EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2012

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05-21-2012, 03:03 PM
qesehmk

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by geevikram

Thanks Q for some positive news, but what has changed between yest, when it was all gloom and doom and today? I (PD Jul 2008) was hoping to receive my GC sometime next year based on all the number crunching that ppl have been doing all over the net.(**, trackitt and here)
05-21-2012, 03:17 PM
raj888

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)

Q,

The #'s(demand) on the inventory report published last year (May 2011) were around 1K for EB1 and around 200 for EB2WW. By the above logic, EB2IC should have received much more SOFAD then what it did last year.. Is there any reason why this logic may not be applicable for last year?
05-21-2012, 03:18 PM
murali83

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)

Thats great Q. But I would like to ask a administrative question this regard. Lets say CO sees 10K unused visas at the end of the year. But since we have been bombarded with statements that EB2I-C dates will only move in Oct 2012, can he give 10K visas from this year for EB2 I-C in Oct 2012 and still balance the books or if he does not use them by Sep 2012, will the 10K visas go a waste?

Cheers
05-21-2012, 03:40 PM
bvsamrat

My 2 cents. By this year end it should touch a part of 2009. Reason. To adjudicate all 2008 may not be easy as always there are applications taking more time to check and clear. Hence need to generate more demand

Hence it is logical to open a greater slot and see who can get through. That way ensures and generate demand for supply

But 2 cent only!

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)
05-21-2012, 04:06 PM
Mavrick

Q,

Happy to see this information coming from you. My only question is - Why didn't CO foresee this spill over and simply said there won't be any more EB2IC GC's for FY2012? To my knowledge, CO tries to project this image that he is open and honest about things - with you saying this it really undervalues CO's comments.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Vikram

what changed is - the 485 inventory. I had only looked at the trackitt trend and didn't realize that 485 inventory is still out there.

Now if you think about it - the penultimate month of any inventory data give you a good sense of current demand. So EB1 AND EB2ROW are running at 2K and 0.9K per month. That means they can max utilize 36K full year between them. Add another 12K for the sake of - what we may have missed. That still gives EB2IC a healthy 20-22K spillover just from those two on a full year basis. Then EB5 and and EB4 additionally should give another 10K minimum and then 5.6K of EB2IC quota. Thats minimu 36K full year SOFAD.

That's way more than sufficient to carry EB2IC into mid 2008. Criticize guys. May be I am being senile :)
05-21-2012, 08:26 PM
vizcard

Quote:

Originally Posted by abcx13

I see. But you HAVE to be beyond the 6 yr limit? Isn't the first condition sufficient to allow the spouse to work until dates become current?

That's what the proposed rule states.

I'm not going to comment on the stupidilty of that pre-condition though :P
05-22-2012, 03:30 AM
evoori

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Friends, Header updated. After looking at EB1 and EB2ROW and EB2IC demand in 485 inventory report - I am quite bullish on rest of the year 2012. I think the dates must move forward - quite possibly upto mid-2008 by Sep 2012.

p.s. - I also think i was wrong on EB1 and EB2ROW demand. I think all kinds of visa demand has slowed down significantly. So howsoever EB1 and EB2ROW may have been underserved in Q1 and Q2 - they certainly are not going to utilize their full quota.

Q,
Regarding your second point on header
“Q1+Q2 didn’t seem to have allocated more visas than normal. This is actually based on trackitt trend and how much 2007 and 2008 is approved vs outstanding.”
I did some number crunching..
Lets see only I-485 inventory released in Oct 2011 and latest May 2012.. I am looking at EB2IC pending cases for PD in 2007 only. Lets divide 2007 in two parts first ‘till July 2007 (fiasco one)’ and second after July 2007..

EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in Oct inventory = 5500 + 3300 =8800
EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in May inventory = 1300 + 300 = 1600

So, GC issued with PD between Jan 2007 to July 2007 = 8800 – 1600 = 7200 GC (Assuming no PWMB filing, otherwise it will be 7200 + PWMB GCs issued + CP cases ).

For August 2007 to Dec 2007, if we assume same density as of 2008.. (i.e. 1500/month)..

# of EB2IC I-485 filed between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 1500 * 5 = 7500
Pending 485 for EB2IC between August 2007 to Dec 2007 in May inventory = 4350

So, GC issued with PD between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 3150.

Total EB2IC GC issued for 2007 PDs = 7200 + 3150 = 10350. (+ PWMB + CP cases + porting).

