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Spec maintains the SOFAD details here: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...FY2008-Onwards
You can get this information for going back several years from the USCIS Annual Visa Reports - http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tics_1476.html (FY2011 data is not fully uploaded yet).
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
There will be some - but considering the excitement, I doubt there will be very many. The new PWMBs. They might have a long wait ahead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
Oct 2013 is a good estimate for Mar 2009 PD - surely by end of FY2014 you should be able to apply (like me). If you are in a steady job with no immediate pressure to change job and no H1B issues then I think you can afford to wait. If you had applied, you could have married before the GC issue and it would have worked fine.
Quote:
Originally Posted by EB2-03252009
Let me ask this question -
what are the implications of a COD for Eb1 and Eb2ROW (assuming it happens) to QSP for FY13?
I expect it will all be cleared in Q1. So that would indicate no QSP for Q1 and possibly Q2 as well to account for the regular demand. Extending the logic, this will also force EAD/AP renewals en masse which will further take time away from pre-adjudication of cases.
Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Why will only 2008 get cleared by 2013? As well know there are unknown number of GC's given to 2008 and second half of 2007 filers. Do you think 2007 & 2008 filers will consume all of 2008 numbers?
Also, what makes you think 2009 and 2010 will get cleared in 2014? I agree that there was DD for the year 2009 but I don't see any DD for 2010.
Please advice.
Q. How do you know a lawyer is lying ?
A. His lips are moving :)
Same goes for real estate agents and politicians, just kidding :). We love and need them all.
He might not have been lying, a lot of people on this forum also had similar high expectations. Thanks to Spec for keeping to just the facts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Employment First: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit. --> 4-5k short?
Employment Second: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India. Such action may be required at any time during the next few months. -->5-6k short?
From CO's comments in VB it is clear that about 8-10k were given to to EB2IC this year which should have gone to EB1/EB2ROW. So next year it will be less 8-10k in SOFAD to EB2IC.
If similar trend continues with EB1/EB2ROW , EB2IC will get max of about 14-15K SOFAD including regular 5.6K.
With Porting happening at this pace which will add around 4-5k to inventory by the time CO starts SO next year which will reduce SOFAD to EB2IC to 10K.
Not to sound pessimistic just sharing thoughts based on latest developments and CO's comments about EB1/EB2ROW
because to clear 2008 India China, 24k visas are needed. Next year's SOFAD are believed to be around 20-25k.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
as some posters have noted, SOFAD could be lower if EB1 and EB2-ROW cut offs are established.
Sportsfan,Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
I had written this earlier and I still feel the same,
CO has made that statement simply because the demand data (not the inventory) shows around 16K pre-adjudicated cases which he feels will be cleared before spring 2013. For example, In the previous bulletin, his statement almost read as if he will bring back dates to May 2010 in Oct 2012 itself, simply becos the demand data at that time would have shown hardly anything. Now it shows 16K and hence he feels he can extract at least 16K visas for EB2I-C in 2013 and he will be able to put dates back at May 2010. But in the next few months, the number of pre-adjudicated cases will soar close to the pending inventory of 47K. Then around that time of the year, he will say in the visa bulletin, that dates will reach may 2010 sometime in 2014 or 2015.
One can always play devils advocate and say, doesn't CO know that cases are being pre-adjudicated and that more cases will show up. The reply would be, he does not care, he will just look at what the demand data says and pontificate based on that. In fact we should be happy that he is making the extra effort to put out some statements. As he had previously opined, by the summer of this year (so thats officially Sep 3 when summer ends) he will have a good idea about everything. And by that time pre-adjudications will be complete.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
The inventory data shows 24.5K IC cases for 2007 and 2008. If next year's SOFAD is between 20-25K (~15K across from EB2ROW + unknown from EB1/EB4/EB5), we will clear 2008 (given there will be some RFEs, rejects, etc.). Ofcourse the unknown is how many porters we will see along the way which will skew this math for the worse.Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
Also, 2009 shows about 16K right now. Assuming this only includes about 80% of the info, we should see atleast 20K 2009 applicants. I don't think we will hit 2010 until Q4 FY14 or Q1FY15.
Any idea why they pulled the bulletin? Mumbai consulate site still shows EB2I as U.
I know the alternate link was going to Sep2011 document.
Just curious.
Why does everyone think that the situation is bleak. I may be missing something very basic here. Can someone please point out the fallacy in my understanding :
I was going through the inventory report for EB2 All I-485 Pending. The total pending I-485's , for 2007,08,09,10 and 11, is only 6275+19142+17112+7017+2468 = 52014.
