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Sure - but USCIS has gone into super-secret-mode. Every piece if data is coming late - we still don't have the annual report for FY2011 that finished 7 months back. Who knows when (and if) they will publish the next inventory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
looks like they have been publishing inventory report in May since last 2 years. we can hope for one by this month's end.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Sportsfan,
Hate to debate this again. But i guess we agree to disagree. One of purposes of retrogression is to ensure that gc's are issued with some order to them. I believe USCIS will pre-adjudicate all 2008 and most of the 2009 cases well before september 2012. There is no reason for them to push deep and then retrogress again. They will only do what you have suggested if they have pre-adjudicated cases randomly and a whole lot of cases are pending. Looking at the demand data they seem pretty fast and orderly. So i am not going to guess on possible cod's. I would just say that all cases filed until march 30 will be pre- adjudicated by sep 30.
On a side note, if my LUD is not changing, does that mean they have not touched my file.
Cheers
Q, I have been part of that school of thought that did believe that 35K should be the total outstanding number till May 2010. However looking at the demand data being just at 15K odd where I believe that most of 2008 cases atleast 80% of the pending ones are represented I have doubts that the number would actually increase to 35K. The 2009 and 2010 numbers are being under-reported for sure. 2009 is expected to be a weak year so the expected addition for all deficiencies would be around 10K - 12K range which makes it 27K this is significantly short of 35K. The last inventory was way off I hope this one is better. Even for the pre-207 preadjudicated inventory did we see a significant difference between the inventory being at 14K while demand data being just 8.5K, possibly they have not been cleaning the denials, withdrawals, porting cases from there very efficiently. Also 2009 is almost like pristine zone once the inventory is out we can compute demand destruction OR from there.Quote:
Originally Posted by qesehmk
Exactly Sportsfan
Just one more thing. I dont quite understand the need to retogress. I think they would just stall at a date which matches lets say 20k visas. So my point is if they have 40 k predadjudicated, they move to a date which matches 20 k and then stop there. They would only retrogress if they moved beyond the line of 20k or if they have not preadjudicated properly and still have some pending before the date to which they moved or they have heavy porting.
On a side note, when you say 7.5k 2008, isn't that just india. Should n't we add china as well?
Sun, I partially agree with your numbers ( Still hanging with my original but slightly different OR of .6 :))
Sports,Congratulations! on your EAD/AP approval .
In my opinion NSC is still processing their final batch 2008 numbers (not RFE cases), both TSC and NSC have 2008 RFE cases pending.
As I said earlier TSC has started 2009 cases from the 2nd week of April and still processing .
DOS is currently issuing visa numbers to USCIS and other consular posts through online process. The IO could get a visa number by just entering his ID and few details online. For the ROW countries they are always within their per country limit and always current and there is no reason any single country could get 2800 in a single day . But in the case of India during these intake seasons, if the PD is current, there is a possibility that India may be allotted visas in thousands within a short span of time. This could be one of the reasons for retrogression.
Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory published as of may 3rd.....if anyone already posted this let me know will remove the link
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Jesus, that was unexpected! And it's an Excel file too. Wasn't somebody calling USCIS tardy upthread?Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
they absolutely had to retrogress.
1. They couldn't give anyone and everyone up to May 2010 GCs. The numbers just don't support it.
2. Moving it to Aug 2007 is reasonable as they want to make sure that any remaining visas go to the earliest PDs - most likely the ones who have been waiting since the beginning of time.
3. Now that they have a better read on numbers, they can start moving in a more systematic form.
PS: I don't want to derail the thread from calculation but I think if someone ports from EB3 to EB2, they shouldn't be allowed to retain their PDs. The criteria really should be the date someone with appropriate qualifications applies in a particular category. If person A was qualified for EB2 in 2008, he/ she should have preference over someone who qualified for EB2 in 2010. To apply it to the current scenario, a Aug 14, 2007 EB3 applicant who ported over to EB2 in 2011 (i.e. earned EB2 credentials in 2011) will be ahead of a Aug 15, 2007 EB2 applicant. How does that make sense?