They have already issued more than regular quota. Remember this is for 2007 only. So unless they get huge spill over, the chances for advancement looks grim. Don’t shoot me for being pessimistic, I am just trying to crunch some numbers.
05-22-2012, 07:27 AM
Spectator

Difference In Apparent OR From Latest USCIS Inventory for EB2-IC

I've been out of the Country for a couple of weeks and may have limited ability to contribute for a further couple of weeks.

No sooner had I left than all sorts of data was published.

I've tried to follow the conversation while I was away.

One thing that didn't seem to be discussed was the differing apparent OR for China and India in EB2 based on the Inventory figures.

I only really looked at 2009 figures, since 2008 has had approvals and 2010 may not be complete.

China - 2009 Inventory = 2,913
China - 2009 PERM = 2,301

EB2-C 2009 OR = 1.27

India - 2009 Inventory = 13,429
India - 2009 PERM = 16,577

EB2-I 2009 OR = 0.81

Clearly, this could be for a variety of factors, but I would imagine the major factor is probably large numbers of EB2-NIW for China, which would not be reflected in the PERM data, and possibly a slightly lower attrition rate.

For PD2010 the derived OR to date based on the Inventory is China = 1.53 (975/637) and India = 0.88 (4,912/5,554)

It may be something to bear in mind in the future.
05-22-2012, 07:44 AM
qesehmk

First I will explain some of this logic and then will address individual questions below:

If you look at trackitt data based on 485 filings; this is what you get:

Category--- 2012 FY --- 2011 YTD ---- 2011 FY Projected ---- % Change
EB2ROW ---- 605 ---------- 244 ------------ 366 -------------- -40%
EB1C ------ 247 -----------138 ------------ 207 -------------- -16%
EB1B -------123 ----------- 65 ------------- 97.5 ------------ -21%
EB1A------- 108 ----------- 56-------------- 84 -------------- -22%

So -40% reduction in EB2ROW and -20% reduction in EB1.

Consider that last year EB2 overall received 68K!!! So this year if anything that should increase. Even if that doesn't increase and EB2IC receive what they received last year (i.e. approx 30K), it should take the EB2IC dates into mid 2008 by itself. That's the rationale.

What has been allocated this year so far and what remains etc is all good. But step and back and look at this picture. Unless there is some other suprise in store e.g. USCIS clearing out entire EB1 or EB2ROW backlog - I think we shold be comfortable with the big picture and keep faith in movement. Clearing of backlog won't happen for the simple reason that 4-5 months of inventory always stays because of USCIS processing times. That's almost 12-18K for EB1 and EB2ROW combined.

Quote:

Originally Posted by evoori

Q,
Regarding your second point on header
“Q1+Q2 didn’t seem to have allocated more visas than normal. This is actually based on trackitt trend and how much 2007 and 2008 is approved vs outstanding.” I did some number crunching..
Lets see only I-485 inventory released in Oct 2011 and latest May 2012.. I am looking at EB2IC pending cases for PD in 2007 only. Lets divide 2007 in two parts first ‘till July 2007 (fiasco one)’ and second after July 2007..
EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in Oct inventory = 5500 + 3300 =8800
EB2IC inventory between Jan 2007 to July 2007 in May inventory = 1300 + 300 = 1600
So, they have issued 8800 – 1600 = 7200 GC for Jan 2007 to July 2007 people. (Assuming no PWMB filing, otherwise it will be 7200 + PWMB GCs issued + CP cases ).
For August 2007 to Dec 2007, if we assume same density as of 2008..
# of EB2IC I-485 filed between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 1500 * 5 = 7500
Pending 485 for EB2IC between August 2007 to Dec 2007 in May inventory = 4350
So, GC issued with PD between August 2007 to Dec 2007 = 3150.
Total EB2IC GC issued for 2007 PDs = 7200 + 3150 = 10350. (+ PWMB + CP cases + porting).
They have already issued more than regular quota. Remember this is for 2007 only. So unless they get huge spill over, the chances for advancement looks grim. Don’t shoot me for being pessimistic, I am just trying to crunch some numbers.

Yes you are right. In fact you also need to add approx 5K for 2008. So total Q1 / Q2 allocation is at least 15K. But that still leaves EB2IC with another 15K which could easily move the dates into 2008 mid.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavrick

Q,

Happy to see this information coming from you. My only question is - Why didn't CO foresee this spill over and simply said there won't be any more EB2IC GC's for FY2012? To my knowledge, CO tries to project this image that he is open and honest about things - with you saying this it really undervalues CO's comments.

