Printable View
Gurus...one question.
My wife is on H4 and planning to start her residency next summer (~ June-July 2012). I am wondering if it is safe for us to assume that she will have atleast EAD in hand by next June (thus no need for H1 or J1 visa). To have EAD in hand by June 2012, when is the latest I should be able to file for I-485 (My PD is 28 Sep 2007). Thanks!
Quote:
Originally Posted by druvraj
Mine is 6th Jan 2008 :). Altough I know the wait for GC is 2 years but I really hope to get EAD & AP much faster so I can attend my brothers engagement in March next year with no worry of getting H1 stamping done. Do wishes really come true :)??
rahil,Quote:
Originally Posted by rahil1
Congrats!
rdsingh,Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
Chances for EAD are 100%.
congratulations!
I understand your feelings! It's great to know you are current!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
Congratulations Pch, Leo, Gcdespo, Rahil, Gcseeker, 03may07 and anyone else that I'm forgetting right now :)
Thank you Soggadu, Veni, beiber, mesan behen, Q, Qblogfan and others :)
Here's sincerely hoping we all get our GC soon and there's more & more movement in the coming visa bulletins *fingers crossed*
Something tells me there should be more movement in Nov and Dec vb :) Hopefully, my gut feeling is right....
Teddy our friend you are almost there. Q, Spec, Veni, Nishant, & all my fellow comrades; thanks for all your great & self-less work. This journey will soon end but I'll always remember our friends.
“If life's journey be endless where is its goal? The answer is, it is everywhere. We are in a palace which has no end, but which we have reached. By exploring it and extending our relationship with it we are ever making it more and more our own. The i” - Rabindranath Tagore quotes (Indian Poet, Playwright and Essayist, Won the Nobel Prize for Literature in 1913, 1861-1941)
Life's full of surprises & reminds us not to loose hope. By the way, I just got current. Very emotional moment I have not visited India since last 10 years.
Peace be upon you!
Agree w Veni. EAD 100% by Jun 2012. GC 100% by Sep 2012.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
imechanix congrats to you too!! Haven't visited india in 10 years? Dont mean to intrude if personal problems. But otherwise why?Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
I am glad to know you can visit India after 10 years. I understand the pain of waiting.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
My firm lawyers, boss and relatives advised me not to leave until I receive my GC due to my Muslim name & possibility of being subjected to extra scrutiny and getting stuck in India. Few of my relatives having similar names got stuck for 6 months and more. Its unfortunate but i deeply regret and cannot forget the innocent lives lost on 9/11.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
All the best. Thanks for ur kind words.
I am still wrecking my brains on this movement. What is the idea behind it, what is in CO's mind?!
1. Is it possible that this can utilize numbers from FY 2011 in case visas were going to be wasted
2. Is this for quarterly SO projection
3. Is this just to get PWMB in, and based on how many PWMB come in, CO will do the next intake movement.
Some lessons I think we can take:
1. CO can and will move dates to take in inventory, purely justifying it on this very reason, to generate demand, he doesn't really need a trigger or a big deal reason
2. CO is sensitive to workload on USCIS and movements will be in short bursts, I feel
3. CO is aware of PWMB concept
4. CO has a handle with CIS on how many 485s come in, these new 485s will take sometime to show up in demand data, yet the language in VB indicates, he wants to take in intake until there is enough demand
Doubts:
1. What is enough demand?
2. What is the plan behind honoring this 3 month movement, since this particular territory is mainly of pre-adjudicated 485s. Is he alloting something leftover from previous FY, is he doing quarterly SO early on, is he giving out the 5.5k qouta in one shot to get to the tipping point, and .... Etc
3. What will be timing of his next move
Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
I understand. One of my colleague is stuck in stamping, and we are guessing its because he is muslim, and from Kashmir. Ours is good earning private software company, there is no consulting, no one else has faced any problems ever.Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
Many Chinese H1B workers and F1 students got stuck in China for one year or two years. Finally they gave up and found jobs back home.
It depends on which area you are working or studying at. If your area is sensitive and high tech, you will be checked for sure. This is their method to cut off your communications with your home country.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
imechanix
I am emotional right now after reading your post . Congrats .