The total EB2 quota per year is around 40K. So, this demand should be cleared in around 1.5 yrs including EB2I 2009. So, they can start working on EB2I 2010 sometime in the beginning on 2014. Am I reading the inventory correctly ?
Cricfan, check the excel sheet again it is for 2007,08,09,10, 11, 12 is only 6275+19142+17112+7368+7017+2468 = approx 60K.Quote:
Originally Posted by cricfan
The other issue is that, eb2 row will get a good chunk of the 40K since they are not oversubscribed. EB2-IC will get cleared only slowly.
The other aspect is not all 2009 and obviously 2010 cases are in there.
what i don't get in the inventory data is there is 7400 cases pending for EB2ROW from 2010 & 2011. If they are current, why are there so many pending? And if they are pending, how many of these will get resolved?
Vizcard,Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Any reason why you say that. The inventory should have them, unless you mean that not everyone with pd's of 2009 and 2010 and have filed. But with this hyperactivity, I would say 90% of them would have filed, except those who want to wait until they get married. For assuming that guys with 2009 and 2010 pd's are likely to be at the right age now to marry, many might have held off.
Well my guess is that only about 80-85% of 2009 are filed. I don't have a basis for it.. just a gut feel. For 2010, obviously only those till May could have filed in the first place.Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
And as we progress through the rest of the FY 2012, there will be more EB2 -ROW applications coming in thereby stressing the demand even further, unless there is a cut off established for them.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Edit: That's probably what Murali83 meant by EB2 Row getting a good chunk.
I am a little disappointed with the inventory. DD certainly is lower than I'd anticipated. I had always estimated that I'd get my GC in May 2012, we are now past that. I don't have much to add here on the calculations, you've all got that covered. Let me instead, respond to an interesting post from abcx13.
Somehow, that thought brings a smile to my lips. In a small way, revenge for '61. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
I disagree. That isn't specific to India. We simply have more of an opportunity to emigrate than folks from these other countries, our advantages being freedom, education and English language skills.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
I supported Bush's war on Afghanistan too. That's because we were at the receiving end of Taliban's harboring of Islamic terrorists more than any other country. Our government didn't have the balls (or the means) to depose the Taliban, we were happy there was someone out there that was willing to do it for us. That was a very specific time. There is no organic pro-USA sentiment in India as there is in Australia, Israel or Ireland.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Of those reasons I mentioned earlier, freedom & English language skills. Also, a relative glut of internal opportunities (China Shining more so than India).Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Inventory data is not always perfect.Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
As Teddy noted:
Other factors are porting, people who didn't file their I-485s, people, who will get married, their spouses will follow-to-join etc, etc. And possibly CP cases as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
in Inventory FAQ
Q: What does this pending inventory report contain?
A: Although this pending inventory report is intended to provide information about demand for an immigrant visa and give potential employment-based immigrants an idea of where they stand in line for a visa, it does not include all potential employment-based immigrants. This report contains principal and dependent employment-based I-485s pending at USCIS Service Centers and Field Offices. It does not include cases pending consular processing at overseas posts. It also does not include individuals and their dependents with a pending or approved I-140 petition who have not yet filed an I-485 application or begun consular processing. Please note, therefore, that there are likely many individuals with an earlier priority date than your own who do not currently appear on the inventory, either because they are awaiting consular processing or because they have not filed an I-485.
Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory - Updated 05/03/2012 available now!
EB2I 2007 - 4,904
EB2I 2008 - 15,136
EB2I 2009 - 13,429
Total EB2I pending before 01/01/2010 = 34,665
Total EB2C pending before 01/01/2010 = 7,362
Total EB1 pending = 9,109
Total EB2ROW pending = 11,189
Based on current Inventory
1> Porting Estimation
Last Year may 2011 Report EB3 India --57,119
This Year May 2012 Report EB3 India --49,445
Reduction of 7,674 porting is around 5k maximum
2> EB2 India & China Inventory is 48K so it will take at least 2-3 years, FY 2012 quota is done.
Reasonable estimate: if we get average 15K spillover it takes 3 years FY13, FY14, FY15, after that still we have 10-15K pending on Oct 1st 2015 ( FY2016 Quota)
Due to porting cases. which may be similar to Oct 1st 2011 Scenario. In this case we expect again movement after 3.5 years[ After Oct 1st 2015].
Best Case Estimate: if we get average 25K spillover it takes 2 years FY13, FY14, after that still we have 10K pending on Oct 1st 2014 ( FY2015 Quota) Due to
porting cases. which may be similar to Oct 1st 2011 Scenario. In this case we expect again movement after 2.5 years[ After Oct 1st 2014].
