EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

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Originally Posted by usvisas

Again AceMan - can't agree more with what you said. I am just looking for accurate numbers from Guru's and not predictions. I have looked and been loooking at earlier posts from Spec and others (mentioned below), but can't seem to figure out pending (applied + non-applied) numbers for EB2I and EB3I until mid-2010. I mentioned 2010 end to keep it simple as I could cut it by 50% as I do realize we may not want to drill down too deep.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...tions)/page224
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showt...d-Calculations

Yourself, Spec, Q and many others have helped a lot sharing facts and opinions!!!!

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I know it was mentioned a couple of times in the posts before so I will reiterate that: no one has the exact and accurate numbers after they stopped publishing the inventory data after July 2018. This was done deliberately to keep the water as muddled as possible so that there is no accountability and they can simply say, "Oh the demand for that category is high, so we had to hold back the dates" and not have to provide any numbers to back that up. It's that and incompetence as they are not able to reconcile all the upgrades and downgrades that have happened in the past few years. You would think a search by A-number which remains constant would sort that out, but you have to remember you are dealing with numskulls.

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Originally Posted by Turbulent_Dragonfly

I know it was mentioned a couple of times in the posts before so I will reiterate that: no one has the exact and accurate numbers after they stopped publishing the inventory data after July 2018. This was done deliberately to keep the water as muddled as possible so that there is no accountability and they can simply say, "Oh the demand for that category is high, so we had to hold back the dates" and not have to provide any numbers to back that up. It's that and incompetence as they are not able to reconcile all the upgrades and downgrades that have happened in the past few years. You would think a search by A-number which remains constant would sort that out, but you have to remember you are dealing with numskulls.

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Just to add more context and clarity to this.. TD correct me if I interpreted something wrong
whatever educated guess Q, Spec and others are doing is by using other inventory like PERM approvals, people reporting on other forums and the baseline data last published data.
Here comes the tricky part no one can accurately count how many are net new and how many are upgrades/downgrades.

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Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09

Just to add more context and clarity to this.. TD correct me if I interpreted something wrong
whatever educated guess Q, Spec and others are doing is by using other inventory like PERM approvals, people reporting on other forums and the baseline data last published data.
Here comes the tricky part no one can accurately count how many are net new and how many are upgrades/downgrades.

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Yeah the upgrades/downgrades have really screwed the pooch for EB2-3/I. All the PERM approvals can provide is a number to add to the backlog but it is difficult to calculate who is not in the backlog any longer based on already obtaining the GC through other means or abandoning it all together.

I had upgraded to EB2 but when EB3 DF became current took it and got EAD, now I am current. However EB2 line still be counting me

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Originally Posted by h1bh1bh1b

I had upgraded to EB2 but when EB3 DF became current took it and got EAD, now I am current. However EB2 line still be counting me

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Exactly these type of situations in thousands is exploited by the two agencies to work against the movement of dates.
This could be addressed by a small fix in the system to keep it a little transparent but they wouldn't do.

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal :p

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Originally Posted by monsieur

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal :p

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I echo with the last statement.
My paralegal at Fragomen said no need of PERM, direct I-140 and no premium processing for I-140. Also as there is risk and cost associated, it has to be approved by the employer which was not approved by my employer.

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Originally Posted by monsieur

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal :p

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Thank you. this response was really helpful

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Originally Posted by EB2IndSep09

If you have not applied AOS and employer supports it makes perfect sense to me to downgrade.

why? My PD is EB2 Sept 2009 as one might figure from my UName
I reached out to my employer's immigration team in 2018 to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 which has been pushed back and also given a free piece of advise that historically EB2 moves faster than EB3.
we are in 2020 (2 years down the line) my PD is current in EB3 and I am yet to file AOS.

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Thank you for the perspective! appreciate it

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Originally Posted by monsieur

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal :p

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I have couple of my colleagues who are mid 2010 and have successfully downported to EB3 without a new perm.

My employer is doing it, my PD is Dec 2009 and my manager approved it but deciding if I should do it?

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Originally Posted by shaisri

Thank you. this response was really helpful

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Anytime as sharing is caring.

