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KD, I concede 25K estimate was way off. Now the 48K total even till May 2010 may include some ROW cases we are assuming that it’s purely EB2 I/C. Other than that this is really a huge roller coaster after the demand data. The number is literally quite huge.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
is that 5000 number from some valid source or the estimation based on trackitt data? even after adding 5000 the 2008 inventory number is considerably lower than 2007 which has same number of permsQuote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
It looks like demand destruction is more in 1st half of 2008 comparted to Sept-Dec2007 and 2nd half of 2008
KD I believe 5K 2008 folks greened is a liberal to fair assumption. This way the 2008 density is 2K per month. OR of 1 assumed 2200 per month Ball Park. So this way OR is still higher than 0.9. The OR assumption of 0.8 by me was probably the highest that anyone had suggested but the actual OR is definitely closer to 0.9. It does point to some demand destruction but it’s hardly anything.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
OKAY, Chill Buddy.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Actually OR is around 0.84 for PD2008 (assuming 5000 approvals). This also includes porting numbers. So if we take porting numbers out then OR is in range of what we were expecting.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Sportsfan, just see kd's view in common man's eyes. Mr.CO doesn't need to think or care about how much USCIS is short of funds. If Dos and uscis genuine intentions were not to get flooded , they must have stopped with 2008 numbers . Can't the USCIS look into the intake to see how many I-485 they received in 30 days and pass it to CO. They were bluffing/didn't care to see how many were actually received.
I agree with you kd, it is a wrong move indeed. unprofessional by all means !
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
mavrick - It was wrong on your part to call out the gurus..especially since u didn't read previous posts. Kd just pointed that out.Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Well... I think with all the discussions, I still stand by my original assessment of the following:
1. FY2012 - Finish 2007 PDs in case some numbers are available towards the end
2. FY2013 - Finish any 2007 overhang and take care of *most* of 2008
3. FY2014 - Complete any remaining 2008 along with 2009 filers
4. FY2015 - New intake, start working on 2010 PDs
All in all, we are still holding up the 5 year rule. So while things are bad, the talks of EB2I turning into EB3I are a bit premature IMHO.
People who should be really pissed are EB2C folks - they are completely getting messed up by EB2I. They are averaging 200-300 per month density - which is clearly a "C" worthy density - but their backlog will not get cleared for years because of the super high EB2I density.
June Visa Bulletin is out.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5712.html
Here is a comment.
Despite the retrogression of the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to August 15, 2007, demand for numbers by applicants with priority dates earlier than that date remained excessive. Such demand is primarily based on cases which had originally been filed with the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) for adjustment of status in the Employment Third preference category, and are now eligible to be upgraded to Employment Second preference status. The potential amount of such “upgrade” demand is not currently being reported, but it was evident that the continued availability of Employment Second preference numbers for countries other than China and India was being jeopardized. Therefore, it was necessary to make the China and India Employment Second preference category “Unavailable” in early April, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2012.
Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013.
USCIS has indicated that it will continue accepting China and India Employment Second preference I-485 filings during May, based on the originally announced May cut-off date.
E. EMPLOYMENT FIRST AND SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
Item F of the May Visa Bulletin (number 44) provided projections regarding visa availability in the coming months. Information received from the USCIS after the publication of that item requires an update in the projections for the Employment First and Second preference categories.
Employment First: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit.
Employment Second: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India. Such action may be required at any time during the next few months.
Please be advised that the above are only estimates for what could happen during the next few months based on applicant demand patterns experienced in recent months.
Thought i would try to summarize the calculations based on what everyone posted on last few pages and using Spec's terminology
----------------------------------------2008--------2009
Expected (TF=1,DD=0,OR=1)---------27,657------18,740
I-485 inventory - May 3, 2012--------18,447----- 16,342
GCs given out--------------------------5000-----------0
Total I485s filed----------------------23,447------16,342
Porting---------------------------------3000-------3000
OR (Total-Porting/Expected)--------------74%------71%
DD--------------------------------------26%-------29%
OR (Total/Expected)---------------------85%------ 87%
The situation overall looks quite bad. There are a total of 40,739 I485s for EB2-IC in the inventory for 2007, 2008 and 2009. Even with 30,000 SOFAD in 2013 chances of completing 2009 by Sep-2013 look bleak.
This is nice summary and puts lot of things in perspective. Thank you.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
pdf version : http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabull...n_June2012.pdfQuote:
Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes
Here EB2IC cutoff is 15APR07
- This is sept 2011 visa bulletinQuote:
Originally Posted by ismile
Visa bulletin:
So, with dates as 'U' are they trying to stop porting?
Q & Big T,
Waiting for ur analysis on 485 and visa bulletin report please.