Pessimistic Case: spill over of 10K due to no spill over from EB1, spill over is from EB2 ROW only
EB2I becomes similar to EB3 India.
48K with people missed will take 5 years
5 years porting cases at least 20K will be take another 2 years.
then we can see movement only after 7 years[ After Oct 1st 2019]. still we have 8k pending due to last 2 years spill over.
3>Demand destruction was mislead discussion for last 4-5 months
people who started GC process after 2008 are tough guys decided to pursue dreams in USA. so called OR factor should be 1.X, but 15% PERM cases are porting cases due to
this we may still see 1X of PERM data.
other reason for 1.X is 1x theory was based on pre Aug'2007 data, during that time frame EB2 cases are just above 50+% but now 70+% perm cases are EB2, so even if we
hit 1.4x it is normal[15% porting brings this to 1.2x] , as EB2 ratios is up by 40%
In earlier posts by diff experts of PERM analysis it was mentioned that post August 2007 to April 2010 PERM approval estimate was 68K cases.
48K Pending
15K Approved [ 2007 post august approvals 10K, 70% of post August 2007 15k cases, 2008 - 5K approvals, 20% of 2008 cases 27K]
5K-7k PWMB
--------
68K -70K IT IS DEMAND ACCELERATION
PERM DATA Comparision to Inventory
2007 post August PERM approvals 15K --> 10K Approved + 6K Inventory = 16k --- 1K may be from 2007 filings then also it is 1.X
2008 PERM approvals 27.7K --> 5K Approved + 18.5 Inventory + 3.5K PWMB = 27K --> close to 1
2009 PERM approvals 18.8K --> 16.4 Inventory + 3K PWMB = 19.4 --> 1.X
2010 PERM approvals 6K --> 6K Inventory + 1K PWMB = 7K ---> 1.X
when compared to PERM analysis it looks to me Inventory data is complete which can be used as base data for predictions.
4> for argument sake we assume USCIS move dates to raise money, but next they can do that with EB3 ROW in 2013, EB3 ROW is June 2006. by next year this time uscis is
close to clearing current EB3 ROW inventory. so Advancing EB2 I&C dates in 2013 will not happen.
looks to me
family based categories saw significant Advance movement in 2010
EB2 in 2011-2012
EB3 ROW - 2012-2013, certain to happen this
so above cycle repeats again from 2014????????????
this message is not to discurage hopefuls. If USCIS MOves PD's we all benefit but probability looks against us at this point of time.
Mavrick, going forward the unknown given to 2007,08 doesn't matter much
What matters is between the two there are 25K EB2IC. That is a reasonable SOFAD to look at in a given year. Now if SOFAD comes in at 30+K ... that means the dates should easily push into 2009 Q1 or Q2. So I wouldn't deny that might happen. It's just difficult to say with certainty what will happen 1 year from now.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
Thanks for speaking out unpalatable but realistic scenario.Quote:
Originally Posted by srividya
SOFADs in last 5 years have been 7k, 13k, 21.8k, 13.1k and 26.k. So current estimates for 20k-25k are on higher end. And if you give credencee to noticeable pattern, high SOFAD and low and SOFAD years tend to alternate. Could it be because high SOFAD year will mean more EB1 and EB2-ROW cases in pipeline resulting in low SOFAD next year?
Last time CO didn't open flood gates until demand dropped to 1k. Actually he can't intake more i-485 when demand is significant because that would mean handing out visa to anyone who is pre-adjudicated. so he is unlikely to move dates beyond 1 may 2010 until most of the demand is exhausted.
How does one know (after submitting 485) if the application has been pre-adjudicated or not? Is there any status change involved or text messages/emails sent?
PD date; 24 Mar 2008
Application recieved by USCIS 11th Jan
Service Center: Nebraska
I just called USCIS to open a service request since 4 months had passed from the time I filed the application. I was told that they are processing cases filed by 16th December 2011.
The information provided to me does not makes sense if the Inventory report and demand data are taken into account?
This leads me to make the following conclusions -
A) the numbers on the inventory report includes all applications and my application is in the inventory report numbers
B) my case has not made it into the demand data as yet.
Are these fair conclusions?
Cheers
Nat
They could be fair statements. jst not sure how one can arrive at them based on the info received.Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
First of all thank you for detailed post.Quote:
Originally Posted by srividya
While I disagree on several points in your post let me focus on couple. First, I think you are double counting PWMB PERMs... Spec's table has covered all the PERMS across the years (as in 2007 PD approved in lets say 2008). So if you take care of that lot of your calculations might change.
