I want to go into hibernation and worry about EB2 dates back in June 2013. I seriously hope that the political climate changes soon and senate takes up HR 3012 - I know it is wishful thinking but can't resist :)
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I want to go into hibernation and worry about EB2 dates back in June 2013. I seriously hope that the political climate changes soon and senate takes up HR 3012 - I know it is wishful thinking but can't resist :)
If I were you, I'd focus the efforts on HR3012.Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
True that porting date can be anything. But still needs to be accounted for. And yes, Spec correctly pointed out about 6K porting (which is same as your orginal estimate). As we have moving numbers OR does not make sense for now. So lets discuss it when we have stable numbers. One thing seems for sure that OR will be >=1 for coming years(specially for years post 2009) ..assuming economy stays way it is. (plus higher porting)Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Guys,
Overall if we assume that, 2008 pd's have been given 6K visas (thats the centrist numbers between the 5K and the 7K). If we look at the inventory, it has 6K pending cases before 2008. If the 2008 pd's were not issued visas, then dates would have reached 01-Jan-2008 approx. Isn't this what the gurus on this forum always predicted. So imho, the inventory data shows nothing alarming, nor is the porting at unexpected levels. In fact i believe that the numbers in the above lines support what Q, Spec, Teddy and others have always predicted, that FY 2012 will end around 1st week of Jan or last week of Dec 2007. I guess we are just carried away by sweeping events and sweeping statements from Mr. CO.
As far as the inventory data is concerned, I had posted a slightly different type of calculation some time back. If we go along same lines again,
I am not discounting the 5% for tough cases here, because inventory will have everyone.
From April 15-Oct 30, 2007 (from trackitt and other sources, 65% of the filers have been approved, 35% remain in the system).
From Nov 1 - Dec 31, 2007 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From Jan 1 - March 15, 2008 (50% of filers have been approved, 50% remain in the system)
From March 16, 2008 - June 30, 2008 (12% of filers have been approved, 88% remain in the system)
From July 1, 2008 - Dec 30, 2008 (9% of filers have been approved, 91% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2009 - Dec 30, 2009 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)
From Jan 1, 2010 - Apr 30, 2010 (0% of filers have been approved, 100% remain in the system)
Now if we take 2007 to be the base year, lets say X applications per month. Based on trackitt, I would say 2008 is 0.84X applications per month. 2009 is 0.55X per month. 2010 is 0.6X.
In fact I used this 0.55X for 2009 from trackitt just based total registered trackitt users by year. Now if you look at the inventory released and add 6K to the 2008 inventory (already approved 6K cases), it comes to approx 15.1 (india) + 3.3 (China) + the 6K = 23.4. Lets say 0.84X=23.4K, it gives 0.55X = approx 15.3K and the inventory has approx 16K for EB2I-C for the year 2009. So trackitt seems to be doing ok in terms of ratios.
So now going back to pending inventory, we have
35% of 6.5 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2 months of 2007 (X) + 50% of 2.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 88% of 3.5 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 91% of 6 months of 2008 (0.83X) + 100% of 2009 (0.55X) + 100% of 4 months of 2010 ( 0.6X)
= approx 20.5 months of inventory on a 2007 scale density. The inventory for EB2I-C from April 2007 to April 2010 is 46431 (I omitted the inventory prior to that)
This means 20.5 months of 2007 = 46431, which means 2007 density is 2265 and everything else falls in place.
When I used this above logic and predicted some numbers using a 1800 density Spec and others pointed out that 1800 is a little low and now they are vindicated, 2265 seems about right and no better proof than the inventory data.
Now the effective density may be 2265*0.95 since 5% cases may have issues. so 2150 is effective 2007 density and 2150*0.83 = 1785 is the 2008 effective density.
Now similarly, 65% of 2007 from April 15 to Oct 30, 2007 (X) + 50% (2 months of X) + 50% of (2.5 months of 0.83X) + 12% of (3.5 months of 0.83X) + 9% of (6 months of 0.83X) + the 8K pending inventory have been cleared.
That is 7.05 months at 2007 density + 8K approved so far. = 7.05*2265+8000 = 23968 visas. I believe that so far USCIS has issued 23968 visas to EB2I-C this year and that falls pretty much in the middle of the 20-25K range of Sofad predicted by this forum long back.
Cheers and have a great weekend.
Murali,
That sounds great. Extending your analysis how many EB2 I-Cs are without visas in 2007 and 2008? And going by the density calculated and SOFAD expected when (which months in FY2013 or 14) do you see the end of 2008 and end of 2009?
Appreciate the analysis work!
Murali - very logical calculation. I will point out though that 2008 density is approx 2100 for EB2IC based on inventory data. I'm posting from my iPad right now so I don't have the excel file handy but IIRC, India was just shy of 2000 itself.