We have a decent history of proving him wrong. My experience is that he gives a story to suit his/DHS's/USCIS's decisions at that point of time. So not to trust or mistrust him - but fundamentally if we need a clear picture we need to go by data rather than word of a man.

Quote:

Originally Posted by murali83

Thats great Q. But I would like to ask a administrative question this regard. Lets say CO sees 10K unused visas at the end of the year. But since we have been bombarded with statements that EB2I-C dates will only move in Oct 2012, can he give 10K visas from this year for EB2 I-C in Oct 2012 and still balance the books or if he does not use them by Sep 2012, will the 10K visas go a waste?

Cheers

murali - unfortunately they are capable of doing anything and nobody will even question them. But I will bet they will not let visas go waste since that is one of their mandates.

Quote:

Originally Posted by raj888

Q,

The #'s(demand) on the inventory report published last year (May 2011) were around 1K for EB1 and around 200 for EB2WW. By the above logic, EB2IC should have received much more SOFAD then what it did last year.. Is there any reason why this logic may not be applicable for last year?

raj yours is the toughest question and I saved it for last! You are actually right. The only two things I can say in response - not sure it helps you - is that A) the inventory report has steadily become much more accurate over time. So the numbers now are more trustworthy than in past B) The visa allocation so far is not unusual if quarterly spillover was applied. Coupled this with 40% EB2ROW reduction and 20% EB1 reduction and prior years EB2IC utilization points finger to another 15K allocation for EB2IC. So how could they NOT move dates?
05-22-2012, 07:46 AM
qesehmk

Welcome back Spec! People are eager to hear from you!

The timing of data publication was no coincidence ;) DoS and USCIS are tracking your every move - oink oink.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

I've been out of the Country for a couple of weeks and may have limited ability to contribute for a further couple of weeks.

No sooner had I left than all sorts of data was published.
05-22-2012, 08:16 AM
vizcard

Q - I dont get 1 thing.

In the inventory data, EB1 has 2010-2012 inventory of ~15K. If they are current why is there so much inventory and if this is legit wouldnt this eat into the addln 15K SOFAD you mentioned above?
05-22-2012, 08:24 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Welcome back Spec! People are eager to hear from you!

The timing of data publication was no coincidence ;) DoS and USCIS are tracking your every move - oink oink.

Q,

It felt like that. The USCIS Inventory figures were very revealing and not particularly good news, considering the size of the backlog to be carried forward to FY2013.

I have a different take on the future of FY2012.

I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date, which means 18-20k spillover has already been used and has to come from somewhere.

I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory.

EB1 seems to be relentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage. I was surprised that CO mentioned the possibility of a Cut Off Date at the end of the year for EB1 in the June VB notes. That would mean that not only had the 40k EB1 allocation been used, but also any spare visas from EB4/EB5. I don't think that is likely, but it speaks of fairly high visa consumption from EB1.

Based on the 68k EB2 figure for FY2011, EB2-non IC must have used at least 30k last year out of an allocation of 34.4k.

Trackitt numbers for FY2012 appear to be holding up compared to last year. Currently, they are slightly higher than this point last year.

I have a suspicion that the spare visas from EB4 last year is an anomaly that won't be repeated.

So if 20k spillover has to be accounted for already and we say that EB5 gives 5k and EB1 gives 5k, then EB2-non IC would have to contribute 10k. That means total EB2-non IC approvals shouldn't be higher than 24.4k.

For me, that doesn't seem plausible. I see retrogression of EB2-non IC as an inevitable certainty at some point.

That means there will not be any further visas available to EB2-IC and the Cut Off Dates will remain Unavailable until the start of FY2013 in October 2012.
05-22-2012, 12:19 PM
vedu

USCIS Dashboard updated for March 2012

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for March 2012. March, 12 I-140 receipts (4,836) are very low as compared to March, 11 I-140 receipts (8,739). Additionally, the total number of pending I-140 applications are very low (13,634) and heading towards an all time low number.

I am definitely bullish on Year, 2013.
05-22-2012, 01:08 PM
geevikram

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for March 2012. March, 12 I-140 receipts (4,836) are very low as compared to March, 11 I-140 receipts (8,739). Additionally, the total number of pending I-140 applications are very low (13,634) and heading towards an all time low number.

I am definitely bullish on Year, 2013.

But aren't we in May now? This info is probably upto Feb 2012. Correct me if I'm wrong.
05-22-2012, 01:34 PM
Mavrick

How does low I-140 numbers in March 2012 have an effect on FY2013?

