EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

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09-09-2011, 08:53 PM
qblogfan

haha, I don't hate him, but I am angry about what he has done.

I hope he can move EB2 faster this year. Hope all of us will get GC ASAP!

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

qblogfan bhai.... On the contrary I think this movement happened because the CO couldn't take anymore of your nagging( hey just kidding)... Do you still hate him bro???
09-09-2011, 08:54 PM
qblogfan

I hope they will approve the cases next month.

I am worrying that they may not approve any, or just approve 2800/12 next month.

He only approved 230 per month for EB2-C last FY.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

October is usually an exception. You will find that October does show unusual levels of approvals - possibly because of leftover visas from prior year. That's why I would hesitate to predict that in 2012 suddenyl Qly spillovers will start. I don't think so.
09-09-2011, 08:59 PM
mesan123

Hmm...May be people will hate him till the day he makes there date CURRENT.. :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

qblogfan bhai.... On the contrary I think this movement happened because the CO couldn't take anymore of your nagging( hey just kidding)... Do you still hate him bro???
09-09-2011, 09:01 PM
qblogfan

I also have the same concern.

If this movement is only for building pipeline, this movement can only admit 2k new cases. I think 2k is not significant for this pipeline at all.

If they move PD to Dec.31 2007, it will admit more than 10k new cases.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanmani

If this movement is purely for building 2012 demand , they should have moved the dates beyond aug 07 also this is the known demand already in the pipeline except for PWMBs .

This movement could not be taken as a BTM too.
09-09-2011, 09:12 PM
gcq

Adding my speculation,

I don't believe CO is really building a pipeline. He is just adding another piece of pipe to his long pipeline of lies. I suspect he miscalculated EB1/EB2 Row demand for September and reserved too many visas for EB1/EB2 ROW. Once he realized his mistake, to prevent the visas from being wasted, he is pushing the dates 3 months to use up the visas that would have been wasted in September. To cover up this he has to come up with an explanation - building the pipeline.
09-09-2011, 09:34 PM
veni001

Looks like i missed the party!
I was busy at work today, i saw the demand data add replied to Q this afternoon did not expected bulletin today! Came home getting ready for the weekend, as my routine(after dinner) came to check our forum to my surprise that October VB is out, EB2IC did move and my PD is "C".

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current. QBF I hope they actually do quarterly spillover this time it will be a great step forward and ensure good orderly approvals.

Teddy,
I was thinking about you when i looked at VB for EB2I cut-off date. It is really tough, hag in there you are very close to the end of the tunnel.

Quote:

Originally Posted by qesehmk

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.

Q,
Let's hope not! since the new filings( PWMB) no way appear in November the demand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu

Also congrats to Veni even he is current now, Bieber & mesan123 thanks for your kind words. The EAD span extends till 15th Aug, 17th Aug was the last filing date.

Thank you

Quote:

Originally Posted by bieber

Veni brother congratulations, also to Monica, pch, leo and if i forget any

bieber,
Thank you

03may2007, I remember u :)

If CO did this last month, the party would have just continued..

Agree.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spectator

Congrats to everyone who has become Current in the October VB and commiserations to those that just missed out.

Spec,
Thank you

Quote:

Originally Posted by ssvp22

Congratulations to everyone who became current. Another 3 months and 1 week for me :(

Thanks to all of you and congratulations to those who will be current in Oct'11.
09-09-2011, 09:41 PM
rdsingh79

Not yet done..

My guess is that dates will move forward in Nov and Dec VB..possibly by 3 months each based on this exerpt "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

I don't think 3-4K new demand generated by Oct VB movement will be enough. As Gurus mentioned before, they are probably looking for atleast 10-15k new 485 filings. This means dates moving to Dec'07 before retrogessing in Q2.

My pd is 28 Sep 2007...so there might be some expectancy bias in above statements :)
09-09-2011, 09:45 PM
qblogfan

I have the same suspect. I think EB1/EB2 ROW demand is too thin, so he has to use the visas on EB2 C&I. Some EB1 cases with PD July have been approved in 2 months. It's a strong sign.

The 1 million dollar question is:

Will they approve all the EB2 C&I cases with PDs before July 15? If they approve all these cases, that means it's not BTM.
If they only approve several hundred cases, then it's BTM.

This is also the first time that CO combines C&I in October of the new FY.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcq

Adding my speculation,

I don't believe CO is really building a pipeline. He is just adding another piece of pipe to his long pipeline of lies. I suspect he miscalculated EB1/EB2 Row demand for September and reserved too many visas for EB1/EB2 ROW. Once he realized his mistake, to prevent the visas from being wasted, he is pushing the dates 3 months to use up the visas that would have been wasted in September. To cover up this he has to come up with an explanation - building the pipeline.
09-09-2011, 09:47 PM
qblogfan

Keep fingers crossed.