Just to clarify, when people here say SOFAD was 20k or something, they really mean that total no. of visas issued to EB2-IC were 20k right? Because SOFAD would actually be 20k-5.6k (quota for IC) = 14.4k, right?Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
abcx,Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
I think you are right. Here when we mean sofad we are talking of the default 5.6+whatever we get from others.
Vizcard,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Here is my reasoning. Though 6K visas could have been issued to 2008 folks, I still believe that the number is only 5K, not more than that. Except for the trackiit approx ratio factor, I have really not used 5 or 6K in my calculation.
So if you assume 5K visas have been given to 2008 folks, the inventory has 15136 for India and 3311 for China. So 2008 becomes 23447. That is 1953 per month. But when I had referred to effective density, I had derived it after a 5% deduction factor for difficult cases, so 1953 becomes 1856, which is really not very far from the 1785 I had calculated in my prior post.
Feel free to tear this logic apart.
Cheers
It makes sense except for a couple of things. These are not "mistakes" but a matter of opinion.
1. The difficult cases are not necessarily rejects. So if you assume that they will be addressed at some later point, the 5% of 2008 would roll in to 2009 and 5% of2007 would roll in to 2008. I do think you can calculate the % of rejects based on data. I know Spec has it somewhere. I just can't find it.
2. Also you describe a term "effective density" which really is different from the basic density. I can't disagree with the definition of effective density and would have to include a factor in there.
VizcardQuote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Same here, I am unable to find the stats for that. But even assuming something low of 2.5% rejection rate, I really doubt if 2008 has a effective density higher than 1900. It is probably 2000 in the 1st six months and 1800 afterwards.
I guess we may have some minor variations in our numbers, but overall we are pretty much in agreement. So here is my summary
FY 2012: EB2I-C got approx 24000 visas (includes 5.6K default + Excess from other categories).
Prior to 2008 we have 6K pending cases.
1-Jan-2008 to 30-Jun-2008, we have 6 months worth cases @ 2000 per month minus the 3.5K (of the 5k in 2008 who have been approved) = 8.5
1-July-2008 to 31-Dec-2008, we have 6 months worth cases @ 1800 per month (minus 1.5k visas given to 2nd half of 2008)= 9.3k visas.
So to clear entire 2008 in FY2013, we need 23.8K visas (from inventory data it is 24.3k, accounting for 2.5% rejection rate, it is approx 23.8k) which is almost the visas that were provided in FY 2012. Considering the fact that EB2-Row might have a cut-off date, leading to accumulation of cases going forward in 2013, I really doubt if we can get the same sofad next year, unless eb1 yields some more next year (which is possible since they dont have such a big backlog going into 2013 like they had in 2012). But conservatively I guess sofad for 2013 will be in around 18-20K. They will lead Fy2013 to clear cases until Sep 30, 2008.
In fact, on a personal note, I am not even sure about this because 2012 was not even supposed to yield 24K visas. I guess they crossed red lines. I am not sure how we can ever find out. So I dont even have full belief about my projections for 2013, that is based on 18-20K sofad. It might even be lesser.
feel free to boost eb2=ic's morale if my calcs are way too pessimistic :)
Friends, i got RFE on may 4th. Attorney is replying back. My amended 140 was approved in april.
Since i got the rfe, they r workng on my case. Does it mean i was assigned visa number and once we respnd rfe, i will get gc?
Pls see my details in signature. Thanks for a response.
Based on latest I485 Inventory (and also based few past I485 inventory) It looks like China has very very low demand compared to India for EB2 GCs, however still both countries has same cut of dates.??
If we see DHS(Department of homeland security) year book then, India is getting double employment based GCs compared to China, then why I-485 inventory of china is very low compared to India. As per below number China's inventory should be 50% compared to India but that's not the case. Inventory and actual GCs which are issued has huge difference for China, how much inventory is correct? Following are the number of GCs issues to India and China in last 10 year, which includes all priority (i.e EB1,EB2, EB3, EB4 and EB5). Does anyone has such number by priority for India? I took this number from DHS year book
Region and country of birth / Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total
Employment based preferences - India 39,010 42,885 20,560 38,443 47,705 17,169 28,703 25,577 20,264 31,118 311,434
Employment based preferences - China, People’s Republic 22,361 20,713 7,511 15,583 20,626 9,484 13,886 15,329 11,295 17,949 154,737
I have similar question, the total pending EB3-C is 2400. Does it mean it will be current (or cross July 2007 mark) in next 1 year ?Quote:
Originally Posted by gcprp2
I would think so Dec2007. Hope for the best :)Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcprp2
evoori and gcgrp - EB2C indeed has real low demand. However unfortunately they are still at that threshold where they will continue to have cutoff date. But if their demand drops below 2800 per year, they will become part of ROWEB2. I hope it does sometime soon. Otherwise EB2C's fate is tied to EB2I unfortunately.Quote:
Originally Posted by evoori
We COULD see Eb2C become current some time in FY2014. Based on the current inventory, I could see a scenario where come Oct 2012, their COD moves to August 2008 since their cumulative demand for that period (less some RFEs, etc.) is less than their annual allocation. But at that point, it will be at a standstill until the next fiscal year since all SO will come EB2I based on rules.