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for March 2012. March, 12 I-140 receipts (4,836) are very low as compared to March, 11 I-140 receipts (8,739). Additionally, the total number of pending I-140 applications are very low (13,634) and heading towards an all time low number.

I am definitely bullish on Year, 2013.
05-22-2012, 01:49 PM
vedu

Well, I am not looking at any particular month. I am looking at all the available data (monthly demand numbers/ pending I-485 inventory report/ USCIS dashboard) from a macro perspective. I formulated my opinion based on a consistent trend that I see in these numbers. For example, an year ago, when pending I-140 inventory on the dashboard was at its peak, everybody argued how it was going to hurt us in FY2012. Now that it is at its lowest point, shouldn't we argue for the opposite effect in the upcoming year?

I didn't say anything about the remainder of FY 2012, because we have already received most of the spill over, and not much can be changed until FY2013 begins.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavrick

How does low I-140 numbers in March 2012 have an effect on FY2013?
05-22-2012, 04:33 PM
Mavrick

I agree with you on pending I-485 numbers, it doesn't look bad. But, at this point I would say we have few known variables - CO wants us to keep guessing :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

Well, I am not looking at any particular month. I am looking at all the available data (monthly demand numbers/ pending I-485 inventory report/ USCIS dashboard) from a macro perspective. I formulated my opinion based on a consistent trend that I see in these numbers. For example, an year ago, when pending I-140 inventory on the dashboard was at its peak, everybody argued how it was going to hurt us in FY2012. Now that it is at its lowest point, shouldn't we argue for the opposite effect in the upcoming year?

I didn't say anything about the remainder of FY 2012, because we have already received most of the spill over, and not much can be changed until FY2013 begins.
05-22-2012, 05:39 PM
mesan123

Spec,

What is your analysis on date movement for FY2013, i meant where do you think FY2013 will end up at

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Q,

It felt like that. The USCIS Inventory figures were very revealing and not particularly good news, considering the size of the backlog to be carried forward to FY2013.

I have a different take on the future of FY2012.

I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date, which means 18-20k spillover has already been used and has to come from somewhere.

I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory.

EB1 seems to be relentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage. I was surprised that CO mentioned the possibility of a Cut Off Date at the end of the year for EB1 in the June VB notes. That would mean that not only had the 40k EB1 allocation been used, but also any spare visas from EB4/EB5. I don't think that is likely, but it speaks of fairly high visa consumption from EB1.

Based on the 68k EB2 figure for FY2011, EB2-non IC must have used at least 30k last year out of an allocation of 34.4k.

Trackitt numbers for FY2012 appear to be holding up compared to last year. Currently, they are slightly higher than this point last year.

I have a suspicion that the spare visas from EB4 last year is an anomaly that won't be repeated.

So if 20k spillover has to be accounted for already and we say that EB5 gives 5k and EB1 gives 5k, then EB2-non IC would have to contribute 10k. That means total EB2-non IC approvals shouldn't be higher than 24.4k.

For me, that doesn't seem plausible. I see retrogression of EB2-non IC as an inevitable certainty at some point.

That means there will not be any further visas available to EB2-IC and the Cut Off Dates will remain Unavailable until the start of FY2013 in October 2012.
05-22-2012, 09:26 PM
harapatta2012

Spec,

"EB1 seems to be releentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage."
I see in EB1 all, the total pending now 15k, monthly usage is 2k max, that would total max 24k, even if it goes t 2.5 per month now.
How did you come up with 35-36k number?

""I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory""
EB2 non-IC average 2 months - 700/month.It is fair to assume that feb, march 2012 cases are pending and accounted for. So average should be true now and not change.
That brings EB2 non -IC to 12k max/yr, but lets assume 2X factor, still 24k/yr.

""I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date""
-This is speculation or based on trackitt data? Could be true.

I see that your gut feeling is based on CO comments and popular sentiment. Without much thought, I can also see Oct 2012 as when movement would occure, But Q has good argument. I am bit biased to optimisstic view, but there is good reasoning too.

Spec, what do you see movement in fiscal yr 2013?
05-23-2012, 08:01 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by harapatta2012

Spec,

"EB1 seems to be relentlessly heading for 35-36k visa usage."
I see in EB1 all, the total pending now 15k, monthly usage is 2k max, that would total max 24k, even if it goes t 2.5 per month now.
How did you come up with 35-36k number?

After adjusting for the higher number of EB1 applications in Trackitt, EB1 appears to have reached about 21.5k approvals to date (c. 2.7k/ month). See here. If this rate continues, total approvals would be 35k.

