EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

Yesterday, I heard one more thing - the age lock for kids - it's not just dependent on I485 submission, but that the underlying I140 to that I485 should be approved as well. So in my case -
1. I have an approved EB2 I140 - Jan 22 2014 PD
2. If I submit a I140 downgrade to EB3 concurrently with I485 once the filling dates open in October, the age still doesn't get locked - until 140 EB3 is approved? The 140 approvals are taking so much time with no guarantee on PP. Is this how it will really work? They won't consider that I have an approved I140 under EB2?

Appreciate your inputs,

Thanks!

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Originally Posted by Immig7

Yesterday, I heard one more thing - the age lock for kids - it's not just dependent on I485 submission, but that the underlying I140 to that I485 should be approved as well. So in my case -
1. I have an approved EB2 I140 - Jan 22 2014 PD
2. If I submit a I140 downgrade to EB3 concurrently with I485 once the filling dates open in October, the age still doesn't get locked - until 140 EB3 is approved? The 140 approvals are taking so much time with no guarantee on PP. Is this how it will really work? They won't consider that I have an approved I140 under EB2?

Appreciate your inputs,

Thanks!

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I believe as long as kids are under 21 on the date FAD is current, the kids are safe.

Hello friends,

A quick question. We responded to medical RFE from NSC earlier this week and USCIS has received the medicals. My priority date details are down in the signature. It's an EB2-EB3 downgrade case.

What's the estimated time frame after sending medical RFE for the status to change to green card production? My attorney says that usually it's a couple of weeks but I have seen cases on Trackitt where some are still waiting to be greened since June after submitting medicals and some are getting green cards within 5 days of submitting medicals. So I am a little confused.

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Hello friends,

A quick question. We responded to medical RFE from NSC earlier this week and USCIS has received the medicals. My priority date details are down in the signature. It's an EB2-EB3 downgrade case.

What's the estimated time frame after sending medical RFE for the status to change to green card production? My attorney says that usually it's a couple of weeks but I have seen cases on Trackitt where some are still waiting to be greened since June after submitting medicals and some are getting green cards within 5 days of submitting medicals. So I am a little confused.

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All we can do is wait and hope

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Hello friends,

A quick question. We responded to medical RFE from NSC earlier this week and USCIS has received the medicals. My priority date details are down in the signature. It's an EB2-EB3 downgrade case.

What's the estimated time frame after sending medical RFE for the status to change to green card production? My attorney says that usually it's a couple of weeks but I have seen cases on Trackitt where some are still waiting to be greened since June after submitting medicals and some are getting green cards within 5 days of submitting medicals. So I am a little confused.

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https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page

It's very variable, but hopefully since you got a medical RFE, they expect to approve these cases by Sept 30.

Unfortunately I am still waiting for a medical RFE... :(

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Originally Posted by abcx13

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...page/last_page

It's very variable, but hopefully since you got a medical RFE, they expect to approve these cases by Sept 30.

Unfortunately I am still waiting for a medical RFE... :(

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Thanks. I hope so. My colleague who has the exact same priority date as mine and also had a downgrade application like mine got an RFE with on the same date as I did. His application reached 4 business days before mine to NSC. He just got his status update today that "card is being produced". So I am hoping for things to move fast for rest of us as well.

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Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes

Thanks. I hope so. My colleague who has the exact same priority date as mine and also had a downgrade application like mine got an RFE with on the same date as I did. His application reached 4 business days before mine to NSC. He just got his status update today that "card is being produced". So I am hoping for things to move fast for rest of us as well.

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That's promising ! My interfiled medicals were acknowledged on 08-20-2021; so hoping to see the next status update by end of next week (fingers crossed)

USCIS Q3 485 data

^Official link is broken but I found this today poking around.


So LIN and SRC total 485 capacity across all categories is ~15k/qtr, maybe a few thousand less. This is consistent across all 3 quarters this year and last quarter of last year. EB has gotten a fraction of that 15k as a lot goes to humanitarian (asylum/refugee/etc) also.

Total EB usage up to Q3 = 75k. USCIS says 100k EB wastage which means 162k usage (262k quota - 100k waste). Assume 10-15k CP and rest are AoS. Means 75k EB AoS still to be issued in Q4 unless they waste > 100k.

Total capacity across all SCs and FOs and all 485 types is 110-120k/qtr for the last 4 qtrs. Subtract 15k/qtr for LIN and SRC, means MSC/FO capacity is around 100k/qtr.