Actually I checked the data and Oct.VB only brings 2-3k new demand. It does not increase his pipeline too much.

Everything is so confusing! Let's see what will happen next month!

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdsingh79

Not yet done..

My guess is that dates will move forward in Nov and Dec VB..possibly by 3 months each based on this exerpt "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

I don't think 3-4K new demand generated by Oct VB movement will be enough. As Gurus mentioned before, they are probably looking for atleast 10-15k new 485 filings. This means dates moving to Dec'07 before retrogessing in Q2.

My pd is 28 Sep 2007...so there might be some expectancy bias in above statements :)
09-09-2011, 09:48 PM
vedu

EB2 IC Future movement

I am interpreting the statement in the visa bulletin regarding EB2 IC future movements little differently than others.

The first sentence reads, "The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India". This to me indicates that the current 3 months movement is a natural progress based on the numbers availability.

The second sentence reads, " The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use". I take the word "intended" as "expected" in coming months. After all, this whole statement is about possible future movement.

And the last sentence reads, "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility." This is straightforward. After generating enough demand during the next few months, the movement will eventually slow down, stop or retrogress.

So, the bottom line is that we haven't yet seen the rapid movement. What we have seen in the current bulletin is the normal movement based on the numbers available and most of the cases till July 15th will be cleared soon. And a big movement is on the cards for the next couple of visa bulletins.

Am I reading too much into this statement?
09-09-2011, 09:48 PM
qblogfan

Congratulations to you! Hope CO can approve all the old PDs!

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

Looks like i missed the party!
I was busy at work today, i saw the demand data add replied to Q this afternoon did not expected bulletin today! Came home getting ready for the weekend, as my routine(after dinner) came to check our forum to my surprise that October VB is out, EB2IC did move and my PD is "C".

Teddy,
I was thinking about you when i looked at VB for EB2I cut-off date. It is really tough, hag in there you are very close to the end of the tunnel.

Q,
Let's hope not! since the new filings( PWMB) no way appear in November the demand.

Thank you

Agree.

Spec,
Thank you

Thanks to all of you and congratulations to those who will be current in Oct'11.
09-09-2011, 09:50 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by rdsingh79

Not yet done..

My guess is that dates will move forward in Nov and Dec VB..possibly by 3 months each based on this exerpt "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

I don't think 3-4K new demand generated by Oct VB movement will be enough. As Gurus mentioned before, they are probably looking for atleast 10-15k new 485 filings. This means dates moving to Dec'07 before retrogessing in Q2.

My pd is 28 Sep 2007...so there might be some expectancy bias in above statements :)

rdsingh,

I am kind of feeling the same way.

Based on current processing time frames, none of the new EB2IC PWMB will appear as documentarily qualified demand at least until January 2012!
09-09-2011, 09:52 PM
qblogfan

Add one thing: "Distinct Possibility" means it's very likely the VB will not retrogress.

Another question is: what is the sufficient demand? 20k or 30k?

Second questions is: will USCIS really approve most of the cases with PD earlier than July 15?

Can somebody answer these two questions?

Quote:

Originally Posted by vedu

I am interpreting the statement in the visa bulletin regarding EB2 IC future movements little differently than others.

The first sentence reads, "The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India". This to me indicates that the current 3 months movement is a natural progress based on the numbers availability.

The second sentence reads, " The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use". I take the word "intended" as "expected" in coming months. After all, this whole statement is about possible future movement.

And the last sentence reads, "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility." This is straightforward. After generating enough demand during the next few months, the movement will eventually slow down, stop or retrogress.

So, the bottom line is that we haven't yet seen the rapid movement. What we have seen in the current bulletin is the normal movement based on the numbers available and most of the cases till July 15th will be cleared soon. And a big movement is on the cards for the next couple of visa bulletins.

Am I reading too much into this statement?
09-09-2011, 09:52 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by qblogfan

Congratulations to you! Hope CO can approve all the old PDs!

qblogfan.
Thank you and i am hoping for quarterly spillover.
09-09-2011, 09:53 PM
qblogfan

I agree with you completely.

These numbers will not become demand in 2-3 months.

I think they will use 6k visas on EB2 C&I in Q1. This will be the first time that they use this big number on EB2 C&I.

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

rdsingh,

I am kind of feeling the same way.

Based on current processing time frames, none of the new EB2IC PWMB will appear as documentarily qualified demand at least until January 2012!
09-09-2011, 09:54 PM
qblogfan

I hope you will be approved soon!