I do believe that EB2C will stick to the same COD as EB2I just for optics. That way they also will have SFM rather than big movement and then stand still which just looks bad.
Spectator, we are missing you and your analysis on demand data.
Gurus,
Any hopes on HR 3012 becoming LAW.
Share your thoughts ...
Cross Posting from Immi Voice:
http://****************.org/forum/3400391-post863.html
something should be happen in this month before 28 don't worry. hope +vely
Upcoming Senate Immigration- and Refugee-Related Legislative Floor Actions
By Micheal E. Hill
The following immigration- or refugee-related floor actions could occur in the coming weeks:
Full Senate Could Take Up Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Bill Containing Immigration Provisions: The full Senate could at any time take up S. 1301, the "Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act of 2011". The measure contains a number of provisions relating to alien trafficking victims.
The Senate Committee on the Judiciary approved its version of S. 1301 on October 13, 2011. It was formally reported to the full Senate on November 17, 2011.
At the time of this writing, no date for full Senate consideration of the measure had yet been set.
Full Senate Could Take Up Bill Revising Annual Per-Country Limits for Employment- and Family-Based Immigrant Visas: The full Senate could at any time take up H.R. 3012, the "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act of 2011. As passed by the House of Representatives, the measure would eliminate the annual per-country limitations for employment-based immigrants, and it would increase the annual per-country limitations for family-based immigant visas from 7.5 percent of the total number of available visas to 15 percent of the total number of available visas. The House of Representatives passed H.R. 3012 on November 26, 2011, by a vote of 389-15.
At the time of this writing, no date for either full Senate or Senate Judiciary Committee consideration of the measure had yet been set.
Can some one inform what will happen wth HR 3012 or point to a forum link?
Will this increase the annual quota from 140,000 or increase allocation to EB2?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ton_vj
What this does is - it institutes a FIFO (first in first out) system. This way all countries within a category will have same wait time.
EB2IC will be beneficiaries and EB2ROW will have to wait 18 months or more.
EB3IC will be beneficiary but the wait times will still be extraordinary compared to EB2.
While HR3012 is good - it is still not good enough for all immigrants. There needs to be push for another bill that aims at removing or at least doubling the overall quota for employment immigration.
This way the government can actually control immigration through clearance of labor rather than immigration quota. In other words - if Labor proves that there is a labor shortage then why there should be any immigration quota at all. Just my 2 cents. People who like advocacy would do well to think seriously about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
Analyzing EB-485 inventory (preliminary?) published by USCIS last week, looks like it is not a possibility in distant future!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
EB2IC together got ~48K pending applications (not counting any porting) with PD before 01MAY2010
Only if EB3ROW becomes current and EB3C demand remain less than its annual allowed numbers (~2,800)Quote:
Originally Posted by evoori
I would add one more point. There is a transition clause in there where in the first 2 (or 3?) years its not a perfect FIFO. It basically says that not more than 85% will be given to any one country. .. something like that.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
veni
we are talking about EB2C there. Not the entire EB2 category.
Evoori - I just realized you had asked about EB3C. So for EB3C, there is a lot more CP demand which together with 485 exceeds 2800 easily. Which is why difficult that EB3C will become current.Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Thanks.. I was totally missing the CP cases..Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Can we say that EB3C porters are victim here ? even though there is only 2400 EB3C pending 485, I doubt there will be to many porters from there but DOS made EB2C as U along with EB2I.. and now they also cannot port..
Life can sometimes be a b-----. I don't know what to say Evoori. It really sucks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by evoori
Based on the current demand data, any prediction on what the cutoff dates could be in Q1 2013 (Qct, Nov, Dec) for EB2I and EB2C? Assume there is or isn't QSP. It is possible to clear 1/2008 in Q1? Thanks!
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Even EB2C got 8,337 pending applications with PD before 01MAY2010, which is almost equal to three years regular allocation.
From the latest inventory report, I noticed that EB2 ROW is current in spite of having 11,189 case pending. So based on the same logic, USCIS does not need to clear all 39,577 pending EB2 I cases for the dates to start moving again. On the contrary, USCIS will always be required to keep more buffer of EB2I pending cases as compared to EB2 ROW cases in order to ensure no wastage of visas in any given year.
What do you guys think?