So USCIS will have to redirect a lot of the 100k/qtr MSC/FO capacity (most of it, 70k or so, is used for IR, which they call 'Family Based'though actually most real FB is CP) to EB in Q4 to approve 75k EB in Q4. Some of that 75k will be approved at LIN or SRC (up to 15k given total capacity at those SCs), but the bulk of it will probably be at MSC/FOs.

There are two ways to issue so many approvals at MSC/FOs - 1) you can use existing 'straight' application inventory pending at MSC. Or 2) you can transfer more downgrade cases from SRC/LIN to MSC. The latter would obviously be fairer in terms of treating straight and downgrade apps 'equally'.

We saw some case transfers last week from SRC/LIN. I imagine we will probably see more case transfers unless they decide to just adjudicate the straight apps pending at MSC. We might also not see more medical RFEs from LIN/SRC as they may not have more adjudication capacity till the end of the year at this point.

All of this assumes USCIS productivity stays constant.

Any thoughts / opinions / pushback?

Which address did you send the medical envelope.

What do you guys think about Afghan crisis. Do you think this will lead to more SO wastage. Any senator can ask for more resources to be diverted for processing refugee claims. That will take away whatever USCIS attention has for EB green cards.

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Originally Posted by horizon1012

Which address did you send the medical envelope.

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We received RFE for the derivative application from Field office and sent both the medical envelopes to field office

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Originally Posted by 3nov10

What do you guys think about Afghan crisis. Do you think this will lead to more SO wastage. Any senator can ask for more resources to be diverted for processing refugee claims. That will take away whatever USCIS attention has for EB green cards.

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Yes. Probably, USCIS has always maintained it has limited resources if something else becomes a priority EB visa approvals will mostly suffer with or without intention

And I am of the opinion that there is a bias that tends to find slightest of excuse to slowdown EB-IC processing

Guys,

you probably seen this data already. USCIS performance on I-485 Applications.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2021_qtr3.pdf

120k approved I-485 in 3rd Quarter of 2021. What bothers me is that, out of total of 120K applications approved only 29k applications are Employment Based. i.e. less than 25% of all applications approved.

Thank you

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Originally Posted by tatikonda

Guys,

you probably seen this data already. USCIS performance on I-485 Applications.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...y2021_qtr3.pdf

120k approved I-485 in 3rd Quarter of 2021. What bothers me is that, out of total of 120K applications approved only 29k applications are Employment Based. i.e. less than 25% of all applications approved.

Thank you

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Don't forget in a normal year the total approved GCs are well over 1M of which at least 0.5M are 485s and only 140K EBs. So 29K out of 120K is not materially different from historical proportions. But I do agree that compared to available visas this is low.

The way things are going, I would not be surprised if majority of October 2020 filers never get approved, most spillover visas are wasted and dates retrogress to 2010 once the pandemic subsides. These filers will essentially have the same fate as the filers in 2012 (having up to May 2010 PD) who were lucky to get EAD/AP but did not again become current until the pandemic spillover. Anyone who isn't downgrading and filing their I485 and securing their EAD/AP at the earliest opportunity, whether due to employer unwillingness, being secure with the EB2/H1b employer, or for avoiding EB2/EB3 switching back and forth or the noble cause of reducing "unnecessary" USCIS workload may live to regret it. EAD/AP may not be GC but it is close. You may or may not want to use it immediately but it is a very nice thing to have. Just my two cents.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Don't forget in a normal year the total approved GCs are well over 1M of which at least 0.5M are 485s and only 140K EBs. So 29K out of 120K is not materially different from historical proportions. But I do agree that compared to available visas this is low.

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Why does the link for FY21 Q3 data under 'https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data' goes to Page not Found??

USCIS removed it after publishing it for a reason?

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Originally Posted by Positive

The way things are going, I would not be surprised if majority of October 2020 filers never get approved, most spillover visas are wasted and dates retrogress to 2010 once the pandemic subsides. These filers will essentially have the same fate as the filers in 2012 (having up to May 2010 PD) who were lucky to get EAD/AP but did not again become current until the pandemic spillover. Anyone who isn't downgrading and filing their I485 and securing their EAD/AP at the earliest opportunity, whether due to employer unwillingness, being secure with the EB2/H1b employer, or for avoiding EB2/EB3 switching back and forth or the noble cause of reducing "unnecessary" USCIS workload may live to regret it. EAD/AP may not be GC but it is close. You may or may not want to use it immediately but it is a very nice thing to have. Just my two cents.