Quote:

""I have never found the USCIS Inventory particularly useful to predict future usage of visas for Categories / Countries that are Current. It is quite volatile as I-140 are approved and the corresponding I-485 are added to the Inventory""
EB2 non-IC average 2 months - 700/month.It is fair to assume that feb, march 2012 cases are pending and accounted for. So average should be true now and not change.
That brings EB2 non -IC to 12k max/yr, but lets assume 2X factor, still 24k/yr.

Based on FY2010 approvals, EB2-ROW appears to have reached about 16.8k to date (c. 2.1k / month). If the same rate continues, it would reach 26k for the full year. If EB2-MP use around 3k, that would be 29k for the full year. Using the predicted FY2011 approvals would give even higher figures.

It is not true to say that everything is accounted for in the Inventory for Categories/Countries that are Current. The Inventory only shows those I-485 where the underlying I-140 has been approved. At best, only those I-140 that were Premium Processed have been captured for later months.

Quote:

""I believe that EB2-IC has already received around 23-25k visas to date""
-This is speculation or based on trackitt data? Could be true.

That is based on Trackitt data and adjusted for the higher number of Trackitt applications for post backlog approvals. I believe it is figure that Teddy agrees with.

The USCIS Dashboard data for I-485 receipts is consistent with the numbers described above for EB1 and EB2-non IC.
05-23-2012, 08:05 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

The USCIS dashboard has been updated for March 2012. March, 12 I-140 receipts (4,836) are very low as compared to March, 11 I-140 receipts (8,739). Additionally, the total number of pending I-140 applications are very low (13,634) and heading towards an all time low number.

I am definitely bullish on Year, 2013.

vedu,
One reason for low i-140 receipts/pending application could be due to slower PERM approval rate.

We can't ignore the fact that there are ~27K Active PERM cases with DOL as of 03/26/2012.
05-23-2012, 09:17 AM
vedu

Veni,

Thanks for your input. Since I am comparing every new statistics with the similar statistics from the last year, I was curious how the current pending perm applications number compares with the last year's number. I didn't find the numbers for March, 11, but I did find the numbers for May, 2011. We had approximately 22K Active Perm Cases back then.

In summary, May, 11 has 22,200 active perm cases + 32,029 pending I-140 applications = 54,229 total number of applications.

Fast forward to March, 12, we have 27,200 active perm cases + 13,634 pending I-140 applications = 40,834 total number of applications. That is approximately 25% reduction in the total number of cases as compared to last year.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

vedu,
One reason for low i-140 receipts/pending application could be due to slower PERM approval rate.

We can't ignore the fact that there are ~27K Active PERM cases with DOL as of 03/26/2012.
05-23-2012, 09:46 AM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

Veni,

Thanks for your input. Since I am comparing every new statistics with the similar statistics from the last year, I was curious how the current pending perm applications number compares with the last year's number. I didn't find the numbers for March, 11, but I did fine the numbers for May, 2011. We had approximately 22K Active Perm Cases back then.

In summary, May, 11 has 22,200 active perm cases + 32,029 pending I-140 applications = 54,229 total number of applications.

Fast forward to March, 12, we have 27,200 active perm cases + 13,634 pending I-140 applications = 40,834 total number of applications. That is approximately 25% reduction in the total number of cases as compared to last year.

One thought.

Could this finally be the effect of the suspension of PWD showing up? I have been wondering when and how it would manifest itself.

At some point, for several months, no PERM could be submitted (and thus I-140 at a later date) because of the lack of a PWD.

If it is, we might expect a corresponding surge in the numbers in future months.

As I say, it is just a quick thought.
05-23-2012, 10:04 AM
vizcard

Sorry to digress from the topic at hand but I had a quick question. Does anyone have an experience to share with regards applying for a visa (non-US) and submitting a copy of the EAD card instead of a H1B visa? Any hassles ?
05-23-2012, 10:23 AM
vedu

Spec,

That may be a possibility, but it falls under the realm of speculation for now. Just as we don't show hyper-optimism that is not supported by the hard data on this forum, we should also not show hyper-pessimism without the hard supporting data.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

One thought.

Could this finally be the effect of the suspension of PWD showing up? I have been wondering when and how it would manifest itself.

At some point, for several months, no PERM could be submitted (and thus I-140 at a later date) because of the lack of a PWD.

If it is, we might expect a corresponding surge in the numbers in future months.