Lets come to demand destruction point. Basically it was a theory to arrive at a resoable 'projection' of figures without any concrete/official data points. It was an attempt to quantify the qualifying events happening around that time (2008/09 slowdown). So lets see how we did based on this theory. Few days back I arrived at a figure of 35K demand till end of 2009 with OR of 0.75. So if you add porting numbers we are quite close to that figure. In fact if you apply OR of 0.8 (as T always proposed) we are nearly on the mark. So our theory did not do that bad at all. (Please note thant I am not considering 2010 numbers because things were reasonably stable after that). So IMHO theory was not misleading at all.
Fianlly lets do some rough calculations based on traditional way and calculate PD2008 demand.
So 27700*0.7(EB2%)*0.8(PERM/I140 approval rate)*2.1(dependent factor) ~ 32.5K + 3 K(porting) = 35.5 K. Now compare this with actual reported demand of 23.5K and judge yourself if OR factor is 'so called' or reasonable.
I am going to wait till next inventory is out and see what data it has. Because as Spec pointed out several days back in reply to one of my posts that May inventory numbers will not be stable.
Very nice information
Can someone update this for last 10 years and/or from where the 140,000 quota/year started. It will give some idea about the distributions and allotment and who can change this 140,000/year quota? Is there any effort in the making?
Quote:
Originally Posted by PD2008AUG25
Trackitt has a bunch of February filers who have received rfe's from nsc. Doesn't that contradict their statement?Quote:
Originally Posted by natvyas
Sun my understanding of porting is that until the final step of interfiling the case remains classified as EB3 and as soon as the interfiling process is completed it becomes EB2. So potentially we may never see porting cases as part of the inventory which is published every 3 months. So if we assume the baseline as 2200 which is the OR of 1 the actual OR for 2008 would be between .85 to as much as .95.Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
The assumption of only 5K approvals from 2008 is fairly liberal it is actually more. Here is why there have been ~ 15K approvals in feb - mar 2012. In 2007 here are still 6K cases left now if we assume 2007 cases approved as say 8K then the 2007 density goes above 2200, however let’s settle for this. This gives at minimum 7K 2008 approvals.
What are your thoughts about 2009 figures from the inventory, to me that is still WIP.
:confused:Looke like something is brewing @ state dept. I still could not belive how could they come up with those crazy predictions. State dept might be fixing the crazy visa bulletin and come up with correct predictions.
Perhaps I'm still in stuck in disbelief zone or not ready to accept the truth.:confused:
If we expect 20-25K by October 2012-April 2013, then the inevtory would be reduced by April 2013 to about 15K then the dates may move atleast to one more year to have more inventory. Is this possible?
Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
We have to some way accout for the porting number otherwise OR is going to be always incorrect. For me the whole inventory is WIP for two reasons..a)for cases still being processed b) USCIS not be removing approved cases (as reported by Kanmani). Lets hope that we get near real numbers in next inveroty as things will be 'U' for a while.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
If we get a mid point of what you say 22.5K, we have 47.5 K now. So we will have 25K left. That is more than enuf for one more FY. So my guess is they wont move dates. beyond May 2010 until end of FY 2014.Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
Okay. Then it all might depend on how many are in adjudicated by October 2012. If this number is lower, then the PD may progress again.
Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
i think 22K SOFAD is aggressive at this time. Especially if there is a COD for EB1 and EB2ROW.Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
You can pretty sure that USCIS will pre-adjudicate at least 80% of the inventory by Oct 2012. People who filed in feb 2012 are already getting rfe's. They seem to be doing fine in terms of processing speed.Quote:
Originally Posted by bvsamrat
140,000 quota. Since when this had been in place and what efforts needed for this to be amended?
June Visa Bulletin is back again on State Department's Website.
Don't know why they took it down and what did they change really because the content is similar to the previous version released few days ago.
Sun you made a very significant point the next inventory should truly be the best snapshot either to remove the dead wood (Approved cases) or to document any additional cases (2009 and 2010).Quote:
Originally Posted by suninphx
The OR according to Spec's definition is purely a ratio of perm to 485 for the specific duration. Porting for that rest from EB3 to EB2 could happen for a range of people right from 2002 to say 2007 or 2010 wherever the dates are so porting should be handled separately. Since previous calculations wee able to narrow it to ~ 3K per annum I had suggested that we approximate it to 300 PM and make our model as 2.5K per month with the 300 porting coming from the full range. For OR purposes we should however just consider 2200. Noteworthy point is Spec had given a calculation few days back which showed porting as 6K.