Nishant I wonder the same is running in my mind too.
imechanix .... I feel for you my friend. May you be able to go back and visit family and friends ASAP. Your story is one of the extreme stories I came across on this blog. I can't even begin to imagine your pain.
Back in 2001 Sep 12, 2001 was our big employment day at our MBA school. The 911 wound so fresh that none of the Indian students got even one single interview inspite of the stellar careers they had. The year before every indian had received min 3 offers and the average salary offered was 115K+bonus. In our batch finally only 2-3 indians bagged offers by graduation and the rest took anywhere between 3-12 months to find their first job. Chinese students faired even worse.
911 was a terrible tragedy. And it really affected us in a way we were not prepared for.
Quote:
Originally Posted by imechanix
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
CO has taken full EB2 I/C supply and applied in first month of year. If you look at this movement , it is 6k as per USCIS data which is little bit higher than what DOS publishes every month ( Demand Data ). Now in Dec month CO may assume that there will be at least 3k spill over in year 2012. which he may apply in Dec 2011 and will move date to what ever point he thinks. ( No one knows how much he thinks that it can be reachable by End of 2012 ), this is where NVC theory comes in picture. Once USCIS's demand is 0 he will use those Cp cases and allocate extra visas assuming spill over for 2012 and move date ).
If he does this in Dec it will take 4-6 months ( USCIS can make I 485 processing time to 6 months ) for USCIS's pre adjudicate those cases by June / july 2012 and ready to consume Spill over visas. This way he can stop date to where it was in Dec 2011 till July 2011 and since he is conservative date may not retro in Spe 2012 but little bit may fall over to EB3 or he may do little adjustment in July 2012 and move date accordingly ) This works perfect since USCIS has already pre adjudicated most of cases before July 2012 and in last 3 months they only need to offset little bit and approve in 3 months ).
I know many Chinese folks stayed here for 15 years before their first visit to China. H1B visa for Chinese nationals was only valid for 3 months and 2 entries and F1 visa was 6 months and 1 entry. It's extremely difficult for us to travel and visit.
Sometimes I feel it's not worthy of this long wait. How many 10 years or 15 years can we have in our life? How much valuable family reunion have we missed?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q, Nishant, After the good october bulletin, did your opinion change about how soon we can reach jan 1, 2008. My wife is looking for a job, but due to our location she is unable to find one.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
qblogfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
One of our company directors visited his home-country (china) after 15 yrs - education, postdoc, GC, and all. Hope all this agony ends soon for everyone.
- M
Thanks! I hope both Chinese and Indian folks can get freedom soon!
Hope the VB can advance into 2008 or 2009 soon!
Quote:
Originally Posted by makmohan
Singh, you have 100% chances with 0% guarentee.Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
I saw that in July of 2007, there was a backlog reduction plan and PD then became current. Now as of yesterdays visa bulletin the PD is 15 July 2007.
Can we expect that it would get current soon again?
no it won't be current or even may not go into 2008 this year (2012).... Don't keep false hopes....this forum is all about reality and calculations ( don't ask me what I am doing here then) than rumours.... But anyway welcome to the forum....Quote:
Originally Posted by sugada
hey moniiiiiiiicccccaaaaaaaa ohhh GC waaaliiiiii..... Chillllooo rama dudete.... Feeling good for you..... Hey this is my latest happy avatar.... Q's princess likes it .... So I am gonna stick with this for a while .... Once you all get ur GC's..... I will change into new avatar..... Until then .... Sit back and enjoy the ride.....Quote:
Originally Posted by Monica12
The intent looks positive to me to have an intake for ripe demand by SO season. Looks like they are going to do intake soon, they have set the stage in this VB. I think should happen at the very late in Q2 at least.Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
How much, and in short bursts or one big, that's up in air.
A rough guess would be an intake till Dec 2007 end is absolutely needed, and to ensure meeting this years 30k SOFAD, till april 2008.
Thanks Veni and Q,
I know my frd Sugada..there are no guarantees in life except death and taxes:D
Quote:
Originally Posted by sugada
Yes, exactly. And if this is the case, CO has taken a very very gutsy move, and this is at point of no return now then. Intake has to happen if the full 5.5k has been alloted in one shot, I think.