Quote:

Originally Posted by veni001

qblogfan.
Thank you and i am hoping for quarterly spillover.
09-09-2011, 09:59 PM
soggadu

so our dear ol veni is a he ? ..... Oh my god... That's a disappointment.....who told Oct bulletin is all about good news ;-);-);-)

veni.... Tum Jo bhi... CongrAts on getting current.....
09-09-2011, 10:03 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by soggadu

so our dear ol veni is a he ? ..... Oh my god... That's a disappointment.....who told Oct bulletin is all about good news ;-);-);-)

veni.... Tum Jo bhi... CongrAts on getting current.....

soggadu,
Thank you but sorry for disappointing you ! :)
09-09-2011, 10:34 PM
svbmanian

Are you sure the PWMB will not be qualified by Jan 2012, when in the past few months people who filed -1485 in june got the GC by end of july. I know a case who got 1-485 reciept in middle of Aug and getting finger print notice this week.
09-09-2011, 10:35 PM
leo07

Congratulations to everyone who will be current on October 1st. Good Luck to people who are on the fence, it's just a matter of weeks now.
09-09-2011, 10:47 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by svbmanian

Are you sure the PWMB will not be qualified by Jan 2012, when in the past few months people who filed -1485 in june got the GC by end of july. I know a case who got 1-485 reciept in middle of Aug and getting finger print notice this week.

EB2IC PWBM for PD2006 is negligible and based on PWMB PERM breakdown, EB2IC PWMB with PD-2007 and was able to file in FY2011 is very minimal (~1k).

It is very unlikely that based on current processing time frames for 485 that any new EB2IC PWMB able to file 485 in October (15APR07 - 15JUL07) will appear in demand data before January 2012.
09-09-2011, 11:03 PM
03May07

Unable to enjoy the happiness of becoming current this VB, becos of payment issues with Vendor(5 months pay) overtaking my mind. Vendor a Psuedo desi.
Thank you Bieber for remembering me and congratulations to all whose dates are current. Good luck to everyone else.
Q, whatever happened to your source? Is he not back from vacation?
09-09-2011, 11:08 PM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Unable to enjoy the happiness of becoming current this VB, becos of payment issues with Vendor(5 months pay) overtaking my mind. Vendor a Psuedo desi.
Thank you Bieber for remembering me and congratulations to all whose dates are current. Good luck to everyone else.
Q, whatever happened to your source? Is he not back from vacation?

3M,
Congratulations, hopefully you will enjoy your freedom in another 6 months!
09-10-2011, 01:10 AM
tanu_75

Congratulations to the July 07 folks on becoming current. Past 4 years must have been especially hard having been so close to filing the 485. Hopefully we'll see dates move into 2008 through quarterly spillover.
09-10-2011, 03:41 AM
Monica12

OMG !!!! Is this really true????? cannot believe it.. I think I just got current.................Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!
Q, you were spot on... about the July 15 date in Sep...just that it happened in Oct instead......thanks so much for keeping my hopes alive :)
Soggadu..buddy...can you please change your avatar now and keep dancing ;0
Congrats Veni ! Teddy, hang in there...hope you get current very soon !
09-10-2011, 04:42 AM
GCDespo

I still cannot believe it.My PD May 24 became current.I am a PWMB.So happy that I am crying.
09-10-2011, 04:45 AM
Monica12

Quote:

Originally Posted by GCDespo

I still cannot believe it.My PD May 24 became current.I am a PWMB.So happy that I am crying.

Buddy, you are not alone...I'm crying too and can't stop :D This is such an emotional roller-coaster !
09-10-2011, 07:07 AM
gcoracle

Hearty congratulations to all of those who are current in oct vb. Hoping that Dec 2007 will be current soon. Wife's 6 years H1B expires in november (her company did not sponsor her GC). She is almost depressed that she has to quit working, come november. Getting EAD will make her extremely happy. Keeping our fingers crossed. You've gotta have hope. Without hope life is meaningless. Without hope life is meaning less and less.
09-10-2011, 08:15 AM
qesehmk

3M, honestly I had given up and so didnt bother to check.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 03May07

Q, whatever happened to your source? Is he not back from vacation?

Monica / GCDespo - truly happy for you all. Soggadu needs new dancing avatar. His current one also is a favorite of my daughter. She bursts into laughter every single time she sees it!!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

OMG !!!! Is this really true????? cannot believe it.. I think I just got current.................Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!
Q, you were spot on... about the July 15 date in Sep...just that it happened in Oct instead......thanks so much for keeping my hopes alive :)
Soggadu..buddy...can you please change your avatar now and keep dancing ;0
Congrats Veni ! Teddy, hang in there...hope you get current very soon !

Quote:

Originally Posted by GCDespo

I still cannot believe it.My PD May 24 became current.I am a PWMB.So happy that I am crying.