Another factors which gives me peace of mind

- EB2-ROW is current, so high chances of horizontal spillover
- Potential vertical spillover IF EB1-IC are current
- Known EB2-I inventory till Mid-2010, instead of uncharted EB3-I numbers

For now, I have decided to stay in EB2-I lane as I am fine getting GC few months/year late rather than taking risk with current admin. Any way even after GC I will be waking up and going to current job. ;)

Again not discouraging you to downport or stay where your. Your situation maybe different so just gather info and do whats GOOD for YOU.

Just curious, what is your PD @monsieur

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Originally Posted by monsieur

Anytime as sharing is caring.

Another factors which gives me peace of mind

- EB2-ROW is current, so high chances of horizontal spillover
- Potential vertical spillover IF EB1-IC are current
- Known EB2-I inventory till Mid-2010, instead of uncharted EB3-I numbers

For now, I have decided to stay in EB2-I lane as I am fine getting GC few months/year late rather than taking risk with current admin. Any way even after GC I will be waking up and going to current job. ;)

Again not discouraging you to downport or stay where your. Your situation maybe different so just gather info and do whats GOOD for YOU.

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I agree down porting to EB3 is risky given that EB3 is not going to get any spill down from EB2, while as EB2-ROW is current and very good chance that EB1 will be current. So, there is a high chance that there will be spill down from EB1 and spillover from ROW for EB2-I. Just my 2cents.

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Originally Posted by getsaby

Just curious, what is your PD @monsieur

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Mine is Sep 2010

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Originally Posted by srisri

I have couple of my colleagues who are mid 2010 and have successfully downported to EB3 without a new perm.

My employer is doing it, my PD is Dec 2009 and my manager approved it but deciding if I should do it?

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Your PD is close to mine. You are in EB2 too. Looks like you missed the 2012/2015 bus and don't have an EAD+AP. If that is the case, it is OK to down-port so that you can get an EAD+AP. What you are looking for is the immediate 180 days AOS pending clock that gives AC21 job-portability protections. The DF dates will not prevent the age-out of minor. If you already have an EAD, then it is not wise to down port unless you are sure that the FA dates are current and will stay current till GC is adjudicated (4 to 6 months).

It is my expectation that EB3I dates will continue to keep moving faster than EB2I as long as Indian consulates are closed. Last year about 1600/2800 EB3I was due to CP demand from outside of USA. Those people in India on EB3 never got a chance to file for CP because of COVID situation. The moment Consulates open, the EB3I dates will stall and most likely retrogress. That is what you need to watch out for.

QUOTE=srisri;65694]I have couple of my colleagues who are mid 2010 and have successfully downported to EB3 without a new perm.

My employer is doing it, my PD is Dec 2009 and my manager approved it but deciding if I should do it?[/QUOTE]




I would wait until end of this yrs and decide on ur downgrade for Dec 2009

@monsieur don’t need to down port now. When your PD is current you can file i140 for eb3 and Aos concurrently . At least that is what I read. Read October i485 2018 thread in tract it.. couple of people mentioned that

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Originally Posted by idliman

Your PD is close to mine. You are in EB2 too. Looks like you missed the 2012/2015 bus and don't have an EAD+AP. If that is the case, it is OK to down-port so that you can get an EAD+AP. What you are looking for is the immediate 180 days AOS pending clock that gives AC21 job-portability protections. The DF dates will not prevent the age-out of minor. If you already have an EAD, then it is not wise to down port unless you are sure that the FA dates are current and will stay current till GC is adjudicated (4 to 6 months).

It is my expectation that EB3I dates will continue to keep moving faster than EB2I as long as Indian consulates are closed. Last year about 1600/2800 EB3I was due to CP demand from outside of USA. Those people in India on EB3 never got a chance to file for CP because of COVID situation. The moment Consulates open, the EB3I dates will stall and most likely retrogress. That is what you need to watch out for.

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I have applied for AOS in Feb 2012. Hence undecided if I should down port. Will have to make a decision before the holiday season kicks in if I have to take the advantage of downport.