As I say, it is just a quick thought.
05-23-2012, 02:54 PM
vedu

Spec,

Thanks for further clarifications. Your post hasn't annoyed me at all. But I have reasons to be bullish about the future. From now on until the end of FY 2012, the focus of the USCIS will be exclusively on clearing EB2 ROW inventory. In my opinion, all those PWD delays, etc. will be accounted for and cleared by September, 2012. Thus, we will start new year with pretty much a clean slate as per as EB2 ROW I-485 inventory is concerned. On the other hand, EB2 IC is currently unavailable, thus, EB2 IC I-485 inventory will also saturate soon and there will be no further additions to it. These two things combined make me stay positive about FY2013.

Please see my additional comment in red below.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

vedu,

I agree that I-140 Receipts are about 23% lower than the corresponding period last year. It may be significant, or it may not be.

To ignore a factor that we already know is going to depress the figures at some time is not very useful either. The fact that PWD were unavailable for some time IS a hard fact.

In fact, the I-140 Receipt numbers have been shown a dip for about 3 months now. That, combined with increased Completions, has led to the number of Pending cases dropping from 20k in Dec 11 to 13.6k now. At the same time, the numbers awaiting customer action have increased, so the real Pending number was 23.4k in December and 17.8k in March.

The last 6 months of FY2011 saw an average of 9.3k cases completed a month, which is far above the normal run rate. That, more than anything contributed to the lower number of Pending applications, since the total numbers completed were 16.5k more than the first 6 months of FY2012. The actual reduction in Pending cases in FY2012 is only 3.9k (5.4k for P+A).

Whatever the reasons are for the dip in the pending numbers, this is actually a good news. It is good to know that the higher than normal completion rate will take care of most of these cases in FY2012 itself. This will be one less thing to worry about going into FY 2013.

Depending when the dip occurs, it may be the saving grace for the numbers this year. Too early and the increased numbers later on will translate into approvals within this FY.

It is not pessimism for pessimism sake - I didn't see it as pessimistic at all - it was merely a discussion point.

I'm sorry it seems to have annoyed you. I won't comment further on the subject.
05-23-2012, 03:24 PM
Kanmani

In addition to PWD delays DOL is currently practising to increase the Audits and Supervised Recruitment . Below is from the faq on SR recently published .

What are the consequences of an employer requesting to withdraw an application undergoing Supervised Recruitment?

While OFLC/ANPC may grant an employer's request to withdraw an application undergoing supervised recruitment and the employer then files a new application meeting all regulatory requirements, the future application for the same foreign worker as in the withdrawn application will be subject to supervised recruitment pursuant to 20 CFR 656.21. Additionally, where the OFLC/ANPC determines it appropriate, all other applications filed by the employer for any foreign worker or job opportunity may also be subject to supervised recruitment

Repeated requests to withdraw different applications undergoing supervised recruitment will be carefully reviewed and may evidence a pattern or practice of the employer's failure to comply with the supervised recruitment process, and may subject the employer to debarment from the permanent labor certification program for a reasonable period of no more than three years pursuant to 20 CFR 656.31(f)(1)(v).

This could also be one of the reasons for low Perm numbers.
05-25-2012, 09:51 AM
Mavrick

I think people have already packed there bags for long weekend - No posts since Wednesday :)
05-25-2012, 11:23 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mavrick

I think people have already packed there bags for long weekend - No posts since Wednesday :)

Yes, Wishing all forum members & visitors Happy holiday weekend.
05-30-2012, 10:01 AM
randomax

[QUOTE=sportsfan33;27409]This is an interesting and controversial topic.

And in my eyes, the people who are getting the most complacent are the whites! Losing the population battle to the so called "minorities" when practically the entire deck is in their favor is simply astonishing.

QUOTE]

Sportsfan, not sure why you think this is a battle? Every advanced country sees a tappering off in their growth rates. In a lot of Eurpoean countries, the growth rate is negative because people don't want to have children. Not to go off topic, but given the explosion in the world's population, the true "battle" is population control, not population growth.
05-30-2012, 10:44 AM
chewbaca

Prediction pls!

Hey All,
Apologise for digressing this intereseting conversation regarding 3012 but If you guys dont mind digressing a little and providing some predictions on when EB2 - India - PD 10-Jan-2008 will be current it'd be super. As of now the dates are unavailable and I could not apply during the rush few months back because I was in appeal.
thanks in advance
05-30-2012, 12:52 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by chewbaca

Hey All,
Apologise for digressing this intereseting conversation regarding 3012 but If you guys dont mind digressing a little and providing some predictions on when EB2 - India - PD 10-Jan-2008 will be current it'd be super. As of now the dates are unavailable and I could not apply during the rush few months back because I was in appeal.
thanks in advance

chewbaca,

I think that is an interesting question.

