull shit and meaningless excuses. We even contacted his boss and his boss is the same.
He never really understood the law and he is changing every year.
Before 2007 he used spillover on EB3 and he changed to use spillover on EB2 after 2007. Did he give us an explanation why he changed it? He changed the law or he changed his understanding of the law? As far as I know, the law was not changed in 2007. It is such a serious matter and he changed it based on his "new understanding". I can't believe it.
He didn't do any quarter spillover before and now maybe he is doing it. Nobody knows. It's a black hole and no matter what you ask him, he gives you the same meaningless bull shit.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcq
When everybody expected no movement, CO moved it by 3 months, "To generate demand".As far as i know the PERM approvals were quick in 2007. Whoever was in US with approved PERM would not hesitate to file I-485.My PERM was approved in 21 days and i know cases with 1day and within a week approvals. So move to July 15th according to me does not generate any significant demand( it may generate a 100 or 200). If CO is not moving further in next month or two, I strongly believe the move in Oct is to only to consume 2011 leftover.
if the intention is really to generate demand then it should keep moving as Gurus predicted upto Dec 2007 in Q1 of FY 2012.
Q- you are fine. Also I do not have any problems with some one being conservative (over conservative sometimes). ..that does not hurt me. With PD of late 2009 I know I have long way to go. Having said that I will be comfortable buying conservative views when they are backed by data from various perpectives. (e.g. porting , actual convertible PERM-> I140 ratio in light on recession etc)Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
ATL center was slower than Chicago center. Not all the applicants could submit 485 after PERM.
Based on our people's analysis, this VB movement can generate 2k-3k demand.
Mr.CO is over conservative! 2k-3k doesn't make too much difference! If he wants real demand, he needs to move it into 2008 and it will give him 30k-40k!
Quote:
Originally Posted by needid
I tend to prefer this approach especially since we do have stats for a reasonable period now. If we look at absolute number then there are too many unknowns to consider (porting, multiple perms, double filing within a family, ppl dropping out, denials at different stages etc etc) for which we randomly assign %ages which may be way off. Although 1 year is still kind of less, but when dealing in numbers in 10's of thousands a trend should continue.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kanmani
Ron Gotcher says:
Please keep in mind that the USCIS has absolutely nothing to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. This is probably a good thing, since they seem to have problems counting numbers above ten without taking off their shoes. USCIS statistics as an old and feeble joke within the immigration community. They don't really count cases, they seem to throw up whatever numbers they want - irrespective of reality.
The principal issue that has prevented India EB2 movement over the past couple of years has been upgrades by people with older EB3 priority dates who subsequently qualified for EB2. According to the State Department, that surge seems to have abated and we aren't seeing many of those cases these days.
In my mind, the next problem is going to be the backlog of cases with post-August 17, 2007 priority dates. Those folks have been waiting years to file their AOS applications and when the India EB2 cutoff date reaches that point, expect to see very large numbers of new filings. This will slow down movement.
http://www.immigration-information.c...backlog-15263/