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Originally Posted by srisri

I have applied for AOS in Feb 2012. Hence undecided if I should down port. Will have to make a decision before the holiday season kicks in if I have to take the advantage of downport.

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If you are not looking for EAD, then either a) Do a completely new PERM in EB3 if you had used AC21 portability. b) Do a EB3 using the existing PERM (original copy) if you are with the same employer. I will not touch existing EB2 as there is a risk of denial with down-porting. My advice is either do a completely new PERM or use original PERM copy for EB3 or stay put in EB2.

There are many here who think it is not worthwhile to port. Wait and watch movement till December. Hopefully, you will be current then.

Disclaimer: I am not an attorney. So please DYOR.

We clearly do not know how the dates are going to move next year because of various factors (USCIS issues, Zero visibility to pending inventory etc.). I wanted to ask the experts what do you see as a realistic spillover numbers for EB2 (horizontal + vertical) next year, based on 110K FB visas being available? I was thinking of a realistic estimate of 40K. Wanted to see what the experts think on this issue?

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Originally Posted by vsivarama

We clearly do not know how the dates are going to move next year because of various factors (USCIS issues, Zero visibility to pending inventory etc.). I wanted to ask the experts what do you see as a realistic spillover numbers for EB2 (horizontal + vertical) next year, based on 110K FB visas being available? I was thinking of a realistic estimate of 40K. Wanted to see what the experts think on this issue?

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Right now it is not even clear if the 16K from the FB that was counted in this year has been allocated and used! And predicting dates based on the 40K or so when those numbers are not even considered until Q4, and with a big question mark on USCIS and DOS having the intention to use and allocated all the numbers sincerely any predictions right now are up in the air. Best keep it grounded and consider we will get the 2800 allocated fully and figure the dates for those. And then if USCIS and DOS performance is good next Jun then we can start predicting. Right now we are not even moving the dates to get the 485 application counts.

I am specifically asking the experts from staying away from making any predictions. Would like to know the likely spillover numbers for both EB2 and EB3 as it may give some perspective to people wanting to downgrade. Like I said it's up to the agencies to whether apply or not to apply spill over numbers. But what it cannot do is honor spillover for EB3 and NOT for EB2 or any other categories.

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Originally Posted by h1bh1bh1b

@monsieur don’t need to down port now. When your PD is current you can file i140 for eb3 and Aos concurrently . At least that is what I read. Read October i485 2018 thread in tract it.. couple of people mentioned that

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Thanks but as I said Fragomen paralegal flat out denied my downporting without new perm so my firm will not proceed. I will just wait it out and see. As I haven't seen any USCIS publication stating ohterwise I don't think so I will be able to convince my firm to pressure Fragomen. Internal staff treat Fragomen as SME and will not go against it.

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Originally Posted by monsieur

Thanks but as I said Fragomen paralegal flat out denied my downporting without new perm so my firm will not proceed. I will just wait it out and see. As I haven't seen any USCIS publication stating ohterwise I don't think so I will be able to convince my firm to pressure Fragomen. Internal staff treat Fragomen as SME and will not go against it.

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Unless you retain your own lawyer, you should always expect the lawyer to do what is best in the interest of their client i.e. the company in this case. In other words - Fragomen can't be trusted ... but you may or may not have a choice here.

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Originally Posted by qesehmk

Unless you retain your own lawyer, you should always expect the lawyer to do what is best in the interest of their client i.e. the company in this case. In other words - Fragomen can't be trusted ... but you may or may not have a choice here.

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15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.

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Congratulations !!! Have a Green life.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.

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Congrats my friend.

Congrats gcvijay! What was your PD?

Visa Category:
EB2
Country of Chargeability:
India
Visa Priority Date:
07/02/2009

Actually I downgraded and applied it in EB3 last year and completed my interview Dec 2019.

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Originally Posted by getsaby

Visa Category:
EB2
Country of Chargeability:
India
Visa Priority Date:
07/02/2009

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Question
Will new EO signed on August 3, will it not affect new perm applications and I 140 for labor market?
So if anyone wants to upgrade or downgrade will it scrutinize them more and increase the risk of denial?

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.

