Demand data is out. C-3200, I-4875.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html
An increase of just 75 for India.
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Demand data is out. C-3200, I-4875.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/statist...tats_4581.html
An increase of just 75 for India.
demand data for Oct VB
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf
The sqeuaky wheel gets the greese. (pardon any spelling mistakes!)
On another note - nobody would be threat to anybody if everybody focuses on the economic and social benefits of immigration.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Alright guys .... so here are two good things coming out of VB data.
1. EB2IC there will no retrogression. Why? Because there is 8K demand prior to Jan 2008. This is pretty much same as the existing total demand post 15th Apr 2007 (current EB2IC date). So VO is indicating that he will be allocate visas to all eligible EB2IC until 15th Apr 2007 by end of September (of course except for the unfortunate cases that have problems).
2. The EB5 quota for china next year is zero. It is a sad news for Chinese EB5 guys ... but good news for EB2IC since it virtually ensures that the EB5 spillover next year could be similar to this year. However there is a caveat here - EB5C can still get the spillover May 2012 onwards. But the idosyncracy that makes EB5C quota ZERO based on some chinese students protection act (why would any chinese stundets go for EB5 directly is beyond me and hence the reduction of EB5C to ZERO doesn't make sense) tells us that VO will not necessarily honor spillover to EB5C either. Making it ZERO shows clear bias against stopping chinese EB5 immigrants. Again ... bad news for them but good news for EB2IC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdsingh79
Sep EB2 total = 8,275Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Oct EB2 Total = 8350
A difference of 75. If X is net approvals it X+5. Not sure what is X, as they did not move in Sept X could be zero or very less may be like 500. So PWMB+Porting is not in thousands.
Q, point 2 is master catch, I missed it.
The recent push on EB5 might clash with policy on SO interpretation with regards to EB5C vis-a-vis the student protection act.
If it indeed true that the student act trumps SO interpret, this will be much needed help to the beleagured EB2IC community.
I think in bulletin next, EB2C will move by a week at least, and pass Teddy's litmus test.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
After seeing the text below from 2nd page of demand data. For some reason i think they will move the cut off dates for china and india to capture Future Demand. May be only my heart is working instead of a brain.
The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS, and such applicants would not be included in the above totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff dates do not apply. Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand. These totals only represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of the monthly cut-off dates.
Qesehmk, firstly thanks for this forum - keep up the good work.
WRT this demand data . I have 6/2010 as my PD , i now have some decisions to make - If i calculate it correct should i interpret ~8K demand EB2 India till 1/11. With the rate of available visa's per country in the 1st table ~2.8K. I assume i cannot expect EB2 india to become current in anytime 2012, correct? And i see I should can expect my PD to become current only somewhere in 2013 and +vely in 2014 timeline? Please help me , throw your thoughts.
You are right. This shows the fallacy of portings and PWMB. If the total in one month is 75. Then the full year number comes to 1K max. That is too low to believe. So lets make it 2-3K. That is more than enough to cover both of them in this economy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by needid
It is wishful thinking but not impossible. I do think that possibly exists - very small though.Quote:
Originally Posted by ravisekhar
I will say 2014 is more likely.Quote:
Originally Posted by qriousjunta
Ok, isn't SO from E1 -> E2 -> E3, and E2ROW -> E2IC.
Then we shudnt worry about e5C grabbing from above SO kitty neways is it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
Its is not about EB5 grabbing from other EBs. Its about EB5C being deprived which can potentially spill over to EB1->EB2->EB2IC.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200
There is about 2400 EB5 primary applicants in the Q right now. So if 65% are chinese, then that;s about 800 non-chinese which translates to approx 2-3K 2012 EB5 demand. So spillover may not necessarily increase. But it wont go to 2-3K as we were fearing.
Quote:
Originally Posted by veni001
Q,
If we assume that this demad data is from Apr 15 till Aug 2007,shouldn't the EB2 I be advancing little bit in this coming visa bulletin ?
My PD is Apr 16 2007.This is the reason for my wishful thinking :p
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
The sliver of EB2I quota is so thin that its entirely possible that the portinsg could consume all that quota. However it is equally possible that the dats could move upto 1-2 months through the year and a couple of weeks per quarter.
I am sorry I can't be more precise than that. I can imagine your anguish having missed it by 1 day.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GCFresher
Today is 2nd friday of the month and visa bulletin is due today. Since it is already 5 PM EST. So, No bulletin. can anyone guess what's causing the delay ?
hey guys... Why wouldnt/Shouldnt USCIS move the dates into 2008... Given the known demand to be at 8K ( i understand underlying PWMB is more, but it is still an unknown) and on average we have > 15K spillover from last 4 years... any comments?? why they shouldnt... also if you agree, when would be the right time for this move ? now or next quarter?