Quote:

Originally Posted by gcoracle

Hearty congratulations to all of those who are current in oct vb. Hoping that Dec 2007 will be current soon. Wife's 6 years H1B expires in november (her company did not sponsor her GC). She is almost depressed that she has to quit working, come november. Getting EAD will make her extremely happy. Keeping our fingers crossed. You've gotta have hope. Without hope life is meaningless. Without hope life is meaning less and less.

gcoracle, within 1 Yr both of you will be free of H1B slavery...hope that EAD comes much sooner.
09-10-2011, 08:16 AM
mesan123

congrats monica .... enjoy the moment..

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

Buddy, you are not alone...I'm crying too and can't stop :D This is such an emotional roller-coaster !
09-10-2011, 08:17 AM
neospeed

wow this is really unexpected. Best of luck to everyone who are current
09-10-2011, 08:29 AM
rdsingh79

I am sure this is true for everyone here....emotions are building up behind a huge wall for last so many years...and the wall will be broken the day I become current (sep 2007)...or when i get GC in hand.:D.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

Buddy, you are not alone...I'm crying too and can't stop :D This is such an emotional roller-coaster !
09-10-2011, 08:32 AM
natvyas

ALL,

what does this mean with regards to further (future) movement?

Regards
Nat
09-10-2011, 09:23 AM
druvraj

My PD date is feb 2008 and after the Sept bulletin I have prepared myself for 2 years wait (Which I might have to still) but when such news comes this becomes a true roller coaster ride which is what I hate. I will certainly not complain if I get it earlier but if not then the expectation becomes hard to manage. All in all I guess everyone who intents to immigrate has to go through this ride. Congrats to all to got it and hope rest of us get it soon.
09-10-2011, 09:26 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by natvyas

ALL,

what does this mean with regards to further (future) movement?

Regards
Nat

natvyas,
Looks likes USCIS/DOS worked out a plan to move EB2IC cut-off dates based on EB1/EB2ROW/EB5 demand.
09-10-2011, 09:28 AM
veni001

Quote:

Originally Posted by Monica12

OMG !!!! Is this really true????? cannot believe it.. I think I just got current.................Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!
Q, you were spot on... about the July 15 date in Sep...just that it happened in Oct instead......thanks so much for keeping my hopes alive :)
Soggadu..buddy...can you please change your avatar now and keep dancing ;0
Congrats Veni ! Teddy, hang in there...hope you get current very soon !

Monica,
Congratulation and Thank you
09-10-2011, 10:02 AM
pakkineni

Guys
Congratulations to all who are current. Came to know about this forum from a friend.

My PD is jul 31'07 (PWMB) , but now am in a situation and trying to find out what is the best option
- My h1b is going to expiry in dec'11 , Am working as a consultant (my employer is desi emp) for a client from last 3+ yrs and now the client is saying i have to take full time or leave , If i choose to leave i have to find another client ASAP and get the letter from the client to apply for visa extension in nov/dec this yr.
If i choose to take FT with client they will start GC only after 1yr . And being this close to my PD am not sure what to do.

any idea/suggestions? thank you.
09-10-2011, 10:19 AM
ssvp22

Quote:

Originally Posted by pakkineni

Guys
Congratulations to all who are current. Came to know about this forum from a friend.

My PD is jul 31'07 (PWMB) , but now am in a situation and trying to find out what is the best option
- My h1b is going to expiry in dec'11 , Am working as a consultant (my employer is desi emp) for a client from last 3+ yrs and now the client is saying i have to take full time or leave , If i choose to leave i have to find another client ASAP and get the letter from the client to apply for visa extension in nov/dec this yr.
If i choose to take FT with client they will start GC only after 1yr . And being this close to my PD am not sure what to do.

any idea/suggestions? thank you.

Better find another contract. There are no guarantees new company will file and if filed it will get approved. Trust what you have in hand.
09-10-2011, 10:42 AM
qesehmk

It seems the client cant afford consulting rate and wants to cut costs but likes you. Is there any way you can delay by at least 2 months .. that way at least you more than likely go past 485. I do think that there is a very good chance of another movement.

Visa extension you are going to need no matter what unfortunately. To go on EAD you need to have 485 filed at least for 6 months.

I agree w SSVP that you shouldn't trust the client to process GC after 1 yr. Tell them its so close that they should do it ASAP and you should have it in writing from them.

Quote:

Originally Posted by pakkineni

Guys
Congratulations to all who are current. Came to know about this forum from a friend.

My PD is jul 31'07 (PWMB) , but now am in a situation and trying to find out what is the best option
- My h1b is going to expiry in dec'11 , Am working as a consultant (my employer is desi emp) for a client from last 3+ yrs and now the client is saying i have to take full time or leave , If i choose to leave i have to find another client ASAP and get the letter from the client to apply for visa extension in nov/dec this yr.
If i choose to take FT with client they will start GC only after 1yr . And being this close to my PD am not sure what to do.

any idea/suggestions? thank you.
09-10-2011, 11:10 AM
rahil1

hey I am current

I am current!!!!

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