And there'll probably be more porting as there is SFM in the dates. Add 3-5k for that.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
June Visa Bulletin - "Numbers will once again be available for China and India Employment Second preference cases beginning October 1, 2012 under the FY-2013 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013. "
I think our predictions are aligned with what CO is predicting until next Spring 2013
I am not sure if anyone here predicted that dates will reach May 2010 in spring 2013. CO has made that statement simply because the demand data (not the inventory) shows around 16K pre-adjudicated cases which he feels will be cleared before spring 2013. But in the next few months, the number of pre-adjudicated cases will soar close to the pending inventory of 47K. Then around that time of the year, he will say in the visa bulletin, that dates will reach may 2010 sometime in 2014 or 2015.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mavrick
Good point, I don't think they are trying to stop, but "U" makes porting not possible I guess.Quote:
Originally Posted by yank
Murali, I am in total agreement.Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
This statement is nothing but a hogwash from CO and should not be taken seriously unless some real action happens on ground which I think is highly unlikely. I would be more than happy if I would be proven wrong.
The bulletin is taken down from the website, also the pdf version
Friends,
Regardless what the bulletin says - and i haven't seen it yet - the inventory actually is a great news. It shows EB2I demand at around 1200 per month and EB2C at 300 per month. I think at that rate, it is absolutely possible to clear 2008 in 2013. And after that my guess is 2009 and 2010 will be cleared by 2014. Just a rough feeling.
For the rest of the year - the dates certainly aren't moving beyond 2007 - if at all - for EB2IC.
I will update this data in the SSFT tool as well to reflect the "demand destruction". And yes - although I was right on my advice to Teddy on demand data, I also admit that demad destruction is real. 2009 data proves that beyond doubt.
Q, i am missing the "good" part in the news. If you look at the inventory the ratio of overall I485s filed to expected I485s (based on PERM) for 2008 is 85% and for 2009 is 87%. See my post above. Either there is low demand destruction or even if we assume 20-25% DD it gets reduced by 12% or more porting. So overall for EB2-IC the inventory is only 15% lower than Spec's PERM numbers. Though i agree with you that 2008 can be cleared in 2013. But that is not a good news. Till few months back except for Spec almost everyone was expecting dates to reach Q1 or Q2 of 2008 by Sep-2012. Full credit goes to Spec in pointing out much ahead of time that EB2 will not reach 2008, EB2-IC can become unavailable and EB2-ROW can have a cut-off date. I guess the expectations now will become more realistic.
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Originally Posted by qesehmk
All,
I am getting to page not found on clicking on below link. And also the landing page it says June coming soon.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5712.html
Any good news on the way :)
IMHO, 20-25% demand destruction is not bad at all. Without that we were looking at much higher inventory for EB2IC.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
E. EMPLOYMENT FIRST AND SECOND PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY
" Item F of the May Visa Bulletin (number 44) provided projections regarding visa availability in the coming months. Information received from the USCIS after the publication of that item requires an update in the projections for the Employment First and Second preference categories.
Employment First: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date at the end of the fiscal year in an effort to limit number use within the annual numerical limit.
Employment Second: Based on the current rate of demand, it may be necessary to establish a cut-off date for this category for all countries other than China and India. Such action may be required at any time during the next few months."
I don't believe this prediction, is Travel dept is saying all 80K visas for EB1 and EB2 are completely exhausted and no more visas available for next 6 months and yet they are promising Eb2 IC with PD's March 2010 will get visas in 2013. There is something wrong with this prediction or with the numbers they are giving to us.
Inventory says that less than 20K visas are issued for EB1 Worldwide and we know that 15K to 20K issued for Indians/Chinese.
I wish I had my second grade math book to send it to Travel dept.
First of all, there is no "travel dept". Its the Department of State. Secondly, there was no promise made related to EB2IC with PDs up to March 2010 getting visas in 2013. CO said "best efforts will be made".Quote:
I don't believe this prediction, is Travel dept is saying all 80K visas for EB1 and EB2 are completely exhausted and no more visas available for next 6 months and yet they are promising Eb2 IC with PD's March 2010 will get visas in 2013. There is something wrong with this prediction or with the numbers they are giving to us.
You are missing good part because it's really a great news!
And here is why - normal EB2IC rate is 2.5K per month. We were assuming (I in particular) 1600-2000. While the 2008 rate indeed turned out that much (if you add 5-8K already approved), the 2009 rate is 1.3K. That is 50% demand destruction. Now understand that this works in two ways - a) it reduces EB2IC competing for GCs. b) it also means less EB2ROW and less EB1 - albeit less NOT by 50%. But still.
Going back to prediction of Q1 2008 - if you consider the 5-8K approved for 2008, that is more that sufficient to decimate the entire EB2IC inventory for 2007. That would've brought the dates into Q1 2008. Little did we know that they would approve 2008 over 2007.
Hope this helps.
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Originally Posted by GhostWriter
I agree with vizcard. There is no guarantee that dates will be back to 1 May, 2010 after Spring 2013. Here is what the visa bulletin said,Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
Every effort will be made to return the China and India Employment Second preference cut-off date to the May 1, 2010 date which had been reached in April 2012. Readers should be advised that it is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before spring 2013.