USCIS/DOS-->FED GOV-->Obama policy
Quote:
Originally Posted by soggadu
October visa bulletin is released.
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5560.html
VB is out and it is 7/15/2007!
It looks like Mr.Co is going to do quarter spillover this year!
It will require 4k-5k visas! It is definitely quarter spillover!
NIU wrote to the boss of Mr.CO and complained seriously. I think CO's boss told him something.
Quote:
Originally Posted by narendarrao
I am glad all bears are proved wrong... ok ...at least for this month :) and congrats to all who are current!!
This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current. QBF I hope they actually do quarterly spillover this time it will be a great step forward and ensure good orderly approvals.
I am pleasantly surprised with the Oct bulletin and am trying to reason the 3 months forward movement. There are probably 3 - 3.5K pending EB2-I applications up to 15th July'07 (plus there will be PWMBs); so they must be thinking of quarterly spillovers or to fill up the buffer of new applications starting with PWMBs.
Alright ... now this is CRAZY!!!!! CO has moved dates for October by 3 months thus releasing exactly 6K of quota. So without any delay lets first congratulate those who are current (including GCFresher and Monica)!
First I thought of taking the credit by saying "I told you "FIRST WEEK OF JULY" for September bulletin. And yes it is very enticing to take credit except for the fact that this movement occured for next year.
I do not know whether they will use 2011 numbers for October approvals or 2012 EB2IC quota. In the past they have used PY number for CY. So its possible. But whatever it is ... guys this takes it one step closer to do a BTM. Lets hope for one ASAP!!
Quote:
Originally Posted by narendarrao
Teddy,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Hopefully, you will be current in the next couple of bulletins as you missed the date by just 1 week. Good luck!
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5560.html
its here, july 15
this was unexpected!!!!!!!!!!!
definitely a great VB!
One NIU member kept writing to Mr.CO and his boss in the past several weeks to push for the quarter spillover.
I think from now on, their goal is to use 27% of annual quota in the first 3 quarters.
This NIU member said that VB may reach 2008 by December.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
You are verry close...good luck!!Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
I think it's possible VB will move again in the next VB and Dec VB.
It may retrogress in January 2012.
He did this to FB last year.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
That's what I am trying to reason out; is the movement up to 15th July, BTM itself? Because, I don't see enough visas and even with quarterly spillovers, it will be a tough call. We probably need to wait until Nov to see in which direction the visa dates are headed but, I assume almost all PWMBs will go into the pending pool in the next couple of months and PWMB will then probably be a thing of the past!Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
They may get 5-6k PWMB demand by moving PD to 7/15. Please correct me because I can't remember the data.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Alright .... so my fears are right:
This is from the bulletin
So basically this is his BTM for now. So that he can general enough demand from PWMBs. It would be interesting to see what he would do if the PWMBs are in a couple of thousands. I wish the BTM was at least till Dec 2007.Quote:
China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
I am pretty sure this is not end of it. They will try to get demand as much as possible for this quarter. Congrats to all those who became current.Quote:
Originally Posted by doctorp
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
Mexico: Current
Philippines: Current
hey Q,Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
what do you think about i/c having same cut off dates, also it is unprecedented to release this many visas in the 1st month itself. the PWMBS are going to take 4-6 months to become demand, so is he going to go by the number of 485 intakes?
this is crazy
also he has used up india + china annual supply in 1 month, + pwmb...
I like the following statement in the bulletin. Clearest sign of BTM:
Quote:
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.
It's very likely they will get PWMB into the pool in Q1.
However, I believe they will start approving all the guys before 7/15/2007. They will approve as much as they can.
The other thing is: One NIU member heard USCIS cleared a large percentage of the EB2 ROW/EB1 in August/September. There are not many pending EB2 ROW/EB1 any more.
I think Q1 will reach 27% of annual quota and that means they will approve around 38k in Q1. EB2 ROW and EB1 demand is not high and a large percentage of these numbers have to go to EB2 C&I.
Quote:
Originally Posted by pch053
Bulletin also warns about retrogression for eb2ic. But the same warning was there in last recent bulletins too. Willl see if this is the same rhetoric.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Congrats all who got current.
who and what is this NIU?
Quote:
Originally Posted by qblogfan
Mr.CO always put this kind of crap into VB. We saw this kind of words several times.
I suspect what happened is: Q4 of FY 2011 approved too much EB1/EB2 ROW. Now they don't have much demand from these folks. At the same time many folks sent him messages about the low consumption of visas in Q1 and Q2 of FY 2011. Now he wants to meet the 27% goal.
If we can see a large of number of approvals of EB2 C&I in next month, that means he changed his old method of visa assignment. In the past, he always assigned 2800/12 to every month. Apparently he changed his old method.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dec2007
NIU is a organization promoting legal immigration.
www.niunational.org
Many hard working guys are pushing CO and his boss.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cbpds1