I'm going to get off my soap box now .. .back to your regularly scheduled programming.
Good God Almighty! Just yesterday I was cribbing about the slow release of info from USCIS - and here comes the inventory! Awesome. Thanks Mesan.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mesan123
God Almighty!
EB2IC inventory is 39,577 + 8337 = 47,914!!!!
That is a HUGE number!
Teddy, you are not right in your estimate of 25K.
Sun, look at the 2009 number, its exact as you predicted!!!! God, the porting is at your speed.
Let's hope that these numbers are more or less final and won't be revised upwards.Quote:
Originally Posted by sportsfan33
Really, I'm not sure if the 08 numbers are that bad. If you look at the I485 data, there's about 18.5k pending I485s for that year. Maybe another 4-5k have already been greened. That's 22.5k over 27.7k PERMs. Assuming a normal OR is 1 (TR = 1, DD = 0), this reflects demand destruction of (1 - 22.5/27.7) = ~20%. I think we were guessing 25% DD so we're not that far off.
I think the DD numbers are slightly higher for 2009 - closer to our 25% estimate.
At this point, China is only being held up by India and would have become current really soon if India didn't eat all the spillover. I'm not sure if Indians have been particularly rapacious with loopholes in filing fradulent/enevelope pushing labor certs, but we really get f**ked with this immigration system. Somehow I get the feeling that part of the blame lies with us for the Indian mentality of loving America and everybody and their mother wanting to come here. I'm not trying to be racist against my own people, but it's true that we love America more than others - I remember this Economist survey where after the Iraq and Afghan wars, Bush had a really high popularity rating in India even though his numbers had really dropped in other countries. I know India will send a larger number of immgrants than Luxembourg on account of the pop size, but China isn't flooding the system with a larger population so I wonder why India is so special...
Gurus,
One question. Does this pending inventory include both pre-adjudicated and non pre adjudicated cases or just the ones that are not pre adjudicated.
Thanks
Murali
Pretty sure both.Quote:
Originally Posted by murali83
Update: The calculations below are wrong - I am using EB2IC PERM numbers and only EB2I 485s. Once I update the numbers, the OR for 2009 turns out to be 0.89 - and considering that this is the lower bound, we may have very little to no demand destruction in 2009. :-(
First attack at OR numbers using 2009 PERM and Inventory numbers for EB2I. Using monthly numbers, it does seem like a ratio of 0.71 for 2009 holds - all monthly values are close to that (range of 0.63 to 0.80).
Caveat - this is the lower bound. 2008 PD folks who have not applied yet will increase this number as they get into the queue. Still - we finally have some solid numbers to get a hold of the extent of demand destruction.
Mon I485 - PERM -- OR
Jan 1,301 2,073 0.63
Feb 1,260 1,771 0.71
Mar 1,384 1,801 0.77
Apr 1,207 1,846 0.65
May 1,042 1,457 0.72
Jun 1,069 1,468 0.73
Jul 0,984 1,290 0.76
Aug 0,801 1,247 0.64
Sep 1,058 1,492 0.71
Oct 1,143 1,502 0.76
Nov 0,993 1,360 0.73
Dec 1,187 1,482 0.80
Tot 13,429 18,789 0.71
I just realized it's actually worse than that because your PERM numbers are IC but the I485 numbers are I only. I made the same mistake earlier. So DD is nowhere close to 25%. Closer to 15%.Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
June 2012 Visa Bulletin:
Just now called 202 663 1541 : EB2 I&C - Unavailable.
Overall I don't think the inventory numbers are too alarming. Only thing that stands out is the remaining overhang in 2007 of 4.9K - that is way above expectation. 2008 numbers are below expectations (less than 1.5K/month density we were expecting) and so are 2009 numbers (a couple months are less than 1K/month - that had not happened in a long while).
Based on this, we can reasonably expect FY2013 to take care of all 2007 and most of 2008 cases. FY2014 will then hit any leftover 2008, 2009 and 2010 till Apr - prompting a fresh intake in late FY2014.