I think this statement is just a hogwash from CO. We all know that logically moving dates up to May 1, 2010 in FY2013 (forget Spring 2013) is not going to be possible unless they create huge artificial backlogs for other categories like EB1, EB2ROW by delaying processing, increasing PERM audits, issuing more RFEs. So I think we should not take this statement seriously because come Spring, 2013, CO will say,
"The demand is huge, visa numbers are not available and dates could not be moved up to May 1, 2010. Every efforts will be made to move the dates to previous cut-off date of May 1, 2010. It is impossible to accurately estimate how long that may take, but current indications are that it would definitely not occur before Spring 2014. And come Spring 2014, this will be repeated and dates will not move before Spring 2015."
Q, i disagree.
For 2008 inventory shows 18,447 for EB2-IC. Add 5000 already given GCs and you get 23,447 i.e. 1954 per month. Expected from PERM filings was 27,657
For 2009 inventory shows 16,342 for EB2-IC which is 1362 per month (as you say) BUT expected from PERM filings was 18,740. No one expected or assumed 2500 per month for 2009.
Where is 50% DD ??. In my opinion the inventory and the visa bulletin confirmed the grim expectations built over last few days and killed any hope for positive news in the short to medium term. EB2-ROW can have cut-off date, EB1 can have cut-off date implying a heavy stress on SOFAD for 2013 and on top of that a 485 inventory which is just 15% less than PERM filings (implying OR of 0.85-0.9) which will only get worse with more porting whenever EB2-I becomes available again. There are 41K I-485s for 2007, 2008 and 2009 which is a heavy inventory.
The only bright side is the confusing statement in the visa bulletin which still promises to bring the dates back to May-2010 as soon as possible and only gives a lower limit of spring 2013 as the estimate for as soon as possible.
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Originally Posted by qesehmk
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Q, I admit that my assessment based on the demand data was way off, 2009 and 2010 were definitely work in progress from the demand data perspective because of not being preadjudicated I had honestly did not expect the actual inventory to be double fully knowing that 2009 and 2010 were WIP.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Let me know your thoughts on the following.
- When the Jan inventory was released the 2008 filing in Dec was not reported correctly.
- Similarly 2009 and 2010 filing has happened in March and April. For the moment just consider 2009, many people would have filed later in March.
- It is therefore a possibility that even the 2009 inventory is not complete it is still Work in progress.
- Fundamentally the perm situation became really bad starting mid 2008, so people who are earlier in this group i.e. mid 2008 are more likely to have suffered more because they had a longer delay in their per cases then someone in Dec 2009.
- When the Jan inventory was released there was a great sense of urgency to work towards a accurate inventory, however by Apr and May the realization had dawned that inventory is already enough and resources may therefore have been allocated to other things like the approvals forEB2 ROW and EB1 cases.
- I believe we need 1 more inventory to see the real 2009 and 2010 inventory the numbers will likely increase.
I feel there is no reason why the demand destruction in 2009 should be that extreme it should pretty much like 2008.
Friends I know that if this is true it is bad news, please don't crucify me just thought about this possibility. Let me know your thoughts.
Ghost - I think grim or great depends on what your original view was. My view has always centered around 2500 secular demand. I thought of 2000 realistically and 1600 as most optimistic projection for 2008 onwards demand.
So 2008 lived up to realistic and 2009 has beat the optimistic projection. Which why I called it great news (considering the double benefit of the DD as explained earlier).
However I think we can agree one thing that the good/badness of the news depends on what you originally thought how much the demand was going to be.
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Originally Posted by GhostWriter
Q, I would stay away from 2009. Lets look at 2008 however I would tend to agree with Ghostwriter. The 5K figure for 2008 approvals suggested by KD is on the liberal side whereas 8K would probably be more conservative.Quote:
Originally Posted by GhostWriter
While having the entire demand destruction discussion with Suninphx we had agreed on a watered down version of 2500 as 2200 + 300 porting.
So now lets assume 2200 as our baseline. The OR comes to 0.84 if we assume 5K approvals however consider 8K approvals OR becomes 0.95 which is hardly any demand destruction. Based on the first half of 2007 OR has been 1 that is the baseline.
Mumbai consulate updated the priority dates.
http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html
T,Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
With assumed density of 2500/month our expectation was 30k for 2008 (including porting). If we assume 5k approvals then we have 23.k in inventory. So that's OR of .75 to .8. Isn't that what we were expecting. Am I missing something?
Not sure Teddy. I think 2009 numbers shouldnt move. I have some pointers to believe what I believe. But not worthwhile sharing at this time. So lets just say its a gut feel.Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu
Out of curiosity, how much SOFAD has EB2-IC received every year in the last 4-5 years? Anyone know?
I am copying this info from some other website, I am not sure how accurate it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
In FY2005 EB2-IC received 26k visas in total.
In FY2006 EB2-IC received 7k visas in total.
In FY2007 EB2-IC received 13k visas in total.
In FY2008 EB2-IC received 21.8k visas in total.
In FY2009 EB2-IC received 13.1k visas in total.
In FY2010 EB2-IC received 26.5k visas in total.
My priority date is March 2009, and I haven't applied AP/EAD/I-485 as I am not married yet. Do you guys think I made a mistake? and also will my date be current by Oct 2013? or how early will I be able to apply? Thanks!
Does anyone think there could be some people with PD before May 2010 and haven't filed i-485? They won't show up in demand data or inventory. Any guesses on their numbers?