Please bear in mind that I am one of the more pessimistic contributor's, but I think sportsfan might be a little optimistic.

EB2 China has a lot less applications than EB2 India, which may cause a problem for CO in moving the dates.

Based on the May USCIS Inventory and the initial allocation of 2.8k visas each for EB2-C & EB2-I, China would be able to reach the end of June 2008, but India could only reach about Mid August 2007.

For EB2-IC as a whole to reach the end of June 2008 would require 16.3k plus any further porting numbers and people who missed the last boat. That probably means about 20k in total over a whole year. That also probably represents the low water mark of SOFAD possibilities.

Given that EB2-C can reach so far on the initial allocation, CO may only release 27% of that per quarter (maybe slightly more), or 757 visas. That would move EB2-C to about the end of October 2007 by the end of Q1.
I don't think CO can set a Cut Off Date for EB2-I that is later than that for EB2-C while they are using their initial allocation. A move to the end of October 2007 in Q1 would use about 5.1k visas for EB2-IC.

If the dates were to move to mid January 2008 in Q1, then around 7.9k visas would be required for EB2-IC.

While that is not impossible, it would use 44% of EB2-C initial allocation in a single quarter.

In a low SOFAD year, it would probably mean that visas would run out early again - something I do not think CO will want to repeat.

I expect a more circumspect approach to QSP in FY2013 to ensure some movement in each of the first 3 quarters with the final balance being allocated in Q4.

Now, obviously, not all cases in the Inventory will be approved, but you can apply a % to take care of those numbers if you wish.

To answer your question, it is not impossible for a Jan 10, 2008 PD to become Current in Q1 FY2013, but I think it might be sometime in Q2 before Jan 2008 dates become Current again. However, CO has surprised everybody before, so who knows!
05-30-2012, 01:05 PM
bvsamrat

Yes! It is very interesting. A perfect example to state - glass is half full or half empty.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

chewbaca,

I think that is an interesting question.

Please bear in mind that I am one of the more pessimistic contributor's, but I think sportsfan might be a little optimistic.

EB2 China has a lot less applications than EB2 India, which may cause a problem for CO in moving the dates.

Based on the May USCIS Inventory and the initial allocation of 2.8k visas each for EB2-C & EB2-I, China would be able to reach the end of June 2008, but India could only reach about Mid August 2007.

For EB2-IC as a whole to reach the end of June 2008 would require 16.3k plus any further porting numbers and people who missed the last boat. That probably means about 20k in total over a whole year. That also probably represents the low water mark of SOFAD possibilities.

Given that EB2-C can reach so far on the initial allocation, CO may only release 27% of that per quarter (maybe slightly more), or 757 visas. That would move EB2-C to about the end of October 2007 by the end of Q1.
I don't think CO can set a Cut Off Date for EB2-I that is later than that for EB2-C while they are using their initial allocation. A move to the end of October 2007 in Q1 would use about 5.1k visas for EB2-IC.

If the dates were to move to mid January 2008 in Q1, then around 7.9k visas would be required for EB2-IC.

While that is not impossible, it would use 44% of EB2-C initial allocation in a single quarter.

In a low SOFAD year, it would probably mean that visas would run out early again - something I do not think CO will want to repeat.

I expect a more circumspect approach to QSP in FY2013 to ensure some movement in each of the first 3 quarters with the final balance being allocated in Q4.

Now, obviously, not all cases in the Inventory will be approved, but you can apply a % to take care of those numbers if you wish.

To answer your question, it is not impossible for a Jan 10, 2008 PD to become Current in Q1 FY2013, but I think it might be sometime in Q2 before Jan 2008 dates become Current again. However, CO has surprised everybody before, so who knows!
05-30-2012, 01:22 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by bvsamrat

Yes! It is very interesting. A perfect example to state - glass is half full or half empty.

bvsamrat,

Yes, again, despite the full disclosure.

And your point is???
05-30-2012, 02:31 PM
murali83

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

chewbaca,

I think that is an interesting question.

Please bear in mind that I am one of the more pessimistic contributor's, but I think sportsfan might be a little optimistic.

For EB2-IC as a whole to reach the end of June 2008 would require 16.3k plus any further porting numbers and people who missed the last boat. That probably means about 20k in total over a whole year. That also probably represents the low water mark of SOFAD possibilities.