True, however they do have to clear all the cases in demand data for moving dates again beyond 1 May 2010. We will see, but majority of 39,577 pending cases will show in up demand data in few months.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
My point is that at any given point of time, there will always be 15,000 to 20,000 EB2 IC cases pending in the inventory. The inventory doesn't have to reach zero for dates to go beyond May 01, 2010. This level of inventory is absolutely necessary in order to take care of processing times, spill over, etc. For example, if we get 25,000 spill over next year (just an assumption), then at the end of the next year, USCIS/DOS will have to push the dates beyond 01 May 2010 in order to maintain an adequate level of inventory. In summary, I don't agree with the guys who think that it will take three years worth of spill over for the dates to go beyond 01 May 2010.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
Definition of cut-off date doesn't seem to support what you believe.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
The cut-off date for an oversubscribed category is the priority date of the first applicant who could not be reached within the numerical limits.
Let's assume, at some hypothetical point in future just 10k is remaining in demand data, rest is cleared. If no more numbers are available that FY CO can not push dates to generate inventory. that would mean issuing visa to those 10k people.
CO doesn't seem to care that much about inventory as people suggest. He didn't move dates until demand data was less than 1k. He knew moving cut-off dates by years would generate more than adequate inventory for current fiscal, still he kept feeding us "low demand data" ruse. By moving dates aggressively in 4-5 months, he was more than able to generate enough documentarily qualified applications to meet any surge in SOFADs.
CO wouldn't have to do these things if there were simply 2 different dates. One for assigning visa numbers to adjudicated applications and another for filing i-485. Without that he will have to keep playing this game.
Exactly, the CO will repeat the same thing time and again. The inventory doesn't have to and will never reach zero. No matter which pending inventory report you look at since last few years, you will always see pending EB2 IC inventory in the excess of 10,000-15,000. With the same logic, as soon as the current inventory goes back to around 15,000, we will see next movement beyond May 01, 2010.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
Since when this 140,000 quota is put in place? Is there any effort or or plan to introdce any bill in the past or future to increase?
I agree. With PERM, one should get automatic GC. This is what happens in other countries. Atleast with more strict UCIS control, misuse can be avoided.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Fundamentally, I don't disagree with what you posted. But I'd like to point out a couple of things.Quote:
Originally Posted by vedu
1. When you move dates, anyone in that time period is eligible for a GC if they are pre-adjudicated. Playing out your scenario where we get 25K SOFAD next year and we clear out 2008 - CO moves it to May 2010. In this situation, you could see cases where someone with Apr 2010 PD getting GC before Jan 2009. I know this is extreme but its possible. CO wants to avoid this and try to keep it FIFO thats the reason for moving it to Aug 2007 so that earlier PDs would get GC first ... otherwise he could have just left the dates at May 2010.
Secondly, Inventory = Demand + applications that haven't been processed. The key is the latter part of the equation. That part needs to be considered when moving dates.
When they moved dates this time, CO's explanation was that "demand was low" and not "inventory was low" implying that as long as there is demand, there is no immediate need to move dates. So history could repeat itself in terms of strategy.
There are other factors in play too - primarily workload and directions given. EB applications are only a portion of what they do. Given the timing, they may have to shift gears to reissuing EAD/APs and stop or slow down processing 485s. . The other possibility is USCIS might say that we have sufficient demand for the next year and half, so let's stop working on EB2IC for now and shift our focus to something else that's more immediate. I know if I was running the show, I would probably do this.
The other weird part is that, when PERMS are approved it is at a point in time usually 4-5 yrs before the actual GC is issued. The labor availability situation could change dramatically in those 4-5 yrs. In 2007 and most of 2008, the economy was good, unemployment was low, there was a genuine shortage of skilled labor. Now I don't know for sure. Maybe its still there but I guarantee that there is less shortage now than in 2007/2008.Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
All,
Here is new article on HR 3012. Nothing much new..
I was little confused with following quotes,
Gurus, please share your ideas !!
http://www.ilw.com/articles/2012,0515-lee.shtmQuote:
Senator Grassley seemed to be more amenable to Senator Schumer's bill although there were rumors that he wanted to place more safeguards on the Irish E-3 proposal.
It was finally rumored that Senator Schumer said that the Democrats were not holding up the bill, but rather Senator Brown who had boasted to his Irish constituents that the Irish visa bill was "about to pop."
Thank you
There are several unknowns but, considering the fact that both EB1 and EB2ROW may have a COD before end of FY2012 and last weeks EB-485 inventory data, i am not expecting EB2I move any further than 15AUG2007 before Q3 of FY 2013.Quote:
Originally Posted by ct06511
On the other hand EB2C could move to mid 2008 by Q2 of FY2013.
VeniQuote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Dont you think EB2I should move because of the 2800 that would be available starting Oct 12?
Regards
Nat
It won't move but probably brought back to Aug 2007 - the idea being that there will be sufficient porting numbers to absorb the 2800 visas.