Now isnt there a possibility that at sometime dates may become 'U' or very far back to avoid porters, after the intake and until the SO season.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_usa
I think watching for approvals for people who became current in Oct VB is important. Are they really going to honor this movement, and if yes from where. I am still bit puzzled. On vacation, I need to take a break but just cant stop thinking.
me too.
I am curious whether they will approve 5-6k next month.
If they only approve 2800/12, that means it's just a pure BTM.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
[QUOTE=qesehmk;8391]Agree w Veni. EAD 100% by Jun 2012. GC 100% by Sep 2012.
Hi Q, Veni, Others,
First of all, Congrats to all who became current!! Very happy for you.
I was surprised with you guys's prediction of someone with PD in late Sept getting EAD by June 2012 and GC by sept 2012. My PD is Sept 13 2007 and I was thinking, in case there is no further movement till May/June of 2012 (which is normally when spillover starts), my date might become current then and take another 3 months (approx) to get my EAD (so around Aug/Sept 2012). Is this prediction now becasue you believe there will be more movement in the next few months before the spillover period starts?? Am I missing something here?
Also, if some one gets his/her EAD by Jun 2012, how can he/she get their GC by Sept 2012. Isn't normally a standard to say it takes around 1 yr to get you GC after you get you EAD? Is it because the cases would be prejudicated?? If yes, what is the criteria for a case to be prejudicated. If these are things I can read about somewhere, could someone please point me there.
Thanks.
krishnav,Quote:
Originally Posted by krishnav
Since the new applications (PWMB) will not reflect in demand until Jan 2012, we can not rule out the possibility of BTM in the next two visa bulletins.
Any movement afterwords depends on how CO is allocating visas to EB2IC (all FY quota at once, monthly allocations, similar to FY 2010, quarterly spillover .... etc)
Once 485 is filed, getting GC purely depends on processing times and availability of numbers, I personally know people who received GC and EAD on the same day, about 3 months after filing their 485.
In some cases EAD arrived after GC!
Guys,
What are the numbers or data that are needed to determine if this 3 month movement came from the 2011 quota or 2012 quota. I strongly believe being the conservative guy CO is, he had no reason to move anything in Oct and he would not be obligated to give any explanation to anyone if the dates had stalled at April 15, 2007. Peaking its to July 2007 was not at all required even if he wanted to progress the dates little by little.
My gut feeling is that they expected a lot of applications from EB1/EB2 Row in Sep, but did not receive any and hence they moved the dates now so that visas dont go a waste from the 2011 quota. This is also in line with this forums predictions for 2011.
But to ascertain this further, what kind of numbers do we need, will the next months demand data help us, or what else do we need?
yeahhhhhhhhhh...i got current too....
Thanks Soggadu, felt like joining the penguins to face winter with happy feet, but I read that there were not many applicants for GC after 2009 with start of this govt and I am hoping that recession might have definitely made its iron step there, any of this (or to bring more revenue) if have caused the decline may push up the PD to current.Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
murali,Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Even though we can not rule out the possibility of assigning visa numbers from previous FY in the month of October(Spec explained this before), the chances are very less based on how far EB2IC came along in the last FY.
I don't think USCIS just guessed increase in EB1/EB2ROW demand for Q4'11, but based on 140 completion in Q3-FY2011.
Thank you Q and ssvp22, My client because of some new policies they are strict this time. Looks like finding new contract is better option.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Guys ..... lets take a moment to remember those who died in 911 as well as those innocents who died around the world in various wars or terrorist incidents including the Mumbai Trains and Taj Hotel and Paliament in Delhi and many many others.
Soggadu bhaiQuote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
LOL at you comments to Veni bro......
I am sure the CoD will move into 2008 this FY and I 'guess' it would halt at Apr 2008 at the end .
Hey guys,
I am having trouble understanding how this movement can be due to allocation from next year. If they used 2800 for C and 2800 for I then how can India and china be at the same dates. Obviously C should have been further ahead of I. This has to be some spillover that has been used.
Very good insight GCL! Missed me too.
But here is a question - if the logic is that they are moving dates to create forward demand then if the dates have moved enough to take care of Q1 2012 EB2C demand, the movement could still happen using 2012 quota, right?
PLEASE NOTE - AT THIS TIME I DO NOT KNOW WHAT THIS IS. I AM ONLY RAISING A DOUBT.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gclongwait