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Congratulations gcvijay. We celebrate your freedom.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

Actually I downgraded and applied it in EB3 last year and completed my interview Dec 2019.

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Congrats Vijay. Your case gives some hope for me. I am just 7 days away (7/9) . But my Interview was cancelled due to Pandemic. I haven't seen any change to my status for rescheduling.

Did any body in the forum got GC without interview recently?

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Originally Posted by IamGSN

Congrats Vijay. Your case gives some hope for me. I am just 7 days away (7/9) . But my Interview was cancelled due to Pandemic. I haven't seen any change to my status for rescheduling.

Did any body in the forum got GC without interview recently?

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Trackitt does refer a few eb cases that were approved without interview. So it looks like that is happening in certain cases.

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Originally Posted by longwaitgigu

Question
Will new EO signed on August 3, will it not affect new perm applications and I 140 for labor market?
So if anyone wants to upgrade or downgrade will it scrutinize them more and increase the risk of denial?

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I believe we will need to wait to see how this is applied. It's a bit early to say for sure, but I don't think anyone can rule out a possible impact at the moment.

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Originally Posted by gcvijay

15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.

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Congrats Mate!

Do you think folks who replied in 2018 Medical RFE, specifically EB2 PD between Jul 09 to Dec 09 will get another medical RFE?

USCIS received my medical on Aug, 15th 2018, my PD EB2-I, 10/19/2009.

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Originally Posted by getsaby

Do you think folks who replied in 2018 Medical RFE, specifically EB2 PD between Jul 09 to Dec 09 will get another medical RFE?

USCIS received my medical on Aug, 15th 2018, my PD EB2-I, 10/19/2009.

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What matters is the doctors signature date and not the received date. Not sure if this date is strictly enforced.

Not sure if your impression is correct. I had the impression that USCIS considers medicals valid for 2 years from the date they receive it. Doctor's sig is valid for some time (don't remember exactly - 6 months?) for USCIS to receive it - but once USCIS receives it, the two year clock starts.

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Originally Posted by need4speed

What matters is the doctors signature date and not the received date. Not sure if this date is strictly enforced.

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Originally Posted by imdeng

Not sure if your impression is correct. I had the impression that USCIS considers medicals valid for 2 years from the date they receive it. Doctor's sig is valid for some time (don't remember exactly - 6 months?) for USCIS to receive it - but once USCIS receives it, the two year clock starts.

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It used to be that the validity was 1 year from USCIS receipt, as long as the Civil Surgeon's signature was not more than a year old.

Under the new system, the Civil Surgeon's signature must not be more than 60 days old and validity is 2 years from the Civil Surgeon's signature date.

The full explanation is contained in the USCIS Policy Manual - Volume 8 - Chapter 4

Here's an excerpt:

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4. Validity Period of Form I-693 (Including Use of Prior Versions)

Evidentiary Value

A person seeking an immigration benefit and who is subject to the health-related grounds of inadmissibility must establish that he or she is not inadmissible on health-related grounds. [20] In general, those applying for immigration benefits while in the United States must use Form I-693 to show they are free from any conditions that would render them inadmissible under the health-related grounds.

An officer may determine that the applicant has met the burden of proof required to establish that he or she is free from a medical condition that would render the applicant inadmissible on health-related grounds if all of the following criteria are met:

• A USCIS-designated civil surgeon performed the immigration medical examination in accordance with HHS regulations;
• The civil surgeon and the applicant properly completed the current version of Form I-693;
• The Form I-693 that the applicant submitted is signed by a civil surgeon no more than 60 days before the date the applicant filed an application for the underlying immigration benefit;
• The Form I-693 establishes that the applicant does not have a Class A medical condition and has complied with the vaccination requirements or is granted a waiver; and
• USCIS issues a decision on the underlying immigration benefit application no more than 2 years after the date the civil surgeon signed Form I-693.

In general, if any one of the above criteria is not met, the applicant has not met the burden of proof required to establish that he or she is free of a medical condition that would render the applicant inadmissible to the United States on health-related grounds. In this case, the officer should follow standard operating procedures regarding issuance of a denial or an RFE or Notice of Intent to Deny (NOID) to address the deficiency.

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