Spec,

Great post. I for one never felt that you are pessimistic. In fact when I wrote here 3-4 weeks back that FY 2013 will just finish at Sep 30 - Oct 15 2008, I did not take take porting into account simply becos dates are U now. But that does not mean porting wont take place from Oct 2012. So if we take porting into account, FY 2013 will just land somewhere around end of July 2008 for a 20K visa supply (sofad + default 5.6K). I guess I am saying July 2008 instead of June becos there will always be some cases that will take for ever to process. So if we get 24K visas like we got this year, we may reach Oct 30, 2008.

Cheers
05-30-2012, 03:04 PM
Spectator

Quote:

Originally Posted by murali83

Spec,

Great post. I for one never felt that you are pessimistic. In fact when I wrote here 3-4 weeks back that FY 2013 will just finish at Sep 30 - Oct 15 2008, I did not take take porting into account simply becos dates are U now. But that does not mean porting wont take place from Oct 2012. So if we take porting into account, FY 2013 will just land somewhere around end of July 2008 for a 20K visa supply (sofad + default 5.6K). I guess I am saying July 2008 instead of June becos there will always be some cases that will take for ever to process. So if we get 24K visas like we got this year, we may reach Oct 30, 2008.

Cheers

murali,

I'm glad someone appreciated it. It is just how I see it based on the information available at the moment. Cautious or conservative might be a better description. I was carried away with the hoopla one year when the figures said different and I don't want to repeat that experience.

I actually pretty much agree with the dates you have mentioned. If the dates moved like this year (i.e. fast movement followed by U for much of the year) then porting numbers would be limited. As I mentioned, I think CO has probably learnt some lessons from what happened this year.
05-30-2012, 04:02 PM
Spectator

sportsfan,

Thanks for your thoughts. Please feel free to debate away. I enjoy reading your views.

While I don't necessarily always agree with everything you say, I do appreciate that you lay out your thought processes so well and counter intelligently. I hope you feel similarly the other way round.

I do think that the Visa Office under DOS and USCIS under DHS have different objectives. DOS controls allocation of visas and their approach and motives may not necessarily be entirely compatible with what USCIS might like to see. The size of the new Inventory is a case in point.

I do agree that CO did what he wanted this year despite the information that must have been available, but that seemed aimed at gathering as large an Inventory as possible.

I will say it again - healthy debate and differing opinions are a good thing. It makes us all revisit and strengthen our arguments as well as thinking about factors we might not have considered. It also allows everyone to see the spectrum of what is possible and why.

One aspect this forum is noted for is the ability to disagree politely and for there to be no fear of posting a contrary view.

Ultimately, no-one here is trying to tell anybody what to think. Take a large pinch of salt and make your own mind up based on the variety of thoughts and data available.
05-30-2012, 05:06 PM
bvsamrat

Apologies. Spectator. I did not mean to disrespect you. (Always, It pays to be pessimistic for a forecastor as even it turns wrong, no one will mind it)

But you have solid reasoning behind your analysis and I can not question beyond ny abilities.

Buy anyway, my take is that (w/o calculations), the procedure of 485 processing may be so time consuming that it will force the CO to forward the dates again in Q1- FY2013 to atleast to mid 2008, to use the Visa numbers supply. If someone has an estimate of approved and adjudicated numbers right now(or can predict up to Sepember 2012), then that will be uselful to know.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

bvsamrat,

Yes, again, despite the full disclosure.

And your point is???
05-30-2012, 05:17 PM
qesehmk

Sportsfan - what you wrote above is quite comic yet so sad truth. Which is why it is so important to bring clarity to this whole process and make sure people understand implications on their life and career. Thanks for sharing :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Ultimately, no-one here is trying to tell anybody what to think. Take a large pinch of salt and make your own mind up based on the variety of thoughts and data available.

Spec - so true. Again - I think that's what people need to understand. None of us have crystal balls. We only have vague pointers that we use to make an "intelligent guess".

bvsamrat - no worries about your post. I would take Spec's point about "what's the point" completely as a matter of fact. I am sure he only wanted to understand what exactly you wanted to say.
05-30-2012, 05:34 PM
murali83

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

murali,

I'm glad someone appreciated it. It is just how I see it based on the information available at the moment. Cautious or conservative might be a better description. I was carried away with the hoopla one year when the figures said different and I don't want to repeat that experience.

I actually pretty much agree with the dates you have mentioned. If the dates moved like this year (i.e. fast movement followed by U for much of the year) then porting numbers would be limited. As I mentioned, I think CO has probably learnt some lessons from what happened this year.

Spec,

On the optimistic side, is there any chance that the inventory released on May 3, 2012 has some already approved cases that have been counted as part of the pending inventory.

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