EB2C will not be eating any spillover going forward since its regular-quota-movement will be more than enough to cover any potential spillover-fueled-movement of EB2I.
Just taking a swing at 2008 density calculations here (IC). Something doesn't seem right. Gurus - please correct me here.
2008 demand = 9375 (approved pending visa)
2008 inventory = 18447 (still in pre-decision phases)
Already greened ~5000 (already approved)
Total 485s = 32822
per month = 32822/12 = 2735.
For India only Total 485s = 26686
per month = 2224
Inventory includes demand so you are double counting. Subtract that out and density is 1953/month. I think imdeng's 1.5k/month is off because he was ignoring already greened numbers.Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
Imdeng,Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng
Just a couple of things. We have always talked of density in eb2 i-c terms. In 2008 assuming 50% approval on jan to mar 15 and 11% for the rest of the year, they have approx 9.87 months of unapproved inventory. Eb2i-c Unapproved in 2008 is 18447. Divide that by 9.87 and you will get 1870 per month. Similarly 2009 will give you 1300 ( 16342/12 full months of unapproved apps).
Inventory includes the demand. So the total is 18447 + 5000 = 23447Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
23447/12 = 1953 per month
Vizcard, I think inventory includes demand data, so you are double counting demand data here
Quote:
Originally Posted by vizcard
the demand destruction for 2008 is huge, looking at the inventory numbers 2009 is almost on par with 2008. I know we have seen reasonable amount of approvals from 2008 but it's not looking like 2007 at all. (The perm numbers for 2007 and 2008 are almost same, Veni where are you buddy? please shed some light)
Quote:
Originally Posted by raj888
Quote:
Originally Posted by kd2008
Well then that explains it. Still 2K/month is fairly significant.Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
PS: its stupid that they have the same number included in two metrics. They really need to think in terms of venn diagrams :)
The inventory is really scary. I guess it would take years to clear. EB2 has become the new EB3!! Time for AC 21
You are right. I re-did the numbers and the new OR is 0.89 for the year :-(
Quote:
Originally Posted by abcx13
Not sure why you say that, I think the wait is still on the order of 4-5 years. Correction though: EB2-I has become the new EB3. Everybody else is doing just fine...poor China will never become current because of India.Quote:
Originally Posted by asankaran
Gurus,
Is there any way to find out if a case has been pre-adjudicated and added to the demand?
Cheers
Murali
On trackitt there are 2500 cases for EB2I since Oct VB according to Spec's data. So trackitt's load factor is still 5 to 6% and not higher as we thought it might be.
In light of inventory data, CO's comments make no sense. How can he move dates back to 2010 when he will have 30k pre-adjudicated cases waiting for visa number by October.
EB1 march inventory made hit the panic button. EB1 data is kind of strange, when we see last year OCT 2011 data, for Aug 2011 the number is 588, in may 2012 for Aug 2011 it is 769. Not sure why the number increased after 6 months, when the number should had decreased.
This raises another question are these numbers are 100% or not?:confused:
There is an xls file here updated May 3 2012,
what inventory is this. This is USCIS so is it all applicants(primary and dependents).
the demand data if i m not wrong has only primary numbers correct?
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/usc...00082ca60aRCRD
Look at the tab for india.
Those high numbers are because of slow processing of EB1 and Eb2-ROW.Quote:
Originally Posted by redsox2009
A step took by CIS to get more spillover to EB2-I and C.. a way to reduce the backlog..
Correct me if I'm wrong - How did all the gurus miss this document. This doc has all the numbers that we were looking for.Quote:
Originally Posted by Pdmar08
Nobody missed the document, okay? It is dated May 3, 2012 and was published today! We have discussed it in the past few pages.
EB2IC inventory shows 1500 per month in 2008 and 1400 in 2009 which is way below 2500 (even 2000), I don't understand the concern by some members
KNowing what I know now from the pending inventory of May 2012, I feel angry that CO did not make EB2IC current as he should have. People with pre-May 2010 PDs got a handsome bonus in getting their EAD/APs so quickly. Folks after that are going to rot for 3 to 4 yrs now.