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Didn't Charlie/others mention that the dates (EB3 - 2014) will not be retrogressed ? I was hoping that the window of time to downgrade will be available for considerably more time for EB2 2012-2013 applicants.

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Originally Posted by ImmiGiveMe

Why does the link for FY21 Q3 data under 'https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data' goes to Page not Found??

USCIS removed it after publishing it for a reason?

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In addition to being inefficient, USCIS has a history of not being transparent. They publish nothing, they publish late, they publish half truths, they publish wrong things. In short they do as they please. We will never know what was the reason they unpublished. Could be anything.

It may not retrogress until aug/sept 2022 but a bird in hand is better than .... If the Meng amendment does succeed, the flood of EB visas available because of family visa spillover from 2020 and 2021 will completely disappear. Considering:
- Dems have always favored family based immigrants over EB applicants, GOP has also become largely anti-EB immigrant with Miller/Bannon et al. holding sway, and there is additional persuasive argument that the amendment simply preserves the status quo disturbed by the pandemic; and
- USCIS does not process any or most of the spill over for the current fiscal, which seems more and more plausible and I would not be surprised that this may be intentional, aided and abetted by Meng amenmdnent supporters in the administration& Congress,
the rationale for date advancement in EB2 and EB3 India completely disappears as soon as the spillover disappears.
Call me alarmist, but the above is a very rational and plausible outcome. Now, why would Charlie reassure that retrogression isn't foreseeable despite the Meng amendment? Who in the administration wants the backlogged EB folks to wake up and start opposing the Meng amendment tooth and nail before it is signed and sealed? No one.

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Originally Posted by gammaray

I will post one last time without responding to anyone particular so no one feels obligated to write back.

USCIS processing includes third party sites like lockboxes and biometric centers that are integral to the process and can't be done remotely. Applications have to be processed physically at lockboxes; letters, rfe's have to be mailed physically by someone.

But people want to believe its racism or bias that's the cause of administrative delay for all of EB-I categories, and some piling on to just EB1C-I. Widespread abuse in EB1C couldn't possibly be the reason why certain category of people are issued more RFE's or scrutinized more. I must really be stupid (yes I read that) to even think that. Hell American history has is it, and there was a civil war, so it must be true. Hence proved.

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Wide spread EB1 C abuse. Any real proof for it other than your friend's friends cousin's nephew's neighbor's dad's got it and you know that he is inefficient. You are also the judge with access to every single documents on the basis of which USCIS which approved the petition?

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Originally Posted by AceMan

Wide spread EB1 C abuse. Any real proof for it other than your friend's friends cousin's nephew's neighbor's dad's got it and you know that he is inefficient. You are also the judge with access to every single documents on the basis of which USCIS which approved the petition?

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And this from someone asking for proof of bias in USCIS even after people gave so many circumstantial evidences through multiple years

The idea that EB India beneficiaries are less deserving, more manipulative or corrupt than others is plain baloney, myopic self flaggelation. There is also this sense by certain individuals stuck in the backlog that they are more qualified, deseving or honest than their fellow Indians in that backlog. Objective analysis easily proves these notions wrong. Indian EB applicants are hired at among the highest average and median salaries and in sectors more in need of qualified immigrants than most others. Are family based immigrants more deserving? Has anybody seen what qualifies for a deserving asylee? Sikkhs from punjab have been successfully claiming persecution before the USCIS. Random people from random countries successfully claim asylee visas based on merely their sexual orientation. When people don't see the macro picture and see who all get the 1 million visas every year or the 140k EB visas but just the narrow subset of Indian beneficiaries, it is easy to run ones own down and blame the community for and deserving of languishing in the backlog.

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Originally Posted by inspired_p

And this from someone asking for proof of bias in USCIS even after people gave so many circumstantial evidences through multiple years

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In general USCIS have no bias against Indian applicants while every EB1C applicant is a fraud even though the same USCIS is validating it.

Do I sound like a troll ?

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Originally Posted by AceMan

In general USCIS have no bias against Indian applicants while every EB1C applicant is a fraud even though the same USCIS is validating it.

Do I sound like a troll ?

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Gammaray interjected "EB1-C fraud" in the discussion when hardly anybody had raised it. We are all better off not picking this bait.
We don't have to play countries or categories against each other.

QQ to the group - Does the Meng update have to be passed before Sep 31st 2021 to be applicable for the next fiscal year or can it be retroactively applied? Basically my question boils down to when is the absolute last drop dead date by which the update needs to be passed into law to affect the 2022 spillover.